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Exe mba10 ee-nuclear energy_sarjeevan_20104006

  1. 1. Energy EconomicsOverview of Nuclear Energy in India SARJEEVAN SAINBHI 20104006 15 Months Executive MBA programme, School Of Petroleum Management, pandit Deendayal Petroleum University, Gandhinagar. th 17 June 2011
  2. 2. Overview of Nuclear Energy In India Sarjeevan Sainbhi (20104006) List of Abbreviation AEC Atomic Energy Commission MWe Mega Watt Electric AERB Atomic Energy Regulatory Board NPCIL Nuclear power corporation of India BHAVIN Bharatiya Nabhikiya Vidyut Nigam NPT Non-proliferation Treaty Limited NSG Nuclear supplier Group BWR Boiler water Reactor PHWR Pressurized heavy water reactor CCGT Combined Cycle Gas Turbine PLF Plant load factor DAE Department of Atomic Energy PWR Pressurized water reactor IEA International Energy Association RAR Reasonably assured resources ITER International Thermonuclear RES Renewable Energy Sources Experimental Reactor SNF Spent nuclear reactor FNR Fast Neutron Reactor U Uranium LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas UCIL 1. Uranium corporation of India MNRE Ministry of New and Renewable Energy List of Figures Figure No. Description Pg. No. Figure-1 India’s nuclear power capacity to 2011 3 Figure-2 India’s nuclear power capacity to 2016 4 Figure-3 Location & capacity detail of nuclear power plant in India 5 Figure-4 Location of uranium resources in India. 6 Figure-5 The location of uranium resources in India. 8 Figure-6 Cost for electricity generation in India 9 Figure-7 Indian Regulation & Safety in nuclear power 11 List of Tables Table No. Description Pg. No. Table-1 Advantages & Disadvantages of Nuclear Energy 1 Table-2 Electricity Power generation in India 3 Table-3 Heat value of various fuel 9 Table-4 Nuclear Energy production Estimation 15 Table-5 Growth rate Projection on consumption of Uranium 17
  3. 3. Overview of Nuclear Energy In India Sarjeevan Sainbhi (20104006) Table of Contents1.0 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................... 12.0 WHAT IS NUCLEAR POWER? ................................................................................................. 2 2.1 NEW URANIUM DEPOSITS IN ANDHRA PRADESH ..................................................... 23.0 NUCLEAR POWER GROWTH IN INDIA ................................................................................... 24.0 NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS IN INDIA ...................................................................................... 45.0 URANIUM RESOURCES IN INDIA ........................................................................................... 36.0 RADIOACTIVE WASTE MANAGEMENT IN INDIA .................................................................... 67.0 ECONOMICAL & TECHNOLOGICAL REASON FOR HAVING NUCLEAR POWER PLANT ........... 7 7.1 ECONOMICAL REASONS ............................................................................................ 7 7.2 TECHNOLOGICAL REASON ......................................................................................... 98.0 COST COMPARISON OF NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS ............................................................ 109.0 THE NUCLEAR LIABILITY BILL .................................................................................................. 1010.0 REGULATION AND SAFETY IN NUCLEAR POWER ...................................................................... 1011.0 US-INDIA AGREEMENT AND NUCLEAR SUPPLIERS GROUP ...................................................... 1112.0 CHALLENGES HINDERING NUCLEAR GROWTH IN INDIA ........................................................... 1213.0 CONCLUSION ...................................................................................................................... 1314.0 REFERENCES ....................................................................................................................... 14ANNEXURE I (Nuclear Energy Utilization Estimation) ................................................................... 15 Page 3 of 17
  4. 4. Overview of Nuclear Energy In India Sarjeevan Sainbhi (20104006)"Nuclear Power is a genuine economic option in terms of Long Range Marginal Cost (LRMC)advantages for power supply at locations far remote from coal reserves, particularly if hydel sourcesare not available in these areas"  Prof. Yoginder K. Alagh, Union Minister of State for Power, Govt. of India (1996-1998)1.0 INTRODUCTION Nuclear power is the fourth-largest source of electricity in India after thermal, hydroelectric and renewable sources of electricity. As of 2010, India has 20 nuclear reactors in operation in six nuclear power plants, generating 4,780 MW. While 5 other plants are under construction and are expected to generate an additional 2,720 MW. Indias nuclear power industry is undergoing rapid expansion with plans to increase nuclear power output to 64,000 MW by 2032. Following a waiver from the Nuclear Suppliers Group in September 2008 which allowed it to commence international nuclear trade, India has signed bilateral deals on civilian nuclear energy technology cooperation with several other countries, including France, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada. India has also uranium supply agreements with Russia, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Argentina and Namibia. India now envisages to increase the contribution of nuclear power to overall electricity generation capacity from 4.2% to 9% within 25 years. As of 2009, India stands 9th in the world in terms of number of operational nuclear power reactors. Table-1 describes the advantages & disadvantages of Nuclear Energy. Nuclear Advantages Disadvantages Energy  Fuel is inexpensive  Requires larger capital cost because of  Energy generation is the most emergency, containment, radioactive concentrated source waste and storage systems  Waste is more compact than  Requires resolution of the long-term any source high level waste storage issue in most  Extensive scientific basis for the countries cycle  Easy to transport as new fuel Potential nuclear proliferation issue No greenhouse or acid rain effects Table-1 Advantages & Disadvantages of Nuclear Energy Page 1 of 19
  5. 5. Overview of Nuclear Energy In India Sarjeevan Sainbhi (20104006)2.0 WHAT IS NUCLEAR POWER? Nuclear power is produced by controlled nuclear fission reaction. Nuclear fission is a nuclear reaction in which the nucleus of an atom splits into smaller parts (lighter nuclei), often producing free neutrons and photons. The amount of free energy contained in nuclear fuel is millions of times the amount of free energy contained in a similar mass of chemical fuel such as gasoline, making nuclear fission a very tempting source of energy. Mostly Uranium 235 is used as fuel for the fission reactions in nuclear power reactors. Commercial and utility plants currently use nuclear fission reactions to heat water to produce steam, which is then used to generate electricity.3.0 NUCLEAR POWER GROWTH IN INDIA The Indian nuclear power industry is expected to undergo a significant expansion in the coming years thanks in part to the passing of the U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Agreement. This agreement will allow India to carry out trade of nuclear fuel and technologies with other countries and significantly enhance its power generation capacity. When the agreement goes through, India is expected to generate an additional 25,000 MW of nuclear power by 2020, bringing total estimated nuclear power generation to 45,000 MW. India is also involved in the development of nuclear fusion reactors through its participation in the ITER project and is a global leader in the development of thorium-based fast breeder reactors. Electricity demand in India is increasing rapidly, and the 830 billion kilowatt hours produced in 2008 was triple the 1990 output, though still represented only some 700 kWh per capita for the year. With huge transmission losses, this resulted in only 591 billion kWh consumption. Coal provides 54% of the electricity at present, but reserves are limited. Gas provides 10%, hydro 22%. The per capita electricity consumption figure is expected to double by 2020, with 6.3% annual growth, and reach 5000-6000 kWh by 2050. Table-2 shows the electricity power generation in India. Page 2 of 17
  6. 6. Overview of Nuclear Energy In India Sarjeevan Sainbhi (20104006) Electricity Power generation in India FUEL MW %age Total Thermal 113559.48 65.12 Coal 94,653.38 54.28 Gas 17,706.35 10.15 Oil 1,199.75 0.68 Hydro (Renewable) 37,567.40 21.54 Nuclear 4,780.00 2.74 RES** (MNRE) 18,454.52 10.58 TOTAL 1,74,361.40 100.00 Table-2 Electricity Power generation in India Source: http://www.powermin.nic.in/ Figure-1 shows the India’s nuclear power capacity to 2011 & Figure-2 shows the India’s nuclear power capacity to 2016 Figure-1 India’s nuclear power capacity to 2011 Page 3 of 17
  7. 7. Overview of Nuclear Energy In India Sarjeevan Sainbhi (20104006) Figure-2 India’s nuclear power capacity to 20164.0 NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS IN INDIA Currently, twenty nuclear power reactors produce 4,780.00 MW. Figure-3 shows the location & capacity detail of nuclear power plant in India. Page 4 of 17
  8. 8. Overview of Nuclear Energy In India Sarjeevan Sainbhi (20104006) Figure-3 Location & capacity detail of nuclear power plant in India5.0 URANIUM RESOURCES IN INDIA Indias uranium resources are modest, with 73,000 tonnes U as reasonably assured resources (RAR) and 33,000 tonnes as inferred resources in situ (to $130/kgU) at January 2009. Accordingly, from 2009 India is expecting to import an increasing proportion of its uranium fuel needs. Large deposits of natural uranium, which promises to be one of the top 20 of the worlds reserves, have been found in the Tummalapalle belt in the southern part of the Kadapa basin in Andhra Pradesh in March 2011. The Atomic Minerals Directorate for Exploration and Research (AMD) of India, which explores uranium in the country, has so far discovered 44,000 tonnes of natural uranium (U3O8) in just 15 km of the 160-km long belt. Figure-4 shows the location of uranium resources in India. Page 5 of 17
  9. 9. Overview of Nuclear Energy In India Sarjeevan Sainbhi (20104006) Figure-4 Location of uranium resources in India.6.0 RADIOACTIVE WASTE MANAGEMENT IN INDIA Radioactive wastes from the nuclear reactors and reprocessing plants are treated and stored at each site. Waste immobilization plants are in operation at Tarapur and Trombay and another is being constructed at Kalpakkam. Research on final disposal of high-level and long- lived wastes in a geological repository is in progress at BARC. Page 6 of 17
  10. 10. Overview of Nuclear Energy In India Sarjeevan Sainbhi (20104006)7.0 ECONOMICAL & TECHNOLOGICAL REASON FOR HAVING NUCLEAR POWER PLANT7.1 Economical Reason Nuclear power reactors are expensive to build but relatively cheap to operate. Their economic competitiveness thus depends on keeping construction to schedule so that capital costs do not blow out, and then operating them at reasonably high capacity over many years. By way of contrast, gas-fired power plants are very cheap and quick to build, but relatively very expensive to operate due to the cost of their fuel. With rising gas prices, and the high cost of moving coal long distances, nuclear plants are generally competitive with both gas and coal in most parts of the world, and becoming more so. There are three reasons to have & prioritize nuclear power plant. The first reason is that in terms of Long Range Marginal Cost (LRMC) advantages, nuclear power is a genuine economic option for power supply at locations far remote from coal reserves, particularly if hydel sources are not available in those areas. Further, the teething problems faced during indigenizing the technology used in manufacturing nuclear power equipments in the mid 80s were over by the early 90s. Today, India is one of the few countries which is entirely self reliant in this field, more so than comparable countries like South Korea. The third feature is that in recent years, Indias nuclear power plants have been running at good capacity utilization levels. PLFs are now close to design levels and this means costs are close to normative levels. The Plant Load Factor (PLF) of nuclear power plants in operation in the year 2009-10 was 61% & as of 2010-11 was 62.34 % (programmed) & 76.54 %. A country should choose an optimal mix between thermal, hydro, nuclear, renewable and non-conventional energy sources. In fact there is no standard prescription to choose this optimal mix, but it should be studied in detail specifically for each country as solutions differ for every country. Thus, India has to choose its own mix and proceed accordingly. Considering the projected demand for electricity in the medium and long terms in the country, it is imperative to utilize all possible sources of energy. Although large parameters in new electricity generation systems are expected to be from thermal and hydel power plants with all the prevailing constraints, nuclear power is definitely a viable option to supplement the energy requirements of the country. At present, among available energy, apart from coal and hydro, nuclear energy is the only attractive alternative which can fill the increasing gap between demand and supply. It is necessary to develop nuclear power, independent of short term economic considerations, also for the following reasons:- Page 7 of 17
  11. 11. Overview of Nuclear Energy In India Sarjeevan Sainbhi (20104006) 1. Long-term need to develop alternative energy systems; 2. Utilizations of Uranium resources and large amounts of Thorium the country is endowed with. It is estimated that indigenous thorium deposits can sustain about 300,000 MWe of electricity generation capacity for about 300 years; 3. To limit green house gases such as carbon dioxide from thermal stations; 4. To limit long term energy needs which cannot be met by the limited fossil resources which are also required for consumption in sectors other than the power industry. 5. CO2 emissions of India will increase to 7.3 billion tons annually by 2031. Figure-5 shows the details. 6. Cost for electricity generation through nuclear energy is comparable to Coal & Gas. Figure-6 shows the details. 7. Nuclear Energy production Estimation as calculated in Annexure I outline’s the benefits of using the Nuclear Energy in India. Annexure I show the calculation for finding out no. of year electricity that can be produced with uranium considering growth in electricity demand & considering nuclear power plant growth. Figure-5 The location of uranium resources in India. Page 8 of 17
  12. 12. Overview of Nuclear Energy In India Sarjeevan Sainbhi (20104006) Figure-6 Cost for electricity generation in India7.2 Technological Reason7.2.1 Heat value of various Fuels: Fuel type Heat value % carbon CO2 Crude oil 42-44 MJ/kg 89 70-73 g/MJ Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) 49 MJ/kg 81 59 g/MJ Bituminous coal 24 to 35 45 to 86 88.13 g/MJ MJ/kg Natural uranium, in FNR 28,000 GJ/kg 0 0 Table-3 Heat value of various fuels7.2.2 Nuclear heat can be used for production of liquid hydrocarbon fuels from coal.7.2.3 Nuclear Power ships: Nuclear power is particularly suitable for vessels which need to be at sea for long periods without refueling, or for powerful submarine propulsion. Page 9 of 17
  13. 13. Overview of Nuclear Energy In India Sarjeevan Sainbhi (20104006)8.0 COST COMPARISON OF NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS: When we look at the cost analysis of Nuclear power compared to other conventional sources of energy, we can see that the cost to power ratio is similar to that of coal but the savings associated with it are much more compared to that of Coal and gas. India also has abundant supply of nuclear fuel in the form of thorium deposits that are estimated to be around 360000 tonnes and natural uranium deposits of 70000 tonnes. So when we look at the overall benefits of nuclear reactors over coal based boilers and gas fired systems, nuclear is a highly economic option to us. In the future if India has to meet its abundant requirement of power while keeping the economic considerations, then nuclear power is the way to go ahead.9.0 THE NUCLEAR LIABILITY BILL The 123 agreement (Indo-US) in August 2008, ended India’s isolation from global atomic commerce and opened up its foreign market for foreign players, but the system cannot be implemented until India put in place a compensation regime that limited the liability of private companies in case of an accident. This gave birth to the Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Bill 2010, which stipulates the compensation burden on the state-run reactor operator, the liability of the federal government and the responsibility of private suppliers and contractors. The bill is very important for foreign players to enter the Indian market, because if such a bill is not in place, then the compensation claims from a nuclear accident can be enough to bankrupt a private company. Finally the nuclear liability bill was passed in the Lok sabha after a lot of debate on the cap provided. The cap has been finally set to $320 million for the operator and $450 million by the government.10.0 REGULATION AND SAFETY IN NUCLEAR POWER The Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) was established in 1948 under the Atomic Energy Act as a policy body. Then in 1954 the Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) was set up to encompass research, technology development and commercial reactor operation. The current Atomic Energy Act is 1962, and it permits only government-owned enterprises to be involved in nuclear power. The DAE includes NPCIL, Uranium Corporation of India (UCIL, mining and processing), Electronics Corporation of India Ltd (reactor control and instrumentation) and BHAVIN (for setting up fast reactors). The DAE also controls the Heavy Water Board for production of heavy water and the Nuclear Fuel Complex for fuel and component manufacture. The Atomic Energy Regulatory Board (AERB) was formed in 1983 and comes under the AEC but is independent of DAE. It is responsible for the regulation and licensing of all nuclear Page 10 of 17
  14. 14. Overview of Nuclear Energy In India Sarjeevan Sainbhi (20104006) facilities and their safety and carries authority conferred by the Atomic Energy Act for radiation safety and by the Factories Act for industrial safety in nuclear plants. However, it is not an independent statutory authority, and its 1995 report on a safety assessment of DAEs plants and facilities was reportedly shelved by the AEC. In April 2011 the government announced that it would legislate to set up a new independent and autonomous Nuclear Regulatory Authority of India that will subsume the AERB, and that previous safety assessments of Indian plants would be made public. Figure-7 outlines the above discussion. Figure-7 Indian Regulation & Safety in nuclear power11.0 US-INDIA AGREEMENT AND NUCLEAR SUPPLIERS GROUP The 123 agreement (as per the Section 123 of Atomic Energy Act of 1954) allows US to sell nuclear fuel and nuclear technology to India for civilian purposes. The agreement, approved now by the Indian Cabinet, is reported to be in consonant with the Hyde Act passed in 2006. India will get nuclear fuel from America to run the nuclear power reactors (PHWRs), at full capacity. This is in spite of the fact that India is not a signatory to Nuclear non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). India is required to separate nuclear facilities for civilian and military use. India can continue to reprocess spent nuclear fuel from its civilian reactors. However, the spent fuel from the safeguarded reactors will be reprocessed in a separate reprocessing facility under international safeguards. In the event of India testing any nuclear weapons, the supply of nuclear fuel / technology will be terminated by the US. The supplied fuel may have to be returned. US may assist to procure fuel from some other countries of the 35 member Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) for continued operation of the civilian reactors producing commercial power. India gets much needed nuclear power, which is environmental friendly. Page 11 of 17
  15. 15. Overview of Nuclear Energy In India Sarjeevan Sainbhi (20104006)12.0 CHALLENGES HINDERING NUCLEAR GROWTH IN INDIA There a lot of challenges or problems that nuclear power faces, that have hindered its development over the period of time. Some of the major challenges faced by the industry are: 1. Accidents at Nuclear Power Plants: There have been numerous accidents and mistakes at Nuclear Power plants and reprocessing facilities that have made the issue of the safety in the plants one of the major challenges to be tackled in the setting up of any nuclear plants in the country. It is estimated that before the accident at Tarapur, lack of proper maintenance exposed more than 3000 Indian personnel to "very high" and "hazardous" radiation levels. Researchers at the American University calculated at least 124 "hazardous incidents" at nuclear plants in India between 1993 and 1995. 2. Biological Effects of Radiation: The current scientific data suggests that there is no safe minimum, or threshold, for adverse radiation effects on the DNA of biological systems and those, even small doses can produce consequences for the organism. These Issues with the effect of radiations on individuals living close to the plant and working in them is another very big cause of concern. As recently as 2003, there have been accidents involving high radiation exposures to workers in India. 3. Storage and Disposal of High Level Nuclear Reactor Waste: Since the spent nuclear reactor (SNF) fuel is highly radioactive initially it is too dangerous to handle and thus it is very important to shield the radioactivity from humans and the environment. 4. Safety of Nuclear Power Plants: Safety of nuclear power plant installations has also been a point of concern to the nuclear power industry. The Government has come up with regulations and laws to ensure the safety of these nuclear installations. 5. Anti-Protest for Nuclear Power in India: Environmentalists, local farmers and fishermen have been protesting for months over the planned six-reactor nuclear power complex on the plains of Jaitapur, 420km south of Mumbai. If built, it would be one of the worlds largest nuclear power complexes. Protests have escalated in the wake of Japans Fukushima nuclear accidents. During two days of violent rallies in April 2011, a local man was killed and dozens were injured. Page 12 of 17
  16. 16. Overview of Nuclear Energy In India Sarjeevan Sainbhi (20104006)13.0 CONCLUSION The diversification of India’s current energy mix, which is dominated by coal, is necessary if India is to increase its economic growth rate and at the same time constructively contribute towards reducing climate change. Therefore, it becomes necessary for India to reduce its coal and other fossil fuel consumption and consider other alternatives that do not emit as much greenhouse gases as do fossil fuels. At the same time, India needs to make sure that it employs sustainable energy sources which do not jeopardize its energy supply and therefore its economic growth. The country finds itself in a position where it has to constantly negotiate between sustained economic growth and reducing its carbon emission. Therefore, nuclear energy proves to be a viable option as it is a tried and tested technology and India has developed nuclear technology over the years and has a matured nuclear industry. Nuclear energy is therefore a sustainable source of energy and would significantly reduce total carbon emissions from India. In sum, prospects of nuclear energy in India are bright, but that is in the long run. The benefits of the nuclear deal coupled with a mature and well established nuclear sector in India suggests that nuclear energy has the potential to be a major source of electricity in future. In the long term, India will benefit by employing nuclear energy as a source of electricity generation. Increasing environmental pressures will make it difficult for India to continue with the use of fossil fuels at existing levels in the future. While domestic nuclear ore is of low grade, and hence expensive to utilize, the Indo–U.S. Civilian Nuclear Agreement helps India to import nuclear fuel which would reduce fuel costs and hence the cost of nuclear power generation. Page 13 of 17
  17. 17. Overview of Nuclear Energy In India Sarjeevan Sainbhi (20104006)14.0 REFERENCES 1. www.bp.com 2. www.dae.gov.in 3. www.iea.org 4. www.igcar.ernet.in/nuclear/alagh.htm 5. www.indianuclearenergy.net 6. www.mapsofindia.com/maps/india/nuclearpowerplants.htm 7. www.npcil.nic.in 8. www.world-nuclear.org 9. www.wikipedia.org 10. Alternative Energy: Vol.2. Neil Schlager & Jayne Weisblatt. Thomson Gale: Farmington Hill, 2006. 11. Annual Report: Ministry of Power 2010-11 12. IDSA Task Force Report: Development of Nuclear Energy Sector in India, Nov. 2010 13. KPMG: The India Electricity Market Outlook, 2008 14. Nuclear Energy in India: A Comprehensive Report, byTinu Mario Mathew, 2010 15. Nuclear Power in India: A critical History. B. Banerjee, N. Sharma. Rupa Co.: New Delhi, 2008. 16. Nuclear Synergy: Indo-US Strategic cooperation & Beyond. Nalini Kant Jha. Pentagon Press: New Delhi, 2009. 17. Overview of Power Generation, 9-June 2011, Central Electricity Authority, Govt. Of India. Page 14 of 17
  18. 18. Overview of Nuclear Energy In India Sarjeevan Sainbhi (20104006) Annexure- I Table-4 : Nuclear Energy production Estimation SR. NO. Description Model-1 Model-2 Model-3 Model-4 Model-5 Model-6 A PLF 2009-10 (Actual) 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.77 Electricity consumption April 2010-March 2011 (MU) / year [ Refer B 875048.29 875048.29 875048.29 875048.29 875048.29 875048.29 Note 1] Electricity consumption April 2010-March 2011 (MWh) / year [ A C 875048290 875048290 875048290 875048290 875048290 875048290 * 1000] D Uranium found in Andhra-Pradesh (kg) 44000000 44000000 44000000 Total Uranium RAR & Inferred Resource as of 2009 (73000000 + E 106000000 106000000 106000000 33000000) Kg Heat Value of Natural uranium in LWR (normal reactor i.e. BWR, F 500 500 PWR, PHWR) GJ/kg Heat Value of Natural uranium enriched to 3.5%, in LWR (normal G 3900 3900 reactor i.e. BWR, PWR, PHWR) GJ/kg H Heat Value of Natural uranium in FNR 28000 28000 I GJ to MWh conversion factor 0.277777778 0.277777778 0.277777778 0.277777778 0.277777778 0.277777778 J Nuclear power production (MWh/Kg) [ F * I] 138.888889 1083.333334 7777.777784 138.888889 1083.333334 7777.777784 K Actual Nuclear power production (MWh) [ D* J] 6111111116 47666666705 3.42222E+11 14722222234 1.14833E+11 8.24444E+11 L Actual Nuclear power production (MWh) including PLF [ A* K] 4677444448 36484066696 2.61937E+11 11268388898 87893433404 6.3103E+11 Actual Nuclear power production (MWh) including losses @ 10 % [ M 4209700003 32835660026 2.35743E+11 10141550008 79104090063 5.67927E+11 L * 0.9] N No. of years the electricity that can be produced [C / M] 5 38 269 12 90 649 O Annual Growth rate in Demand of Electricity [Refer Note-2] 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 No. of years electricity that can be produced considering growth P 4 17 40 8 26 51 in electricity demand [Refer projection Table-5] Annual growth rate in Nuclear power Capacity MWh [Refer Note- R 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 3] Annual Electricity generation through Nuclear on 2009-10 MWh S 29349650.00 29349650.00 29349650.00 29349650.00 29349650.00 29349650.00 [Refer Note-5] No. of years electricity that can be produced considering growth T 23 39 55 30 46 63 in Nuclear power capacity [Refer projection Table-5] Page 15 of 16
  19. 19. Overview of Nuclear Energy In India Sarjeevan Sainbhi (20104006) Assumption : 1 PLF considered constant to 0.77 Notes : 1 Estimated as follows (Linear Projection only, Seasonality not considered): Cumulative MU from 1st April 2011 to 9 June 2011 i.e. 70 days 167817.48 X - Cumulative MU from 1st April 2011 to 9 June 2011 i.e. 365 days 875048.29 2 Estimated as follows (Linear Projection only, Seasonality not considered): Y - Electricity consumption to double by 2020 i.e. X * 2 = 1750096.58 growth rate =(X / Y)^(1/9) - 1= 0.08 3 Estimated as follows (Linear Projection only, Seasonality not considered): Z - Electricity generation on 9-06-2011 MU 80.41 Annual Electricity generation on 2009-10 MU [ Z * 365] 29349.65 Nuclear power to increase from 4780 MW by 2011 to 64000 MW by 2032, growth rate =(64000 / 4780)^(1/21) - 1= 0.13 4 Annual Electricity generation on 2009-10 MWh = 29349650.00 Description:  Model 1, 2, 3 – Nuclear Energy production Estimation considering 44000 Tonnes of Uranium found in Andrapradesh  Model 4, 5, 6 - Nuclear Energy production Estimation considering Total uranium resource available in india.  For knowing the data sources, refer Para. 14 - References. Page 16 of 17
  20. 20. Overview of Nuclear Energy In India Sarjeevan Sainbhi (20104006) Table-5 Growth rate Projection on consumption of Uranium YEAR… * Model No. * 1 5 9 18 24 27 31 40 41 47 52 56 64Considering electricity Model 1 [M-C] 4209700003 3264647850 -1334543866 consumption growth rate only [C] 875048290 945052153.2 1285733021 1749225581 3496710030 5.549E+09 6.99E+09 9.51E+09 1.901E+10 20530805818 3.258E+10 47870427486 6.5127E+10 1.20546E+11 Model 2 [M-C] 32835660026 31890607873 2.7291E+10 2.1034E+10 - 2556773458 model 3 [M-C] 2.35743E+11 2.34798E+11 2.302E+11 2.2394E+11 2.0035E+11 1.726E+11 1.53E+11 1.192E+11 -9.079E+09 - 29609526437 model 4 [M-C] 10141550008 9196497855 4597306139 - 1659843416 model 5 [M-C] 79104090063 78159037910 7.356E+10 6.7303E+10 4.3712E+10 1.601E+10 - 3.45E+09 model 6 [M-C] 5.67927E+11 5.66982E+11 5.6238E+11 5.5613E+11 5.3253E+11 5.048E+11 4.85E+11 4.514E+11 3.231E+11 3.02574E+11 1.399E+11 - 66510818688 Considering nuclear [R] 29349650.00 33165104.5 54074827.7 88167579.5 264859106 551423881 7.96E+08 1.297E+09 3.897E+09 4403714036 9.168E+09 16892035588 2.7542E+10 73218918464 power generation growth rate only Model 1 [M] 4209700003 4176534899 3994781151 3698436463 2162579345 - 328329847 Model 2 [M-C] 32835660026 32802494922 3.2621E+10 3.2324E+10 3.0789E+10 2.83E+10 2.62E+10 2.181E+10 - 783947136 model 3 [M-C] 2.35743E+11 2.3571E+11 2.3553E+11 2.3523E+11 2.337E+11 2.312E+11 2.29E+11 2.247E+11 2.021E+11 1.9772E+11 1.563E+11 89167545501 - 3405380673 model 4 [M-C] 10141550008 10108384904 9926631156 9630286467 8094429350 5.604E+09 3.48E+09 - 879715442 model 5 [M-C] 79104090063 79070924959 7.8889E+10 7.8593E+10 7.7057E+10 7.457E+10 7.24E+10 6.808E+10 4.548E+10 41080768865 - 334653552 model 6 [M-C] 5.67927E+11 5.67894E+11 5.6771E+11 5.6742E+11 5.6588E+11 5.634E+11 5.61E+11 5.569E+11 5.343E+11 5.29903E+11 4.885E+11 4.21351E+11 3.2878E+11 - 68259451540*- Refer Table-4 for Details. [M, C] details are from serial no. M & C of Table-4.Description: Bold number in the year column indicates exhaust of uranium resource on particular year when projected considering the applicable growth rate. ---End--- Page 17 of 17

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