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THE FUTURE OF ARMED FORCE
TOWARDS A DEFENSE AND SECURITY ECOSYSTEM?
STEPHAN DE SPIEGELEIRE
HCSS PRINCIPAL SCIENTIST
ROYAL ...
?Defense Ecosystem
When You Google ‘defense military’
operatiën
When You Google ‘Ecosystem’
duurzaam
NLD CHOD on ‘Ecosystems’
…[A]s the custodians of our societies’
security, we also have to explore other
parts of this ecos...
The ‘Soldier’ of the Future
Defence andArmed Force –
Back to the Roots
? ?
? Defend mid-13c., from
O.Fr. defendre (12c.) "defend,
resist," and directl...
‘Armed Force’ as a Reflection of theAge
Industrial societyAgrarian society
Age
Nomadic
(Hunter/gatherer)
Bare Hands
Human
...
Industrial age: TheAge of the ‘Line’
The Industrial Paradigm (‘Taylorism’)
Stovepipes galore
 Within our MoDs
 Services
 Civil-Military
 Policy/strategy – ops
– caps – fin - HR…
 Inter-agency
...
The end of the line; The dawn of the network/ecosystem
Complicated vs. complex
How We Think About ‘Strategy’ Now
Policy
Strategy
Operational
Tactical
How Operations Devoured Strategy
 Before the industrial age
 ‘Sovereign’ incarnated strategy and tactics
 Before the industrial age
 ‘Sovereign’ incarn...
How Operations Devoured Strategy
 Industrial age – the ‘age of the line’
 Quantum leap in physical/social technologies; ...
What Happened in the Industrial Age
?
Politics
Strategy
Operational
Tactical
T
h
e
M
i
l
i
t
a
r
y
Pre-Industrial
Policy
S...
Don’t we already do this? The comprehensive approach
First in-theater
(3D)
Then in capitals
(typically through
money)
Then...
‘Ecosystem’
An ecosystem is a community of living organisms in
conjunction with the nonliving components of their environm...
The ‘model’
Examples
InterBrand: Best Global Brands
These Grew Fastest
These are platform ecosystems
The power of ecosystem platforms
’’In 2015,
Uber, the world’s largest taxi
company owns no vehicles,
Facebook the world’s ...
‘Defense’As an Ecosystem (Platform)?
 The defense and security ecosystem exists. It’s evolving
exponentially. What is the...
Don’t be a star, be an ecosystem platform…
The Future of Armed Force. Towards a Defense and Security Ecosystem
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The Future of Armed Force. Towards a Defense and Security Ecosystem

Presentation given at the 2016 Royal Netherlands Airforce Airpower Symposium, April 27, 2016, Gilze-Rijen Air Base

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The Future of Armed Force. Towards a Defense and Security Ecosystem

  1. 1. THE FUTURE OF ARMED FORCE TOWARDS A DEFENSE AND SECURITY ECOSYSTEM? STEPHAN DE SPIEGELEIRE HCSS PRINCIPAL SCIENTIST ROYAL NETHERLANDS AIRFORCE AIRPOWER SYMPOSIUM, APRIL 27, 2016, GILZE-RIJEN AIR BASE
  2. 2. ?Defense Ecosystem
  3. 3. When You Google ‘defense military’ operatiën
  4. 4. When You Google ‘Ecosystem’ duurzaam
  5. 5. NLD CHOD on ‘Ecosystems’ …[A]s the custodians of our societies’ security, we also have to explore other parts of this ecosystem. Areas that are less formalized and less structured. Areas, where aligned actions emerge more ad-hoc, and bottom-up. Areas, where co-operation is extremely dynamic and flexible. Areas, not described in signed agreements but more driven by common interests and some level of mutual trust, operating through informal networks. Take Google or Apple for example with their mobile ‘app’ stores. They provide a free and open platform, that all sorts of ‘ecosystem partners’ can hitch a ride on. Both ‘planned’ and ‘unplanned', while in the meantime allowing Google and Apple to benefit from the ideas, creativity, capabilities and actions of others. “I wonder whether this is something our defense organizations might learn from… “
  6. 6. The ‘Soldier’ of the Future
  7. 7. Defence andArmed Force – Back to the Roots ? ? ? Defend mid-13c., from O.Fr. defendre (12c.) "defend, resist," and directly from L. defendere "ward off, protect, guard, allege in defence," from de- "from, away" (see de-) + -fendere "to strike, push," from PIE base *gwhen-"to strike, kill, wound" Arm "weapon," c.1300, from O.Fr. armes (pl.), 11c., from L. arma "weapons," lit. "tools, implements (of war)," PIE base *ar- "fit, join." The notion seems to be "that which is fitted together." Security "without care, dreading no evil," c. 1530s, from Latin*se cura: se "free from" + cura "care“ - tranquil; free from danger
  8. 8. ‘Armed Force’ as a Reflection of theAge Industrial societyAgrarian society Age Nomadic (Hunter/gatherer) Bare Hands Human Clan Cold Mechanical Settlement Hot Thermal Nation-State Post-industrial society: Information and knowledge age? Age ‘Arms’ Information and knowledge? Energy Information and knowledge? Unit Ecosystem? ‘Arms’ Energy Unit Hominoid History – Start of Agriculture Since the Last Ice Age Pre- Industrial Industrial
  9. 9. Industrial age: TheAge of the ‘Line’
  10. 10. The Industrial Paradigm (‘Taylorism’)
  11. 11. Stovepipes galore  Within our MoDs  Services  Civil-Military  Policy/strategy – ops – caps – fin - HR…  Inter-agency  Public-private  Companies  Academic disciplines  Time stovepipes  Ideology  …
  12. 12. The end of the line; The dawn of the network/ecosystem
  13. 13. Complicated vs. complex
  14. 14. How We Think About ‘Strategy’ Now Policy Strategy Operational Tactical
  15. 15. How Operations Devoured Strategy
  16. 16.  Before the industrial age  ‘Sovereign’ incarnated strategy and tactics  Before the industrial age  ‘Sovereign’ incarnated strategy and tactics  He made the strategic decisions  Before the industrial age  ‘Sovereign’ incarnated strategy and tactics  He made the strategic decisions  And then led the troops into combat How Operations Devoured Strategy
  17. 17. How Operations Devoured Strategy  Industrial age – the ‘age of the line’  Quantum leap in physical/social technologies; larger political units (nations), larger scope of combat  Role/Task Specialization – e.g. between ‘political’ leader (direction and control) and ‘military’ leader  Operational art emerges and devours strategy  Post-industrial age? – the age of the network/ecosystem?  Compression of echelons?  A ‘new’ all-encompassing echelon?  Post-echelon?  Before the industrial age  ‘Sovereign’ incarnated strategy and tactics  He made the strategic decisions  And then led the troops into combat
  18. 18. What Happened in the Industrial Age ? Politics Strategy Operational Tactical T h e M i l i t a r y Pre-Industrial Policy Strategy Operational Tactical T h e S o v e r e i g n Industrial Post-Industrial?
  19. 19. Don’t we already do this? The comprehensive approach First in-theater (3D) Then in capitals (typically through money) Then in capitals (on missions and ops) Ecosystem? Then broader (terrorism and HS)
  20. 20. ‘Ecosystem’ An ecosystem is a community of living organisms in conjunction with the nonliving components of their environment (things like air, water and mineral soil), interacting as a system.
  21. 21. The ‘model’
  22. 22. Examples
  23. 23. InterBrand: Best Global Brands
  24. 24. These Grew Fastest These are platform ecosystems
  25. 25. The power of ecosystem platforms ’’In 2015, Uber, the world’s largest taxi company owns no vehicles, Facebook the world’s most popular media owner creates no content, Alibaba the most valuable retailer has no inventory, and Airbnb the world’s largest hotelier owns no real estate.’’ Tom Goodwin, Sr. VP of Strategy Havas Media
  26. 26. ‘Defense’As an Ecosystem (Platform)?  The defense and security ecosystem exists. It’s evolving exponentially. What is the future of ‘Armed Force’?  Do we want to remain (mostly industrial-kinetic) operators (current me+)  Do we want to become industrial AND post-industrial ‘operators’ (‘ future me’ – ‘I’ am the primary operator)  Do we want to become the  custodians of a broader defense and security ecosystem (future ‘we’ – catalyst, nudger, ‘strange attractor’, etc.)  catalysts/‘owners’ of a platform that brings this ecosystem together  Who (now!) does/can do future ‘capability’ planning for the entire DSE?  Still (again) a special role for Europe (/the Netherlands)?
  27. 27. Don’t be a star, be an ecosystem platform…

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