Vehicle Electrification—An International Perspective<br />Ed Pike, ICCT<br />Chuck Shulock, consultant<br />June 30, 2011<...
Presentation Overview<br />The ICCT Electrification Study<br />www.theicct.org/2011/03/vehicle-electrification-policy-stud...
ICCT Electrification Study<br />Purpose<br />Inform the pending update of CA Zero Emission Vehicle Program<br />Primary fo...
Key Findings<br />Slide 4<br />
Unprecedented Global Interest in Vehicle Electrification<br />2006<br />2011<br />
Drivers for Global Interest <br />Government <br />Industrial policy, energy security, climate, air quality <br />Top-down...
Costs Declining, But Remain High<br />Costs declining for fuel cells and batteries<br />Commercialization prospects still ...
Need to Plan for “Second Wave” Customers<br />Initial rollouts well underway<br />Government incentives<br />Manufacturer ...
Infrastructure<br />Public hydrogen refueling needed<br />Evaluate use of initial plug-in infrastructure rollout before co...
Green Energy<br />Increasing renewables increases GHG and air quality benefits<br />California renewable electricity stand...
California, US, China<br />Slide 11<br />
California Regulatory Program<br />ZEV Mandate<br />Requires large volume manufacturers to place increasing percentage of ...
ZEV Mandate “Value Added” <br />Uniquely able to sustain progress during uncertainty and market challenge<br />Sets bindin...
California EV Support<br />Hydrogen infrastructure<br />31 hydrogen fueling stations built or under construction pursuant ...
Other CA Activities of Interest<br />Fuel Cell Partnership<br />Plug-In Electric Vehicle Collaborative<br />Public Utiliti...
US Program<br />Goal<br />1 million cumulative PHEVs by 2015<br />$4.4 billion manufacturing grants/loans for BEVs, PHEVs<...
Chinese Program<br />Goal<br />100,000 BEVs in Beijing by 2015<br />5 million cumulative EVs/PHEVs by 2020<br />1 million ...
Chinese Program<br />Incentives<br />CNY100 billion ($15 billion) earmarked over 10 years for research and development for...
Context for Today’s Discussion<br />Slide 19<br />
EU in Context of Global Market<br />Slide 20<br />
Upstream Emissions Increasingly Important<br />Policies for startup phase may not be appropriate for mature program<br />A...
Projected Emissions, 2015<br />Slide 22<br />EU 2015 grid = 409 g/kWh; upstream emissions for ICE @ 12%<br />
Projected FCEV Emissions, 2020<br />Slide 23<br />
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Vehicle Electrification- an International Perspective

  1. 1. Vehicle Electrification—An International Perspective<br />Ed Pike, ICCT<br />Chuck Shulock, consultant<br />June 30, 2011<br />
  2. 2. Presentation Overview<br />The ICCT Electrification Study<br />www.theicct.org/2011/03/vehicle-electrification-policy-study<br />Key Findings on EVs and update on California, US, China<br />Context for Today’s Discussion<br />Slide 2<br />
  3. 3. ICCT Electrification Study<br />Purpose<br />Inform the pending update of CA Zero Emission Vehicle Program<br />Primary focus is battery electric and fuel cell vehicles (not plug hybrids)<br />Four Tasks Completed<br />Technology status, metrics, complementary policies, international lessons learned<br />Research<br />Comprehensive review of recent studies<br />Meetings in Germany, France, UK, China, US<br />Slide 3<br />
  4. 4. Key Findings<br />Slide 4<br />
  5. 5. Unprecedented Global Interest in Vehicle Electrification<br />2006<br />2011<br />
  6. 6. Drivers for Global Interest <br />Government <br />Industrial policy, energy security, climate, air quality <br />Top-down policy push from political leadership<br />Automakers<br />Gain first mover advantage in emerging market<br />Avoid falling behind in technology<br />Customers<br />Pent-up demand from early adopters<br />Slide 6<br />
  7. 7. Costs Declining, But Remain High<br />Costs declining for fuel cells and batteries<br />Commercialization prospects still uncertain<br />Continuum of powertrains likely<br />Slide 7<br />High Load<br />Drive Cycle<br />Stop-and-go<br />Continuous<br />Duty Cycle<br />Light Load<br />Highway<br />Highway Cycle<br />Intra-Urban<br />City<br />Source: General Motors presentation to Hydrogen Technical Advisory Committee<br />
  8. 8. Need to Plan for “Second Wave” Customers<br />Initial rollouts well underway<br />Government incentives<br />Manufacturer investment<br />Waiting lists for early models<br />“Second wave” customers are risk averse, new emphasis needed<br />Reliability<br />Resale value<br />Range<br />Slide 8<br />
  9. 9. Infrastructure<br />Public hydrogen refueling needed<br />Evaluate use of initial plug-in infrastructure rollout before committing to additional public chargers beyond those already planned<br />Slide 9<br />
  10. 10. Green Energy<br />Increasing renewables increases GHG and air quality benefits<br />California renewable electricity standard (RES) includes electricity for plug-ins<br />Voluntary options for additional renewables, potential marketing advantages<br />Slide 10<br />
  11. 11. California, US, China<br />Slide 11<br />
  12. 12. California Regulatory Program<br />ZEV Mandate<br />Requires large volume manufacturers to place increasing percentage of ZEVs in CA<br />PV Greenhouse Gas Standards<br />Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) & RES<br />LCFS credit amount based on electricity and hydrogen upstream production emissions<br />Cap-and-Trade <br />Upstream PV emissions in 2012, tailpipe in 2015<br />Slide 12<br />
  13. 13. ZEV Mandate “Value Added” <br />Uniquely able to sustain progress during uncertainty and market challenge<br />Sets binding mid term deployment targets<br />Transitional push, ultimate goal is fleet average<br />Incentivizes all platforms<br />BEVs, FCEVs, PHEVs<br />CA policy portfolio focused on environmental outcomes<br />ZEV, tailpipe standards, LCFS, RES<br />Slide 13<br />
  14. 14. California EV Support<br />Hydrogen infrastructure<br />31 hydrogen fueling stations built or under construction pursuant to the California Hydrogen Highway program<br />$53 million over several years for hydrogen infrastructure under the California AB 118 program<br />Plug-in purchase incentives<br />$5,000 per vehicle (will decline in 2011-2012)<br />Slide 14<br />
  15. 15. Other CA Activities of Interest<br />Fuel Cell Partnership<br />Plug-In Electric Vehicle Collaborative<br />Public Utilities Commission Infrastructure Proceedings<br />Incentive Programs<br />DriveClean Website (Buyers’ Guide)<br />Slide 15<br />
  16. 16. US Program<br />Goal<br />1 million cumulative PHEVs by 2015<br />$4.4 billion manufacturing grants/loans for BEVs, PHEVs<br />Up to $7,500 federal purchase incentive plus some state incentives<br />About 20,000 federally funded charging stations plus some state funded<br />Slide 16<br />
  17. 17. Chinese Program<br />Goal<br />100,000 BEVs in Beijing by 2015<br />5 million cumulative EVs/PHEVs by 2020<br />1 million EVs/PHEVs annually in 2020<br />20% to 30% market share by 2030<br />Slide 17<br />
  18. 18. Chinese Program<br />Incentives<br />CNY100 billion ($15 billion) earmarked over 10 years for research and development for new energy vehicles and components <br />National deployment incentives of $8,800 for a 20 kWh BEV and $6600 for 15 kWh PHEV<br />CNY30 billion ($4.4 billion) over 10 years for infrastructure<br />Regional deployment incentives can double purchase incentive<br />Many pilot projects underway<br />Slide 18<br />
  19. 19. Context for Today’s Discussion<br />Slide 19<br />
  20. 20. EU in Context of Global Market<br />Slide 20<br />
  21. 21. Upstream Emissions Increasingly Important<br />Policies for startup phase may not be appropriate for mature program<br />As vehicle numbers increase…<br />Treatment of upstream emissions becomes more important<br />Incentives may not be workable or sustainable <br />Slide 21<br />
  22. 22. Projected Emissions, 2015<br />Slide 22<br />EU 2015 grid = 409 g/kWh; upstream emissions for ICE @ 12%<br />
  23. 23. Projected FCEV Emissions, 2020<br />Slide 23<br />

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