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Office for Lease
  Ha Noi, Vietnam                                                                                                                                   Q3/2009
Supply trends
                                                                                               Grade C in Q3 2009 posted 78% in the occupancy rate with
Three new office buildings namely Plaschem (Long Bien                                          US$17 per square metre per month in the average rent.
Dist.), CEO Tower (Tu Liem Dist.) and Handi Resco Tower
(Ba Dinh Dist.) coming online in Q3 2009 increased the total                                   Demand trends
supply of Grade A, B & C offices to 493,000 sq m, consisting
of 12 Grade A; 30 Grade B and 32 Grade C buildings.                                            Demand of both Grade A and Grade B, as measured by net
Thirty-two Grade C office buildings included since Q3 2009                                     absorption, bounced back in Q3 2009 due to positive signals
added nearly 120,000 sq m of office space to the total current                                 of the global economic recovery. However, it is observed that
supply (*)                                                                                     new businesses are still cautious and less willing to take risks
Figure 1: Current supply of office space by grade, Q3 2009                                     when making a decision to enter new lease contracts. With
                                                                                               overall leasing enquiries remaining at low levels, landlords
                                                                       Grade A,                concentrate on maintaining their current tenants within their
                  Grade C,                                             105,275 ,
                  119,305,                                               21%                   buildings by negotiating lease extensions well before expiry
                    24%                                                                        of the existing contracts, and by offering competitive rents
                                                                                               with attractive packages of incentives. Besides, Grade C
                                                                                               office buildings are becoming another alternative for tenants,
                                                                                               especially in the present economic context.
                 Grade B,
                                                                                               .
                 267,995 ,
                   55%
                                                                                               Outlook

Source: Savills Research and Consultancy, Q3 2009                                              Savills estimates that over 1.1 million sq m of office space in
                                                                                               all grades, from around 60 projects is expected to enter the
(*) Note: In Q3 2009, Savills updated the grading of Office for lease report, which
led to changes in the number of Grade A, Grade B and Grade C office buildings .
                                                                                               market in the next 3 years. It is estimated that a total of
                                                                                               145,000 sq m of office space is set to launch in the market
                                                                                               from now to the end of 2009.
Market performance
                                                                                               Figure 3: Stock and new supply, Q4 2009 - 2012E
Average rent and occupancy rate in Q3 2009 saw a further
                                                                                                              m2
softening, though less dramatic. Regarding average rent,                                         2,000,000
Grade A and Grade B office buildings continued to
experience a downward trend, reflected by a q-o-q decline of                                     1,600,000
4.5% and 2% respectively. Regarding occupancy rate, Grade
                                                                                                 1,200,000
A picked up by 1% q-o-q while Grade B dropped by 9% q-o-q
due to the influx of new supply.
                                                                                                   800,000
Figure 2: Performance of the Ha Noi office market by grade
                                                                                                   400,000
                                                                             US$/sq m/month




         100%                                                           45
          90%                                                           40
          80%                                                           35                                0
          70%                                                           30                                      Q4 2009          2010           2011           2012
          60%
                                                                        25                                                 Current supply     New supply
          50%
                                                                        20
          40%
                                                                        15
          30%
                                                                        10
          20%                                                                                  Source: Savills Research and Consultancy, Q3 2009
          10%                                                           5
           0%                                                           0
                      Grade A         Grade B            Grade C                               In 2010 alone, 354,000 sq m of office space is set to launch
                        Occupancy rate (LHS)    Average rent (RHS)
                                                                                               in the market.

Source: Savills Research and Consultancy, Q3 2009


  For further information, please contact:
  vietnam – ho chi minh city                                       vietnam - hanoi                                             corporate website
  Brett Ashton                                                     Mathew Powell                                               www.savills.com
  Managing Director                                                Branch Director
  +84 8 3823 9205 – Ext.116                                        +84 4 3946 1300 – Ext.105
  bashton@savills.com.vn                                           MJPowell@savills.com.vn


  address                                                          address
  Savills Vietnam Ltd – Ho Chi Minh City                           Savills Vietnam Ltd – Hanoi
  18/F, Fideco Tower                                               13/F Pacific Place
  81-85 Ham Nghi , District 1                                      83b Ly Thuong Kiet, Hoan Kiem
  Ho Chi Minh City                                                 Hanoi
  Vietnam                                                          Vietnam
  T: +84 8 3823 9205                                               T: +84 4 3946 1300
  F: +84 8 3823 4571                                               F: +84 4 3946 1302
  This document is prepared by Savills for information only. Whilst reasonable care has been exercised in preparing this document, it is subject to change and these
  particulars do not constitute, nor constitute part of, an offer or contract, interested parties should not only rely on the statements or representations of fact but must satisfy
  themselves by inspection or otherwise as to the accuracy. No person in the employment of Savills has any authority to make any representations or waranties whatsoever
  in relation to these particulars and Savills cannot be held responsible for any liability whatsoever or for any loss howsoever arising from or in reliance upon the whole or any
  part of the contents of this document. This publication may not be reproduced in any form or in any manner, in part or as a whole without written permission of the publisher,
  Savills.© Savills Vietnam Co Limited. 2009
Retail
 Ha Noi, Vietnam                                                                                                                                   Q3/2009
Supply Trends                                                                                The CBD is still on top in terms of rents, from approximately
                                                                                             US$40 to US$150 with occupancy rate of almost above 90
Savills classifies the four main retail groups as follows:                                   percent. Right behind the CBD is the secondary area with
1) Shopping centre/ shopping mall, Department Store and                                      average rents varying from US$20 per square metre per
Hypermarket, 2) Supermarket (with area of 300 sq m or more),                                 month to a very high US$120 per square metre per month.
3) Wholesale centre, and 4) Retail podium.                                                   Rents in suburban area are relatively low, from US$7 to US$50
                                                                                             per square metre per month.
Vincom Galleries is the only new shopping centre coming
online in Q3 2009 with a net area of nearly 15,000 square                                    Demand Trends
metres. In Q3 2009, the total retail space is about 360,000
square metres, contributed by ten shopping centre/                                           Despite the economy slowdown, Vietnamese retail sales of
department store/ hypermarket, seventy-eight supermarkets                                    goods and services have maintained growth rates of about 20
and electronics marts, two wholesale centres, and twelve retail                              percent. Savills expects that the demand for retail space will
podiums. The CBD area performed quite well with a stable rent                                increase slightly as economy recovery is remaining on track.
and full occupancy most the time, while inappropriate market                                 However, high CPI might once again threaten spending on
positioning of projects has made it difficult for suburban and                               non-essentials, negatively affecting the retail sector.
secondary areas to operate effectively.
                                                                                             Future Outlook
Figure 1: Market share of retail area by location, Q3 2009
                                                                                             Figure 3: Stock and New Supply, Q4 2009 - 2012
                               CBD      Secondary      Suburban                                                                Existing stock      Future stock
                                                                                                                sq m
              100%                                                                               1,200,000
               90%
               80%                                                                               1,000,000
               70%
               60%                                                                                 800,000
               50%
               40%                                                                                 600,000
               30%
                                                                                                   400,000
               20%
               10%                                                                                 200,000
                0%
                          Q1 2009           Q2 2009          Q3 2009                                       0
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009                                                                     2009             2010             2011             2012

Figure 2: Market share of retail area by type, Q3 2009                                       Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q2 2009

                           Retail Podiums
                                                         Hypermarket                         Figure 3 shows that there will be about 11,200 square metres
   Supermarkets                  5%
                                                            24%                              possibly coming on line in Q4 2009. Projects that expect to
       31%
                                                                                             open in Q4 2009 include Tam Da Plaza (249A Thuy Khue) and
                                                                                             M5 building (Nguyen Chi Thanh Street). There will be
                                                                                             approximately 82,000 square metres of retail space entering
                                                                                             the market by 2010 due to the completion of some major
                                                                                             projects such as Cua Nam, Hang Da market, Ha Noi Plaza and
                                                                                             Sky City Tower. By 2011, Ha Noi is expected to have total new
                                                                   Shopping center           supply of retail area of about 425,000 square metres. The
             Wholesales                                                 16%
              Centres
                                            Department store                                 majority of future supply is located in the secondary area.
                                                  8%
               16%
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009



 For further information, please contact:
 vietnam – ho chi minh city                                    vietnam - hanoi                                                corporate website
 Brett Ashton                                                  Matthew Powell                                                 www.savills.com
 Managing Director                                             Branch Director
 +84 8 3823 9205 – Ext.116                                     +84 4 3946 1300 – Ext.105
 bashton@savills.com.vn                                        MJPowell@savills.com.vn


 address                                                       address
 Savills Vietnam Ltd – Ho Chi Minh City                        Savills Vietnam Ltd – Hanoi
 18/F, Fideco Tower                                            13/F Pacific Place
 81-85 Ham Nghi , District 1                                   83b Ly Thuong Kiet, Hoan Kiem
 Ho Chi Minh City                                              Hanoi
 Vietnam                                                       Vietnam
 T: +84 8 3823 9205                                            T: +84 4 3946 1300
 F: +84 8 3823 4571                                            F: +84 4 3946 1302
 This document is prepared by Savills for information only. Whilst reasonable care has been exercised in preparing this document, it is subject to change and these
 particulars do not constitute, nor constitute part of, an offer or contract, interested parties should not only rely on the statements or representations of fact but must satisfy
 themselves by inspection or otherwise as to the accuracy. No person in the employment of Savills has any authority to make any representations or waranties whatsoever
 in relation to these particulars and Savills cannot be held responsible for any liability whatsoever or for any loss howsoever arising from or in reliance upon the whole or any
 part of the contents of this document. This publication may not be reproduced in any form or in any manner, in part or as a whole without written permission of the publisher,
 Savills.© Savills Vietnam Co. Limited. 2009
Hotel
 Ha Noi, Vietnam                                                                                                                                   Q3/2009
Supply Trends                                                                                Demand Trends

The hotel market supply has increased from 5,576 rooms to                                    The demand of the hotel market across all grades decreased
5,678 rooms in Q3 2009 due to the entering of the 4-star                                     slightly in Q3 2009 due to a reduction in the number of
Mercure Ha Noi La Gare Hotel that provides 102 rooms. The                                    international visitors to Ha Noi. There were about 76,000
whole city currently has ten 5-star hotels accounting for 2,983                              international arrivals to Ha Noi in September 2009, down by
rooms and six 4-star hotels including 1,083 rooms.                                           9.6% against last month and reducing by 21.4% compared to
                                                                                             September 2008. The total number of arrivals in the first nine
Revenue per available room (RevPAR), Q3 2008 – Q3 2009                                       months was about 745,000, down by 19.8% compared to the
                                                                                             same period last year. The global crisis and H1N1 epidemic
  RevP A R (US$ )              5-star            4-star             4 and 5-star
                                                                                             still are the main reasons leading to the reduction.
 120

 100
                                                                                             Outlook

  80                                                                                         Savills estimates that about 1,180 new hotel rooms will enter
                                                                                             the market by the year 2010 and nearly 1,000 of those rooms
  60                                                                                         will be in the Tu Liem and Cau Giay districts in the western
                                                                                             suburbs of Ha Noi. It is noted that the Dan Chu and Oriental
  40
                                                                                             Pearl projects have been delayed until 2010.
  20
                                                                                             Existing Stock and Future Supply
   0
                                                                                                      No . o f ro o ms                 Existing sto ck         New supply
         Q3 2008         Q4 2008        Q1 2009        Q2 2009         Q3 2009
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009                                                   12,000

(*)The average room rate is the estimated average room rates exclusive of 5%                      10,000
service charge and 5% VAT.
                                                                                                   8,000
The industry performance decreased continuously in Q3 2009                                         6,000
due to the global economic crisis and H1N1 flu. The RevPAR
for 5-star hotel sector has shown a significant decline at about                                   4,000
10% quarter on quarter. RevPAV for the 4-star segment is
                                                                                                   2,000
unchanged from Q2 2009.
                                                                                                        0
The average room rate of the 5-star hotel sector decreased                                                           2010                  2011                 Future
10% quarter on quarter. The average occupancy of the
segment in Q3 2009 stayed at 51% as in the last two quarters,                                Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
which was the lowest rate in the last four years.
                                                                                             The total number of international visitors to Viet Nam in Q4
The average rental rate of the 4-star sector continued to                                    2009 might decline compared to Q4 2008, in spite of the
decrease by 5% against Q2 2009 and about 22% compared to                                     second step of the “Impressive Viet Nam” campaign being
the same period last year. Meanwhile, the average occupancy                                  extended until the end of 2009 and the government’s decision
increased from 52% in Q2 2009 to 54% in Q3 2009.                                             to spend more to promote the program. This is because the
                                                                                             tourism industry has not recovered yet and Viet Nam tour
                                                                                             prices are likely higher than other countries in Asia area.




 For further information, please contact:
 vietnam – ho chi minh city                                   vietnam - hanoi                                                 corporate website
 Brett Ashton                                                 Matthew Powell                                                  www.savills.com
 Managing Director                                            Branch Director
 +84 8 3823 9205 – Ext.116                                    +84 4 3946 1300 – Ext.105
 bashton@savills.com.vn                                       MJPowell@savills.com.vn


 address                                                      address
 Savills Vietnam Ltd – Ho Chi Minh City                       Savills Vietnam Ltd – Hanoi
 18/F, Fideco Tower                                           13/F Pacific Place
 81-85 Ham Nghi , District 1                                  83b Ly Thuong Kiet, Hoan Kiem
 Ho Chi Minh City                                             Hanoi
 Vietnam                                                      Vietnam
 T: +84 8 3823 9205                                           T: +84 4 3946 1300
 F: +84 8 3823 4571                                           F: +84 4 3946 1302
 This document is prepared by Savills for information only. Whilst reasonable care has been exercised in preparing this document, it is subject to change and these
 particulars do not constitute, nor constitute part of, an offer or contract, interested parties should not only rely on the statements or representations of fact but must satisfy
 themselves by inspection or otherwise as to the accuracy. No person in the employment of Savills has any authority to make any representations or waranties whatsoever
 in relation to these particulars and Savills cannot be held responsible for any liability whatsoever or for any loss howsoever arising from or in reliance upon the whole or any
 part of the contents of this document. This publication may not be reproduced in any form or in any manner, in part or as a whole without written permission of the publisher,
 Savills.© Savills Vietnam Co. Limited. 2009
Apartment for sale
 Ha Noi, Vietnam                                                                                                                                          Q3/2009
Supply Trends                                                                                2009 had a definite impact on buyers’ decision.

The total number of apartments available for sale from projects                              The housing demand from speculators was still low in Q3 2009
that are currently active in Q3 2009 is about more than 1,000                                due to the stock market’s rapid recovery in the second quarter
units. The majority of primary supply is concentrated in Tu Liem,                            and continuing to grow hotter during the third quarter of 2009.
Dong Da and Hai Ba Trung districts.                                                          This causes investors to focus much more on the stock market
                                                                                             than the property market.
Performance of the primary market (All Types) in Q3 2009
                                                                                             Outlook
                      Primary supply (LHS)
                      No . o f apartments so ld in Q3 2009 (LHS)
       Units          Average primary asking price excl. VA T (RHS)            US$/sq m      From the period Q4 2009 up to 2012, it is estimated that there
 600                                                                                4,000    will be at least 10,000 apartments launched in the market. Of
                                                                                             which, nearly 34% of the apartments belongs to Tu Liem
                                                                                    3,500
 500                                                                                         District, and approximately 30% are located in Cau Giay
                                                                                    3,000    District.
 400
                                                                                    2,500
                                                                                             Despite difficult domestic economic conditions foreseen in the
 300                                                                                2,000    short-term, the fundamentals for residential property demand
                                                                                    1,500    in Ha Noi should persist. However, delays and cancellations in
 200
                                                                                             implementing projects may happen accordingly and, therefore,
                                                                                    1,000
                                                                                             supply forecasts may require a downward revision.
 100
                                                                                    500
                                                                                             The primary market in Q4 2009 is expected to receive a new
  0                                                                                 0
          Tu Liem     Dong Da        Hai Ba Trung         Ba Dinh       Hoan Kiem
                                                                                             supply of nearly 2,000 units.

Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009                                              Future supply from Q4 2009 up to 2012 by district
                                                                                                        Units
The number of successful transactions in the overall primary                                   4,000

market in Q3 2009 was lower than the previous quarter. Only                                    3,500

around 400 apartments sold in Q3 2009 accounting for nearly                                    3,000
38% of the primary market in comparison to 610 apartments
                                                                                               2,500
sold in Q2 2009. That is probably due to the lack of
                                                                                               2,000
diversification of products in this market.
                                                                                               1,500

The overall average primary asking price in Q3 2009 is about                                   1,000

US$1,830 per square metre, which was an increase of 5.5%                                          500
against Q2 2009.
                                                                                                   0
                                                                                                         Tu Liem   Cau Giay   Dong Da   Hoang Mai   Ba Dinh   Thanh Xuan Long Bien   Hai Ba
The secondary market seems to have performed better than Q2                                                                                                                          Trung

2009. The average secondary asking prices have increased on                                  Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
all twelve studied districts, by 15.6% on average against Q2
2009. In this market, asking prices range from US$660 -                                      Savills believes that Q4 2009 will see no considerable change
US$4,200 per square metre.                                                                   in primary asking price of apartments of all grades against Q3
                                                                                             2009. However, prices and performance in the secondary
Demand Trends                                                                                market may be impacted, partly due to the enforcement of
                                                                                             personal income tax levied on real property transfers since the
Current demand in Q3 2009 in Ha Noi has not met with supply.                                 end of September 2009.
Only about 435 apartments are sold in the primary market and
the upward trend on prices in the secondary market against Q2

 For further information, please contact:
 vietnam – ho chi minh city                                           vietnam - hanoi                                             corporate website
 Brett Ashton                                                         Matthew Powell                                              www.savills.com
 Managing Director                                                    Branch Director
 +84 8 3823 9205 – Ext.116                                            +84 4 3946 1300 – Ext.105
 bashton@savills.com.vn                                               MJPowell@savills.com.vn


 address                                                              address
 Savills Vietnam Ltd – Ho Chi Minh City                               Savills Vietnam Ltd – Hanoi
 18/F, Fideco Tower                                                   13/F Pacific Place
 81-85 Ham Nghi , District 1                                          83b Ly Thuong Kiet, Hoan Kiem
 Ho Chi Minh City                                                     Hanoi
 Vietnam                                                              Vietnam
 T: +84 8 3823 9205                                                   T: +84 4 3946 1300
 F: +84 8 3823 4571                                                   F: +84 4 3946 1302
 This document is prepared by Savills for information only. Whilst reasonable care has been exercised in preparing this document, it is subject to change and these
 particulars do not constitute, nor constitute part of, an offer or contract, interested parties should not only rely on the statements or representations of fact but must satisfy
 themselves by inspection or otherwise as to the accuracy. No person in the employment of Savills has any authority to make any representations or waranties whatsoever
 in relation to these particulars and Savills cannot be held responsible for any liability whatsoever or for any loss howsoever arising from or in reliance upon the whole or any
 part of the contents of this document. This publication may not be reproduced in any form or in any manner, in part or as a whole without written permission of the publisher,
 Savills.© Savills Vietnam Co. Limited. 2009
Serviced Apartment
 Ha Noi, Vietnam                                                                                                                                   Q3/2009
Supply Trends                                                                                Demand Trends
The total supply of the serviced apartment market in Q3 2009                                 Generally, demand of the Ha Noi serviced apartment market
increased to more than 219,000 square metres by the addition                                 reduced across all three grades compared to Q2 2009. It is
of 100 units from Hanoi Fraser Suites building, located at 51                                likely due to the shift of a certain amount of expatriates to the
Xuan Dieu Street, Tay Ho District. Among these 100 new                                       secondary lease market from the owners’ apartments.
units, there are two penthouses introduced to the serviced
apartment market for the first time.                                                         The serviced apartment demand in the Ha Noi market is
                                                                                             mainly from expatriates working for embassies, international
Currently, forty-one studied buildings in seven districts of Ha                              NGOs and foreign companies. Although the signal of
Noi provide nearly 2,200 units for tenants. Supply stock is                                  economic recovery has been seen in many countries in the
classified into studio, from 1-bedroom to 6-bedroom and                                      world such as UK, America, etc, there may continue, in the
penthouse. They range in size from more than 40 square                                       short-term, to be a slight decrease in demand. International
metres to 560 square metres.                                                                 companies are still facing difficulties due to the lasting
                                                                                             economic crisis and are still weighing whether to return to Viet
Market performance of Ha Noi Serviced Apartment,                                             Nam for doing business long-term.
Q3 2008 – Q3 2009
              Occupancy rate (LHS)            Average Rent (RHS)                             Outlook

                                                                US$/ sq m/ month
                                                                                             Stocks and New Supply, 2009E Future
100%                                                                            30             Units                        Stock              New supply

                                                                                               4,000
                                                                                25
 80%
                                                                                               3,500
                                                                                20
 60%                                                                                           3,000
                                                                                15
                                                                                               2,500
 40%
                                                                                10             2,000
 20%
                                                                                5              1,500

  0%                                                                            0              1,000
          Q3 2008       Q4 2008       Q1 2009       Q2 2009        Q3 2009
                                                                                                 500
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
                                                                                                   0
*Estimated average achievable rent and service charge, exclusive of                                        2009           2010          2011           2012          Future
VAT, on a net area basis.                                                                    Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009
Since Q3 2008, the serviced apartment market has witnessed                                   In Q4 2009, new supply (10 units) is expected from Hanoi
continuous reductions of the average rent rate. Q3 2009                                      Fraser Suites in Tay Ho. By 2012, another seven serviced
showed a significant quarter on quarter reduction of 4.8%,                                   apartment projects are scheduled to complete and provide
equivalent to US$1.2 per square metre per month.                                             more than 1,200 units for the market.
The average occupancy rate of the serviced apartment market                                  Vinh Tuy Bridge has just been officially put into operation. Nhat
in Q3 2009 declined to 88%, down 3% compared to Q2 2009.                                     Tan Bridge is planning to be completed by 2012. There are
It seems this reduction has been caused by the addition of                                   many large on-going infrastructure projects connecting the
about 100 units, which is equal to around 4% growth of supply                                western zone of Ha Noi (previously Ha Tay) to the city centre,
stock against Q2 2009.                                                                       such as the extension of Le Van Luong Road and Metro Cat
                                                                                             Linh – Ha Dong. All such projects might have positive a impact
                                                                                             on the serviced apartment market in the future.

 For further information, please contact:
 vietnam – ho chi minh city                                   vietnam - hanoi                                                 corporate website
 Brett Ashton                                                 Matthew Powell                                                  www.savills.com
 Managing Director                                            Branch Director
 +84 8 3823 9205 – Ext.116                                    +84 4 3946 1300 – Ext.105
 bashton@savills.com.vn                                       MJPowell@savills.com.vn


 address                                                      address
 Savills Vietnam Ltd – Ho Chi Minh City                       Savills Vietnam Ltd – Hanoi
 18/F, Fideco Tower                                           13/F Pacific Place
 81-85 Ham Nghi , District 1                                  83b Ly Thuong Kiet, Hoan Kiem
 Ho Chi Minh City                                             Hanoi
 Vietnam                                                      Vietnam
 T: +84 8 3823 9205                                           T: +84 4 3946 1300
 F: +84 8 3823 4571                                           F: +84 4 3946 1302
 This document is prepared by Savills for information only. Whilst reasonable care has been exercised in preparing this document, it is subject to change and these
 particulars do not constitute, nor constitute part of, an offer or contract, interested parties should not only rely on the statements or representations of fact but must satisfy
 themselves by inspection or otherwise as to the accuracy. No person in the employment of Savills has any authority to make any representations or waranties whatsoever
 in relation to these particulars and Savills cannot be held responsible for any liability whatsoever or for any loss howsoever arising from or in reliance upon the whole or any
 part of the contents of this document. This publication may not be reproduced in any form or in any manner, in part or as a whole without written permission of the publisher,
 Savills.© Savills Vietnam Co. Limited. 2009

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Savills - Ha Noi Market Brief Q3 2009 ENG

  • 1. Office for Lease Ha Noi, Vietnam Q3/2009 Supply trends Grade C in Q3 2009 posted 78% in the occupancy rate with Three new office buildings namely Plaschem (Long Bien US$17 per square metre per month in the average rent. Dist.), CEO Tower (Tu Liem Dist.) and Handi Resco Tower (Ba Dinh Dist.) coming online in Q3 2009 increased the total Demand trends supply of Grade A, B & C offices to 493,000 sq m, consisting of 12 Grade A; 30 Grade B and 32 Grade C buildings. Demand of both Grade A and Grade B, as measured by net Thirty-two Grade C office buildings included since Q3 2009 absorption, bounced back in Q3 2009 due to positive signals added nearly 120,000 sq m of office space to the total current of the global economic recovery. However, it is observed that supply (*) new businesses are still cautious and less willing to take risks Figure 1: Current supply of office space by grade, Q3 2009 when making a decision to enter new lease contracts. With overall leasing enquiries remaining at low levels, landlords Grade A, concentrate on maintaining their current tenants within their Grade C, 105,275 , 119,305, 21% buildings by negotiating lease extensions well before expiry 24% of the existing contracts, and by offering competitive rents with attractive packages of incentives. Besides, Grade C office buildings are becoming another alternative for tenants, especially in the present economic context. Grade B, . 267,995 , 55% Outlook Source: Savills Research and Consultancy, Q3 2009 Savills estimates that over 1.1 million sq m of office space in all grades, from around 60 projects is expected to enter the (*) Note: In Q3 2009, Savills updated the grading of Office for lease report, which led to changes in the number of Grade A, Grade B and Grade C office buildings . market in the next 3 years. It is estimated that a total of 145,000 sq m of office space is set to launch in the market from now to the end of 2009. Market performance Figure 3: Stock and new supply, Q4 2009 - 2012E Average rent and occupancy rate in Q3 2009 saw a further m2 softening, though less dramatic. Regarding average rent, 2,000,000 Grade A and Grade B office buildings continued to experience a downward trend, reflected by a q-o-q decline of 1,600,000 4.5% and 2% respectively. Regarding occupancy rate, Grade 1,200,000 A picked up by 1% q-o-q while Grade B dropped by 9% q-o-q due to the influx of new supply. 800,000 Figure 2: Performance of the Ha Noi office market by grade 400,000 US$/sq m/month 100% 45 90% 40 80% 35 0 70% 30 Q4 2009 2010 2011 2012 60% 25 Current supply New supply 50% 20 40% 15 30% 10 20% Source: Savills Research and Consultancy, Q3 2009 10% 5 0% 0 Grade A Grade B Grade C In 2010 alone, 354,000 sq m of office space is set to launch Occupancy rate (LHS) Average rent (RHS) in the market. Source: Savills Research and Consultancy, Q3 2009 For further information, please contact: vietnam – ho chi minh city vietnam - hanoi corporate website Brett Ashton Mathew Powell www.savills.com Managing Director Branch Director +84 8 3823 9205 – Ext.116 +84 4 3946 1300 – Ext.105 bashton@savills.com.vn MJPowell@savills.com.vn address address Savills Vietnam Ltd – Ho Chi Minh City Savills Vietnam Ltd – Hanoi 18/F, Fideco Tower 13/F Pacific Place 81-85 Ham Nghi , District 1 83b Ly Thuong Kiet, Hoan Kiem Ho Chi Minh City Hanoi Vietnam Vietnam T: +84 8 3823 9205 T: +84 4 3946 1300 F: +84 8 3823 4571 F: +84 4 3946 1302 This document is prepared by Savills for information only. Whilst reasonable care has been exercised in preparing this document, it is subject to change and these particulars do not constitute, nor constitute part of, an offer or contract, interested parties should not only rely on the statements or representations of fact but must satisfy themselves by inspection or otherwise as to the accuracy. No person in the employment of Savills has any authority to make any representations or waranties whatsoever in relation to these particulars and Savills cannot be held responsible for any liability whatsoever or for any loss howsoever arising from or in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this document. This publication may not be reproduced in any form or in any manner, in part or as a whole without written permission of the publisher, Savills.© Savills Vietnam Co Limited. 2009
  • 2. Retail Ha Noi, Vietnam Q3/2009 Supply Trends The CBD is still on top in terms of rents, from approximately US$40 to US$150 with occupancy rate of almost above 90 Savills classifies the four main retail groups as follows: percent. Right behind the CBD is the secondary area with 1) Shopping centre/ shopping mall, Department Store and average rents varying from US$20 per square metre per Hypermarket, 2) Supermarket (with area of 300 sq m or more), month to a very high US$120 per square metre per month. 3) Wholesale centre, and 4) Retail podium. Rents in suburban area are relatively low, from US$7 to US$50 per square metre per month. Vincom Galleries is the only new shopping centre coming online in Q3 2009 with a net area of nearly 15,000 square Demand Trends metres. In Q3 2009, the total retail space is about 360,000 square metres, contributed by ten shopping centre/ Despite the economy slowdown, Vietnamese retail sales of department store/ hypermarket, seventy-eight supermarkets goods and services have maintained growth rates of about 20 and electronics marts, two wholesale centres, and twelve retail percent. Savills expects that the demand for retail space will podiums. The CBD area performed quite well with a stable rent increase slightly as economy recovery is remaining on track. and full occupancy most the time, while inappropriate market However, high CPI might once again threaten spending on positioning of projects has made it difficult for suburban and non-essentials, negatively affecting the retail sector. secondary areas to operate effectively. Future Outlook Figure 1: Market share of retail area by location, Q3 2009 Figure 3: Stock and New Supply, Q4 2009 - 2012 CBD Secondary Suburban Existing stock Future stock sq m 100% 1,200,000 90% 80% 1,000,000 70% 60% 800,000 50% 40% 600,000 30% 400,000 20% 10% 200,000 0% Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 0 Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 2009 2010 2011 2012 Figure 2: Market share of retail area by type, Q3 2009 Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q2 2009 Retail Podiums Hypermarket Figure 3 shows that there will be about 11,200 square metres Supermarkets 5% 24% possibly coming on line in Q4 2009. Projects that expect to 31% open in Q4 2009 include Tam Da Plaza (249A Thuy Khue) and M5 building (Nguyen Chi Thanh Street). There will be approximately 82,000 square metres of retail space entering the market by 2010 due to the completion of some major projects such as Cua Nam, Hang Da market, Ha Noi Plaza and Sky City Tower. By 2011, Ha Noi is expected to have total new Shopping center supply of retail area of about 425,000 square metres. The Wholesales 16% Centres Department store majority of future supply is located in the secondary area. 8% 16% Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 For further information, please contact: vietnam – ho chi minh city vietnam - hanoi corporate website Brett Ashton Matthew Powell www.savills.com Managing Director Branch Director +84 8 3823 9205 – Ext.116 +84 4 3946 1300 – Ext.105 bashton@savills.com.vn MJPowell@savills.com.vn address address Savills Vietnam Ltd – Ho Chi Minh City Savills Vietnam Ltd – Hanoi 18/F, Fideco Tower 13/F Pacific Place 81-85 Ham Nghi , District 1 83b Ly Thuong Kiet, Hoan Kiem Ho Chi Minh City Hanoi Vietnam Vietnam T: +84 8 3823 9205 T: +84 4 3946 1300 F: +84 8 3823 4571 F: +84 4 3946 1302 This document is prepared by Savills for information only. Whilst reasonable care has been exercised in preparing this document, it is subject to change and these particulars do not constitute, nor constitute part of, an offer or contract, interested parties should not only rely on the statements or representations of fact but must satisfy themselves by inspection or otherwise as to the accuracy. No person in the employment of Savills has any authority to make any representations or waranties whatsoever in relation to these particulars and Savills cannot be held responsible for any liability whatsoever or for any loss howsoever arising from or in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this document. This publication may not be reproduced in any form or in any manner, in part or as a whole without written permission of the publisher, Savills.© Savills Vietnam Co. Limited. 2009
  • 3. Hotel Ha Noi, Vietnam Q3/2009 Supply Trends Demand Trends The hotel market supply has increased from 5,576 rooms to The demand of the hotel market across all grades decreased 5,678 rooms in Q3 2009 due to the entering of the 4-star slightly in Q3 2009 due to a reduction in the number of Mercure Ha Noi La Gare Hotel that provides 102 rooms. The international visitors to Ha Noi. There were about 76,000 whole city currently has ten 5-star hotels accounting for 2,983 international arrivals to Ha Noi in September 2009, down by rooms and six 4-star hotels including 1,083 rooms. 9.6% against last month and reducing by 21.4% compared to September 2008. The total number of arrivals in the first nine Revenue per available room (RevPAR), Q3 2008 – Q3 2009 months was about 745,000, down by 19.8% compared to the same period last year. The global crisis and H1N1 epidemic RevP A R (US$ ) 5-star 4-star 4 and 5-star still are the main reasons leading to the reduction. 120 100 Outlook 80 Savills estimates that about 1,180 new hotel rooms will enter the market by the year 2010 and nearly 1,000 of those rooms 60 will be in the Tu Liem and Cau Giay districts in the western suburbs of Ha Noi. It is noted that the Dan Chu and Oriental 40 Pearl projects have been delayed until 2010. 20 Existing Stock and Future Supply 0 No . o f ro o ms Existing sto ck New supply Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 12,000 (*)The average room rate is the estimated average room rates exclusive of 5% 10,000 service charge and 5% VAT. 8,000 The industry performance decreased continuously in Q3 2009 6,000 due to the global economic crisis and H1N1 flu. The RevPAR for 5-star hotel sector has shown a significant decline at about 4,000 10% quarter on quarter. RevPAV for the 4-star segment is 2,000 unchanged from Q2 2009. 0 The average room rate of the 5-star hotel sector decreased 2010 2011 Future 10% quarter on quarter. The average occupancy of the segment in Q3 2009 stayed at 51% as in the last two quarters, Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 which was the lowest rate in the last four years. The total number of international visitors to Viet Nam in Q4 The average rental rate of the 4-star sector continued to 2009 might decline compared to Q4 2008, in spite of the decrease by 5% against Q2 2009 and about 22% compared to second step of the “Impressive Viet Nam” campaign being the same period last year. Meanwhile, the average occupancy extended until the end of 2009 and the government’s decision increased from 52% in Q2 2009 to 54% in Q3 2009. to spend more to promote the program. This is because the tourism industry has not recovered yet and Viet Nam tour prices are likely higher than other countries in Asia area. For further information, please contact: vietnam – ho chi minh city vietnam - hanoi corporate website Brett Ashton Matthew Powell www.savills.com Managing Director Branch Director +84 8 3823 9205 – Ext.116 +84 4 3946 1300 – Ext.105 bashton@savills.com.vn MJPowell@savills.com.vn address address Savills Vietnam Ltd – Ho Chi Minh City Savills Vietnam Ltd – Hanoi 18/F, Fideco Tower 13/F Pacific Place 81-85 Ham Nghi , District 1 83b Ly Thuong Kiet, Hoan Kiem Ho Chi Minh City Hanoi Vietnam Vietnam T: +84 8 3823 9205 T: +84 4 3946 1300 F: +84 8 3823 4571 F: +84 4 3946 1302 This document is prepared by Savills for information only. Whilst reasonable care has been exercised in preparing this document, it is subject to change and these particulars do not constitute, nor constitute part of, an offer or contract, interested parties should not only rely on the statements or representations of fact but must satisfy themselves by inspection or otherwise as to the accuracy. No person in the employment of Savills has any authority to make any representations or waranties whatsoever in relation to these particulars and Savills cannot be held responsible for any liability whatsoever or for any loss howsoever arising from or in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this document. This publication may not be reproduced in any form or in any manner, in part or as a whole without written permission of the publisher, Savills.© Savills Vietnam Co. Limited. 2009
  • 4. Apartment for sale Ha Noi, Vietnam Q3/2009 Supply Trends 2009 had a definite impact on buyers’ decision. The total number of apartments available for sale from projects The housing demand from speculators was still low in Q3 2009 that are currently active in Q3 2009 is about more than 1,000 due to the stock market’s rapid recovery in the second quarter units. The majority of primary supply is concentrated in Tu Liem, and continuing to grow hotter during the third quarter of 2009. Dong Da and Hai Ba Trung districts. This causes investors to focus much more on the stock market than the property market. Performance of the primary market (All Types) in Q3 2009 Outlook Primary supply (LHS) No . o f apartments so ld in Q3 2009 (LHS) Units Average primary asking price excl. VA T (RHS) US$/sq m From the period Q4 2009 up to 2012, it is estimated that there 600 4,000 will be at least 10,000 apartments launched in the market. Of which, nearly 34% of the apartments belongs to Tu Liem 3,500 500 District, and approximately 30% are located in Cau Giay 3,000 District. 400 2,500 Despite difficult domestic economic conditions foreseen in the 300 2,000 short-term, the fundamentals for residential property demand 1,500 in Ha Noi should persist. However, delays and cancellations in 200 implementing projects may happen accordingly and, therefore, 1,000 supply forecasts may require a downward revision. 100 500 The primary market in Q4 2009 is expected to receive a new 0 0 Tu Liem Dong Da Hai Ba Trung Ba Dinh Hoan Kiem supply of nearly 2,000 units. Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 Future supply from Q4 2009 up to 2012 by district Units The number of successful transactions in the overall primary 4,000 market in Q3 2009 was lower than the previous quarter. Only 3,500 around 400 apartments sold in Q3 2009 accounting for nearly 3,000 38% of the primary market in comparison to 610 apartments 2,500 sold in Q2 2009. That is probably due to the lack of 2,000 diversification of products in this market. 1,500 The overall average primary asking price in Q3 2009 is about 1,000 US$1,830 per square metre, which was an increase of 5.5% 500 against Q2 2009. 0 Tu Liem Cau Giay Dong Da Hoang Mai Ba Dinh Thanh Xuan Long Bien Hai Ba The secondary market seems to have performed better than Q2 Trung 2009. The average secondary asking prices have increased on Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 all twelve studied districts, by 15.6% on average against Q2 2009. In this market, asking prices range from US$660 - Savills believes that Q4 2009 will see no considerable change US$4,200 per square metre. in primary asking price of apartments of all grades against Q3 2009. However, prices and performance in the secondary Demand Trends market may be impacted, partly due to the enforcement of personal income tax levied on real property transfers since the Current demand in Q3 2009 in Ha Noi has not met with supply. end of September 2009. Only about 435 apartments are sold in the primary market and the upward trend on prices in the secondary market against Q2 For further information, please contact: vietnam – ho chi minh city vietnam - hanoi corporate website Brett Ashton Matthew Powell www.savills.com Managing Director Branch Director +84 8 3823 9205 – Ext.116 +84 4 3946 1300 – Ext.105 bashton@savills.com.vn MJPowell@savills.com.vn address address Savills Vietnam Ltd – Ho Chi Minh City Savills Vietnam Ltd – Hanoi 18/F, Fideco Tower 13/F Pacific Place 81-85 Ham Nghi , District 1 83b Ly Thuong Kiet, Hoan Kiem Ho Chi Minh City Hanoi Vietnam Vietnam T: +84 8 3823 9205 T: +84 4 3946 1300 F: +84 8 3823 4571 F: +84 4 3946 1302 This document is prepared by Savills for information only. Whilst reasonable care has been exercised in preparing this document, it is subject to change and these particulars do not constitute, nor constitute part of, an offer or contract, interested parties should not only rely on the statements or representations of fact but must satisfy themselves by inspection or otherwise as to the accuracy. No person in the employment of Savills has any authority to make any representations or waranties whatsoever in relation to these particulars and Savills cannot be held responsible for any liability whatsoever or for any loss howsoever arising from or in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this document. This publication may not be reproduced in any form or in any manner, in part or as a whole without written permission of the publisher, Savills.© Savills Vietnam Co. Limited. 2009
  • 5. Serviced Apartment Ha Noi, Vietnam Q3/2009 Supply Trends Demand Trends The total supply of the serviced apartment market in Q3 2009 Generally, demand of the Ha Noi serviced apartment market increased to more than 219,000 square metres by the addition reduced across all three grades compared to Q2 2009. It is of 100 units from Hanoi Fraser Suites building, located at 51 likely due to the shift of a certain amount of expatriates to the Xuan Dieu Street, Tay Ho District. Among these 100 new secondary lease market from the owners’ apartments. units, there are two penthouses introduced to the serviced apartment market for the first time. The serviced apartment demand in the Ha Noi market is mainly from expatriates working for embassies, international Currently, forty-one studied buildings in seven districts of Ha NGOs and foreign companies. Although the signal of Noi provide nearly 2,200 units for tenants. Supply stock is economic recovery has been seen in many countries in the classified into studio, from 1-bedroom to 6-bedroom and world such as UK, America, etc, there may continue, in the penthouse. They range in size from more than 40 square short-term, to be a slight decrease in demand. International metres to 560 square metres. companies are still facing difficulties due to the lasting economic crisis and are still weighing whether to return to Viet Market performance of Ha Noi Serviced Apartment, Nam for doing business long-term. Q3 2008 – Q3 2009 Occupancy rate (LHS) Average Rent (RHS) Outlook US$/ sq m/ month Stocks and New Supply, 2009E Future 100% 30 Units Stock New supply 4,000 25 80% 3,500 20 60% 3,000 15 2,500 40% 10 2,000 20% 5 1,500 0% 0 1,000 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 500 Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 0 *Estimated average achievable rent and service charge, exclusive of 2009 2010 2011 2012 Future VAT, on a net area basis. Source: Savills Research & Consultancy, Q3 2009 Since Q3 2008, the serviced apartment market has witnessed In Q4 2009, new supply (10 units) is expected from Hanoi continuous reductions of the average rent rate. Q3 2009 Fraser Suites in Tay Ho. By 2012, another seven serviced showed a significant quarter on quarter reduction of 4.8%, apartment projects are scheduled to complete and provide equivalent to US$1.2 per square metre per month. more than 1,200 units for the market. The average occupancy rate of the serviced apartment market Vinh Tuy Bridge has just been officially put into operation. Nhat in Q3 2009 declined to 88%, down 3% compared to Q2 2009. Tan Bridge is planning to be completed by 2012. There are It seems this reduction has been caused by the addition of many large on-going infrastructure projects connecting the about 100 units, which is equal to around 4% growth of supply western zone of Ha Noi (previously Ha Tay) to the city centre, stock against Q2 2009. such as the extension of Le Van Luong Road and Metro Cat Linh – Ha Dong. All such projects might have positive a impact on the serviced apartment market in the future. For further information, please contact: vietnam – ho chi minh city vietnam - hanoi corporate website Brett Ashton Matthew Powell www.savills.com Managing Director Branch Director +84 8 3823 9205 – Ext.116 +84 4 3946 1300 – Ext.105 bashton@savills.com.vn MJPowell@savills.com.vn address address Savills Vietnam Ltd – Ho Chi Minh City Savills Vietnam Ltd – Hanoi 18/F, Fideco Tower 13/F Pacific Place 81-85 Ham Nghi , District 1 83b Ly Thuong Kiet, Hoan Kiem Ho Chi Minh City Hanoi Vietnam Vietnam T: +84 8 3823 9205 T: +84 4 3946 1300 F: +84 8 3823 4571 F: +84 4 3946 1302 This document is prepared by Savills for information only. Whilst reasonable care has been exercised in preparing this document, it is subject to change and these particulars do not constitute, nor constitute part of, an offer or contract, interested parties should not only rely on the statements or representations of fact but must satisfy themselves by inspection or otherwise as to the accuracy. No person in the employment of Savills has any authority to make any representations or waranties whatsoever in relation to these particulars and Savills cannot be held responsible for any liability whatsoever or for any loss howsoever arising from or in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this document. This publication may not be reproduced in any form or in any manner, in part or as a whole without written permission of the publisher, Savills.© Savills Vietnam Co. Limited. 2009