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There are a number of paradoxes and fallacies that keep recurring as popular and mind-bending puzzles in the media. Although there is (now) complete agreement among scientists on how to resolve them, the correct answers are often perplexing to the casual observer and still cause bewilderment.
As this paper will show, the formally correct solutions of these probabilistic paradoxes are counterintuitive. In addition to being counterintuitive, there are few tools assisting us in solving them.
Although we won’t be able to overcome inherent mental biases and cognitive limitations, we can now provide a very practical new tool for the correct inference in the form of Bayesian networks.