The Energy-WaterNexus on Cyprus Manfred A. LangeEnergy, Environment and Water Research Center The Cyprus Institute Workshop: Energy Issues Facing Cyprus Nicosia, 14. Oct. 2011 Manfred A. Lange • 10/21/2011 • 1
Outline• Background: The Nexus concept• The Current Energy Sector• The Current Water Sector• The Energy-Water Nexus• Future Perspectives: Climate Change• Adaptation and Mitigation Measures• Conclusions
Background: The Nexus Concept1)• There are rapidly increasing multiple pressures on the water, energy and food security, including: – Growing demands on resources, and resource degradation – Urbanization – Globalization – Climate change and the need for adaptation and mitigation• The interactions and feedbacks between these pressures drive social- ecological systems at all scales towards critical thresholds and constitute the Water-Energy-Food Nexus• To meet the nexus challenges a sustainability transition is required• Conventional sectoral approaches and optimization of single goals will have to be replaced by co-management and co-governance of water-, energy-, food- (and environmental) security• In this paper we focus on Cyprus and on the Water-Energy Nexus 1) Based on: H. Hoff: Scientific Background Paper for the Bonn 2011 Conference: The Water, Energy and Food Security Nexus; DRAFT; pers. com.
The Current Energy Sector• Cyprus energy sector heavily dependent on hydrocarbon imports• Only 5% of the demand is satisfied through renewables (solar-thermal water heating)• Energy consumption: transport dominates• CO2 emissions of 8.403 Mill. t in 2008 Main sources of energy in Cyprus; Kassini, 2006• well above EU allotment – National Allocation Plan, 2007: 6.252 Mill. t of CO2 – total greenhouse gas emissions: 10.026 Mill. t• Cyprus greenhouse gas emission reduction goals: – Fraction of RES: 13% (by 2020) – Energy efficiency enhancement: 10% (by 2016) Final energy consumption in Cyprus; after Kassini, 2006 4
The Current Energy Sector• Electricity capacity of three power stations (2008): 930 MW; production: 5 224 GWh; CO2 emissions of 4.196 Mill. t• Three combined-cycle-gas-turbine (CCGT) -power plants (capacity 220 MW) are/will be commissioned in 2009, 2011, 2013 resp.• Electricity consumption – Steady increase since 1966 – Summer and winter maxima – Domestic and commercial sectors dominate Monthly maximum electricity demand (1997 to 2006; top) and increase in mean monthly electricity consumption in Cyprus (1966-2009; bottom); source: TSO (2010)Mean Sectoral Electricity Consumption in percent for1975-2009 ; source: Statistical Services Cyprus_2010 5
The Current Water Sector• Reduced precipitation leads to low storage in dams water scarcity• Water Consumption in Cyprus – Agriculture dominates, domestic consumption is close second Storage: 131 M m3 on 13.10.2011 Sectoral water demand in Cyprus for 2011; source: WDD, 2010 Water storage in dams for 1988-2010; source: Water Development Department, 2011 6
The Current Water Sector• Domestic Water Supply Government Water Works – Domestic Supply Sources 1991-2010; source: Water Development Department, 2010 7
The Current Water Sector• Current seawater desalination: – Water produced, 47,8 Mm3 = 66% of total demand (72,3 Mm3 ) – Total cost of desalination (1997-2007): M€ 218 – Annual electricity consumption: 214 GWh/year – Combined contribution to national CO2 emissions (2009): 4,15%• Additional seawater desalination: – Annually (max.): 44.5 Mm3 to be produced with conventional energy – Total (existing + new): 92,3 Mm3 per year 128 % of current demand Plant Min. Yearly Cost Cost Prod.(Mm3) (M€) (€/m3) Dhekelia 19,8 16,2 0,82 Larnaca 21,4 22,3 1,08 Moni 6,6 9,0 1,39 Total/Mean 47,8 47,5 1,01 Source: Manoli, 2010)
The Water-Energy Nexus• In addressing the Water-Energy Nexus, the following issues should be considered: – Coolant water in electricity power plants – Electrical energy for seawater desalination – Energy for water pumping in large-scale distribution/irrigation distribution networks• Cooling for the electric power stations – 6m3/s for each 100 MW of power generated 1,32×109m3/year for 18h/day, 365 days – Sea water and water cooled condensers are utilized for cooling – Water is heated to 7oC above intake temperatures – However, due to outlet culvert design and enhanced mixing at outlet points water temperatures only slightly above ambient seawater temperatures – While the impact of coolant water release on near-coastal ecosystems is currently ill-defined, it may be minimal as a result of the described precautions taken
The Water-Energy Nexus• Electrical energy for seawater desalination – Electricity need for seawater desalination: 4,5 kWh/m3 – At current production, total electricity consumption: 214 GWh/year – For future expansion to annually 92,3 Mm3 of desalinated seawater: 415,4 GWh/year 8% of the total electricity consumption for 2008 – Enhanced emissions of CO2 are to be expected• Energy for water transport and distribution – Currently no exact figures available – In the United States of America, 4% of the nation’s electricity use goes towards moving and treating water and wastewater – If we adopt this number for Cyprus 180 MWh/a of electricity will be expanded – This corresponds to 3.5% of the total electricity consumption for 2008 – Enhanced emissions of CO2 are to be expected
Future Perspectives: Climate Change • Mean summer (JJA) maximum temperatures Reference Case ∆Tmax: ~1 to 3oC1980 -1999 2000 - 2019 ∆Tmax: ~2 to 5oC ∆Tmax: ~3 to 8oC2040 - 2059 2080 - 2099 Projections of future climate conditions as derived from the PRECIS 11 regional climate model; source: Hadjinicolaou, pers. comm.
Future Perspectives: Climate Change• Climate extremes: hot days, warm nights, droughts• Less winter rain TodayQuantity 2021-2050 2071-2100 (1976-2000)Days with Tmax > 35oC 60 85 (+42%) 120 (+100%)Tropical Nights with Tmin > 25oC 75 120 (+60%) 165 (+120%)Dry spells: consecutive days with 100 108 (+8%) 120 (+20%)precipitation < 1 mm ∆Pw ≈ -25% for 2021-2050 ∆Pw ≈ -40% for 2071-2100 Average change in total winter precipitation (Pw ) relative to reference; source: Hadjinicolaou, pers. comm.
Impacts: Increasing Energy Needs• Additional energy needed for the space cooling and desalination considered for Cyprus are: ~670 000 MWh (15.4%) of the total electricity consumption for 2005 (TSO, 2010)• Estimate of increasing energy needs conservative• It does not take into considerations other sectors of the economy, which might similarly require additional energy/electricity under conditions of a warmer and drier climate• Examples include: – Transport sector: sustained air-conditioning in cars higher fuel consumption increasing energy consumption – Services sector: increasing demand for air-conditioning and for additional potable water derived from seawater desalination increasing energy/electricity consumption• We expect an increase in energy demand of ~20 to 30% of the total electricity consumption in Cyprus for the period 2021-2050 relative to the 1961-1990 reference period
Adaptation/Mitigation: CSP-DSW• Drawbacks of Seawater Desalination – Relatively energy-intensive – Use of conventional fuels: significant share of electricity consumption, noticeable CO2 emission• Remedies – Switch from oil- to natural-gas fired power plants – Import of water by ship • In 2008: 8 Mm3 shipped from Greece; cost ∼€42 M (∼€5/m3) – Use of renewable energy sources • Solar energy seems most effective • Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) holds significant promise 1 900 kWh/m2 14
Adaptation/Mitigation: CSP-DSW• CSP Plants represent proven technology• Due to heat storage 24h/7 d operation possible• Modest land requirement: ≈25 km2 to satisfy all Cypriot electricity needs CSP Plant, Kramer Junction,, CA, USA CSP Plant, Kramer Junction,, CA, USA Schematic representation and flow diagram of a Typical CSP power plant (Source: F. Morse, pers. comm.) 15
Adaptation/Mitigation: CSP-DSW Multi-Effect Desalination• Co-Generation of Electricity &Water through CSP: how?• Replace Cooling System by MED 16
Conclusions• Current energy/electricity sector dominated by fossil fuel consumption dependence on energy markets; CO2 emissions• Climate projections: hot summers, increasing drought• Impacts: increasing need for energy (20-30% of current consumption) and water (desalination)• These challenges, constituting the Water-Energy Nexus on Cyprus; they have to be addressed holistically• Solutions have to be found that strive to co-manage energy and water security• Adaptation/Mitigation strategies – Co-generation of electricity and desalinated seawater through employment of concentrating solar power• This technology has the potential to address the Water-Energy Nexus on Cyprus adequately• It should be pursued vigorously