Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Lecture 2-Technology, Innovation and Modern War

12,467 views

Published on

acquisition, ash carter, department of defense, dod, hacking for defense, intlpol 340, joe felter, kill chain, max boot, military innovation, ms&e296, raj shah, requirements, stanford, Steve blank, Technology, Innovation and Modern War

Published in: Education
  • Be the first to comment

Lecture 2-Technology, Innovation and Modern War

  1. Technology, Innovation, and Modern War INTLPOL 340; MS&E 296 Steve Blank, Joe Felter, Raj Shah Lecture 2
  2. Agenda • Summary from Lecture 1 • Lecture • Max Boot
  3. 500 Year-Old Technology Adoption Cycle (1) Technology invention Early Adopter Military Usage Envisioned Holt Tractor
  4. 500 Year-Old Technology Adoption Cycle (2) Technology invention Visionary/Military Usage Envisioned Early Versions Less Capable Then Existing Weapons/ Don’t fit Existing Doctrine Holt Tractor British Mark 5 Tank • Battle of Flers-Courcelette • Battle of Cambrai
  5. 500 Year-Old Technology Adoption Cycle (3) Incumbents - Internal (Leadership) and External (Suppliers, Contractors) Inertia Against Change Fight to Keep Status Quo Existing Doctrine/concept of operations obsolete/don’t make optimal use of new tech The more complex a legacy system is the more inertia to change or replace it
  6. 500 Year-Old Technology Adoption Cycle (4) Rapid Adoption new weapons/ contractors/ doctrine/leadership German Panzer 3 + Radios + Tactical Air + Doctrine • Blitzkrieg • 73 Easting
  7. 500 Year-Old Technology Adoption Cycle (5) Slow Adoption or Crisis • Become 2nd rate power • Lose War
  8. 500 Year-Old Technology Adoption Cycle (6) • Offset Strategy • Win War Slow Adoption or Crisis • Become 2nd rate power • Lose War
  9. Technology Innovation Visionaries See Military Application Early Prototypes Not As Good as Existing Weapons Incumbents Fight to Keep Status Quo Winners Adopt New Tech and Weapons Adoption Creates New Doctrine Offset Strategy / Win War The Technology to Weapons Adoption Cycle 500-year-old ^
  10. 500 Year-Old Technology Adoption Cycle (7) • Technology Leadership is ephemeral • Legacy systems create inertia for adoption of next generation of disruptive tech • Most tech disruption is driven by commercial interests not DOD
  11. Technology Innovation Visionaries See Military Application Early Prototypes Not As Good as Existing Weapons Incumbents Fight to Keep Status Quo Winners Adopt New Tech Adoption Creates New Doctrine Offset Strategy / Win War AI/ML Technology Innovation Visionaries See Military Application Early Prototypes Not As Good as Existing Weapons Incumbents Fight to Keep Status Quo Winners Adopt New Tech Adoption Creates New Doctrine Offset Strategy / Win War Space Cyber Technology Innovation Visionaries See Military Application Early Prototypes Not As Good as Existing Weapons Incumbents Fight to Keep Status Quo Winners Adopt New Tech Adoption Creates New Doctrine Offset Strategy / Win War Technology Innovation Visionaries See Military Application Early Prototypes Not As Good as Existing Weapons Incumbents Fight to Keep Status Quo Winners Adopt New Tech Adoption Creates New Doctrine Offset Strategy / Win War BioTech Technology Innovation Visionaries See Military Application Early Prototypes Not As Good as Existing Weapons Incumbents Fight to Keep Status Quo Winners Adopt New Tech Adoption Creates New Doctrine Offset Strategy / Win War Autonomy Technology Innovation Visionaries See Military Application Early Prototypes Not As Good as Existing Weapons Incumbents Fight to Keep Status Quo Winners Adopt New Tech Adoption Creates New Doctrine Offset Strategy / Win War Hypersonics Today - Multiple Tech Transitions
  12. Result – Obsolescence of Existing Weapons and Doctrine
  13. Technology Innovation Visionaries See Military Application Early Prototypes Not As Good as Existing Weapons Incumbents Fight to Keep Status Quo Winners Adopt New Tech Adoption Creates New Doctrine Offset Strategy / Win War AI/ML Technology Innovation Visionaries See Military Application Early Prototypes Not As Good as Existing Weapons Incumbents Fight to Keep Status Quo Winners Adopt New Tech Adoption Creates New Doctrine Offset Strategy / Win War Space Cyber Technology Innovation Visionaries See Military Application Early Prototypes Not As Good as Existing Weapons Incumbents Fight to Keep Status Quo Winners Adopt New Tech Adoption Creates New Doctrine Offset Strategy / Win War Technology Innovation Visionaries See Military Application Early Prototypes Not As Good as Existing Weapons Incumbents Fight to Keep Status Quo Winners Adopt New Tech Adoption Creates New Doctrine Offset Strategy / Win War BioTech Technology Innovation Visionaries See Military Application Early Prototypes Not As Good as Existing Weapons Incumbents Fight to Keep Status Quo Winners Adopt New Tech Adoption Creates New Doctrine Offset Strategy / Win War Autonomy Technology Innovation Visionaries See Military Application Early Prototypes Not As Good as Existing Weapons Incumbents Fight to Keep Status Quo Winners Adopt New Tech Adoption Creates New Doctrine Offset Strategy / Win War Hypersonics Multiple Challenges Disruptive Technology most commercially available X 2+3 Adversaries near peer/regional/ Finite/Legacy Budget Designed for past threats 88 MDAP’s (Major Defense Acquisition Programs) • F-35/B-21/KC-46 aircraft • Ford-Class Carriers • Columbia-class SSBN • Virginia-class SSN • M-1 tank upgrades al qaeda ISIS China Russia North Korea Iran X Adversaries Have New Doctrines/Operational Concepts What Are Ours?
  14. What Are Some Solutions? • If we understand that tech to weapons is a recognizable pattern… • Agile nations might develop an Innovation Doctrine • A parallel process to the existing requirements and acquisition process • For example, what if services continue to buy incremental improvements, but each would set up parallel OTA-like acquisition for disruptive weapons and doctrine • Use combatant commands like SOCOM as early experiments • What else might we do?
  15. Guest Speaker: Max Boot Max Boot is a historian, best-selling author, columnist, and foreign- policy analyst who has been described by the International Institute for Strategic Studies as one of the “world’s leading authorities on armed conflict.” He is the Jeane J. Kirkpatrick senior fellow in national security studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, a columnist for the Washington Post, and a Global Affairs Analyst for CNN.

×