Space Evaders Project Steer Clear
Increased use of space is leading to much higher probability of collisions and a rapidly expanding volume of debris. This propagation of collisions has the potential to become a Kessler cascade that would render Low Earth Orbit unusable in the future. Our team is using data methods to find ways to prevent debris-causing collisions. 52 Sponsor Amber Charlesworth Mentor Pablo Quintanilla Mentor Bart Burstein Kate Boudreau Dave Gabler Tyler Dammann Matthew Kaseman 10 in total this week Interviews
Interviewee Hypothesis Experiment Results State
Department sponsor A data-sharing platform with satellite pre and post launch data would be helpful. Showed sponsor the MVP with the information and asked how she would use it. - This would be extremely helpful to our sponsor’s day to day life State Department sponsor Gov. agencies are willing to help maintain such a database. Inquire about who should own this database. - Willing to contribute, want access to other stuff FAA Would want to share data with other agencies and have visibility into the progress of others MVP 2.0 - Gov report Most data didn’t care about. FCC license could help on-orbit enforcement leverage.
Interviewee Hypothesis Experiment Results Commercial
satellite operator 1 Satellite operators would be able to do their job more effectively given the contact information and governmental info of other operators New MVP - online platform including the contact and governmental info of other operators - Rarely needs this (couple times/year) - Useful, but can get elsewhere Commercial satellite operator 2 Satellite operators would be able to do their job more effectively given the contact information and governmental info of other operators New MVP - online platform including the contact and governmental info of other operators - Some attributes are very useful, including contact information - Some are less useful, such as the location data University one-off satellite operator They are less connected to key information and have less robust plans about CA response New MVP and ask for description of CA response plan - Disconnected from other operators, but don’t have much need either. - CA avoidance plan is to launch low/decay fast
Collision data process Prediction models
Data In Data Out Operator Decision Mediocre accuracy Limited predictive capability Compounding mediocre collision probability Fuel and political incentive to not move
Politics of maneuver choices after
collisionReceiveawarning? Maneuver? Why didn’t you do something? Y N N Y It’s a dangerous place & we got unlucky It’s a dangerous place & we got unlucky So you’re saying that WE caused this? You’re fired.
Bottom line Government agencies: -
Information gaps, nothing really “painful” - No clear relevance to collision avoidance Commercial Operators: - Give due diligence to collision avoidance - Won’t improve without actually reliable data/predictions Insurance: - Operating in pricing bubble - Collisions = extremely minor part of on-orbit losses - Expect changes after next big collision.
Major Players / Saboteurs Government
Data Sharing Platform Operator Data Sharing Platform Key Players Give Data: - JSpOC - FAA - FCC - NOAA RSO - NASA Launch Services Receive Data: - State Department - JSpOC - Commercial satellite operators - Government satellite operators Saboteurs - Unknown - Private SSA providers Problem: Major pain point found Only one person beneficiary Problem: Many potential beneficiaries No major pain point found (relatively effective workarounds).
ty; Mission Model Canvas Beneficiaries
Mission AchievementMission Budget/Costs Buy-In/Support Deployment Value PropositionKey Activities Key Resources Key Partners █JSpOC (DM) █Ken Hodgkins at OES/SAT █Current regulatory bodies (SE & KK at FAA/FCC/NOAA) █NASA ISS Mission Director - tracking inter-agency data transfers - Find ways to determine contact info for operators - Existing databases - Our neutrality in interagency politics ████ Improved sharing of data (both directions). ██ Low cost methods to prevent losses to very expensive, hard to replace items in space ██ Increase ability to predict collisions with accuracy ██ Better ability to predict orbital risk ██ Increased access to other operators, saving time and allowing processes to be automated █Commercial willing to supply data and follow best practices. █Government resources capable of improving general SSA and conjunction analysis █Access to academic data to improve SSA - Aggregate existing databases - Test improvements in workflow of beneficiaries - Efficiently distribute to relevant stakeholders ►AC: (quarterly quality control; receive/send UN data) ►MJ: (needs more sharing & access to advance science) ►DM: conjunction analyst (uncorrelated tracks) ►JC: Industrial satellite operators (having to sift through useless CAs while finding the legitimate ones) - Access to databases (subscriptions) - Potential travel costs - Cost of maintaining a web platform - Develop a more efficient method for distribution/information-sharing of collision-preventing information - Provide contact information and interagency cooperation amongst satellite operators and regulatory industries.
MVP (next week) Hypothesis: Improved
contact knowledge and communication ability among satellite operators would lead to an easier decision-making process and a lower probability to current and future collisions.
Value Proposition Canvas Products &
Services Customer Jobs John, satellite operator for a commercial space-based company. Gains Pains Gain Creators Pain Relievers ►Many Conjunction Alerts. ►Coordination with other operators █ Minimize risk, fuel cost, and time investment related to conjunction risks. █ Improved understanding of Conjunction Alerts. █ Reduce time to make contact with other operators. - Easy to access information about other operators ►Complete profitable satellite operations. - Accomplish mission - Avoid collisions Customer Archetype (Satellite Operator) ● 44-year-old space industry veteran with 15+ years in the industry ● Hired to monitor/adjust satellite position to ensure customer needs can be met. ● Very passionate about his job ● Enjoys problem-solving, dislikes wasted time ● Wants to be a good citizen of space Mission Achievement: ● Reduced time spent on conjunction analysis ● Reduced stress surrounding potential collisions
Value Proposition Canvas Products &
Services Customer Jobs DK, conjunction analyst at JSpOC Gains Pains Gain Creators Pain Relievers ►Single-source data ►Ad hoc ephemeris data usage█ Fewer uncorrelated tracks █ Improved responsiveness from operators █ Better data for conjunction analysis █ Internally check data sources - Standardized data sharing - Better information flow from operators - Easier communication ►Track and identify orbital objects ► Protect USMIL and other satellites - Predict conjunctions - Protect DoD assets - Find/sign-up more operators Customer Archetype (DoD Official) ● Middle aged with a military background ● Loyal to JSpOC and its mission ● Hopeful for the future of tracking capabilities ● Respectful of authority ● Looking to advance U.S. interests ● Mindful of classified data ● Looking to advance personal career ● Probably risk-averse Mission Achievement: ● Reduced pressure to provide contact information
- Useful information - Easily
accessible - Secure sources of data - Industry leader in ease of data sharing - Direct sales - Include link to chat room with JSpOC conjunction warnings - Useful information - Easily accessible - Develop content to meet needs - Rapid response to UI and platform change requests - Incremental product improvement to relieve customer pain points - Useful information - Easily accessible - Platform is industry norm - Expand into other need areas of our customers - Encourage communication about services among operators Buy-in: 1) Commercial 2) JSpOC
New areas of customer discovery
- Space-borne options to obtain better data - Object shape information possibilities - International user experience - Software to standardize ephemeris data from different sources