AggregateDB Nathan | Shutong |
Kaya | Chris 12 Interviews Sponsor: Conflict and Stabilization Operations POC: Santiago Stocker Mentor: Dan Spokojny Politics in volatile countries is influenced by ethnic and religious leaders. Determining their location and relative power is a labor intensive and inconsistent process. However, embassy staff - economic, political and public diplomacy regularly meet with leaders to gather this information.
CASE STUDY #1: Revolts Against
Oil Companies SITUATION Political unrest in the Delta Region occurred in 2009/2010. Because Nigeria has so many oil wells, there were many controversies over how oil revenues were being distributed nationally. ACTION Many communities in the Delta did not feel like they were being given their fair share, which led to outbreaks of violence on oil companies (Shell, Chevron). Over 2000 people died. RESULTS CSO was brought in for 2 years to gather information about how to prevent a similar crisis from happening again. The crisis is still ongoing, but efforts to resolve it include an amnesty and payoff program, where there are still ethnic groups in the Delta receiving stipends to maintain the peace. How was the information obtained? Organized / catalogued? Official or informal information? How was it used? What kind of information was it? How were informal leaders defined? What more information could’ve been useful? CSO “on the ground” went out and interviewed business leaders. CSO modelled stakeholder analysis of all different ethnic groups and their connection to the oil controversy. Both. Cables, briefed directly to embassy. Then, integrated to amnesty work conducted by embassy. Statistical reports on different groups and their stake in the oil revenue situation. Public figures who publicly agreed / disagreed with oil company situation. US stakeholders are proposing crushing revolts with military force; not enough info on which groups to target / not target.
CASE STUDY #2: Gathering Intel
on Hamas SITUATION Hamas, a terrorist organization, is expanding. But, Hamas is a highly decentralized organization. The leadership structed is based on consensus decision making, so it is extremely difficult to identify who the “leaders” are. In a decentralized organization like Hamas, everyone is a “spokesperson.” ACTION Peter Lohman, the Desk Officer for Algeria, was responsible for gathering intel on Hamas. Challenge: Officers cannot access the group (too dangerous) so create relationships with indirect contacts and read media reporting of Hamas (not always accurate). RESULTS 2014 Israel-Gaza conflict: Congress passed legislation proving Israel with an additional $225 million in military aid for missile defense. According to Israel: Hamas was weakened. According to Hamas: Israel was repelled from Gaza. How was the information obtained? Organized / catalogued? Official or informal informatio n? How was it used? What kind of information was it? How were informal leaders defined? What more information could’ve been useful? Interviews with indirect, personally cultivated contacts. (Friends- of-friends-of- friends) Contacts semi- catalogued. Compiled in a cable and sent back to Washington. Both. Washington decides whether or not to intervene in whatever Hamas was planning. Reports on meetings, future plans, potential terrorist attacks. Difficult to define - “everyone is a spokesperson.” Word-of-mouth. Person who has spoken to the media. Sometimes finding that one last contact is the exponential jump you need. Would “kill” for a program mapping relationships. Even if ⅕ contacts were helpful, it would be a great program.
CASE STUDY #3: SITUATION: Franklin
Square Group an influential lobbying firm stated that they would be interested in using such a product to discover the stakeholders in large companies and how decisions are made. It is fairly difficult to determine the decision chain in a company when a sensitive decision or contract is at stake. ACTION : Follow up in person meeting with Partners December 2nd. RESULTS How was the information obtained? Organized / catalogued? Official or informal informatio n? How was it used? What kind of information was it? How were informal leaders defined? What more information could’ve been useful? Phone interview with Franklin Square group. Information needs to be organized with some surefire root information but approximation or even lists of educated gueses are interesting Both When lobbying in washington on behalf of facebook or google lobby firms need to get the buyin of many stakeholders with similar interests regulation information internet law, data flow policy making. product team leads, VP level leads, engineer leads. org tree structure from a decision standbpoint. very difficult to gauge and determine.
Customer Discovery Hypothesis Experiments Results
What actionable missions can embassies and / or bureaus carry out using this information about informal leaders? Interviewed Peter Lohman, Desk Officer for Algeria. Interviewed Santiago, CSO and asked about 2 years CSO spent in Nigeria. 1. Achieve political amnesty by contacting “moderate” informal leaders. (Oil Companies) 2. Map out “friends-of-friends” between terrorist groups (Hamas) 3. Company leaders contacts to informal leaders Can we trace at what level decisions are made, regarding embassies, desks and DC, when political crisis occur? Interviewed Marlin Hardinger, political and economic officer in State since 2002. Served in Turkmen, Moldova, South Sudan, Abuja, and Buhari. We found that information flows pretty freely between embassies, desks, and bureaus. (See chart on prior slide) How do FSO’s currently trace networks of informal leaders? How do FSO’s rank the importance of a particular leader / contact? Steve McDonald. Works at the Wilson Center, doing work on Burundian leadership. Peter Lohman, Desk Officer for Algeria. No formal ranking system - contacts are kept in FSO’s personal “rolodex.” Personal relationships are everything in “ranking” a leader. At FSO’s own discretion.
Foreign National Employee (OMS)+ Section
Chief Relies on3-5 yr FSO 3 p. To manage relationships Union leaders Official leaders in gov. NGO’s Ethnic leader Daily contact/meetings 7+ yr FSO 5+ p. Delegates tasks portfolios(p) New FSO 1 p. Friend FSO S/ES request Un-help Func. Bureau Helpful Func. Bureau Inundates w/ daily request for more info Official meetings with highest ranking Deputy Chief Mission aka COO usually (Ambassador) GATEKEEPERS DOS TIME=$$ SC alerts DCM of mission critical requests/ changes No- “Tell your boss to tell my boss” Country X Desk in Washington Boeing political lobbyist Raw material supplier not cooperating Charge d'Affaires CEO of Embassy DCM communicates main issues charge-D to get regional bureau help Charge-D passes DCM down regional priorities 7th floor officials White House Regional Bureau Officials USAID in country Boeing in County X Support Employs, supports punishes, joins, exploits?
Edges: Red - Family Black
- Negative Blue - Neutral Nodes: Yellow - President Red - APC Blue - Lagos State Govern Green - Others Rotimi Akeredolu On Saturday September 3rd, 2016, Represent the All Progressive Congress (APC) at their primary conducted in Ondo State to represent the party at the forth-coming 2016 elections. Twitter: @RotimiAkeredolu Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/rotimia keti/ Rotimi Akeredolu & Simon Lalong Mr. Lalong formally presented Rotimi Akeredolu, the All Progressives Congress gubernatorial candidate in Ondo, to President Buhari. CLICK NODES CLICK EDGES
Beneficiaries Mission AchievementMission Budget/Costs Buy-In/Support
Deployment Value PropositionKey Activities Key Resources Key Partners CSO: Santiago - Writing report about Boko Haram Tyler - Analyzing relationship between known members of BH and unclassified actors Will Meeker - Travels to Nigeria for 2 years to generate contacts for CSO, get Santiago data Embassy Staff: Caroline: Economic/ Political Officer at small Embassy in stable country James/Steve: Economic/ Political Officer at large Embassy in an unstable country Nick: Public Diplomacy Officer at busy Embassy Executive Secretariat(S/ES) Nick from Secretariat Staff: The Secretary want’s to speak with Monica Geingos in Namibia 1 of 2 Operations Staff on Call: Spends all day summarizing , combining incoming cables CSO Sponsor: Santiago Stocker Foreign Nationals(OMS): Office Management Specialists to implement and upkeep central list for long term deployment Elian Carsenat founder of NamSor- onomastics(surname) analysis software Mentor: Daniel Spokojny, insights into CSO dynamics ParseHub TensorFlow Database companies(ACLED,GDELT) lobby companies and evengalist that make introductions SV companies who are working in a similar space / contract (partnerships) Beta starts in Nigeria, with Vanguard newspaper(English) Focus on formal leaders through public sources Need CSO to continue connecting us upstream w/ former clients and downstream with data sources in field Continued support from AF staff to differentiate known unknowns from unknown unknowns Source Aggregation: Gives organizations the ability to identify most important actors in rapidly evolving situations using data mined from a breadth of sources. Relatable data visualization:ensure people from all backgrounds can analyze and filter relevant data depending on their needs Information Extraction: perform natural language processing on news articles, twitter and etc to extract categories and information for informal leaders. Improve CSO’s ability to write relevant reports by giving them tools for passive “granular” data collection w/o Embassy involvement Provide long-term contact management, automation of embassy “check-in” Ability to rapidly provide “S” contact information of any person FSO/Embassies have had official contact with Information Analysis Key entities identification Software Engineering Data collection and storage Data mining Network visualization CSO pre-formatted and edited JSON databases Previously published unclassified reports commissioned by DOS Web Crawler API’s TensorFlow Machine learning API Nigerian news papers gurdian, sahara Times, Punch, Business day, Vanguard FIXED: Frontend / backend deployment of app VARIABLE: Parsehub API Google Compute Engine
Analyze foreign conflicts & Advise
relevant parties upstream(7th floor) and downstream to embassy 100% accurate information, but realistically happy with 50%, b/c have time to corroborate with classified sources Data on ethnic/religious leaders Data that is current & structured Current sources too shallow Best data unstructured, in cables, year old Santiago Stocker CSO Advanced Analytics Unit(8) Output data formatted, downloadable and available for further analysis and combination with classified intel Data-mining provides daily updates, validity based on page ranking Targeted source scraping means information gets more accurate as # of users and providers increases Mining searches for personal names Program can be run continuously, updates daily based on input from internal embassy and external news Passive connection btwn. CSO in D.C. and FSO Nigeria to share information and contacts gathered from data mining Embassies too busy to help w/ CSO side-projects Program can run with passive interaction w/ Embassy - BS/BA + MA in International Policy - Thesis work used LOTS of data - Wants to make CSO relevant - Believes in power of data to solve international problems - Needs worldwide knowledge base b/c impossible to know next r equest - Skeptical of data provided by embassies’ political offices Connection that doesn’t require constant requests/ coordination with DCM
Understand & analyze domestic, labor
market in Nigeria, meet with cooperative leaders and report progress, strikes developments in weekly cables/ SPOT reports 100% accurate information, but realistically would be happy with 20% lead success, works @ 10% right now Phone number of reliable informant in distant village Long term tracking of contacts, especially as known leads progress upwards hierarchy Predecessor left nice handover, but too old after move, industry changes quick Town with protest three days drive away, through desert Marlin- 8 year FSO, currently Economic Officer in Lagos- Labor Portfolio(5) Hierarchy based on # mentions, info reliable contacts inside companies Visualization of relationships btwn. companies, individuals, unions Targeted source scraping means knowing which Labor Unions marched together, signals coop., bring together @Embassy soon? Nodes can be sorted by region, help FSO get closer to right contact Program runs beyond rotations, eliminates need for 40 page paper handover reports, 4 months old Provide economic FSO new contact, % “helpful” ranking, based on input of known contacts, better diplomacy Protocol Foreign National has excel spreadsheet w/ 4000+ unorganized names Nodes bigger or smaller depending on cross-reference embassy visits, mentions in cables/newspapers - MA+, intense study foreign policy - Rigorous entrance testing, but now jobs based on past-work - Speaks 4+ languages - Believes in prioritizing interaction w/ “traditional” contacts - Asked by DCM to join Nigeria team based on post-election work in Afghanistan - Receives many “urgent” requests for data/info daily, knows which ones to answer/ignore/forward to DCM Actionable suggestions of contacts means Marlin missing link
Learn actualities of diplomacy @
first embassy by working election portfolio 100% accurate information, but would accept 10%, Understanding of hierarchy @ Embassy, who Section Chief thinks is most important/why Ability to see most recent interaction w/ certain contact FSO tests did not mention 3AM DCM phone calls Doesn’t know which requests can be ignored, has CSO asking questions about knowledge after 3 months Bryce K..- 1 Year Political FSO reflecting on first year @ Embassy w/ Election Portfolio Better able to tell if contact is BS’ing about connections, mining shows if there documented ways X knows Y Huge gain: Able to look at information in organized fashion w/o feeling embarrassed to ask for help Hierarchy based on # mentions means initial category beyond word of mouth about priority of contact Before each meeting new FSO can look at map, mined data to make conversation/trip relevant, productive Network mapping to help new FSO understand who embassy knows and how they fit into greater framework in country Weekly excursions helpful, but only if k value=5 Access to last FSOs network greatly helps because starting k higher - BS in International Policy, 27 y.o. generation of FSO uses iPhone - Thesis work used LOTS of data - Speaks 2 languages, but feels at home @ combinator in country - Section chief gives lots travel $$, but learning statecraft like hose - Solves a problem only to show SC and have them say “I already knew this, and here’s 40 more pages @” - Interested in proving himself, finding niche in a massive/ competitive organization that now will only look @ previous work, not test scores Embassy work done @ school-yard, doesn’t have kid Reduced requests from “J” bureaus means less time spent on busy work “delegated” by SC and DCM
Awareness Interest consideration Purchase Keep
unbundling up-sell cross-sell referral Activity & people -Franklin Square -Facebook -Matt T. -Kara (FB) -Tom (google) -CSO -embassy FSO -DoD ? -evangelists -promoters Metrics follow up calls or pinging us without us pinging them -willing to give time -asks for pricing/quote -requests deployment meeting -payment in account -are they actively involved weekly basis? ?? -hardware bundle -API bundle - multilocation ?? -makes a direct intro GET KEEP GROW