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Lecture 5- Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition

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Lecture 5- Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition

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Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition,TIGPC, Gordian knot Center, DIME-FIL, department of defense, dod, hacking for defense, intlpol 340, joe felter, ms&e296, raj shah, stanford, Steve blank, AI, ML, AI/ML, china, JAIC, DIU, Mike Brown,Nand Mulchandani, Jacqueline Tame

Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition,TIGPC, Gordian knot Center, DIME-FIL, department of defense, dod, hacking for defense, intlpol 340, joe felter, ms&e296, raj shah, stanford, Steve blank, AI, ML, AI/ML, china, JAIC, DIU, Mike Brown,Nand Mulchandani, Jacqueline Tame

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Lecture 5- Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition

  1. Technology, Innovation, and Great Power Competition INTLPOL 340; MS&E 296 Steve Blank, Joe Felter, Raj Shah Lecture #5: Artificial Intelligence 19 October 2021
  2. Agenda • Logistics • Identifying and Deploying Defense Technologies for Great Power Competition • Global AI Arms Race and GPC • Team Problem Statements
  3. Logistics • November 2 class rescheduled. Now Monday, November 1 at 5:30 - 8:30 PM (normal time) • Individual Assignments due by the start of Nov. 1 class • By next OH, teams should be focused on the problem they would like to solve
  4. Defense Innovation & Great Power Competition x
  5. Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) Director • CEO of Symantec (‘14-’16) • Chairman of EqualLogic • Chairman & CEO of Quantum (‘95-’03) • Board of Trustees of Berklee College of Music • Stanford MBA • Harvard BA Mike Brown
  6. AI & National Security x
  7. “We have no competing fighting chance against China in 15 to 20 years. Right now, it’s already a done deal; it is already over in my opinion,” he said, adding there was “good reason to be angry”. -Nicolas Chaillan, The Financial Times, 10 October 2021 “China is not poised to overtake the U.S. in the technology domain of AI; rather, the U.S. maintains structural advantages in the quality of S&T inputs and outputs, the fundamental layers of the AI value chain, and key subdomains of AI.” Jeffrey Ding, “China’s Current Capabilities, Policies, and Industrial Ecosystem in AI” Have we already lost the AI fight to China?
  8. • Citrix - VP • CEO/Co-Founder ScaleXtreme • Accel Partners • OpenDNS - CEO • VMware • Determina - CEO • Oblix - Co-Founder • Sun Microsystems • Harvard MPA • Stanford MSx • Cornell BS Ex JAIC, Landus, VP • Fmr JAIC - Deputy Director • DoD, Strategic Assessments & Integration • Title 60 Strategies • House Select Committee on Intelligence • DIA • SAIC • NWC MA • Texas A&M MPAff & BA CTO, Joint Artificial Intelligence Center Nand Mulchandani Jacqueline Tame
  9. AI and Great Power Competition
  10. “Artificial intelligence is the future, not only for Russia, but for all humankind. It comes with colossal opportunities, but also threats that are difficult to predict. Whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become the ruler of the world.” The Geopolitical Implications of AI “As new technologies continue to evolve, we’ll work together with our Democratic partners to ensure that new advances in areas from biotechnology to quantum computing, 5G, artificial intelligence and more are used to lift people up, to solve problems and advance human freedom, not to suppress dissent or target minority communities.” “[The PRC] must ensure that our country marches in the front ranks where it comes to theoretical research in this important area of AI, and occupies the high ground in critical and AI core technologies...critical and core AI technologies [must be] firmly grasped in our own hands.”
  11. How will AI affect: [D]iplomacy Deep fake technology Collaborative big data solutions
  12. How will AI affect: [I]ntelligence Computer Vision + Satellite Images Empowered hacking & cyber security
  13. How will AI affect: [M]ilitary Joint All Domain Command & Control (JADC2) AI/ML improved targeting
  14. How will AI affect: [E]conomics Smart / Predictive Manufacturing & Maintenance Improving logistical efficiency
  15. ● How would you characterize the strengths and weaknesses of the U.S.’s AI Strategy? ● How would you advise the Biden Administration to pursue an AI Strategy?
  16. Group Projects
  17. Group Project • Problem Statement Review and Feedback • 5 minutes per group • Blunt and direct feedback • “Socratic method with a stick” - Steve Blank • We give feedback this way because it will help you move faster; indirect feedback takes too long for the course
  18. The gap between U.S. and Chinese military innovation is rapidly closing and poses a threat to U.S. military dominance in the Indo-Pacific Region. In order to maintain our capability gap, the U.S. needs to reevaluate and improve its funding strategies and partnerships with mid-stage private companies that have potential for dual- use technologies, which can play a vital role in catalyzing U.S. military innovation. Team 1: Team AVCI
  19. Chinese investment in US start-ups poses a threat to US military capabilities across critical technologies. The greatest threats to DOD military advantage in AI/ML are from forced JVs or possible trade secret theft, either through direct investment or LP investment. However, it is unclear how widespread of a phenomenon these two threat scenarios are due to the open nature and lack of transparency in venture capital. Team 2: Team Conflicted Capital
  20. Hong Kong presents a unique opportunity to support activists currently attempting to maintain democratic institutions inside the PRC. The US can amplify its soft power by supporting these activists through facilitating free information access and secure communication channels outside the control of the CCP security apparatus. The US should also pursue opportunities to support pro- democracy activists through their execution of protests, unsanctioned expression, and other mobilization activities. The US should explore this through application of cyber policy, encouraging changes to tech companies’ international policies, and security / technical support to activists. Team 3: Project Aurora
  21. How should the United States best prepare for the upcoming paradigm shift in the semiconductor industry through reimagined education and more effective funding to protect the American leadership in the global supply chain of semiconductors? Team 4: Team ShortCircuit
  22. Team Drone analyzes the People’s Republic of China's (PRC) joint service (联合作战样式) operational concept for the future of drone swarm support to amphibious warfare (两栖登陆作战), Taiwan’s current Overall Defense Concept (ODC) at the intersection of Counter Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems (C-sUAS), and emerging US swarm defense tech in conjunction with the DoD's official "C-sUAS Strategy," in order to protect against asymmetric PRC's swarm technologies in a potential Taiwan Strait crisis. Team 5: Team Drones
  23. The US Space Force needs innovative mechanisms to incorporate emerging capabilities and concepts to successfully lead in space and defend American interests. In order to deter adversaries in space, the USSF must leverage commercial innovation and establish a trained, experienced acquisition workforce that can effectively balance commercial and government-only capabilities that will deliver acquisition and innovation impact that the Space Force requires. Further aligning commercial and military interests and operations in space will best protect American interests in space. Team 6: Apollo
  24. China’s mass state-sponsored hacking of American government agencies and corporations presents a serious security and economic risk to our nation. Particularly with their sizable investments and rapidly advancing development of quantum computing technology, China presents an important cybersecurity danger in the near future that must be addressed to prevent a catastrophic outcome in this great power competition. Team 7: Catena
  25. Questions? We are here to support!
  26. Reach out to teaching team with questions! Midterm Memo - Key Reminders • Due Monday, November 1 @ 23:59 PST • No more than 2,000 words • Prompt Guidance • Select one technology (i.e. semiconductors) • Describe how one U.S. competitor is using it to counter U.S. interests • Propose how the U.S. should respond • Follow today’s case methodology
  27. Next Week • Class 6 Topic: Autonomy • Updated readings will be on Canvas shortly • TA Team will post Week 6 Reading Reflection prompt once readings are updated • AMAZING guest speakers • Updated problem statements and interview trackers due Mondays @ 11:59 PM PST
  28. Technology, Innovation, and Great Power Competition INTLPOL 340; MS&E 296 Steve Blank, Joe Felter, Raj Shah Lecture #5: Artificial Intelligence 19 October 2021
  29. ● How would you characterize the strengths and weaknesses of China’s AI Strategy? ● Do you agree more with Kai-Fu Lee or Jeffrey Ding’s analysis? Why?

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