April 2010: Real Time Housing Market Data & Housing Prices<br />Altos Research<br />
Real-Time Real Estate Market Analytics<br />Altos Research answers the question “How’s the market, right now?”<br />Our cl...
Active Inventory: 20-City Composite<br />
Days-on-Market: 20-City Composite<br />
Housing Price Trends: 20-City Composite<br />
Altos 20-City Composite<br />
Looking Ahead: 2011<br />
Price of New Listings<br />
Active Sellers w/ Price Reductions<br />
What Really Drives Mortgage Risk?<br />2008 -Default spike exactly correlated with market trough<br />Pre-2007 “normal” ma...
Many now rely only on LTV<br /><ul><li>Assumption: “If a borrower is deep underwater, he’ll walk away.”
Reality:
CA list prices rose 8% in 1H2009
Inventory dropped by 30%
New defaults fell 24% in Q4
LTV is still lousy on these properties
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2010-11 Housing Prices: Altos Research at Opal Investors Conference, April 2010

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Scott Sambucci's presentation from the Home Prices Panel Discussion at the Opal Financial Group's "Real Estate Investors Summit: Dealmakers Conference" (April 25-27, 2010).

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2010-11 Housing Prices: Altos Research at Opal Investors Conference, April 2010

  1. 1. April 2010: Real Time Housing Market Data & Housing Prices<br />Altos Research<br />
  2. 2. Real-Time Real Estate Market Analytics<br />Altos Research answers the question “How’s the market, right now?”<br />Our clients are anyone who has an exposure to the real estate market <br />Financial institutions, investors, and thousands of real estate professionals around the country.<br />The only national source of primary research in the active housing market<br />Unique statistics and applications for analysis and action<br />
  3. 3. Active Inventory: 20-City Composite<br />
  4. 4. Days-on-Market: 20-City Composite<br />
  5. 5. Housing Price Trends: 20-City Composite<br />
  6. 6. Altos 20-City Composite<br />
  7. 7. Looking Ahead: 2011<br />
  8. 8. Price of New Listings<br />
  9. 9. Active Sellers w/ Price Reductions<br />
  10. 10. What Really Drives Mortgage Risk?<br />2008 -Default spike exactly correlated with market trough<br />Pre-2007 “normal” markets: defaults correlate to FICO, LTV<br />1<br />2<br />2009 – market conditions stabilized, new defaults decline<br />
  11. 11. Many now rely only on LTV<br /><ul><li>Assumption: “If a borrower is deep underwater, he’ll walk away.”
  12. 12. Reality:
  13. 13. CA list prices rose 8% in 1H2009
  14. 14. Inventory dropped by 30%
  15. 15. New defaults fell 24% in Q4
  16. 16. LTV is still lousy on these properties
  17. 17. In a rapidly changing market, LTV impact weakens and FICO approaches irrelevancy.</li></li></ul><li>New Delinquencies Peak at Market Trough<br />New delinquencies perfectly correlated to market conditions<br />
  18. 18. Altos RMBS Local Market Intelligence™<br />Real-time, local view<br />Home price stats<br />Median price, PNL, PLA<br />Home price distribution stats<br />Min, max, stdev<br />Price quartiles distribution<br />Supply and demand<br />Inventory, median DOM, mean DOM, new listings, listings absorbed<br />Housing Market Psychology™ indicators<br />% relist, %price reduced, Market Action Index<br />
  19. 19. What Really Drives Mortgage Risk?<br /><ul><li>FICO? LTV?
  20. 20. The last 36 months have taught us that external housing market variables are by far the most important variable in determining mortgage default rates
  21. 21. Home Price direction, inventory, time to sell
  22. 22. Impact the borrower psychology and drive decisions
  23. 23. Declining market: “I’ll never get out. It’ll never sell.”
  24. 24. Up market: “This is getting better! I see light at the end of the tunnel”</li></li></ul><li>Active Market Variables Drive Borrower Actions<br />Must be real-time, local<br />Lagging Case-Shiller insufficient<br />Ask price trends <br />price of new listings vs. price of absorbed<br />YOY Inventory<br />Absorption rate vs. inventory (Market Action Index)<br />Relist %<br />DOM<br />
  25. 25. Contact Info<br />Scott Sambucci, VP Data Analytics<br />M: (415) 596-0804<br />O: (415) 931 7942<br />scott@altosresearch.com<br />T: @AltosResearch<br />Bloomberg: ALTO<br />www.altosresearch.com<br />blog.altosresearch.com<br />

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