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What is coming in 2012?




                     Saumil Shah
                    CEO, Net-Square
net-square        HACKCON7 Oslo - 29.03.12
# who am i
Saumil Shah, CEO Net-Square.
• Hacker, Speaker, Trainer,
  Author - 15 yrs in Infosec.
• M.S. Computer Science
     Purdue University.
• saumil@net-square.com
• LinkedIn: saumilshah
• Twitter: @therealsaumil
net-square
My area of work

   Penetration       Reverse      Exploit
     Testing       Engineering    Writing


        New         Offensive      Attack
      Research      Security      Defense


             Conference   "Eyes and
              Speaker     ears open"
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Highlights
                                        from
                                 2010-2011
net-square   "The Future is already here"
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DigiNotar - SSL Certificates




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Stuxnet




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RSA SecurID...




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...did it lead to this?




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Who had the last LOL?




                Infiltration is a 2 way street
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The economy is growing!!




Players
Services
Prices

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The Underground Marketplace

        SPAM     DDoS      Carding

                 Money      Target
     Botnets
                Exchange   Profiles

      0day       Botnet    Exploit
     Exploits     Kits      Packs
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Underground Economy
                     World of Warcraft account                                      $4
                     Paypal/Ebay account                                            $8
                     Credit Card                                                  $25
                     Bank Account                                             $1000
    0-day exploits   WMF Exploit                                              $4000
                     Quicktime/iTunes/RealPlaye                              $10000
                     r
                     Mac OS X                                              $10000
                                                                       + free Mac
                     Windows 7                                               $50000
                     IE / Firefox / Chrome                                 $100000
                     PDF                                                   $100000
                     SCADA                                               $250000+
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                     credit: Hacks Happen - Jeremiah Grossman - http://tinyurl.com/hacks-happen
CC Search, DDoS $80/day




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                 credit: From Russia With Love - Fyodor Yarochkin and The Grugq - http://tinyurl.com/frmrussiawlove
DIY Botnets for $700/yr




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Exploit Packs




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Trends in Exploit Development




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It was different 10 years ago!
• Individual effort.
• 1 week dev time.
• 3-6 months shelf life.
• Hundreds of public
  domain exploits.
• "We did it for the
  fame."



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Today...
                 • Team effort.
                 • 1-2 months dev time.
                 • 24h to 10d shelf life.
                 • Public domain
                   exploits ~ 0.
                 • Value of exploits has
                   significantly risen.



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No More Free Bugs




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High stakes game




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What the Defense is up to

               •   HIGH EXPOSURE
               •   Rigorous Internal Testing
               •   Proactive Exploit Mitigation Technology
               •   Quick Turnaround Times (24 hours)
               •   Bug Bounties




               •   HIGH EXPOSURE
               •   Good Efforts
               •   Don't have resources / focus
               •   Slow Turnaround Times (1 month)
               •   Learning the hard way



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/GS

     SafeSEH

         DEP

        ASLR

Permanent DEP

ASLR and DEP

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/GS    SEH overwrites

     SafeSEH    non-SEH DLLs

         DEP    Return to LibC

        ASLR     Heap Sprays

Permanent DEP        ROP

ASLR and DEP    ROP+memleak

 net-square
I can haz sploits!?




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The buyers

                         .gov



                         Exploits


             corporate              organized
             espionage                crime




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The prices
Vulnerability            Value (USD)                Source
"Some exploits"          200,000-250,000            Govt. official referring to what
                                                    "some people" pay.
A "real good" exploit    > 100,000                  SNOsoft Research Team
Chrome exploit           upto 60,000                Google
Vista exploit            50,000                     Raimund Genes, Trend Micro
Weaponized exploit       20,000-30,000              David Maynor, Secureworks
ZDI/iDefense purchases   2,000-10,000               David Maynor, Secureworks
WMF exploit              4,000                      Alexander Gostev, Kaspersky
Google exploit           500-3133.7                 Google
Mozilla exploit          500-3000                   Mozilla
Microsoft Excel          > 1,200                    Ebay auction site


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                             credit: Charlie Miller - http://securityevaluators.com/files/papers/0daymarket.pdf
"We pay better."




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Exploit Sophistication




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Exploit Sophistication


   ms10-002                 Java
   ieobject                Applet
  full ASLR+DEP
      bypass              Drive-by

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Web App Vulnerabilities


             HTML       HTTP
        Bloated
                         +0.1
       standards
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Application
   HTTP
                 Delivery


AJAX           Authentication
Flash          Statefulness
Sandbox        Data Typing
HTML5          Non-mutable
CSP
CORS...




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Breaches in 2011
855 incidents                  174M records




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                           credit: Verizon Data Breach Incident Report 2011
Attack Techniques 2007-2011




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                       credit: Verizon Data Breach Incident Report 2011
Popular Attack Techniques

         Stolen login credentials
               Keyloggers
                   C&C
                Backdoors
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                            credit: Verizon Data Breach Incident Report 2011
96% attacks were
"not difficult"




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                   credit: Verizon Data Breach Incident Report 2011
The Bad Guys




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Extent of damage caused
Sony breach
• $170 million

T J Maxx breach
• $17 million




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Nick Leeson $1.31b     Kweku Adoboli $2b




             Jerome Kerviel
                              Bernie Madoff $50b
net-square       $7.22b
Software Developers...
• ...more dependent on external tools and
  frameworks for security.
• Less on design and proper
  implementation.




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Software Development Trends
 17 million devs
                     102 billion lines of code
   6000 LOC/yr                in 2008

             1 bug per 10000 lines of code

             10,200,000 defects per year

 1% exploitable?        102,000 0-days/yr
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                         credit: Hacks Happen - Jeremiah Grossman - http://tinyurl.com/hacks-happen
Security Products
• Same ol' same ol'
• FW IDS IPS AV SIEM
  UTM DLP DPI WAF ...

• "Sit back and watch
  das blinkenlights"




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Do Signatures Work?




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Effectiveness of AV/IDS/IPS/...




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                          credit: twitter.com/j0emccray
The weak minded are easily tricked
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"A wall is only as good as those
               who defend it"
                                Genghis Khan




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Change in Mindset

       "We assume that all our
           Internet Banking
        customers' computers
        are compromised. We
        now rely on near real-
        time fraud analytics."
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The FUTURE?



             Full ASLR by 2014
             Mobile Attacks
             Real Time Analytics
             Blurred boundaries
             IPv6

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2012: The End of the World?

  • 1. What is coming in 2012? Saumil Shah CEO, Net-Square net-square HACKCON7 Oslo - 29.03.12
  • 2. # who am i Saumil Shah, CEO Net-Square. • Hacker, Speaker, Trainer, Author - 15 yrs in Infosec. • M.S. Computer Science Purdue University. • saumil@net-square.com • LinkedIn: saumilshah • Twitter: @therealsaumil net-square
  • 3. My area of work Penetration Reverse Exploit Testing Engineering Writing New Offensive Attack Research Security Defense Conference "Eyes and Speaker ears open" net-square
  • 4. Highlights from 2010-2011 net-square "The Future is already here"
  • 6. DigiNotar - SSL Certificates net-square
  • 9. ...did it lead to this? net-square
  • 10. Who had the last LOL? Infiltration is a 2 way street net-square
  • 11. The economy is growing!! Players Services Prices net-square
  • 14. The Underground Marketplace SPAM DDoS Carding Money Target Botnets Exchange Profiles 0day Botnet Exploit Exploits Kits Packs net-square
  • 15. Underground Economy World of Warcraft account $4 Paypal/Ebay account $8 Credit Card $25 Bank Account $1000 0-day exploits WMF Exploit $4000 Quicktime/iTunes/RealPlaye $10000 r Mac OS X $10000 + free Mac Windows 7 $50000 IE / Firefox / Chrome $100000 PDF $100000 SCADA $250000+ net-square credit: Hacks Happen - Jeremiah Grossman - http://tinyurl.com/hacks-happen
  • 16. CC Search, DDoS $80/day net-square credit: From Russia With Love - Fyodor Yarochkin and The Grugq - http://tinyurl.com/frmrussiawlove
  • 17. DIY Botnets for $700/yr net-square
  • 19. Trends in Exploit Development net-square
  • 20. It was different 10 years ago! • Individual effort. • 1 week dev time. • 3-6 months shelf life. • Hundreds of public domain exploits. • "We did it for the fame." net-square
  • 21. Today... • Team effort. • 1-2 months dev time. • 24h to 10d shelf life. • Public domain exploits ~ 0. • Value of exploits has significantly risen. net-square
  • 22. No More Free Bugs net-square
  • 24. What the Defense is up to • HIGH EXPOSURE • Rigorous Internal Testing • Proactive Exploit Mitigation Technology • Quick Turnaround Times (24 hours) • Bug Bounties • HIGH EXPOSURE • Good Efforts • Don't have resources / focus • Slow Turnaround Times (1 month) • Learning the hard way net-square
  • 25. /GS SafeSEH DEP ASLR Permanent DEP ASLR and DEP net-square
  • 26. /GS SEH overwrites SafeSEH non-SEH DLLs DEP Return to LibC ASLR Heap Sprays Permanent DEP ROP ASLR and DEP ROP+memleak net-square
  • 27. I can haz sploits!? net-square
  • 28. The buyers .gov Exploits corporate organized espionage crime net-square
  • 29. The prices Vulnerability Value (USD) Source "Some exploits" 200,000-250,000 Govt. official referring to what "some people" pay. A "real good" exploit > 100,000 SNOsoft Research Team Chrome exploit upto 60,000 Google Vista exploit 50,000 Raimund Genes, Trend Micro Weaponized exploit 20,000-30,000 David Maynor, Secureworks ZDI/iDefense purchases 2,000-10,000 David Maynor, Secureworks WMF exploit 4,000 Alexander Gostev, Kaspersky Google exploit 500-3133.7 Google Mozilla exploit 500-3000 Mozilla Microsoft Excel > 1,200 Ebay auction site net-square credit: Charlie Miller - http://securityevaluators.com/files/papers/0daymarket.pdf
  • 32. Exploit Sophistication ms10-002 Java ieobject Applet full ASLR+DEP bypass Drive-by net-square
  • 33. Web App Vulnerabilities HTML HTTP Bloated +0.1 standards net-square
  • 34. Application HTTP Delivery AJAX Authentication Flash Statefulness Sandbox Data Typing HTML5 Non-mutable CSP CORS... net-square
  • 35. Breaches in 2011 855 incidents 174M records net-square credit: Verizon Data Breach Incident Report 2011
  • 36. Attack Techniques 2007-2011 net-square credit: Verizon Data Breach Incident Report 2011
  • 37. Popular Attack Techniques Stolen login credentials Keyloggers C&C Backdoors net-square credit: Verizon Data Breach Incident Report 2011
  • 38. 96% attacks were "not difficult" net-square credit: Verizon Data Breach Incident Report 2011
  • 40. Extent of damage caused Sony breach • $170 million T J Maxx breach • $17 million net-square
  • 41. Nick Leeson $1.31b Kweku Adoboli $2b Jerome Kerviel Bernie Madoff $50b net-square $7.22b
  • 42. Software Developers... • ...more dependent on external tools and frameworks for security. • Less on design and proper implementation. net-square
  • 43. Software Development Trends 17 million devs 102 billion lines of code 6000 LOC/yr in 2008 1 bug per 10000 lines of code 10,200,000 defects per year 1% exploitable? 102,000 0-days/yr net-square credit: Hacks Happen - Jeremiah Grossman - http://tinyurl.com/hacks-happen
  • 44. Security Products • Same ol' same ol' • FW IDS IPS AV SIEM UTM DLP DPI WAF ... • "Sit back and watch das blinkenlights" net-square
  • 46. Effectiveness of AV/IDS/IPS/... net-square credit: twitter.com/j0emccray
  • 47. The weak minded are easily tricked net-square
  • 48. "A wall is only as good as those who defend it" Genghis Khan net-square
  • 49. Change in Mindset "We assume that all our Internet Banking customers' computers are compromised. We now rely on near real- time fraud analytics." net-square
  • 50. The FUTURE? Full ASLR by 2014 Mobile Attacks Real Time Analytics Blurred boundaries IPv6 net-square

Editor's Notes

  1. DEMO (c)