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Tree Rings and Drought
     Past drought on the Canadian Prairies


                       S co tt St. Ge orge
                       Geological Survey of Canada
Prairie tree-ring network, ca. 1996
3
Tree rings and drought on the Canadian Prairies
Fort Dufferin, Manitoba
4,000 year-old
river logs




         6
Prairie tree-ring network


                  Northern Saskatchewan




Eastern Rockies
                                          Northwestern
                                               Ontario




                  Southern Manitoba
4
Characteristics of
 Prairie tree rings
The tree-ring record of summer
drought in the Canadian Prairies
Scott St. George
David Meko                         Greg Pederson
Martin-Phillippe Girardin          David Sauchyn
Glen MacDonald                     Jacques Tardif
Erik Nielsen                       Emma Watson



              Submitted to the Journal of Climate, January 2008
Tree age
Bristlecone pine
  4,844 years
     Source: OLDLIST




                  Photo: Tom Harlan
Eastern white cedar
    1,653 years
      Source: OLDLIST

                        Photo: Peter Kelly
Eastern white pine
    290 years
     Source: M. Girardin
Bur oak
279 years
Limber pine
 846 years
  Source: G. Pederson




         Photo: Greg Pederson
Richard I of England   16
Photo: julie & fanu
Length of regional records
      S. Alberta                                   480


N. Saskatchewan          169


    S. Manitoba                                    485


   NW Ontario                  225

                   0   125           250     375         500
                                     Years
Seasonality
“
The trees composing the
forest rejoice and lament with
its successes and failures and
carry year by year something
of its story in their annual
rings.

     ”Douglass
    A.E.
Dominant seasonal signals
        90
                                          82
        80
        70
        60
        50
Sites




        40
        30                      24
        20
        10              7
               3
         0                                       20
             Autumn   Winter   Spring   Summer   Autumn
21
22
Medicine Hat, Alberta




Source: Environment Canada, Adjusted Historical Canadian Climate Data, 1895 – 2006
24
Effectiveness
Dendrohydrology
works best where it’s

         dry       ...
and not so well
where it’s
     wet
Ringwidth as a proxy for
‘Lethbridge’ PDSI
Ringwidth as a proxy for
‘Dryden’ PDSI
Uncertainty
755 m3/s

847 m3/s

809 m3/s

770 m3/s

823 m3/s

787 m3/s

901 m3/s
     3
“Trees are not thermometers
       or raingauges.”
     Keith Briffa and colleagues
Quantitative drought estimates
Quantitative drought estimates
Can we
             Absolutely!
do better?
Photo: Emma Watson
Tree rings and drought on the Canadian Prairies
Photo: New York Times




    38
Focus on long-term drought
                     100%       60%             43%
Explained variance




                     75%



                     50%                       57%

                               40%
                     25%



                      0%
                            Single Year   5-Year Average
Courtesy Keith Lombardo




Measure other stuff
Wood chemistry    Wood density
Stable isotopes   Wood anatomy
Prairie tree rings
          & drought

                41
Photo: Monceau




web.mac.com/scottstgeorge

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