Power Ppt

16,460 views

Published on

2 Comments
4 Likes
Statistics
Notes
No Downloads
Views
Total views
16,460
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
4
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
252
Comments
2
Likes
4
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Power Ppt

  1. 1. POWER : DRIVING INDIA BY SUDIPTA SAR
  2. 2. <ul><li>Overview – observing industry </li></ul><ul><li>Industry structure </li></ul><ul><li>Sectorial overview </li></ul><ul><li>Industry Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Conclusion </li></ul>AGENDA
  3. 3. GLOBAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION
  4. 4. Correlation between GDP & Power generation Correlations GDP POWER GDP Pearson Correlation 1.000 o.396 Sig. (2-tailed) .958 N 10.000 10 Power Pearson Correlation .396 1.000 Sig. (2-tailed) .958 N 10 10.000
  5. 5. Same Fuel Mix as now Aggressive Nuclear Capacity Addition <ul><li>Reduction in annual coal consumption ~ 100 Million Tons </li></ul><ul><li>Reduction in annual CO 2 Emissions > 170 Million Tons </li></ul>Indian Energy Scenarios: 2015
  6. 6. Primary energy consumption per capita
  7. 7. <ul><li>Low penetration providing significant opportunities for future growth Over 400 million people without appropriate access to electricity </li></ul>Source: World Energy Outlook, 2006; Human Development Report 2007-08, Source: China Electricity Council, China Power Year Book, Government of India, Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation Per Capita Consumption of Electricit y Large investment required to achieve Govt. target of per capita consumption of 1,000 KWh by 2012 Comparison with China India - Low penetration and underserved market India China Installed capacity in 2006 (GW) 132 622 Per capita consumption (per kWh) 618 1,684 Capacity growth rate over the past 6 years 4.4% 11.8% Capacity addition in past 6 years (GW) 30 303
  8. 8. POWER DEMAND SUPPLY GAP (BU) <ul><li>Effect of the gap: </li></ul><ul><li>Industries under utilised </li></ul><ul><li>Lac of irrigation –lower agriculture growth </li></ul><ul><li>↓↓ </li></ul><ul><li>Lower GDP </li></ul>Widening demand supply gap Inability of Centre/ State to meet capacity addition Power sector reforms Huge opportunity for private sector participation
  9. 9. $2,300 Bn $1,900 Bn High Investment Demand Scenario (3%) Low Investment Demand Scenario (2%) Historic Future Private Capital Mobilized in Power Sector Gap covered by public financing, self - financing, donor funding, and rationing. Total Power Investment ($Billion) Cumulative Sum ($Bn) Source: : World Bank, IEA, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Emerging Markets Group Financing required for the Power Sector in India 1990 - 2020 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0 160.0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Indian market environment – Demand for Power Investment - a large Growing Gap?
  10. 10. SOURCE : IDEAs workshop Delhi Major Stages in Electricity Sector NTPC 1975-90 I ncreased Access & Federal intervention Growth 1950–75 Major Growth, Public Ownership IPP Era 1991-98 Private Power Projects E Act 2003 Competition WB Model 1996-2002 Orissa & others
  11. 11. Power is a concurrent subject Multiple stakeholders with different functions <ul><ul><li>Sets the vision (Vision 2012) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Frames laws (Electricity Act, 2003) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Frames taxation policies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sets investment guidelines (FI sectoral limits etc) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New National Electricity Policy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New National Tariff Policy (Draft) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Owns and controls State Electricity Boards </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Constitutes state regulatory body </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Determines extent of subsidies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Significant presence across the system </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>National Thermal Power Corporation </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Power Grid Corporation of India </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>National Hydro Power Corporation </li></ul></ul></ul>SEB’s (30) Central public utilities * <ul><ul><li>Accounts for 11% of generation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Present in distribution (e.g., Mumbai, Delhi, Kolkata, Orissa parts of Gujarat) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Two large players – TPC and REL, several small players - IPPs (e.g., GMR, Torrent ) and Distcoms (e.g., AESC, CESC) </li></ul></ul>COMPLEX INDUSTRY STRUCTURE WITH MULTIPLE STAKEHOLDERS Central government 30 State governments Public utilities * * * * * * * * Private sector
  12. 12. 20th Dec 2005 IDEAs workshop Delhi SOURCES Competition in Power (Bulk / Retail )
  13. 13. Conventional View of the Industry Structure
  14. 14. The Emerging View - anchored in competition
  15. 16. THERMAL POWER <ul><li>Oldest sector in india </li></ul><ul><li>Contribution: -65% of total electricity generation </li></ul><ul><li>Generates :-86015MW (as on March 31,2007), By 2011- expected 78000MW </li></ul><ul><li>Key players: - NTPC, RPL,DVC,PGCL,TATA POWER </li></ul><ul><li>GOVT. INITIATIVES: - </li></ul><ul><li>proposal of ten UMPPs each of capacity 4000MW (in 11 th five year plan) ,projects awarded to Reliance Power & Tata Power </li></ul>
  16. 17. <ul><li>Inferred potential > 120 GW </li></ul><ul><li>Installed capacity 30 GW </li></ul><ul><li>Most big projects are in North-Eastern states of Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Uttaranchal and J&K </li></ul><ul><li>Problems of rehabilitation and resettlement with large projects </li></ul><ul><li>Environmental issues </li></ul><ul><li>Water sharing agreements with neighbors </li></ul>National Hydro Power Corporation, Government of India Hydro-Electricity
  17. 18. Possible Gas Imports (Tongia & Arunachalam, 1999) Natural Gas Gas Authority of India Limited India’s Gas Pipelines
  18. 19. In general, wind speeds lower (~200W/m2) in India as compared to Europe (350 W/m2) and US WIND ENERGY Denmark US
  19. 20. <ul><li>123 Agreement </li></ul>Nuclear Power: The Present Status
  20. 21. India has been pursuing a 3-stage Nuclear Power Program. The first stage - Pressurized heavy water reactors (PHWRs) and associated fuel cycle facilities. The second sta ge - Fast breeder reactors (FBRs) backed by reprocessing plants and plutonium based fuel fabrication plants. The third stage - thorium-uranium-233 cycle. Utilization of thorium.
  21. 22. THANK YOU

×