Tree rings as climate proxies on the northern Plains

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Tree rings as climate proxies on the northern Plains

  1. 1. Brian Luckman University of Western Ontario
  2. 2. Dave Meko University of Arizona
  3. 3. Erik Nielsen Manitoba Geological Survey
  4. 4. Brazil Russia Canada USA China India Columbia Peru Zaire 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 Source: Shiklomanov and Rodda, 2003 km3/y Canada Renewable water resources, by country
  5. 5. Photo: Haley Ca on
  6. 6. Photo: Manitoba Hydro
  7. 7. Tree-ring display at elementary school Photograph:Tom Swetnam
  8. 8. Martin-Philippe Girardin Canadian Forest Service Greg Pederson United States Geological Survey Erik Nielsen Manitoba Geological Survey Emma Watson Environment Canada Glen MacDonald UCLA David Sauchyn University of Regina Jacques Tardif University of Winnipeg
  9. 9. part one Tree rings on the northern Plains
  10. 10. White pine 1714
  11. 11. Photo: Danny Margoles White cedar 1452
  12. 12. Photo: Greg Brooks
  13. 13. 2008
  14. 14. 1875
  15. 15. Photo: Erik Nielsen Fort Dufferin 1873
  16. 16. Photo: Erik Nielsen
  17. 17. Photo: Erik Nielsen ‘Rat River’ House 1859
  18. 18. 29 Photo: Erik Nielsen
  19. 19. Photo: Erik Nielsen
  20. 20. 31
  21. 21. Prairie tree-ring network
  22. 22. part two Prairie trees, Prairie drought
  23. 23. water stress
  24. 24. water stress reduced photosynthesis
  25. 25. water stress less cell expansion reduced photosynthesis
  26. 26. water stress reduced cell division less cell expansion reduced photosynthesis
  27. 27. water stress reduced cell division less cell expansion reduced photosynthesisnarrow ring
  28. 28. Palmer Drought Severity Index
  29. 29. 40
  30. 30. Calgary
  31. 31. 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year (A.D.) -10 -5 0 5 10 PDSI -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 PDSI Ringwidth drought-sensitive tree-ring records Eastern Canadian Rockies St. George et al., (2009), Journal of Climate
  32. 32. St. George et al., (2010), The Holocene
  33. 33. part three Prairie droughts
  34. 34. Calgary
  35. 35. 114o W 108o W 102o W 96oW 90 o W 48o N 50o N 52o N 54o N 56o N 58o N −2 −1 0 1 2 0 +2-2 Ringwidth anomaly (deviations) 1718 - 1722 Source: St. George et al., 2009
  36. 36. Above average Below average 1842 to 1876 Source: St. George et al., 2009
  37. 37. Winnipeg
  38. 38. 1100 1300 1500 1700 1900 Year (AD) -4 -2 0 2 4 Pollen-inferred effective moisture (cm) St. Jacques et al., Quaternary Science Reviews, 2008 Lake Mina, Minnesota
  39. 39. Photo: Erik Nielsen
  40. 40. MEGADROUGHT
  41. 41. characteristics of Prairie tree rings Primarily tuned to summer drought Exhibit low spatial coherence Have modest connections to remote forcings ✔ ✔ ✔
  42. 42. Drought severity over the Northern Plains during 1932 – 1939 was likely triggered instead by random atmospheric variability.” “ Hoerling et al., Geophysical Research Le ers, 2009
  43. 43. Photo: Calvin Ferris
  44. 44. Photo: Chris Crawford
  45. 45. Photo: Danny Margoles
  46. 46. Photo: Lane Johnson
  47. 47. I N T R O D U C T I O N TO D E N D R O C H R O N O LO GY

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