Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition,TIGPC, Gordian knot Center, DIME-FIL, department of defense, dod, intlpol 340, joe felter, ms&e296, raj shah, stanford, Steve blank, AI, ML, AI/ML, china, unmanned, autonomy, semiconductors
Healthy Minds, Flourishing Lives: A Philosophical Approach to Mental Health a...
Team Short Circuit - 2021 Technology, Innovation & Great Power Competition
1. Miku Yamada
- MIP 23’
- BA Law and Political
Science
Mikk Raud
- MIP 22’
- MA Economics & Mgmt
- BA Law and Politics
David Sprague
- MIP 22’
- BS Systems Engineering
Member #2
- BS Mathematics 23’
Abeer Dahiya
- BA Economics
- BS Mathematical &
Computational Science
Final Problem Statement
How should the US Government
augment the domestic semiconductor
workforce through education and
innovation initiatives to increase its
semiconductor sector
competitiveness?
Original Problem Statement
U.S. semiconductor procurement is
too heavily dependent on TSMC,
which creates a substantial
vulnerability in American
telecommunications, automotive,
military and healthcare supply
chains, especially in the event a PRC
invasion of Taiwan, or other kinetic
disruptions in the Indo-Pacific.
TOTAL INTERVIEWS: 37
Team
ShortCircuit
Youngjun Kwak
- MS Management Science &
Engineering
- BSFS International Political
Economy
2. Getting out of the building...
Academia Think tanks
Investors Industry
Government
3. From chip shortage to a lot more
Different chips, different issues Different players, different priorities
We realized it’s not just about manufacturing
5. First steps...
Week 1
Sky is falling - PLA
shows of force around
Taiwan demonstrate a
potential threat to
U.S.’s semiconductor
supply chain
Week 2
Focus on one aspect of
semiconductor production,
and public-private
partnership solutions
“If you can’t trust your
manufacturer, you can’t trust your
chips” (Stanford EE)
Week 3
Kinetic disruptions are
not the issue...it’s a long-
burn problem
“China’s not going to disrupt
flow from TSMC’s fabs...it
depends on them” (Think
Tank)
6. ...Moments of key discovery
Week 4
US stronghold in
design won’t last
forever
“The US is like a polar bear
sitting on a floating piece of
ice that is constantly
melting.” (Think Tank)
Week 4
Paradigm shift is coming -
in packaging and beyond
“The new industry will be about
system partitioning, as opposed
to single chips. This paradigm
shift will give opportunities for
new players.” (Stanford EE)
Week 5
Hardware innovation is
key for long-term
success
“It’s a major problem that
some suggest there’s no need
to understand how technology
works in the deepest levels.”
(Stanford EE)
Week 6
Pivot from manufacturing to
R&D and education
“Government’s money shouldn’t just
go to TSMC or Intel. Cash should go
to advanced R&D and students. ”
(Former EDA Executive)
Week 6
But - manufacturing is still
critical in the long term
“Nothing is more important than
bringing cutting edge fabs to the
US. We need to colocate
manufacturing with R&D.”
(Manufacturer)
Week 7
Start from K-12
“We need to start way earlier
in the education pipeline,
addressing inspiring students
and getting them curious. Just
like Einstein got hooked by
seeing a compass.” (Think
Tank)
7. Key stakeholders - risks and priorities
Lack of sufficient
research funding
Loss of high quality
researchers
Academia
Better research
funding & incentives
to work at US
universities &
research orgs
Lack of tax
incentives
Strict immigration
policies
Industry
Talent & workforce
development &
retention
Sparse deal flow
High capex, low
initial RoE, high
B2E/strong IP
Investors
“Priming the
pump”, believable
success of VC model
to hardware
Heavy
manufacturing
dependence on
East Asia
China’s advances
US Govt
Build fabs &
eventually build up
manufacturing
ecosystem
Hardware
coursework less
accessible
Less employment
opportunities vs.
software
Students
Develop hardware
curricula encouraging
entrepreneurship &
innovation
Risks are multifaceted & shared by many stakeholders
Challenges are interconnected
Education is the missing piece
8. “I worked on a hardware startup and I
talked to a few VCs, as soon as they were
hearing hardware, they would lose
interest.”
- Student
“China will very soon have their
own design and EDA capability.”
- Industry
“New ways of doing things won’t
come from Intel or the likes, they
start from universities.”
- Academia
“All high-tech requires skills that are
not grown overnight. If you lose those
skills, you also lose skills to innovate
the next big thing.”
- Think tank
Why education & innovation?
Potential for new paradigm
shift
Eroding US strengths
Essential to maintain
advantage
Overlooked & underfunded
9. Investment Strategy for Education and
Innovation (Using NASA Case Study)
KEY TAKEAWAY:
Education should receive a
quarter of every billion invested
in the semiconductor industry
10. Our Solution:
Incentivize Hardware Education and
Innovation
K12-STEM initiatives to
spur early interest
Improving
undergraduate access
to industry
Underwrite appropriate
financial risk
Design courses to
establish link between
hardware & software
‘Fab in the box’ for
accessible innovation
tools
High school
hackathons and
competitions
Leverage venture equity
for hardware
acceleration
Modernize hardware
curricula, across the
board
Launch fabternships
with TSMC, Intel etc.
Courses linking market
insights with hardware
innovation and ventures
Expert-led fund, using
public-private money to
generate flow
Experimental lab
classes, like e-waste
teardowns
11. Validating our solution
Academia Industry
Investors
YES
But we need
interesting
classes to get
hooked by
hardware
Students US Govt
YES
We need
balanced
curricula that
target a
diverse array
of students
YES
We need a
greater role
for experts in
the VC
process; K-12
education
will bring
young talent
YES
We need co-
location of
industry and
education to
unlock EoS
PENDING
However, the
principal
author of the
CHIPS Act
supports our
discovery
12. Next steps
● Exploring the opportunity to work with the Defense
Investor Network and MITRE
● Considering continuation of the project at H4D
during the spring quarter
● In continuing talks with DARPA, NVIDIA, EU
Commission, Synopsys, CSET at Georgetown
13. Recommended Policy Component BEAR CASE
(We overestimate US capabilities and underestimate adversaries;
worst-case outcomes)
Educational overhaul package (redesigned EE
curricula, table-top fab, institutional funding etc.)
● Fail to spark sufficient interest in hardware/EE
● Expansion of resources available to undergrads at a selection of
universities following our top-down strategy
Investor overhaul package (establish expert-led
fund, underwrite risk, tax breaks)
● Mid-term realignment toward PRC capital in non-DefAdjSecs
● Political backlash against PE tax breaks in the future
● Lack of deal flow/failures disincentivizes future growth
Industrial overhaul package (priming the pump
via supply-chain certification, fabrication
investment, H-1B/EB-1 visa expansion)
● Supply chain certification creates cost overruns for govt, industry
fails to match existing efficiency/productivity standards
● We’re still importing technical expertise by 2031
The Bottom Line: Doing Something Badly Might Be Better Than Nothing At All (at least in education and R&D)
Appendix - Likely challenges to our solution
14. ● Premise: Select a pool of experts from academia
and industry, selected on the basis of pure
expertise on fundamentals of semiconductor
research.
● Capitalize them with joint-public and private
investment, with an open mandate to invest in
ideas they are party to, either through their
students or research.
● Condition: this funding must go toward making the
product of that research into either a company or
a deployable solution for a current problem
implemented by another company.
● Recommended initial fund size: US$3bn (2.5bn
govt., 0.5bn private equity)
Core Problem Hypothesis:
Investment professionals in the venture capital
space have poor knowledge of fundamental
science and consequently utilize ill-suited
valuation techniques, vastly undervaluing the
potential of modern hardware solutions in the
semiconductor space.
Another Big Problem:
Experts in this space are confined largely to
academia or consulting roles for large
corporations, and do not have an incentive or role
to play in the venture space.
We want to connect our expert minds to capital,
to create a model for leveraging existing expertise
to generate returns in what we strongly believe is
an under-invested in industry.
Appendix - Whiz Kid Capital, Inc.
15. Appendix - list of interviewees
Academia
1 John Hennessy
Professor of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, former Stanford President, currently Chairman
of Alphabet, Inc.
2 Subhasish Mitra
Professor of Electrical Engineering and of Computer Science at Stanford University and former Principal
Engineer, Intel Corporation
3 Jennifer Dionne Senior Associate Vice Provost for Research Platforms/Shared Facilities, Professor of MatSci
4 Priyanka Raina Professor of EE at Stanford
5 Jim Plummer Professor of EE and MatSci, Former Dean of Engineering, Boards of Intel and Cadence
6 Byung Hoon Lee Professor of EE at POSTECH
7 Young Ja Bae Professor of Diplomacy at Konkuk University, Korea
8 Tom Lee Professor of EE at Stanford, Former Microelectronics Director at DARPA
9 Tadahiro Kuroda Professor, Director, Graduate School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo
10 Kyle Squires Dean, ASU Fulton Schools of Engineering
16. Appendix - list of interviewees
11 John Shen Professor of EE at Carnegie Mellon University
Industry
1 Antun Domic Former CTO of Synopsys
2 Jeff Rittener Chief Trade Officer at Intel, former Chief Government Affairs Officer
3 Peter Cleveland Vice President of Global Policy, TSMC
4 Rupert Hammond-Chambers President, U.S.-Taiwan Business Council
5 Edlyn Levine Chief Technologist at MITRE Accelerator
6 Jimmy Goodrich Vice President of Global Policy at SIA
7 Richard Lin Head of Semiconductor Group, Egon Zehnder
17. Appendix - list of interviewees
8 Nerissa Draeger Director of Global University Engagements at Lam Research
9 Bob Colwell Former Chief Architect at Intel, Former Director of Microsystems at DARPA
10 Gene Irisari Vice President for Public Affairs and Head of Semiconductor Policy at Samsung
11 Matt Johnson CEO GQ Quantum
12 Tim Donoghue Senior Program Manager at BMNT
13 Claire Sanderson Senior Director, Global Government Affairs at TSMC
Investors
1 Heather Richman Founder, Defense Investor Network
2 Philip Clark Chief of Staff at 8VC
3 Anita Biddappa Operating Partner at BVA
18. Appendix - list of interviewees
4 Eileen Tanghal Managing Director at In-Q-Tel
5 John Hurley Partner at Cavalry AM, GSB lecturer, former US Army
Government
1 Sahar Hafeez Senior Advisor, Office of Under Secretary, Bureau of Industry and Security, Department of Commerce
2 Felipe Palacios Sureda Technology, Security, FDI Screening at EU Commission
Think tanks / Other
1 Matt Turpin Visiting fellow Hoover Institution
2 Glenn Tiffert Research fellow at Hoover Institution
19. Appendix - list of interviewees
3 Eric Sayers Nonresident Fellow at AEI
4 Will Hunt Researcher at CSET
5 Oriana Skylar Mastro Center Fellow at Stanford FSI
Editor's Notes
And so what we realized was that it’s not just about a chip shortage now. Its about a whole lot more. There’s different chips for different applications each with their own issues. And moreover there’s dozens of players in the game each with their own list of priorities. It’s a very messy picture.
And so our trajectory looked a bit like this. We began thinking, we have a chip shortage and are worried about kinetic disruptions, clearly manufacturing should be our focus. And so as the weeks went on we moved first from manufacturing to realizing maybe manufacturing isn’t the issue. Then R&D. But then realizing, hey maybe R&D isn’t the root, and eventually, hey, its education stupid. And so I’ll pass it over to Youngjun to talk this journey in a little more detail.
One of the key elements of arriving in the education direction was juxtaposing the risks and priorities we heard throughout our interviews that initially seemed to be in contrast with each other.
Students identified less accessible coursework and employment opportunities as compared to software as the key issue. Academia emphasised the difficulties of securing funding and the decreasing number of good researchers. Investors, are primarily worried about low RoI and a much higher risk than software. The industry desires more tax incentives and less strict immigration policies to secure adequate workforce. Finally, the government’s key concern is chip shortage due to manufacturing dependence, amid China’s continuing advances across the whole semiconductor value chain.
However, after discussions, we found that these competing narratives had shared elements. Although the risks are multifaceted, they are shared by many stakeholders and the challenges often overlap.
Fundamentally, when analyzing the identified priorities of each stakeholder, we found that education is the missing piece that may be best suited to address all the different stakeholders and their priorities.
Based on our interviews, we identified further evidence that education requires more attention. We heard the concerns of eroding US strengths from the industry, as well as that investors are not interested in hardware from students. At the same time, think tanks and academia suggested that we are at the verge of a new paradigm shift, which requires maintaining our advantage over competitors, and assumes continuous progress in research and education.
Dave and Abeer will explain how our recommended solution addresses these concerns.
So with this new focus on education and innovation, we began to discover a long list of novel and exciting ideas from our stakeholders that targeted students in the future semiconductor workforce.
To synthesize these ideas, we researched 13 years of Space Race era data from NASA and the Aerospace Research Center that quantified best-practice R&D apportionments among academia, industry, not-for-profits, and other capital sources.
The aggregate apportionment in these data is what you see represented here – all of these actors have a stake in education of the future workforce.
Indirectly, industry subsidies can incentivize hands-on learning in actual fabs in what we’ll explore later as the “fab-ternship” model – stimulating education through practical learning.
Neutral non-for-profit organizations can provide performance feedback and pioneer K-12 learning initiatives targeting American youth.
Academic and industry expert venture capital initiatives can stimulate deployable solutions across the many inputs of the semiconductor production cycle.
A significant takeaway from this historical case study analysis, however, was that direct investment in education is crucial: a quarter of any apportionment should go to the educational domain directly – in ways that my colleague Abeer will explore further.
Thanks, Dave.
As you can see, we’ve developed a four pronged approach to attack what we believe are the most under-invested in, and consequently most impactful vectors in this problem set:
K-12 education in electronics, something as simple as bringing in an iPhone into class to open it up and see what’s inside
Improving undergraduate access to industry is particularly important for a sector that’s seen as inaccessible without a PhD
Modernizing hardware curricula, which ironically some of the biggest advocates were Stanford EE professors themselves,
and private equity investment, particularly in hardware acceleration, which we’ve identified as a major growth area that is easily accessible to a new-entry player given intellectual property restrictions in the space.
Thanks INCENTIVIZE HARDWARE EDUCATION AND INNOVATION
Given the complexity in the stakeholder matrices, we’re quite happy with the responses we’ve received so far- they show us we’re hitting the right notes.
We do want to emphasize the importance of sharing information- which you all are part of now. Thank you for hearing us throughout our journey, and for bringing America’s chips back on the table.