Customer Development in High Tech

Advanced Entrepreneurship:
Customer Development in High Tech

Introduction to the Course

Steve Blank
sblank@kandsranch.com
www.steveblank.com

You Are Here

Plan Liquidity

Company Timeline
Idea 1st Round

Customer Development in the High-Tech Enterprise Fall 2009

How do You Get Here

Plan Liquidity

Company Timeline
Idea 1st Round


Entrepreneurship

Logical
Process


Entrepreneurship

Logical
Process
Intuitive
Passion


Today

Part 1: Introduction to the Course

Part 2: Key Concepts

Course Introduction
! Course Objectives
! Intro and Backgrounds
! How the Class Works
! Customer Development


Course Objectives

! Learn how to:
" Reduce product/market risk
" Organize sales, marketing and business
development when bringing a product to market
" Understand its relationship with engineering
! Have Fun
! Learn from Each Other


Course Prerequisites

! Officially – none
! Realistically:
" Experience in bringing a new product to market
" Entrepreneurship 295 or equivalent
" Have written a business plan


Introduction and Backgrounds
! Steve Blank
! Guest Speakers
! Class


Introduction: Steve Blank
8 startups in 25 years

2 strikeouts Rocket Science, Ardent
2 walks ESL, Zilog
2 singles Convergent, MIPS
1 double SuperMac
1 home run E.piphany

Non profits: Audubon, POST, Coastal Commission
Blog: www.steveblank.com
Twitter: sgblank


Introduction: Class
Why are you taking the class?

! How many of you have:
" Been in start-ups?
" Been in a startup that failed?
" Raised or tried to raise money?

! How many are:
" Sales, marketing or business development?
" Engineers?


How the Class Works
! Syllabus
! 3 Application Exercises
" Individual projects

" Max 2-pages

" Use different company than the research project

" Syllabus has assignment dates, due the week after

" Electronic copy gets graded

! Research Project
" Teams of 4 to 6

" Using customer development model analyze company
success/failure, propose alternatives
" Electronic copy gets graded

! Grading
" Research Project (50%)

" Application Exercises (25%)

" Class Participation (25%)


Class Issues
! “Tech-heavy”
! “Enterprise-heavy”
! For-profit versus non-profit
! Startups versus existing companies
! Methodology focused on product/customer
risk reduction
" Doesn’t work for technology risks (i.e Biotech)
! Doesn’t match your experience or opinion


Customer Development
in the High Tech Enterprise

Logistics

Steve Blank

How the Class Works
Part 1
Class Case Application Research
Exercise Project
Sept 4th Key Concepts: Mkt In & Out
Class 1 & 2 Risk/Tech Risk, Vertical
Mkts, Types of Startups


How the Class Works
Part 1
Exercise Project
Sept 5th Customer Development IMVU Think!
Class 3 & 4 & Discovery - Part 1 WebVan


How the Class Works
Part 1
Exercise Project
Sept 24th Discovery - Parts 2 & 3 E-Ink Market Type Team
Class 5 & 6 Selection
Draft Concept


How the Class Works
Part 1
Exercise Project
Draft Concept
Sept 26th Validation– Parts 1 & 2 Wildfire Approved
Class 7 & 8 Kittyhawk Concept


How the Class Works
Part 1
Exercise Project
Class 1 & 2 Risk/Tech Risk, Vertical Burger
Class 3 & 4 & Discovery - Part 1 Webvan
Draft Concept
Sept 26th Validation– Parts 1 & 2 Wildfire Approved
Class 7 & 8 Kittyhawk Concept
Oct 16th Validation– Part 3 Motive Customer
Class 9 & 10 Discovery


How the Class Works
Part 2

Exercise Project
Oct 17th ! Creation – Part 2 Priceline Team Meeting
Class 11 & 12 ! Creation Cases


How the Class Works
Part 2

Exercise Project

Nov 13th ! Company Building Peppers & Customer Team Draft
Class 14 Part 1 Rogers Validation


How the Class Works
Part 2

Exercise Project

Nov 14th ! Company Building
Class 15 Part 2


How the Class Works
Part 2

Exercise Project

Class 15 Part 2
Dec 3rd Summary Customer
Creation


How the Class Works
Part 2

Exercise Project

Class 15 Part 2
Dec 3rd Summary Customer
Creation
Dec 6th Research Pescadero Research
Conference Paper Due


Reading

Class Text: Four Steps to the Epiphany
Assigned Reading: In Reader
Blogs: www.steveblank.com
http://startuplessonslearned.blogspot.com/
Presentations: www.slideshare.net/
Google Group: http://groups.google.com/group/lean-startup-circle
Twitter: sgblank
ericries

watch http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2lE3fgj7QA for what you could be in store for


Angel/Study.net
http://bcangel.gsb.columbia.edu

! All materials are on Angel/Study.net
" Syllabus
" Reading
" Assignments
" Presentations (after each class)



The Course

Steve Blank

! Business Plans
! The Value of “Models” for an Entrepreneur
! Key Concepts
" Market versus Technology Risks
" Vertical Markets
" Three Types of Startups


The Top Lies of Venture Capitalists

1. “I liked your company, but my partners didn't.”
2. “If you get a lead, we will follow.”
3. “Show us some traction, and we'll invest.”
4. “We love to co-invest with other venture capitalists.”
5. “We're investing in your team.”
6. “I have lots of bandwidth to dedicate to your company.”
7. “This is a vanilla term sheet.”
8. “We can open up doors for you at our client
companies.”
9. “We like early-stage investing.”
Source: Guy Kawasaki


The Top Lies of Entrepreneurs

1. “Our projections are conservative.”
2. “(Big name research firm) says our market will be $50 billion in 2010.”
3. “(Big name company) is going to sign our purchase order next week.”
4. “Key employees are set to join us as soon as we get funded.”
5. “No one is doing what we're doing.”.
6. “No one can do what we're doing.”
7. “Hurry because several other venture capital firms are interested.”
8. “Oracle is too big/dumb/slow to be a threat.”
9. “We have a proven management team.”
10. “Patents make our product defensible.”
11. “All we have to do is get 1% of the market.”

Customer Development in the High-Tech Enterprise Fall 2009 Source: Guy Kawasaki

One Way to Plan a Startup


Business Plans – Why?

! Why write a plan?
" VC’s require it
" Planning (Strategic/Financial/Ops)
" Articulate Bus Model/Assumptions
! What’s wrong with a plan?
" Static
" Execution Oriented


The Value of “Models”
! Model = shorthand for complicated idea

" Check to see if the results are static or dynamic

! For example, …


Timmons Model of Entrepreneurship
(The Business Plan)

Communication

Resources Opportunity
Business
Plan

Creativity Leadership
Team


Moore Model of Entrepreneurship
(Chasm + Life Cycle)


New Product Introductions
What’s the Model?

! New Product introduction models
" Checklist of what to and when to do it
" Market size and business case
" Models try to ensure that product matches market
" Technology and development “gates”


StageGate™ Model
(New Product Introduction)


Steve Blank Model of
Entrepreneurship)


Venture Capital Model of a Startup
(Execution)

Concept/ Product Alpha Test/ Launch/
Bus. Plan Development Beta Test 1st Ship


New Product Introduction
It Doesn’t Always Work

! New Product Development Process
" Works great for some new products, fails

miserably for others
" Products usually are late, over cost

" Typically fails to understand and satisfy

customer needs
! Why?


Issues in New Product Intros

! Current models:
" Confuse product development process with
customer needs
" Treat all startups as the same
! We need a New Product Intro Process
" Reduces Market RiskSimple, understood by all
" Founders commitment
" Cross function organization
" Solid homework


Product Development - Microsoft
Unit of progress: Advance to Next Stage

Waterfall

Problem: known Solution: known


Product Development - Startup
Assumes Customers and Markets are Understood

Agile (XP)!

“Product Owner” or
in-house customer

Problem: known Solution: unknown


Product Development - Lean Startup
Assumes Customers and Markets are Unknown

Customer Development Engineering

Customer Customer Customer Scale
Discovery Validation Creation Company

Data, feedback, insights

Problem: unknown Solution: unknown

Hypotheses, experiments, insights


The Lean Startup Model
Agile Product Development

! Continuous cycle of
Product Development
" Product release cycle in
hours not years
" Tightly coupled with
customer development
" Minimum feature sets,
Agile maximum customer
Product
Development coverage



! Continuous cycle of
Customer
customer interaction
Development " Rapid hypothesis
testing about market,
pricing, customers, …
" Extreme low cost, low
burn, tight focus
" Measurable gates for
investors


Lean Startup Principles
Extraordinary Value at Low cost in Little Time

! Leverages:
Customer
Development " Commodity Technology
" Agile management
" Customer Development
! Designed to test hypothesis
and answer the unknowns
Agile
Product
Development


Customer Development Parallels Agile Development

Agile Development

Concept / Agile Continuous Continuous
Business Plan Development Test Ship


Customer Customer Customer Company
Discovery Validation Creation Building


Turns Market Risk/Product Fit Hypothesis into Facts

Customer Customer Customer Company
Discovery Validation Creation Building

! Discovery: Test hypotheses i.e. problem and product
! Validation: Build a repeatable and scalable sales process
! Creation: Create end-user demand and fill the sales pipeline
! Building: Scale via relentless execution


Lean Startup Advantages
Customer
Development

! Builds low-burn companies by design
" Low cost market risk testing
Agile
! Organized around learning and Product
Development
discovery
! Right model for current conditions

The next wave of capital efﬁcient startups


The Value of “Models”

! Model = shorthand for complicated idea

! This class teaches a “model” for product
introduction

! How to reduce risk for customer/market fit

! Side effect is rethinking timing in Sales,
Marketing & Business Development


Product Development

Concept/ Product Alpha/Beta Launch/
Bus. Plan Dev. Test 1st Ship




This is what our class is about




Key Concepts

Steve Blank
www.steveblank.com

Class 2: Agenda

! Vertical Markets
! Market Risk vs. Invention Risk
! Case: In N Out
! Three Types of Startups
" Definitions
" Market Type effects


New Product Conundrum

! New Product Introduction methodologies
sometimes work, yet sometimes fail
" Why?
" Is it the people that are different?
" Is it the product that are different?
! Perhaps there are different “types” of startups?


Startup Checklist – 1
What Vertical Market am I In?

! Web 2.0 ! Semiconductors
! Enterprise Software ! Electronic Design
! Enterprise Hardware Automation
! Communication Hdw ! Cleantech
! Communication Sftw ! Med Dev / Health Care
! Consumer Electronics ! Life Science / Biotech
! Game Software ! Personalized Medicine


A Plethora of Opportunities


Market Risk vs. Invention Risk


Startup Checklist - 2

! Market Risk?
! Technical Risk?
! Both?


Startup Checklist - 3

! Opportunity Where does the idea come from?
! Innovation Where is the innovation?
! Customer Who is the User/Payer?
! Competition Who is the competitor/complementor?
! Sales What is the Channel to reach the customer?
! Marketing: How do you create end user demand?
! What does Biz Dev do? Deals? Partnerships? Sales?
! Business/Revenue Model(s) How do we organize to make money?
! IP/PatentsRegulatory Issues? How and how long?
! Time to Market How long does it take to get to market?
! Product Development Model How to you engineer it?
! Manufacturing What does it take to build it?
! Seed Financing How much? When?
! Follow-on Financing How much? When?
! Liquidity How much? When?


Execution: Lots to Worry About


Execution: Very Different by Vertical


Market Risk Reduction Strategy


In-N-Out Secret Menu
! X by Y ! Grilled Cheese
" X meat patties and Y slices of cheese " Two slices of melted cheese, tomato,
(for example, a 3 by 3 or a 2 by 4) lettuce and spread on a bun, with no meat.
! Double Meat ! Extra Everything
" Two meat patties without cheese. " Adds extra spread, tomato, lettuce, and
! Triple Meat onions (regular or grilled).
" Three meat patties without cheese. ! Fries "Light"
! Animal Style " Almost raw fries that are cooked for less
time.
" A mustard cooked beef patty served on a
bun with pickles, lettuce, tomatoes, extra ! Fries "Well" (aka "Wellies")
spread and grilled onions. Any burger " Fries that are cooked longer to be extra
(including veggie and grilled cheeses) may crisp.
be made this way. ! Cheese Fries
! Flying Dutchman " Fries with two slices of melted cheese
" Two meat patties, two slices of melted placed on top.
cheese and nothing else. ! Animal Style Fries
! Protein Style " Fries with cheese, spread, and grilled
" Instead of a bun, the burger is wrapped in onions.
lettuce. Any burger (including veggie and ! Neapolitan Shake
grilled cheeses) may be made this way.
" All three shake flavors (strawberry, vanilla
! Veggie Burger (Wish Burger) and chocolate) combined in one shake.
" A burger without the meat and cheese.


In-N-Out Meat Factory


So Why Are We Talking About This?

Existing Market Resegmented New Market
Market


Three Types of Markets

Market


Three Types of Markets

Market

! Who Cares?
! Type of Market changes EVERYTHING
! Sales, marketing and business development
differ radically by market type


Definitions: Three Types of Markets
Market

! Existing Market
" Faster/Better = High end
! Resegmented Market
" Niche = marketing/branding driven
" Cheaper = low end
! New Market
" Cheaper/good enough can create a new class of
product/customer
" Innovative/never existed before


Existing Market Definition

! Are there current customers who would:
" Need the most performance possible?
! Is there a scalable business model at this point?
! Is there a defensible business model
" Are there sufficient barriers to competition from
incumbents?


Existing Market

Performance Our Company

Existing
Companies


Oops, forgot about Time

Performance Our Company

Existing
wt h
c e G ro
Companies
Today rfo rm an
Co mp any Pe
g
E x is t in

Time

Existing Market Risks

! “Better/Faster” is an engineering driven axiom
! Incumbents defend high-end, high-margin
businesses
! Factor in:
" Network effect of incumbent
" Sustaining innovation of incumbent
" Industry (or you own) “standards”
! “They’ll never catch up” is not a business strategy
! Established companies almost always win


Resegmented Market Definition (1)
Low End

! Are there customers at the low end of the market
who would:
" buy less (but good enough) performance
" if they could get it at a lower price?
! Is there a business profitable at this low-end?
! Are there sufficient barriers to competition from
incumbents?


Low-end Resegmentation
“Good Enough” Performance

Performance

Existing
wt h
Companies
rm an c e G ro
rfo
any Pe
Today
g Co mp
E x is t in

Our Company
At the Low-end

Time

Resegmented Market Definition (2)
Niche

! Are there customers in the current market who
would:
" buy if it addressed their specific needs
" if it was the same price?
" If it cost more?
! Is there a defensible business model at this point?
! Are there barriers to competition from incumbents?


Niche Resegmentation
“Branding” has its place

Existing Customers
Performance New Niches

a ny
N ew C om p
a
N ic h e fo r
a ny
N ew C om p
a
N ic h e fo r
n y
n gC om pa
E x is t i

Time

Resegmented Market Risks

! “Cheaper” is a sales-driven axiom
! Incumbents abandon low-end, low-margin
businesses
" For sometimes the right reasons
! Low-end must be coupled with a profitable
business model
" Up migration


New Market Definition

! Is there a large customer base who couldn’t do
this before?
" Because of cost, availability, skill…?
! Did they have to go to an inconvenient, centralized
location?
! Are there barriers to competition from
incumbents?


New Market
Customers That Don’t Yet Exist
Existing Customers
New Niches
Performance

New Customers
New Markets
a ny
ng Com p
E x is t i
t
M arke
N ew

Time


New Market Risks

! “New” is a marketing-driven axiom
! New has to be unique enough that:
" There is a large customer base who couldn’t do
this before
" They want/need/can be convinced
" Adoption occurs in your lifetime
! Company manages adoption burn rate
" Investors are patient and have deep pockets


Hybrid Markets

! Some products fall into Hybrid Markets
! Combine characteristics of both a new market
and low-end resegmentation
" SouthWest Airlines
" Dell Computers
" Cell Phones
" Apple iPhone?


Extra

What’s a Startup
Business Model?

Business Model

1. A diagram that shows all the flows between your
company and its customers


Clean Tech Markets
Air, Water Energy Green Renewables Smart Transport
& Waste Efficiency Building Power


Clean Tech Markets - Risk

! Which markets have technology risk?
! Which markets have customer risk?
! Which have both?


Clean Tech Markets - Risk
Definitions

! Technology Risk
" risk is in development of the product (i.e. fuel cells, thin-film
arrays, etc.) then customers automatically adopt
! Customer risk
" risk is in customer and market adoption

! Which have both?
! You spend your time differently depending on risk


Business Plan Hypothesis

Next…

Clean Tech Markets - Hypotheses
Size of Opportunity
Customer
Competition
Sales ! Your business plan is a set of untested
Marketing hypothesis
Biz Dev
Customer Dev
! What are they?
Bus/Rev Model ! How do you test them?
IP/Patents
Regulatory
! How do you execute them?
Time to Market
Prod Dev Model
Manufacturing
Team
Seed Financing
Follow-on
Liquidity Customer Development in the High-Tech Enterprise Fall 2009

Clean Tech Markets -
Hypotheses
Size of Opportunity
Customer
! Size of Opportunity
Competition
" TAM, SAM
Sales
! Customer
Marketing
" Who’s the end user? Economic buyer?
Biz Dev Reimburser?
Customer Dev ! Sales
Bus/Rev Model " What’s the distribution channel?

IP/Patents ! Marketing
" How do you create end-user demand
Regulatory
Time to Market
" How do you test your hypothesis
Prod Dev Model
! Business Model
Manufacturing
" How do all the parts work to create profits?
Team ! Financing
Seed Financing " What is the path to cash flow positive
Follow-on

Your Hypothesis Go Here

Finally…

Clean Tech Markets
Waste Efficiency Building Power
Size of Opportunity
Customer
Competition
Sales
Marketing
Biz Dev
Customer Dev
Bus/Rev Model
IP/Patents
Regulatory
Time to Market
Prod Dev Model
Manufacturing
Team
Seed Financing
Follow-on

Clean Tech Markets
Waste Efficiency Building Power
Size of Opportunity
Customer
Competition
Sales
Marketing
Biz Dev

Customer This Is Important
Development
Bus/Rev Model
IP/Patents
Regulatory
Time to Market
Prod Dev Model
Manufacturing
Team
Seed Financing
Follow-on
Liquidity

Business Plan - Sum of Hypotheses

! Business plan collects your hypothesis
! Adds facts as you know them today
! Contains a plan of how to turn hypothesis into
facts
! Extrapolates results if hypothesis turn into facts
! Has a business model which is clearly articulated


Start with the Pieces

Business Model…

Business Model

! Goal is to get to a single diagram of your
business
! Start by drawing pieces of your business
" Problem/Opportunity
" Market Size
" Distribution Channel
" Demand Creation
" Financial assumptions
! Then put it all together


Why Are You in Business?

Problem/Opportunity

Pain Points in Inter-District
Development of Curricula

Can Save a Ton of Dollars

Recognize Your Market
Type

Market Type?

! Existing Market
! Resegment a Niche
! Resegment on Low Cost
! New Market


Definitions: Types of Markets
Market

! Existing Market
" Faster/Better = High end
! Resegmented Market
" Niche = marketing/branding driven
" Cheaper = low end
! New Market
" Cheaper/good enough can create a new class of
product/customer
" Innovative/never existed before


Type of Market Changes Everything

Market

! Market
" Market Size ! Sales • Customers
" Cost of Entry " Sales Model - Needs

" Launch Type " Margins - Adoption

" Competitive " Sales Cycle
Barriers " Chasm Width
" Positioning • Finance
- Ongoing Capital
- Time to Profitability


So if You Succeed Do I Care?

How Big is It?

Total Available Market, Served
Available Market, Target Market

TAM = how big is the universe Total
Available
Market Served
Available
Market
Target
SAM = how many can I reach Market
with my sales channel

Target Market (for a startup) =
who will be the most likely buyers

Customer Development in the High-Tech Enterprise Fall 2009 10
9

sizing up the market

$123 billion tourism
industry inside the U.S.

$1 billion English travel
guides sold annually

$210 million 20-35 year
old travelers
SF (Initial test market)

OLED’s - Billion Dollar
Opportunity
-./0&1+234&5*+67'43&4)4583*+(56&'93:48 Our target market is the Flat
!"#$%&'())(*+,

;./0&;(<4&*=&->&'93:48
Panel display market.
!"A%%&'())(*+B,

Target products: Camcorders, DVD
-93?48&/:80&"@AA players and recorder, digital cameras,
'())(*+B computer monitors, LCD and Plasma TV
Apex: ! 3.5M

OLED TV market will grow to $15.29
billion by 2015

YEAR 1 PROJECTIONS
Units sold : 1,000,000
Price per unit : $700 - $1,000

Revenue from Royalties (assuming .5-1.0% of shelf price):
Worst case = $3,500,000 Best Case = $10,000,000

Distribution Channel
How Does Your Product Get to Your Customer?

Sales Ecosystem
Discussion channel
Mandate channel
Sale
Superintendant
Another
District district
IT Director

Engagement
(Early Stages) School
Dept. Head Another
school
in the
district
Teacher Teacher

Distribution Channel
Licensed Partners:
• Sony Consumer electronics
• Samsung • Flat Screen TVs through
(Other possibilities - LG, Toshiba, Panasonic,
DuPont)
Fry’s, Best Buy, Magnolia,
etc

IP
.
C Patents !"#$%"&'$()#* +),'()-$./# 01'")2
1
D

2 patents owned by Apex! Partners’ distribution channels
• Technology patent - SOLED • Sony
• Long-Brite and inkjet printing process • Samsung
(Other possibilities - LG, Toshiba, Panasonic,
DuPont)

Dollar flows:
Wages: founders &
Consultants
IP Costs: Lawyer .
C License fees C.E-F1E;
& Patent costs.
1 Royalties
Premises: Dev’t labs. D

Demand Creation
How Do You Drive Demand Into Your Channel?

Demand Creation

! State-by-state rollout: educational standards
! Continuous iteration of feedback

CA Pilot Broad Grow
Adoption Adoption
! Hypotheses: Will ! Hypotheses: Will ! Hypothesis: How
they adopt, use, they buy hands- well does it sell
and pay? off? Can it scale? itself?

! 10 schools f2f: ! CA telemarket ! All telemarket

! Sales: $1,066 ! F2f elsewhere ! $533/dist

! Travel: $1,000

distribution and demand creation
! Unique Idea: website and iPhone app form
symbiotic relationship

Travel
AdWords App
traffic
Listing

TravelSpy.com iPhone App

traffic Blogs (ex.
Magazines
Travelblog.org)

Financial Assumptions
What are the Ten Numbers that Matter?

Financial Assumptions

! Ten Numbers that matter depends on your business
" Average selling price

" Life time value

" Material cost

" Distribution channel cost

" Customer Acquisition cost

" Time to market

" Time to cash flow positive

" Etc.

! Do this before 45 pages of financials


Business Model
How Do The Pieces Work Together?

Bird’s Eye View of our Business
Hardware
Model
($155)
Online Distribution
• Own website ($208+.3x)
Customer • Amazon.com ($40+32x)
• eBay ($300+25x)
Acquisition
Target Market
Cost:
($41)
Demand Creation Viral
MyNote • SEO/SEM
($156.00) Marketing
• Blogs
• Forums
• Bookstore
promotion
• Sales force
• Viral marketing Offline Distribution
• Website $399.99
• College bookstores
($0.02)

Software (in-house)
($1.00)

BUSINESS MODEL
iPhone Application Subscription Based Service

$ 2.99 (x.7) $ 5/month
Year 1: $ 40K END-USERS END-USERS Year 1: $ 50K
Year 2: $1M Year 2: $1.2 M

E
IC
SE

E
RV

NU
RV
RE

SE

VE
IC
VE

E

RE
Third
NU

Nightlife
E

party
venues
affiliates

CITYBEATS.COM
Two Revenue Streams
March | 2011
Total Revenue (year 1) = $ 90 K
Critical Mass: 500,000 users
Total Revenue (year 2) = $ 2.2 M

''';!'"*0%$+%'G1)'H*(#&
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Customer Development in High Tech

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