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Lecture 4- Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition

Stanford University
Stanford University
Stanford UniversityLecturer at Stanford University

Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition,TIGPC, Gordian knot Center, DIME-FIL, department of defense, dod, hacking for defense, intlpol 340, joe felter, ms&e296, raj shah, stanford, Steve blank, semiconductors, china, applied materials

Lecture 4- Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition

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Technology, Innovation, and Great
Power Competition
INTLPOL 340; MS&E 296
Steve Blank, Joe Felter, Raj Shah
Lecture #4: Semiconductors
12 October 2021
Agenda
• Logistics
• Part 1 (GPC) Recap
• Part 2 Preview (GPC Technologies and Domains)
• 4th Industrial Revolution
• Semiconductors
• Group Project
• Next Week
Logistics
• Group Project Office Hours
• Sign ups will be live after class today
• Reminder to please arrive with slides to show the following:
• Current problem statement [“what did you think”]
• 3 key takeaways from your research and interviews [“what did you learn”]
• Your next steps [“what will you do”]
• Slides are not being graded for style—we just care about content
• Great work with on the reflections!
Great Power Competition
The Fourth Industrial Revolution
History of Innovation: From Industry 1.0 to 4.0

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Lecture 4- Technology, Innovation and Great Power Competition

  • 1. Technology, Innovation, and Great Power Competition INTLPOL 340; MS&E 296 Steve Blank, Joe Felter, Raj Shah Lecture #4: Semiconductors 12 October 2021
  • 2. Agenda • Logistics • Part 1 (GPC) Recap • Part 2 Preview (GPC Technologies and Domains) • 4th Industrial Revolution • Semiconductors • Group Project • Next Week
  • 3. Logistics • Group Project Office Hours • Sign ups will be live after class today • Reminder to please arrive with slides to show the following: • Current problem statement [“what did you think”] • 3 key takeaways from your research and interviews [“what did you learn”] • Your next steps [“what will you do”] • Slides are not being graded for style—we just care about content • Great work with on the reflections!
  • 6. History of Innovation: From Industry 1.0 to 4.0
  • 7. The 4th Industrial Revolution
  • 8. The Secret History of Silicon Valley YouTube Link
  • 11. Implications for U.S. Defense • Innovation now comes from commercial sector - not the government • Reflected in R&D spending, but also more dual-use tech
  • 12. • Is the system compatible with Industry 4.0? The Defense Acquisition System
  • 14. ● Lecturer in Finance, GSB ● Former Managing Partner, Bowman Capital Management ● Expert on semiconductors and supply chains ● Former Member, President's Intelligence Advisory Board ● Former Captain, U.S. Army ● Member of Board of Trustees, AEI John Hurley Managing Partner and CIO, Cavalry Asset Management
  • 18. 1) Put yourself in Mark Liu's shoes: Do you view China as more of a competitor or customer - and why? 1) Now imagine you are the NSC Senior Director with responsibility for technology strategy. What's the first thing the US Gov't should do regarding Semiconductors?
  • 19. Problem Scoping • What problem do we want to solve? • PRC access to U.S. tech? • PRC embedding advanced tech into dual-use systems? • How do we select / narrow a problem? • Value added for identified stakeholders • Access to info / experts • Personal passion / interest
  • 20. Solution Development • What are potential solution ideas? • Export controls? • Stronger CFIUS regulations? • How do you select a solution? • Stakeholder feedback • Deployment strategy
  • 21. • Provide a 1-page memo to POTUS proposing solution Implementation - Midterm Memo Matt Pottinger NSC Memo
  • 22. Implementation - Midterm Memo • Make every word count Policy Memo Writing Guide Memo Structure
  • 23. Reach out to teaching team with questions! Midterm Memo - Key Details • Due Monday, November 1 @ 23:59 PST • No more than 2,000 words • Prompt Guidance • Select one technology (i.e. semiconductors) • Describe how one U.S. competitor is using it to counter U.S. interests • Propose how the U.S. should respond
  • 25. Group Project • Problem Statement Review and Feedback • 5 minutes per group • Blunt and direct feedback • “Socratic method with a stick” - Steve Blank • We give feedback this way because it will help you move faster. Indirect feedback takes too long for the course
  • 26. The gap between U.S. and Chinese military innovation is rapidly closing and poses a threat to U.S. military dominance in the Indo-Pacific Region. In order to maintain our capability gap, the U.S. needs to reevaluate and improve its public venture capital and funding strategies regarding private companies that have potential for dual-use technologies, which can play a vital role in catalyzing U.S. military innovation. Team 1: Team Army Venture Capital Initiative
  • 27. Team 2: Team Conflicted Capital Chinese investment in US start-ups poses a threat to US military capabilities across critical technologies. The open nature and lack of transparency in venture capital threaten the US government’s ability to track these threats. Additionally, companies may desire to function as national security capability providers but find themselves unable to partner with government agencies due to a compromised investment history.
  • 28. Team 3: Project Aurora How can the United States employ its cyber capabilities to provide the populace of Hong Kong with unrestricted Internet access? How can it use this access to bolster the resiliency of Hong Kong’s civil society in the face of CCP crackdowns, in order to pressure the PRC regime, spread American liberal values, and uphold United States freedom of action in the information domain?
  • 29. Team 4: Team ShortCircuit How should the United States improve its ability to design and produce semiconductors and develop and retain relevant talent within the U.S. territory and other directly securable regions to protect the viability of American industries and military in case of disruptions in the global supply chain of semiconductors?
  • 30. Team 5: Team Drones Group 5 analyzes the PRC’s joint service (联合作战样式) operational concept for the future of drone swarm support to amphibious warfare (两栖登陆作战), as well as current thinking in the US and Taiwan about the future of drone swarm defense in order to protect against asymmetric People’s Republic of China (PRC) swarm technologies in a potential Taiwan Strait crisis.
  • 31. Team 6: Apollo The US Space Force needs innovative mechanisms to incorporate emerging technologies to successfully lead in space and defend American interests. In order to deter adversaries in space, the USSF must leverage commercial innovation and establish a trained, experienced acquisition workforce that can effectively balance commercial and government-only capabilities that will deliver acquisition and innovation impact that the Space Force requires. Further aligning commercial and military interests and operations in space will best protect American interests in Space.
  • 32. Team 7: Catena China’s recent cryptocurrency ban has presented the United States with an unparalleled opportunity to leverage blockchain and digital asset technology toward countering foreign cyber attacks on public institutions and achieving a long-term strategic advantage. We plan to identify opportunities for our government to promote and capitalize on technological opportunities in this space through carefully constructed regulation.
  • 33. Questions? We are here to support!
  • 34. Next Week • Class 5 Topic: Artificial Intelligence / Machine Learning • Updated readings will be on Canvas shortly • TA Team will post Week 5 Reading Reflection prompt once readings are updated • Updated problem statements and interview trackers due Mondays @ 11:59 PM PST
  • 35. Technology, Innovation, and Great Power Competition INTLPOL 340; MS&E 296 Steve Blank, Joe Felter, Raj Shah Lecture #4: Semiconductors 12 October 2021