Beyond Mobile, Beyond WebThe Internet of things needs our helpIA Summit 5 April 2013     @scottjenson     jenson.org
?                                                                                                                         ...
Comfort vs RiskWhat’s happening next? Easy, it’s the iWatch! Soon to be followed by the iRing and the iTieTack.The reason ...
Default ThinkingI’ve written about this before, in a few articles and a book chapter about how throughout the history of t...
We look at the present  through a rearview mirror;  we march backwards into  the future  Marshall McLuhanThis is so beauti...
So how have we been stumbling? What’s actually been happening recently? We haven’t seen the iWatch (yet) so what has been ...
Things like the Nest come along
and the Twine hobbyist sensor, and GloCap, a smart pill bottle the calls you when you forget to take your pills, and about...
But if you throw in the idea of a smart city, things really start to get confusing. We are in a situation where the world ...
It took us more than 20 years, but computing hasfinally moved from conserving resources ingeniouslyto squandering them crea...
Gartner Hype CycleHow many of you have heard of the Gartner Hype Cycle? It’s got it’s pros and cons but it’s a fairly ente...
Gartner Hype Cycle    Technology      Trigger
Gartner Hype Cycle            Peak of            inflated          expectations
Gartner Hype Cycle                  Trough of               disillusionment
Gartner Hype Cycle                        Slope of                     enlightenment
Gartner Hype Cycle                      Plateau of                     productivity
Gartner Hype Cycle                                        3D Printing           Internet of             Things            ...
Why mobile apps must die?It’s why I wrote Mobile Apps must die! People thought it was a rant about web vs native apps but ...
Apps just can’t be the only tool in the tool kit. Are we really going to have an app for every store we go to, every produ...
Value > PainThere is a subtle force at work here, it’s not always about technology, sometimes it’s also about design. Ther...
Value > PainAt about the same time Google was able to reduce the page weight of google.com and got it to load 4 TENTHS of ...
Triumph of the Mundane                                   Value > PainWhen pain goes to zero, value can go to zero as well....
Coordination                                                                            Control                           ...
Bears                        ....Big Screen + General OS                                            Bats                  ...
Bats                      .... focused function deviceBoth Bears and Bees are somewhat old school. What they are trying to...
Just in Time                                                                                              InteractionThere...
Insanity is doing exactly the same thing....and expecting a different result.Einstein
Paradigm                                                                                                                  ...
Model                              Paradigm                  Revolution                                Change             ...
What is our model crisis?         Software                                             Buy                                ...
What is our model crisis?         Software                                               Buy                          Inst...
Discovery       Control          CoordinationQRCode          RESTful API      Data standardsNFC             Hardware costs...
Perspective is worth 80 IQ points      Alan KayWe need to stop thinking of the mobile web as a shoehorned version of the d...
Silos are counter productive
Remember these guys? They were the ‘pre-web’, for a while, they were much better than the web. They competed, tried to enc...
Yet this is what we’re doing today: we’re getting locked into silos of devices and content. If an open solution gets start...
Malcom McLeanDo you know this guy? He is my hero! He single handedly invented the container ship business and then, realiz...
Internet                                     ≠ Web                                         Open                           ...
All my data, in one placeI chuckle whenever people talk about ‘THE cloud’. That’s not quite right...
...it’s really more about a sky FULL of separate clouds
APIWe need to work towards a model where we have a single API that connects to OUR cloud. It’s not the devices’ data, its ...
Google your room
Next                                                                                         ‘Google’We need an open sourc...
Toyota Prius                                                                      68                                      ...
68                                                                      Musée du Louvre                                   ...
3G                                                2:12 PM                                                          JIT eco...
Silos are counter productive                                                ....and so very old school                    ...
In thinking about the future, it’s easy to be blinded the the giants of the day. The iPhone is great, it was a major step ...
In thinking about the future, it’s easy to be blinded the the giants of the day. The iPhone is great, it was a major step ...
Power to the people
scott@jenson.org@scottjensonjenson.org
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2013 ia summit

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This is the LONG form of my SXSW talk, it has more content and examples to it.

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2013 ia summit

  1. 1. Beyond Mobile, Beyond WebThe Internet of things needs our helpIA Summit 5 April 2013 @scottjenson jenson.org
  2. 2. ? Speed Size CostHow do we, as a team, think and build new products? We are all interested about the future. We even come to conference like this to try to answer thatquestion, “What’s happening next?”When we reflect on how far we’ve come, most people just focus on the holy trinity of speed size and cost. But these are *safe* predictions, of course things willget smaller/faster/cheaper. That is incremental innovation and really are just extending the current paradigm.
  3. 3. Comfort vs RiskWhat’s happening next? Easy, it’s the iWatch! Soon to be followed by the iRing and the iTieTack.The reason people are so excited about the iWatch is that it makes so much sense (from a certain naive perspective) We can all see it, it’s not a huge leap sowe inherently like it. Of course, the iWatch, if it ever comes, will likely be fine product. We just need to be clear: it’s a fairly conservative extension of an existingparadigm.The really big changes are very hard to see. Most stare you right in the face as you walk by. A creative idea takes an equally creative person to understand it.This is why people are so surprisingly conservative when it comes to innovation. While I was at frog, it became painfully clear that much of my job was coachingas our clients all wanted innovation but at the same time, they were deathly afraid of risk. It’s a shocking paradox isn’t it? But it explains why, when thinking of thefuture, we tend to fall back on known, existing patterns
  4. 4. Default ThinkingI’ve written about this before, in a few articles and a book chapter about how throughout the history of technology we never take a shiny new technology andrun with it. We almost always turn around and use it for an something were doing yesterday. We evaluate tomorrow’s technologies by yesterday’s tasks. A classicexample is how people initially read radio plays on TV. Of course, they quickly figured it out but that’s how we humans work: we stumble our way intoinnovation. It’s why designers like to prototype, we dont know what we don’t know.
  5. 5. We look at the present through a rearview mirror; we march backwards into the future Marshall McLuhanThis is so beautifully phrased and explains why we get technology predictions so horribly wrong. We predict by looking backwards, we don’t appreciate how wealmost always stumble our way into the future.
  6. 6. So how have we been stumbling? What’s actually been happening recently? We haven’t seen the iWatch (yet) so what has been showing up in the mean time?
  7. 7. Things like the Nest come along
  8. 8. and the Twine hobbyist sensor, and GloCap, a smart pill bottle the calls you when you forget to take your pills, and about a dozen smart light bulb projects onkickstarter. These are wacky crazy new directions that don’t fit with our current understanding.
  9. 9. But if you throw in the idea of a smart city, things really start to get confusing. We are in a situation where the world is running ahead of our ability toconceptualize what is happening. The iWatch is a fine product that is extending and old model. It doesn’t help us make sense of this crazy explosion of new-ness.
  10. 10. It took us more than 20 years, but computing hasfinally moved from conserving resources ingeniouslyto squandering them creatively.David Gelernter
  11. 11. Gartner Hype CycleHow many of you have heard of the Gartner Hype Cycle? It’s got it’s pros and cons but it’s a fairly entertaining look at how we explore and use any newtechnology.
  12. 12. Gartner Hype Cycle Technology Trigger
  13. 13. Gartner Hype Cycle Peak of inflated expectations
  14. 14. Gartner Hype Cycle Trough of disillusionment
  15. 15. Gartner Hype Cycle Slope of enlightenment
  16. 16. Gartner Hype Cycle Plateau of productivity
  17. 17. Gartner Hype Cycle 3D Printing Internet of Things App Stores Speech Recognition Quantum Computing Virtual WorldsAnd here are examples along this curve: Quantum Computing, 3d Printing, Virtual Worlds, speech recognitionWhere do you think the internet of things is on this graph? Its still a trigger technology, Keep in mind this was their 2012 report… But Id claim that the IoT isvery quickly rising right into 3D printing territory. The reason is simple, there is another technology that it is drafting behind: App Stores. It is the success of SmartPhone in general, and apps specifically that is fueling this boom. It is allowing new devices to be created even easier and faster.But there is a huge risk here. Its default thinking all over. Were taking the amazing crazy potential of the IoT and tying it to a technology that is quickly heading totrough territory...
  18. 18. Why mobile apps must die?It’s why I wrote Mobile Apps must die! People thought it was a rant about web vs native apps but that wasn’t it at all.http://jenson.org/mobile-apps-must-die/
  19. 19. Apps just can’t be the only tool in the tool kit. Are we really going to have an app for every store we go to, every product we buy and every new interactivedevice that is coming our way?How many of you, in the last few weeks, have gone through your phones, deleting the old apps you’re not using any more? It’s a rhetorical question, we ALL dothis! We are gardening our phones. But why? We’re rational beings, what is the motivation? It’s simple, dead apps get in the way. Have any of you walked into astore and seen a sign ‘We’re in the app store!” and just shrugged, you couldn’t be bothered? At frog, that type of user pain/apathy was design gold, you kill for thattype of insight but here we are experiencing this nearly every day.There is a ‘thin crust of effort’ that is forming around apps, there is a certain amount of pain that is involved in using them today! Imagine when we aresurrounded by 100s of more smart devices, it’s clearly unsustainable.
  20. 20. Value > PainThere is a subtle force at work here, it’s not always about technology, sometimes it’s also about design. There is a basic design axiom that is at the heart ofalmost all design: Value must be greater than pain. Let me give you an example. In the 1990’s The UX for SMS was *horrible* but it’s value was so high thatpeople persevered
  21. 21. Value > PainAt about the same time Google was able to reduce the page weight of google.com and got it to load 4 TENTHS of second faster. It was to the pixel, exactly thesame. What happened, usage went up multiple percentage points (That’s actually a REALLY big deal for Google) In this case Value was identical but just byreducing pain, the product was improved.
  22. 22. Triumph of the Mundane Value > PainWhen pain goes to zero, value can go to zero as well. I call this Triumph of the Mundane as it’s the LITTLE things that are going to have value, as long as we canmake them very very easy to use.But when talking about the internet of things we are clearly into a full blow hype bubble. You just have to read any article about it and people are promisingcrazy things. We’ve seen this movie before: Over promising, under delivery, and big disillusionment.
  23. 23. Coordination Control DiscoveryEvery time I talk about the IoT I get questions that show that people really, deeply don’t understand what it is about. My favorite example is the smart toaster,the derogatory poster child of the IoT. When people say that “I don’t want apps on my toaster” I want to shake them by their shoulders! “That’s *your* oldparadigm, not mine. It’s too easy to criticize a new technology using old concepts. Smart devices are not about apps! They are about 3 basic layers offunctionality: Discovery, Control, and CoordinationDiscovery: Finding my devices nearby. Most companies would kill for just this basic feature. Depending on how clever they are with the URL it can span goofymarketing page (boring) to SPIME like deep interaction with my device history.Control: A small increment in cost lets me control the device. This same URL model has moved us from web site directly to Nest because now I’m talking toMY device. While prices are still high, finding the right balance will be tricky but as the costs fall, the choice will become trivial. This needs ‘another Apple’ to takethe chance because once it becomes clear it is possible, EVERYONE will want to jump into the pool.Coordination: This is the hard one as it involves so much cooperation. I love the overall vision but it will take time for companies to get on board with enoughstandards to make this happen. Think about today. I can hardly get Mint.com to access all of financial records, it’s constantly breaking down. We expect massivedata and control settings to work across every world wide manufacturer?My point is that we need to start with the first two: Discovery and Control. They are very much within our reach and offer significant value.
  24. 24. Bears ....Big Screen + General OS Bats .... focused function device Bees ....only dataAs a designer, I feel strongly there is power in words. The IoT is such a messy ball of stuff that it’s hard to talk about it. It’s useful to break it up into three basicgroups: Bears, bats, and bees.http://jenson.org/of-bears-bats-and-bees-making-sense-of-the-internet-of-things/
  25. 25. Bats .... focused function deviceBoth Bears and Bees are somewhat old school. What they are trying to do is fairly well established. What I find most interesting are Bats as they are breakingnew ground and creating not only new product concepts but how to even things about functionality.
  26. 26. Just in Time InteractionThere is a wide range of devices from the nest down to bus stops (which are just a steel pole stuck in concrete) There is a continuum of device fromstandalone processor to a tagged object that points to a web page. But, from a design point of view, they are all the same: they want your attention and youneed to interact with them. The problem is that we are still using our old school paradigm of ‘native apps’ to deal with them. While I might be fine with an appfor my Nest, am i going to download an app for ever store I enter, every smart poster to see, or every smart museum I enter? As we move to single useexperiences, apps become hopelessly quaint.
  27. 27. Insanity is doing exactly the same thing....and expecting a different result.Einstein
  28. 28. Paradigm ShiftWe need a paradigm shift: to see things in a new way. Thomas Kuhn talked about how shifts occur in the scientific community. Before every great shift was a‘model crisis’ where things started to fray at the edge. Nothing dramatic, the old guard always yells relax, thing are fine and the new blood keeps pushing forsomething new. It’s a classic tension.
  29. 29. Model Paradigm Revolution Change        Kuhn Cycle Normal Model Science Crisis Model DriftThe Structure of Scientific Revolutions
  30. 30. What is our model crisis? Software Buy Install ReuseWhat is our model crisis? We are moving from a model based on Software, where we buy, install and reuse
  31. 31. What is our model crisis? Software Buy Install Reuse Experience Discover Use ForgetTo one based on experience where we discover, use and forget.When I buy a smart toaster I don’t want to buy the software, that is a meaningless concept
  32. 32. Discovery Control CoordinationQRCode RESTful API Data standardsNFC Hardware costs Storage standardsWireless Standards Device vs ServiceBluetooth ProtocolsWifiBattery life?Security?
  33. 33. Perspective is worth 80 IQ points Alan KayWe need to stop thinking of the mobile web as a shoehorned version of the desktop web. The mobile web is going to go where the desktop and native appscan never go....
  34. 34. Silos are counter productive
  35. 35. Remember these guys? They were the ‘pre-web’, for a while, they were much better than the web. They competed, tried to encourage people to come tothem. The web, at least initially, was quite bad, but it eventually overran all of them for the simple reason of scope and reach: they all couldn’t have everything.
  36. 36. Yet this is what we’re doing today: we’re getting locked into silos of devices and content. If an open solution gets started, it will almost certainly be worse atfirst, but it will structurally encourage a much better, broader approach. It will blow past these silos over time.
  37. 37. Malcom McLeanDo you know this guy? He is my hero! He single handedly invented the container ship business and then, realizing that it would only work if the worldstandardized, he GAVE AWAY ALL OF THIS PATENTS! Of course this was very enlightened self interest as his company reaped the benefit of this but it wasstill an overall plus for the world. He was voted ‘Maritime Man of the Century!” for his work.
  38. 38. Internet ≠ Web Open Closed Expansive ConstrictedThe internet is not the same as the web. The internet is build on basic open standards like DNS and HTTP. The web, while basically open, has quicklyencrouaged silo apps like amazon/facebook that try to keep you there, doing everything within that world.
  39. 39. All my data, in one placeI chuckle whenever people talk about ‘THE cloud’. That’s not quite right...
  40. 40. ...it’s really more about a sky FULL of separate clouds
  41. 41. APIWe need to work towards a model where we have a single API that connects to OUR cloud. It’s not the devices’ data, its MY data. There are some greatcompanies that are exploring the personal storage space that are beginning to make this happen. I strongly suggest you check out Spark Devices as they arebuilding this model correctly. You can use their servers to store data but you can easily choose someone else.
  42. 42. Google your room
  43. 43. Next ‘Google’We need an open source ‘Growl’ like app that finds all devices nearby and presents them to me. Eventually, this service will need a cloud component to rank itbut this too should be open so that Google, Bing, etc can all play. Indexing the physical world is the next google
  44. 44. Toyota Prius 68 Maria Jenson Musée du Louvre T-Mobile Clear Bang & Olufson Notifications Justine Crêpes Notifications from David New SMS Notifications New SMS from David New SMS from David 3G 2:12 PMHere is a quick example but it applies just as much to Google Glass as to Smart phones, or even smart TVs... But if it were to find something smart nearby, itjust lists it in the notification bar. When I click on it, it just shows a browser ‘chrome’ (with no browser overhead) This is fast, quick and involves no appdownload. Yes, the mobile web isn’t as functional as native apps but we’re talking about simple devices, we don’t need the power of WorldOfWarcraft to turnon a light bulb. HTML5 is more than enough for the vast majority of needs. I’m not against native apps, I just pro instant-interaction. Anything that allows that is agood step forward.
  45. 45. 68 Musée du Louvre Crêpes Justine Notifications New SMS from David 3G 2:12 PM T-Mobile Clear Nearby Toyota Prius Maria Jenson Bang & Olufson Notifications New SMS from DavidHere is a quick example but it applies just as much to Google Glass as to Smart phones, or even smart TVs... But if it were to find something smart nearby, itjust lists it in the notification bar. When I click on it, it just shows a browser ‘chrome’ (with no browser overhead) This is fast, quick and involves no appdownload. Yes, the mobile web isn’t as functional as native apps but we’re talking about simple devices, we don’t need the power of WorldOfWarcraft to turnon a light bulb. HTML5 is more than enough for the vast majority of needs. I’m not against native apps, I just pro instant-interaction. Anything that allows that is agood step forward.
  46. 46. 3G 2:12 PM JIT ecosystemBut this is a bit naive, I’ll admit but what I’m ultimate asking for is a just in time ecosystem where many smart displays are looking for many more smartobjects.
  47. 47. Silos are counter productive ....and so very old school All your data Google your roomThe overall message here is that the old school model of monolithic ecosystems is crumbling. The internet of things is just like the internet: by it’s very definitionit covers everything, there is no way a single company can encompass that. At the same time, we are an economy that loves the big players and we look tothem to lead the way.What is more likely to happen is that kickstarter/indigogo will create a range of crazy and a bit weird products that, like the early web, will NOT be as good asthe siloed systems. However, as they crowdsource and grow, they will surprise and grow from the ground up, again, must like the original web did. Someone isgoing to solve these two problems in a way that is good enough to kick start this movement.
  48. 48. In thinking about the future, it’s easy to be blinded the the giants of the day. The iPhone is great, it was a major step forward but it is not the model we need forthe internet of things. It still has a place, we just need to grow past it to a more flexibly and open model.
  49. 49. In thinking about the future, it’s easy to be blinded the the giants of the day. The iPhone is great, it was a major step forward but it is not the model we need forthe internet of things. It still has a place, we just need to grow past it to a more flexibly and open model.
  50. 50. Power to the people
  51. 51. scott@jenson.org@scottjensonjenson.org

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