Earth: Our Life Support System


Published on

The industrial activities of mankind are fundamentally altering the Earth's atmosphere with society altering consequences.

These slides present the fundamentals of human driven global warming and climate change, show how the effects of climate change are already have a significant impact on both human and ecological systems, and clarify why urgent action to address the most challenging issue facing us today is an absolute necessity.

The solutions to climate change are within our grasp and present world-altering possibilities. But it will take will power and a globally coordinated effort to make them a reality.

1 Like
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Total views
On SlideShare
From Embeds
Number of Embeds
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Earth: Our Life Support System

  1. 1. Earth: Our Life Support SystemHow human-driven climate change is impactingour world and what we can do about it
  2. 2. Scuba divers rely on a life support system to survive in a beautiful but hostile surrounding. A sudden change to that system can be life-threatening… …We’re now making sudden changes to our own life support system.Image: SteelCityHobbies / Flickr
  3. 3. Every day we bet that our future… …will be a lot like our past ..where we get our water… …and how we design ourClimate dictates infrastructurehow and where webuild… ..what food we grow… Climate is not the same as weather. Weather helps us decide what clothes to wear. Climate helps us decide what clothes to buy.
  4. 4. How do we know the Earthis warming?
  5. 5. -1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1880 1885 1890 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970Global Surface Temperature 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: NASA GISS 2010
  6. 6. Indicators of a Warming World Glaciers retreating Humidity rising Air temperature near surface rising Permafrost retreating poleward Tree lines shifting poleward & upward Ice sheets declining Spring arriving earlier Sea levels rising Sea ice decliningImage concept: Species migrating poleward & upward Ocean heat content risingSkeptical Science
  7. 7. Are we the cause?
  8. 8. Some scientific conclusions or theories have been sothoroughly examined and tested, and supported by so manyindependent observations and results, that their likelihoodof subsequently being found to be wrong is vanishinglysmall. Such conclusions and theories are then regarded assettled facts. This is the case for the conclusions that theEarth system is warming and that much of thiswarming is very likely due to human activities. – U.S. National Research Council
  9. 9. What is “man-made global warming”?
  10. 10. “Man-made”Global WarmingCertain industrial activities ofmankind including… Fossil fuel power production Automobile combustion Deforestation …and many moreHave fundamentally changed thecomposition of Earth’satmosphere.These atmospheric changes haveincreased the Earth’s greenhouseeffect and altered the global climatewith significant impacts on bothhuman and ecological systems.
  11. 11. Five Key Points to Discuss The greenhouse effect is vital to the Earth’s climate Carbon dioxide (CO2) is vital to the greenhouse effect Human activities are significantly impacting global CO2 levels Changes in climate can have significant detrimental impacts There are significant opportunities in solutions
  12. 12. What is the greenhouse effect?
  13. 13. The Greenhouse Effect Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere trap some of this heat, keeping the Earth warm. Some becomes heat.Some sunlightis reflected backinto space.
  14. 14. How important is the greenhouse effectto Earth’s climate?
  15. 15. Mercury Venus Earth MarsThe Inner Solar System
  16. 16. Mercury is over 2 ½ times smaller than the Earth Mercury is over 2 ½ times closer to the SunMercury Image: NASA
  17. 17. Image: NASA Average maximum temperature 800oF (427 C) o Average minimum temperature -280oF* (-173 C) o With no greenhouse effect, Mercury cannot retain the energy received from the Sun. Mercury * The coldest temperature ever recorded on Earth was -128.6oF in the middle of Antarctica!
  18. 18. Image: NASA Average global temperature 864oF (462 C) o Despite being further from the Sun, Venus gets hotter than Mercury thanks to its dense atmosphere and immense greenhouse effect. Venus
  19. 19. A Thin Blue Line Without the greenhouse effect, Earth would be a frozen ball of ice, floating in space.The troposphere extends onlyabout 12 miles above theEarth’s surface at itsmaximum… …thinner than an apple’s skin
  20. 20. OK. So, the greenhouse effect is important.But how important is carbon dioxide (CO2)to the greenhouse effect?
  21. 21. Image: NASAEarth’s Atmosphere Oxygen 20.95% Water Vapor 0 – 4% Greenhouse Argon 0.93% Gases Nitrogen 78.08% Carbon Dioxide 0.04% The entire greenhouse effect is dependent on less than 3% of the Earth’s atmosphere Source: Encyclopedia of Earth
  22. 22. The Water Cycle Condensation Precipitation Transpiration Snowmelt Runoff Evaporation Surface Runoff Water vapor cycles through the atmosphere in only 7-10 days.Image concept: NOAA
  23. 23. Water Vapor in the Atmosphere Total Precipitable Water Vapor (mm), May 2009 Data acquired by AIRS, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder on NASAs Aqua Satellite National GeographicNational Geographic Due to its short atmospheric lifetime, water 0 15 30 vapor varies wildly from place to place 45 60
  24. 24. The Carbon Cycle Short Term Emissions Once elevated, CO2 can remain in the Respiration atmosphere forVolcanic Photosynthesis hundreds of yearsEruptions CO2 Exchange of CO2 Long term Exchange of CO2 Fossil Fuel Emissions Waste & Decay of Rock Weathering Dead Organisms Marine Deposits Fossil Fuels Image concept: U.S. National Research Council
  25. 25. Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere Carbon Dioxide in the Mid-Troposphere, July 2009 Data acquired by AIRS, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder on NASAs Aqua Satellite Unlike water vapor, CO2 gets well mixed throughout the atmosphere
  26. 26. The Game Of The Rules Heat Plinko • All heat leaving the surface must eventually Desert Earth Surface Jungle return to space • The longer heat takes to escape, the warmer a region can become on average • Carbon dioxide “pegs” get evenly distributed throughout the atmosphereEarth’s Atmosphere • Water vapor “pegs” vary both laterally and vertically in the atmosphere • As greenhouse gases, both water vapor and carbon dioxide delay heat escaping to space • Heat can be reemitted in any direction • Additional carbon dioxide can remain in the atmosphere for over 100 years Space Result: The effects of additional carbon dioxide are felt everywhere for a very long time Heat Carbon Dioxide Water Vapor
  27. 27. So how are human activities impactingthe level of CO2 in the atmosphere?
  28. 28. Changing the Face of a Planet U.S. Geological Survey Deforestation is the 2nd largest human contributor to CO2 emissions after fossil fuel combustionThe Bagger 288 is ½ the height of the Empire State Building In 2008, there were 852 surface coal mines in the United States alone Over 1 billion cars drive on the world’s roads Stephen Codrington
  29. 29. Changing the Face of a Planet The impact of humans is unprecedented in the 4.5 billion year history of planet Earth. Source: NASA
  30. 30. How do human emissions of CO2compare to natural emissions?
  31. 31. The Carbon Balance, Single Year – 1990sFossil Fuel Vegetation Ocean Carbon Balance Burning & Land + 444 + 332 Sources + 23 +23 +444 -450 -444 +332 -332 -338 - 450 Sinks - 338 + 11 TOTAL Industrial emissions are throwing off a natural balance achieved over thousands of yearsFigures are in billion tonnes of CO2 Image concept: Skeptical Science Data source: IPCC AR4
  32. 32. Tipping the Scale, Carbon Accumulation Sources Sinks % of 5K Day 1: +1 lb. 0.02% Day 2: +2 lb. 0.04% Day 3: +3 lb. 0.06% . . 5,000 . . 5,000 5,000 . . Day 30: +30 lb. 0.60% 5,000 TOTAL: 465 lb. 9.30% While single year emissions are dismissible, multi-year accumulation can result in a climate imbalance
  33. 33. Global Fossil Fuel Carbon Emissions 9000 8000 2010 emissions jumped by 564 million metric tons,Million Metric Tons of Carbon an increase of 6% over 2009 levels, a new annual 7000 record and exceeding worst-case scenarios Total 6000 Liquid fuel 5000 Solid fuel 4000 Gas fuel 3000 Cement 2000 Gas flares 1000 0 81 96 11 26 41 56 71 86 01 16 31 46 91 06 51 66 61 76 17 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 19 20 17 17 19 19 Year Source: U.S. DOE CDIAC
  34. 34. Atmospheric CO2for 800,000 Years“Generally accepted modern understanding of the global carbon cycleindicates that climate effects of CO2 releases to the atmosphere willpersist for tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of years into the future.”- Archer et al., Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Jan 2009 Source: US Global Change Research Program
  35. 35. Checkpoint The greenhouse effect is vitally important to the Earth’s climate This greenhouse effect is provided by an incredibly thin atmosphere Over 97% of the atmosphere has nothing to do with this effect Water vapor and CO2 are the primary natural greenhouse gases Water vapor is far too short-lived to drive long-term climate CO2 levels can remain elevated for hundreds, even thousands, of years The effects from CO2 on the atmosphere are both global and long-term Human actions have risen CO2 levels by 40% in just over 100 years
  36. 36. What about natural climate influences?
  37. 37. Scientific evidence strongly indicates that natural influencescannot explain the rapid increase in global near-surfacetemperatures observed during the second half of the 20thcentury…A particular concern is that atmospheric levels ofcarbon dioxide may be rising faster than at anytime in Earth’s history… – American Institute of Physics
  38. 38. Earth’s Orbital Cycles North VegaCurrent climate influence: Cooling Star 22.5o 24.5o Eccentricity Obliquity Precession 100,000 years 41,000 years 22,000 years
  39. 39. “The most significant climate impacts from volcanic Volcanic Eruptions injections into the stratosphere come from aerosols [which] increase the reflection of radiation from the Sun back into space, cooling the Earths lower atmosphere or troposphere.” - U.S. Geological Survey Mt. Pinatubo, Philippines, 1991 Mt. St. Helens, United States, 1980 El Chichón, Mexico, 1982U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Geological Survey Climate influence: Cooling USGS: Human activities release over 100 times more CO2 annually than all of the Earth’s volcanoes combined. Eyjafjallajokull, Iceland, 2011
  40. 40. “ENSO is the most important coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon Climate Factors to cause global climate variability on interannual time scales.” - Dr. Klaus Wolter, NOAA ESRL, Jan 2011 0.6 30-year climate influence: Stasis 0.4 0.2 0-0.2-0.4-0.6 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 1997 2011 1989 1991 1993 1987 1983 1985 1995 1979 1981 30-year climate influences ENSO El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (Source: NOAA CPC) (normalized)
  41. 41. “The PDO has experienced phase shifts that coincided with the Climate Factors major periods of warming and cooling in the 20th Century.” - Dr. Roy Spencer, UAH, Oct 2008 0.6 30-year climate influence: Cooling 0.4 0.2 0 ENSO-0.2-0.4-0.6 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 1997 2011 1989 1991 1993 1987 1983 1985 1995 1979 1981 30-year climate influences ENSO PDO Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (Source: JISAO) (normalized)
  42. 42. “The Earth’s temperature has risen dramatically in the last 30 years Climate Factors while the solar brightness has not appreciably increased in this time.” - Prof. Sami K. Solanki, Max-Planck Society, Aug 2004 0.6 30-year climate influence: Cooling 0.4 0.2 0 ENSO PDO-0.2-0.4-0.6 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 1997 2011 1989 1991 1993 1987 1983 1985 1995 1979 1981 30-year climate influences ENSO PDO TSI Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) (Source: PMOD / WRC) (normalized)
  43. 43. “CO2 concentration...shows no signs of leveling, thus leaving little doubt Climate Factors that the global CO2 …will be reaching 390 ppm by the end of 2010.” - NASA DISC, Jul 2010 0.6 30-year climate influence: Warming 0.4 0.2 0 ENSO PDO-0.2 TSI-0.4-0.6 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 1997 2011 1989 1991 1993 1987 1983 1985 1995 1979 1981 30-year climate influences ENSO PDO TSI CO2 Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2) (Source: ESRL) (normalized)
  44. 44. Half of the globe has warmed at least 0.5oF in the past 30 years, while Climate Factors half of that - a full quarter of the globe - warmed at least one full degree. - Dr. John Christy, UAH, Dec 2008 0.6 30-year temperature trend: Warming CO2 0.4 0.2 0 ENSO PDO-0.2 TSI-0.4-0.6 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 1997 2011 1989 1991 1993 1987 1983 1985 1995 1979 1981 30-year climate influences ENSO PDO TSI CO2 Near Surface Temperature (Source: UAH T2LT) (normalized)
  45. 45. What about the Sun?
  46. 46. Solar Activity vs. Global Temperature 1368 Temperatures have risen for more than 30 0.5 1367.5 years while solar activity has declinedTotal Solar Irradiance (W/m2) Temperature Change (°C) 1367 0 1366.5 -0.5 1366 -1 1365.5 1365 -1.5 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 Source: NASA GISS, Max Planck Institute, World Radiation Center
  47. 47. Source: UAH Global Atmospheric Temperatures 2 Lower Stratosphere 1.5 Cooling 1 0.5 0-0.5 -1 0.8 0.6 Lower Troposphere Warming 0.4 0.2 0-0.2-0.4 Increases in greenhouse gases cause tropospheric warming-0.6 and stratospheric cooling, unlike increased solar activity-0.8 1991 1993 1997 1999 2001 2005 2007 2009 1995 2003 2011 1979 1983 1985 1987 1989 1981
  48. 48. Nighttime Heat Records – July 2011An increased greenhouse effect causes an increase in nighttime temperatures Source: NOAA
  49. 49. What difference does a littlewarming make?
  50. 50. Rises in temperature will have complex and frequentlylocalised effects on weather, but an overall increase inextreme weather conditions and changes inprecipitation patterns are probable, resulting inflooding and drought…The repercussions for agriculture andecology are likely to be severe. – Society of Biology, UK
  51. 51. Loading the Climate Dice Probability of occurrence Current climate Future climate More hot weather More Less Increase in extreme cold average hot weather temperature weather Cold Average Hot Temperature
  52. 52. Record Highs and Lows in the U.S. 1950s 60s 70s 80s 90s 2000s record highs record lows 2.04:1 1.36:1 1.09:1 1.14:1 0.77:1 0.78:1 Source: NCAR
  53. 53. Precipitation Extremes – May 2011 35.2% of the country Record Driest severe to extreme wet Much Below Normal Below Normal Near Normal Above Normal Much Above Normal Record Wettest 1 = Driest 117 = Wettest May 2011 saw more of the country experiencing 19.5% of the countrysevere to extreme wet and dry conditions at the same severe to extreme dry time than during any other month in history
  54. 54. Texas Drought 2011 Source: Dr. John Nielsen-Gammon Texas State Climatologist 2011
  55. 55. Texas Drought 2011Driest 4 month period in historyDriest 6 month period in historyDriest 12 month period in history % of Level Description State D4 Exceptional Drought 87.99 D3 Extreme Drought 96.99 D2 Severe Drought 99.16 D1 Moderate Drought 100.00 October 4, 2011 D0 Abnormally Dry 100.00Nothing No Drought 0.00 Source: NOAA NCDC
  56. 56. Can’t we just adapt?
  57. 57. Dust build-up causes power outages Texas Drought 2011 CenterPoint Energy Ken ChildressTexas Parks and Wildlife Cattle population reduced by over 650,000 Eric Gay / AP Jay Janner / American-Statesman Water shortages throughout state Up to 500 million trees lost Sources: 3.5 million acres burned in wildfires Texas Forest Service Texas AgriLife Ext Robert Burns / Texas AgriLife Extension NOAA $7.6 billion in agricultural losses
  58. 58. U.S. Extremes 2011 Snow melt and massive rainfall lead Steve Zumwalt / FEMA to record flooding on Mississippi and Missouri riversAssociated Press Two largest tornado outbreaks in history occur in a single month. Dusty Compton / AP Arizona (500,000 acres) and New Mexico (300,000 acres) have their largest wildfires on record. Scott Olson / Getty Images New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana experience their most intense drought on record.
  59. 59. Satellite Images: Google Earth U.S. Spring Tornadoes – 1950-2011 Mike Gullett / APTornado Count Joplin, Missouri Dusty Compton / AP June 25, 2011 May 16, 2009 Tuscaloosa, Alabama
  60. 60. 14 Billion Dollar Events – U.S. in 2011$1.8 billion Groundhog Day blizzard Upper Midwest flooding $2.0 billion January 29-February 3, 2011 Summer, 2011 $10.2 billion Southeast/Ohio Valley/Midwest tornadoes April 25-28, 2011$1.3 billion Midwest/Southeast tornadoes and severe weather Rockies and Midwest Severe Weather $1.0 billion June 18-22, 2011 July 10-14, 2011 $2.2 billion Southeast/Midwest tornadoes $3.5 billion Mississippi River flooding April 8-11, 2011 Spring-Summer, 2011$10.0 billion Southern Plains/Southwest drought and heatwave Tropical Storm Lee $1.0 billion Spring-Fall, 2011 September, 2011 $9.1 billion Midwest/Southeast tornadoes Midwest/Southeast tornadoes $2.8 billion May 22-27, 2011 April 4-5, 2011 $1.0 billion Texas, New Mexico, Arizona wildfires Spring-Fall, 2011 $2.1 billion Midwest/Southeast tornadoes Hurricane Irene $7.3 billion April 14-16, 2011 August 20-29, 2011Source: NOAA
  61. 61. Russia endures worst heat Global Extremes 2010-2011 wave in over 130 years (2010) Sebastien Nogier / ReutersNOAA Flooding in France worst since 1837 (2010) PBS Extra-tropical cyclone brings hurricane winds to Alaska (2011) East Africa’s worst drought in 60 years China: Worst drought in a leaves 10 million in need of aid (2011) century impacts over 60 million (2010) Gabriel Elizondo AP Tracy Woods / AP Thailand receives over 7 ft of rain, 41% above average (2011) Adrees Latif / Reuters Amazon experiences 2nd “100-year-drought” in 5 years (2010) Wettest spring on record floods eastern Australia (2011)
  62. 62. Assessments conducted by the intelligence communityindicate that climate change could have significantgeopolitical impacts around the world, contributingto poverty, environmental degradation, and the furtherweakening of fragile governments…While climate changealone does not cause conflict, it may act as an accelerant ofinstability or conflict…. – U.S. Department of Defense
  63. 63. Flood image: Daniel Berehulak / Getty Images Pakistan Flooding 2010 Shakil Adil / AP 2,000 people killed 20 million people affected 20% of the country underwater$9.7 billion in damages “The crisis may undermine the already waning legitimacy of the civilian government by demonstrating its ineffectiveness to large numbers of Pakistanis in need of public services, while improving the status of Pakistan’s powerful military by the more visible role it played in providing disaster relief. It may also provide militants an opportunity to garner favor with affected communities by giving militants an opportunity to demonstrate that they can provide assistance in areas where the government is absent.” - Congressional Research Service, November 2010
  64. 64. Vibrant seascape at CastelloOcean Acidification Aragonese near the coast of Italy David-Liittschwager / National GeographicStation ALOHA Curve Source: c-moreCO2 Rising atmospheric CO2 results pH in lower oceanic pH A few hundred yards away where CO2 from a volcanic vent acidifies the water Coral reefs provide homes for up to 25% of oceanic life & up to a billion people rely on fish as their main source of protein
  65. 65. Ocean Acidification Ocean acidity has increased 30% since the start of the Industrial Revolution Pteropods are at the base of many oceanic food chainsRuss Hopcroft / UAF Morgan Bond Patrick Gijsbers NOAA Pteropod Humpback Whales Salmon Cod A pteropod shell placed in sea water with pH and carbonate levels projected for the year 2100 Pteropod images: National Geographic
  66. 66. The current rate of change is much more rapidthan during any event over the last 65 millionyears. These changes in ocean chemistry are irreversiblefor many thousands of years, and the biologicalconsequences could last much longer. – InterAcademy Panel
  67. 67. Checkpoint No group of natural factors has been found to explain recent warming Without human influence, global temperatures would likely be cooling Solar activity has declined over the last 30 years while temps have risen Rises in average temp bring more hot weather and less cold weather Rises in average temp can also exacerbate extreme weather events Inaction on climate change has its own associated costs Acidification can impact entire food chains and human populations
  68. 68. Why the urgency to take action?
  69. 69. Climate Inertia “The feeling is that if things are getting bad, you hit the stop button. But even if you do, the climate continues to change.” - Dr. Gerald Meehl, U.S. National Center for Atmospheric ResearchRising atmospheric temperatures take time tobe reflected throughout the climate system Once underway, changes have momentum and require time to slow or reverse
  70. 70. Climate Feedbacks More WarmingFeedbacks are natural responses that Increased high clouds trapencourage either more or less warming more heat near the surface More Warming Less Warming Increased low clouds Melting ice & permafrost release reflect more sunlight greenhouse gases into the atmosphere More Warming More water vapor leads to increased greenhouse effect More Warming Less Warming Melting leads to less Plants absorb more carbon ice reflecting sunlight from the atmosphere Less Warming Oceans absorb more carbon from the atmosphere
  71. 71. Tipping PointsTipping points are points beyond which large-scale change is self-sustaining and inevitable. Continual small-scale stress on a system can reach a point of large- scale change.
  72. 72. Tipping Points Feedback Shift Less to More Slowing or reversal of forest carbon intake Tipping points are points beyond which large- Warming Warming scale change is self-sustaining and inevitable. Two “one-hundred-year” droughts in 5 years turnedNational Geographic Amazon rainforests from carbon sinks to carbon sources Bark beetles have devastated massive forest regions throughout the U.S. & Canada Canada Ministry of Forests “The carbon-regulating services of forests are at risk of being lost…this would result in the release of huge quantities of carbon to the atmosphere.” - International Union of Forest Research Organizations (IUFRO) James Woodcock / Billings Gazette
  73. 73. Tipping Points Feedback Shift Less to More Slowing of ocean carbon intakeTipping points are points beyond which large- Warming Warmingscale change is self-sustaining and inevitable. Global Sea Surface Temperatures (April 18, 2000) Colder ocean waters Source: NASA MODIS Oceans Group can absorb more carbon dioxide than warmer waters At least two studies have found the carbon-absorbing ability of both the North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean to be slowing. “We estimate that the Southern Ocean sink of CO2 has weakened between 1981 and 2004…We attribute this weakening to the observed increase in Southern Ocean winds resulting from human activities.” - Le Quéré et al., Science, June 2007 N.Metzl, August 2000, oceanographic cruise OISO-5
  74. 74. Tipping Points Large-scale methane releases from melting permafrost Tipping points are points beyond which large- scale change is self-sustaining and inevitable. Sergey ZimovNSIDC Methane is a strong greenhouse gas. Katey Walter Permafrost contains about 1,400 gigatons of carbon, more than 1½ times the carbon currently in the atmosphere “High latitude wetlands are currently only a small source of methane, but for these emissions to increase by a third in just five years is very significant. It shows that even a relatively small amount of warming can cause a large increase in the amount of methane emissions.” - Dr. Paul Palmer, Edinburgh University, January 2010
  75. 75. What can we do about it?
  76. 76. Silver Buckshot There is no single solution to the climate change problem Energy Renewable Efficiency Energy Nuclear & Low Carbon EnergyPiccolo Namek Reforestation & Preservation Adaptation & Mitigation Stonehaven Productions Nick Dennison
  77. 77. Never Underestimate What’s PossibleNASA JPL NASA October 4, 1957 July 20, 1969 Sputnik, the first manmade object Neil Armstrong and Buz Aldrin to orbit the Earth, is launched become the first men on the moon
  78. 78. Never Underestimate What’s PossibleU.S. Army IBM 1946 2011 ENIAC, the first computer, is Watson, a computer, defeats the top announced as the “first giant brain” two “Jeopardy!” champions in history
  79. 79. Checkpoint Human society depends on climate stability and predictability Earth’s climate vitally depends on the greenhouse effect Greenhouse gases are only a tiny fraction of Earth’s very thin atmosphere CO2 is the primary long-term driver of changes in the greenhouse effect Industrial activities have elevated CO2 higher than in over 800,000 years Rises in average temperature can exacerbate extreme weather events Climate tipping points can result in rapid, large-scale changes Climate change is having and will have a substantial economic impact Action related to climate change must be broad-based and global
  80. 80. Consensus Scientific OrganizationsThe following global scientific organizations acknowledge the impact of carbon emissions fromhuman activities on global climate and the global biosphere.Academia Brasiliera de Ciências, Brazil Albanian Academy of SciencesAcademia Chilena de Ciencias American Association for the Advancement of ScienceAcademia das Ciencias de Lisboa American Association of State ClimatologistsAcademia de Ciencias de la República Dominicana American Chemical SocietyAcademia de Ciencias Físicas, Matemáticas y Naturales de Venezuela American Geophysical UnionAcademia de Ciencias Medicas, Fisicas y Naturales de Guatemala American Institute of Biological SciencesAcademia Mexicana de Ciencias,Mexico American Meteorological SocietyAcademia Nacional de Ciencias del Peru American Society of AgronomyAcademia Sinica, Taiwan, China American Society of Plant BiologistsAcademy of Athens American Statistical AssociationAcademy of Science of South Africa, South Africa Association of Ecosystem Research CentersAcademy of Sciences of the Czech Republic Australian Academy of ScienceAcademy of Sciences of the Islamic Republic of Iran Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic SocietyAcademy of Scientific Research and Technology, Egypt (AMOS)Academy of the Royal Society of New Zealand Bangladesh Academy of SciencesAcadémie des Sciences et Techniques du Sénégal Botanical Society of AmericaAcadémie des Sciences, France British Antarctic SurveyAccademia Nazionale dei Lincei, Italy Bulgarian Academy of SciencesAfrica Centre for Climate and Earth Systems Science Cameroon Academy of SciencesAfrican Academy of Sciences Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic SocietyAkademi Sains Malaysia Caribbean Academy of Sciences
  81. 81. Consensus Scientific OrganizationsThe following global scientific organizations acknowledge the impact of carbon emissions fromhuman activities on global climate and the global biosphere.Chinese Academy of Sciences International Council for ScienceColombian Academy of Exact, Physical and Natural Sciences International Union of Geodesy and GeophysicsCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research International Union of Pure and Applied PhysicsOrganisation, Australia Kenya National Academy of SciencesCroatian Academy of Arts and Sciences Korean Academy of Science and TechnologyCrop Science Society of America Kosovo Academy of Sciences and ArtsCuban Academy of Sciences Mauritius Academy of Science and TechnologyDelegation of the Finnish Academies of Science and Letters Montenegrin Academy of Sciences and ArtsDeutsche Akademie der Naturforscher, Leopoldina, Germany National Academy of Exact, Physical and Natural Sciences,Ecological Society of America ArgentinaEuropean Geosciences Union National Academy of Sciences of the Kyrgyz RepublicEuropean Science Foundation – Marine Board National Academy of Sciences, Sri LankaFederation of Australian Scientific and Technological National Academy of Sciences, United States of AmericaSocieties National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationGeological Society of America National Council of Engineers AustraliaGeological Society of Australia National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research, NewGeorgian Academy of Sciences ZealandIndian National Science Academy, India National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationIndonesian Academy of Sciences Natural Science Collections AllianceIslamic World Academy of Sciences Nigerian Academy of SciencesIsrael Academy of Sciences and Humanities Norwegian Academy of Sciences and Letters
  82. 82. Consensus Scientific OrganizationsThe following global scientific organizations acknowledge the impact of carbon emissions fromhuman activities on global climate and the global biosphere.Organization of Biological Field Stations Serbian Academy of Sciences and ArtsPakistan Academy of Sciences Slovak Academy of SciencesPalestine Academy for Science and Technology Slovenian Academy of Sciences and ArtsRoyal Academies for Science and the Arts of Belgium Society for Industrial and Applied MathematicsRoyal Academy of Exact, Physical and Natural Sciences of Spain Society of Systematic BiologistsRoyal Danish Academy of Sciences and Letters Soil Science Society of AmericaRoyal Irish Academy Sudanese National Academy of ScienceRoyal Meteorological Society Tanzania Academy of SciencesRoyal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences Turkish Academy of SciencesRoyal Scientific Society of Jordan TWAS, The Academy of Sciences for the DevelopingRoyal Society of Canada, Canada WorldRoyal Society, United Kingdom Uganda National Academy of SciencesRoyal Swedish Academy of Sciences Union der Deutschen Akademien der WissenschaftenRussian Academy of Sciences University Corporation for Atmospheric ResearchScience Council of Japan World Forestry CongressScientific Committee on Antarctic Research Zimbabwe Academy of Sciences
  83. 83. Additional ResourcesVisit the following resources for additional information on global climate change. Fresh Air. The Scent of Pine – Fresh Air. The Scent of Pine – YouTube Channel – U.S. National Academy of Sciences – Climate Choices – NASA – Global Climate Change – NOAA Climate Services – U.S. EPA – Climate Change – Nature – Climate Change – UK Met Office – Climate Change – UCAR: In Depth – Weather on Steroids – Climate Central –
  84. 84. Resources & References
  85. 85. Resources & References Slide 5 – Global Surface Temperatures – NASA GISS Slide 6 – Climate Change Indicators – Glacial Retreat – World Glacier Monitoring Service – Upper Ocean Heat Content – NOAA PMEL – Is Antarctica Melting? – NASA – Arctic Sea Ice Extent – University of Illinois – Arctic Sea Ice Volume – Polar Science Center – Sea Level Rise – NOAA NCDC – Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence; Willett, Katharine M. et al.; Nature; DOI:10.1038/nature06207; Oct 2007 – Humans have made the skies more moist; Hopkin, Michael; Nature; DOI:10.1038/news.2007.158; Oct 2007 – A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems; Parmesan, Camille & Gary Yohe; Nature; DOI:10.1038/nature01286; Jan 2003 – Guardian – Arctic Permafrost Leaking Methane at Record Levels, Figures Show (Jan 14, 2010) Slide 8 – U.S. National Research Council – America’s Climate Choices Slide 13 – The Greenhouse Effect – Encyclopedia of Earth – The Greenhouse Effect Slide 16 – Mercury – Mercury Transit – NASA SOHO Slide 17 – Mercury – Temperature Range – National Geographic – Earth’s coldest temperature – Live Science – NASA: Messenger
  86. 86. Resources & References Slide 18 – Venus – Venus – National Geographic Slide 19 – A Thin Blue Line – How High Does the Atmosphere Go? – UCAR – NOAA: National Weather Service - Layers of the Atmosphere Slide 21 – Earth’s Atmosphere – Atmospheric Composition – Encyclopedia of Earth – Greenhouse Gases – NOAA NCDC – Image: Thin Blue Line – NASA Slide 22 – The Water Cycle – YouTube – NASA: Earth Science Week – Water. Water, Everywhere! Slide 23 – Water Vapor in the Atmosphere – Global Total Precipitable Water Vapor – AIRS – NASA JPL Slide 24 – The Carbon Cycle – U.S. National Research Council (NRC) – Ocean Acidification: Starting with the Science Slide 25 – Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere – Global Carbon Dioxide Transport – AIRS – NASA JPL Slide 28 – Changing the Face of a Planet – NASA Earth Observatory – Tropical Deforestation – World Vehicle Population Tops 1 Billion Units – WardsAuto (Aug 15, 2011) – CO2 Emissions from Forest Loss; van der Werf, et al.; Nature Geoscience; DOI:10.1038/ngeo671; Nov 2009 – Bagger 288 – Wikipedia – Most Requested Statistics – U.S. Coal Industry – National Mining Association
  87. 87. Resources & References Slide 29 – Changing the Face of a Planet – Earth at Night – NASA Slide 31 – The Carbon Balance, Single Year – IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 Slide 33 – Global Fossil Fuel Carbon Emissions – Global Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions – CDIAC – Washington Post – Global CO2 emissions rising faster than worst-case scenarios (Nov 4, 2011) – Record High 2010 Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Combustion and Cement Manufacture – CDIAC Slide 34 – Atmospheric CO2 for 800,000 Years – Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. – U.S. Global Change Research Program (2009) – Atmospheric Lifetime of Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide; Archer, David et al.; Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences; DOI:10.1146/; Jan 2009 Slide 37 – American Institute of Physics Quote – AIP – Statement on Human Impacts on Climate Change Slide 38 – Earth’s Orbital Cycles – NOAA – Astronomical Theory of Climate Change Slide 39 – Volcanic Eruptions – USGS – Volcanic Gases and Climate Change Overview Slide 40 – Climate Factors – ENSO – NOAA CPC – ENSO Impacts – NOAA ESRL – Multivariate ENSO Index Slide 41 – Climate Factors – PDO – JISAO – PDO Index – Roy W. Spencer: Global Warming as a Natural Response to Cloud Changes Associated with the PDO
  88. 88. Resources & References Slide 42 – Climate Factors – TSI – Max Planck Institute – Solar Variability and Climate – World Radiation Center (WRC) – Solar Constant – PMOD/WRC – Solar Irradiance Composite Slide 43 – Climate Factors – CO2 – NASA GES DISC – New AIRS data view; rising global CO2 – NOAA ESRL – Atmospheric CO2 Slide 44 – Near Surface Temperature – UAH: Earth has warmed 0.4 C in 30 years – UAH NSSTC – T2LT, Lower Troposphere Slide 47 – Global Atmospheric Temperatures – UAH NSSTC – T2LT, Lower Troposphere – UAH NSSTC – LS, Lower Stratosphere Slide 48 – Nighttime Heat Records – July 2011 – NOAA – Heat Dominates the U.S. in July Slide 50 – Society of Biology Quote – Society of Biology – Climate Change Policy Issue Slide 51 – Loading the Climate Dice – Southwest Climate Change Network – Future Climate Shift – Dr. Kevin Trenberth – Attribution of climate variations and trends to human influences and natural variability Slide 52 – Record Highs and Lows in the U.S. – NCAR: Record high temperatures far outpace record lows across U.S.
  89. 89. Resources & References Slide 53 – Precipitation Extremes – May 2011 – NOAA NCDC: U.S. National Percent Area Severely to Extremely Dry and Severely to Extremely Wet – NOAA NCDC: State of the Climate – May 2011 – Dr. Jeff Masters - U.S. weather in 2011: unprecedented rains and wet/dry extremes Slide 54 – Texas Drought 2011 – Climate Abyss: Texas Drought - Spot the Outlier Slide 55 – Texas Drought 2011 – NOAA NCDC: State of the Climate, Drought – September 2011 – U.S. Drought Monitor – Archives Slide 57 – Texas Drought 2011 – Drought Blamed for Texas City Power Outages (Apr 26, 2011) – Updated 2011 Texas agricultural drought losses total $7.62 billion (Mar 21, 2012) – Wildfires rip through sun-scorched Texas (Sep 5, 2011) – NPR – Drought-Stricken Texas Town Forced To Truck In Water (Feb 7, 2012) – Texas Forest Service – Estimates Show Hundreds of Millions of Trees Killed by 2011 Drought (Dec 19, 2011) – Texas Tribune – Droughts Economic Impact Spreading Across Texas (Oct 27, 2011) – Houston Chronicle - Texas must decide on water plan, lawmakers say (Mar 22, 2012) Slide 58 – U.S. Extremes 2011 – NOAA NCDC: State of the Climate, Wildfires – Annual 2011 – NOAA NCDC: Spring 2011 U.S. Climate Extremes Slide 59 – U.S. Spring Tornadoes – 1950-2011 – NOAA NCDC: Spring 2011 U.S. Climate Extremes – NOAA NCDC: State of the Climate, Tornadoes – Annual 2011
  90. 90. Resources & References Slide 60 – 14 Billion Dollar Events – U.S. in 2011 – NOAA: Extreme Weather 2011 Slide 61 – Global Extremes 2010-2011 – NOAA NCDC: State of the Climate, Global Analysis – Annual 2010 – NOAA NCDC: State of the Climate, Global Analysis – Annual 2011 – N.Y. Times – Relentless Heat Wave Roasts Russia (Aug 9, 2010) – Science Daily – Two Severe Amazon Droughts in Five Years Alarms Scientists (Feb 3, 2011) – BBC – Severe Drought Hits South-West China (Mar 25, 2010) – Reuters – Thai Flood Frustration Grows (Nov 1, 2011) – BBC – Twenty Dead in Southern France Flash Floods (Jun 17, 2010) – CBS – 40-Year Bering Sea Storm Thrashing Alaska (Nov 9, 2011) – N.Y. Times – Africa Drought Endangers Millions (Jul 5, 2011) – Boston Globe – Australia Flooding (Jan 3, 2011) Slide 62 – U.S. Department of Defense Quote – U.S. D.O.D. – Quadrennial Defense Review – February 2010 Slide 63 – Pakistan Flooding 2010 – Congressional Research Service – Flooding in Pakistan: Overview and Issues for Congress (Nov 2010) – AP – Pakistanis Suspect Landowners of Diverting Floods (Sep 6, 2010) – Washington Post – Frustrations Mount in Flood-Devastated Northwestern Pakistan (Aug 2, 2010) – CNN – Wars Reign Over Breaching Levees as Pakistan Grapples with Flooding (Sep 4, 2010)
  91. 91. Resources & References Slide 64 – Ocean Acidification – Ocean Acidification – YouTube Playlist – Resources from the National Research Council’s Ocean Studies Board – ACS – Station ALOHA Stands Sentinel – C-MORE – Rising CO2, Ocean Acidification, and Their Impacts on Marine Microbes – National Geographic – The Acid Sea – WHO – Availability and Consumption of Fish – NOAA PMEL – What is Ocean Acidification? – Ocean Acidification Turns Climate Change Winners into Losers: UBC Research (Feb 18, 2012) – BBC – ‘Jacuzzi vents’ model CO2 future (Feb 19, 2012) Slide 66 – Interacademy Panel Quote – IAP Statement on Ocean Acidification (Jun 2009) Slide 69 – Climate Inertia – The Climate Change Commitment; Wigley, T.M.L.; Science; DOI: 10.1126/science.1103934 – How Much More Global Warming and Sea Level Rise?; Meehl et al.; Science; DOI: 10.1126/science.1106663 – New Scientist – Ocean Heat Store Makes Climate Change Inevitable (Mar 17, 2005) Slide 72 – Tipping Points – IUFRO – Press Release: Adaptation of Forests and People to Climate Change (Apr 17, 2009) – Science Daily – Two Severe Amazon Droughts in Five Years Alarms Scientists (Feb 3, 2011) – British Columbia: Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations – Mountain Pine Beetle – U.S. Forest Service and Colorado State Forest Service: Results of Forest Health Survey (Jan 22, 2010) – Billings Gazette – Pine Beetle Infestation Might Slow (Jan 23, 2010) – Denver Post – Beetle scourge goes from bad to worse (Jan 15, 2008) – Mongabay – Amazon Drought Continues, Worst on Record (Dec 11, 2005) – Science – Amazon’s Carbon Sink Under Threat (Mar 5, 2009)
  92. 92. Resources & References Slide 73 – Tipping Points – NASA Visible Earth – Global Sea Surface Temperature (Apr 18, 2000) – Saturation of the Southern Ocean CO2 Sink Due to Recent Climate Change; Le Quéré, et al.; Science; DOI: 10.1126/science.1136188 – A variable and decreasing sink for atmospheric CO2 in the North Atlantic; Schuster, Ute and Andrew J. Watson; Journal of Geophysical Research; DOI:10.1029/2006JC003941 Slide 74 – Tipping Points – NSIDC – All About Frozen Ground – NSIDC – State of the Cryosphere – Permafrost and Frozen Ground – Guardian – Arctic Permafrost Leaking Methane at Record Levels, Figures Show (Jan 14, 2010) Slide 80 – Consensus Scientific Organizations – The Climate Change Consensus – Fresh Air. The Scent of Pine.