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Impact of climate change on rice production

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Impact of climate change on rice production

  1. 1. Seminar II on Impact of climate change on sustainable production and productivity of rice Shantappa Duttarganvi II year Ph.D Department of Agronomy
  2. 2. Sequence of presentation… Introduction Impact of climate change on rice Strategies for mitigation Conclusion Future line of work
  3. 3. INTRODUCTION
  4. 4. Global warming  Global warming refers to an increase in average global temperature which in turn causes climate change  The average global air temperature increased by 0.74 ± 0.18 °C (1.33 ± 0.32 °F) by the end of 2005  The global temperatures increases to 1.8 – 6.4 °C by 2100 AD  Sea levell going raise 0.18 to 0.59 mt IPCC, 2009
  5. 5. Variations of the Earth's surface temperature IPCC, 2009 for the past 140 years
  6. 6. GISStemperature2011with Colorbar_WMV V9.wmv
  7. 7. Projected future regional patterns of warming based on the emissions scenarios NASA
  8. 8. IPCC, 2007
  9. 9. Why GHG makes a big effect on climate…?  Part of the infrared waves is trapped by the atmosphere making the earth warm  Because of too much GHGs that thicken the atmosphere
  10. 10. Carbon –dioxide emission from different countries Country Metric tons USA 20.01 Europe 9.40 Japan 9.87 China 3.60 Russia 11.71 India 1.02 World average 4.25 IPCC,2009
  11. 11. Percentage change in sector emissions in developed and developing country groups, 1990 to 2020 UNEP, 2006
  12. 12. Climate change  Changes in measures of temperature and rainfall  It may be cooling or warming of climate Climate change may result from  Natural factors  Natural processes within the climate system  Human activities
  13. 13. Green house gases for Climate change  Carbon Di-oxide  Methane  Halocarbons – CFCs & HFCs (Montreal protocol)  N2O  Water vapour
  14. 14. Share of different agriculture sectors in climate change National Communication on Climate Change, 2004
  15. 15. Agriculture as GHG contributor  Potential contributor it accounts for 15%  Major contributing activities - Deforestation - Burning of crop residue - Raising large herd of cattle’s and other ruminants - N-fertilization
  16. 16. Evidences of Climate Change Physical evidence Biological evidence 1. Rise in atmospheric temp and CO2 level 1. Early blossoming of trees 1. Depletion in rainfall 2. Appearance of grasses in Antartica 2. Shifting and shrinking of cooling period 3. Changing cropping pattern 3. Changing pattern of monsoon 4. Occurrence of natural disaster Kurukshetra, 2008
  17. 17. Future impacts of climate change in India  Decreased snow cower  Erratic monsoon with serious effects on rain-fed agriculture  Drop in wheat production by 4-5 mt with 10 C raise in temperature  Raising sea level  Increased frequency and intensity of floods
  18. 18. Earthquake in Gujrat-2001 Mumbai Flood-2005 Tsunami in South East-Asia
  19. 19. Muir Glacier, Alaska, August 13, 1941 Muir Glacier, Alaska, August 31, 2004 IPCC
  20. 20. Impact of sea level rise IPCC, 2009
  21. 21.  > 25m children will be malnourished  Irrigated wheat yield will decreased by 30%  Irrigated rice yield 15%  Climate change will increase prices in 2050 by 90% for wheat, 12% for rice and 35% for maize At least US$7 billion a year are necessary to improve agricultural productivity to prevent adverse effects on children. IFPRI
  22. 22. Impact of climate change on rice production
  23. 23. Impact of climate change on Rice production An increase of 2 - 4oC results to 15% reduction in yields Rainfed and drought prone areas-17 to 40% Water scarcity affects 23mha in Assia Additional CO2 can benefit crops, this effect was nullified by an increase of temperature
  24. 24. Critical temperatures for the development of rice plant at different growth stages Critical temperature (0C) Growth stages Low High Optimum 16-19 45 18-40 Seedling emergence 12 35 25-30 Rooting 16 35 25-28 Leaf elongation 7-12 45 31 Tillering 9-16 33 25-31 15 - - 15-20 30 - Anthesis 22 35-36 30-33 Ripening 12-18 >30 20-29 Germination Initiation of panicle Panicle differentiation Nguyen, 2006
  25. 25. Contd… Symptoms of heat stress in rice Growth stage Symptoms Vegetative White leaf tip, chlorotic & white bands and specks Reproductive stage Reduce spikelet number and sterility Ripening Reduced grain filling
  26. 26. Rice crop response to variations in temperature Yield and yield attributes Climate Tempera Crop Grain Grains Grains Biomass scenarios ture duration yield (m-2) (ear-1) (kg ha-1) change (days) (kg ha-1) Straw (kg ha -1) (% deviation over normal scenario) Extreme warm Greater warm Moderate warm Slight warm Normal warm +2.0 0C -3.3 -8.4 -8.4 -12.4 -7.4 -6.4 +1.5 0C -2.6 -8.2 -8.2 -8.3 -6.5 -4.7 +1.0 0C -2.0 -4.9 -4.9 -6.1 -3.6 -2.2 +0.5 0C -1.3 -3.2 -3.2 -2.4 -1.3 -0.7 Normal 153 6136 18846 494 10220 4943 CERES rice model Ludhiana, Punjab Mathauda et al., 2000
  27. 27. Impact of climate change on duration, days to anthesis and yield of rice crop at different locations Location Economic Days to Year Duration yield anthesis (kg ha-1) 2000 Tiruvallur 2020 2050 2080 2000 Cuddalore 2020 2050 2080 2000 Dharmapuri 2020 2050 2080 INFOCROP model Tamilnadu 110 108 107 104 112 111 109 107 113 110 106 103 87 87 86 84 87 86 84 84 92 90 88 87 5236 4956 4634 3925 4921 4765 3256 3198 5518 5342 4861 4197 Decreases of economic yield from 2000 (%) 5.3 6.5 15.3 3.2 31.7 1.8 3.2 9.0 13.7 Srivani et al., 2007
  28. 28. Effect of climate change on LAI (a) and DMP (b) in rice Srivani et al., 2007
  29. 29. Schematic representation of potential effects of rise in CO2 concentrations and temperature on rice and its growing environment Wassmann et al., 2009
  30. 30. Predicted yield of rice (kg ha -1) selected locations for the years 2008, 2030,2050 and 2070 Station name % change % change % change 2008 2030 2050 2070 in yield for in yield in yield for 2030 for 2050 2070 Bogra 5714 5119 4070 Dinajpur 6848 4824 4364 Mymensingh 5995 5275 4455 Tangail 5487 5160 3874 Jessore 5571 4432 4583 Satkhira 4700 4364 3603 Barisal 6043 4006 3972 Madaripur 4582 4017 3647 Chandpur 5975 5455 4039 Comilla 6115 5987 4456 Avg. Change in yield Bangladesh 2036 2692 2739 1938 1997 2066 2091 2186 2772 3075 PRECIS model -10.8 -29.6 -12.0 -5.95 -20.4 -7.14 -33.7 -12.3 -8.70 -2.09 11 -29.1 -36.3 -25.7 -29.4 -17.7 -23.3 -34.3 -20.4 -32.4 -27.1 21 -64.5 -60.7 -54.3 -64.7 -64.2 -56.0 -65.4 -52.3 -53.6 -49.7 54 Basak et al., 2010
  31. 31. Predicted yield of BR3 rice in Barisal and Dhinajpur under different atmospheric CO2 concentrations Basak et al., 2010
  32. 32. Yield at 10 C rise in temperature and different CO2 concentrations Yield at concentration temperature 340ppm CO2 and rise in Sanjay et al., 2009
  33. 33. Sensitivity of simulated yield of rice to temperature, CO2 concentration and solar radiation Max Temp Min Temp CO2 Conc. (0 C) (0 C) (ppm) 0a +4 -4 +4 -4 0 0 0 +4 +4 -4 -4 -4 a 0 +4 -4 +4 -4 0 0 0 +4 +4 -4 -4 -4 335 335 335 +20 +20 +20 335 335 335 335 335 335 +20 Solar radiation (MJ/m2/d) 0 0 0 0 0 0 +1 -1 +1 -1 +1 -1 +1 Simulated yield (kg/ha) 8391 5517 9842 5604 9853 8439 8590 8179 5717 5369 9877 9433 9583 Yield change (%) 100 66 117 67 117 101 102 97 68 64 118 112 114 Growth duration (days) 108 99 133 99 132 108 108 108 99 99 132 133 132 standard treatment (120 kg N/ha continuous flooding) Punjab Amgain et al., 2006
  34. 34. Sensitivity of ET and yield to CO2 changes in the atmosphere as simulated by CERES-Rice model Kerala Saseendran et al., 2000
  35. 35. Sensitivity of rice yield to atmospheric temperature changes between -6 0C and +6 0C as simulated by the CERES- Rice model Kerala Saseendran et al ., 2000
  36. 36. Impact climate change on quality of rice
  37. 37. Elevated CO2 influences eating 80 quality of rice 70 Whiteness 60 50 21 40 20.5 Percentage 21.5 30 20 20 19.5 10 19 18.5 Elevated Ambient 0 1999 2000 18 17.5 1999 2000 Terao et al., 2005
  38. 38. Elevated CO2 influences eating quality of 80 rice 70 Protein content 60 50 80 70 30 60 mg/g Elevated Ambient 40 50 40 20 10 0 1999 2000 30 20 10 0 1999 2000 Terao et al., 2005
  39. 39. Impact of climate change on pest and diseases Hymenopteran parasitoids and small predators Brown plant hopper is 17 times more tolerant to 40 0C than its predator Cyrtorrhynus lividipennis Rise in winter temperature may help to continue the life cycle of pests
  40. 40.  High temperature and RH is very much conducive for rapid proliferation of sheath blight disease  Bacterial leaf streak proportion in South and emerged as an alarming SW parts of country might be due environmental factor  Minimum temperature In winter may rise in further increased severity of sheath blight and stem rot
  41. 41. Mitigation Strategies for climate change
  42. 42. Adaptive options to deal with the impact of climate change are  Developing cultivars tolerant of heat and salinity stress and resistant to flood and drought  Modified crop management practices  Improving water management  Crop diversification  Improving pest management  Better weather forecasts and crop insurance  Harnessing the indigenous technical knowledge of farmers
  43. 43. Performance of different varieties under the system of rice intensification method of cultivation during summer 2010 Tamilnadu Geethalakshmi et al., 2011
  44. 44. For flooded condition floating rice is best…
  45. 45. Variation in selected parameters of rice plants and cumulative CH4 efflux from a flooded rice paddy under the influence of Azolla and urea Kg CH4 Mg-1 Grain yield Cumulative (t ha-1) CH4 (kg ha-1) Control (no N) 3.58 94.94 26.52 Urea (60 kg N) 4.58 155.28 33.90 Azolla IC (30 kg N) + Urea (30 kg N) 4.38 149.37 34.10 Azolla dual cropping (30 kg N)+ Urea (30 kg N) 4.33 89.29 20.62 Azolla IC (30 kg N) +dual cropping (30 kg N) 4.24 105.64 b 24.92 Treatment CRRI, Cuttack grain yield Bharathi et al., 2000
  46. 46. Organic agriculture principles and practices in mitigating climate change impacts Biodiversity Intercropping, crop rotation & companion cropping Mitigate and adapt on climate change by: Nitrogen Fixation Integration IPM & Animal manure Sequestrating CO2 Reduce GHG emission Sustainability Tillage & cover crop Pl. nutritn mangt Natural fertilizers & rotation Weed, pest & disease mangt Tillage method, natural pesticides & biocontrol Indonesia Promote the healthy use & proper care of water and water resources Interact in a constructive and life enhancing way with natural systems and cycles Priyanka Prima Dewi, 2009
  47. 47.  Reducing methane emission  Reducing nitrous oxide emission  Rice residues  Rice cooking time
  48. 48. Future line of work  In detailed studies are needed to quantify the effects and interactions of CO2 and temperature on rice  Development of species specific agronomic management practices to over come climate impact  Need greater research, policy and financial support for climate change
  49. 49. Conclusion  Industrialized countries are more responsible for threat of climate change.  Rice yield decreases by about 0.75 t ha-1 in efficient zones and 0.06 t ha-1 in coastal regions.  Grain yield declined by 10 per cent for each 1 ºC increase in growing season minimum temperature.  By adapting mitigation strategies minimize the negative impacts of climate change and need more time to become effective.

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