Eastern European Migration

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Eastern European Migration

  1. 1. Eastern European Migration Benefits and costs for sources and hosts
  2. 2. The Political background <ul><li>The background to recent Eastern European begins with the EU Schengen Agreement in 1985. </li></ul><ul><li>This abolished border controls between EU countries who signed up (the UK did not). </li></ul><ul><li>Schengen enshrines the principle that people are citizens of the EU and can move freely within it. </li></ul>
  3. 3. EU enlargement <ul><li>EU enlargement has increased the ‘pool’ of potential migrants, and this caused some difficulties for the Schengen signatories. Enlargement occurred in 2004 when a large number of countries joined: </li></ul><ul><li>Malta </li></ul><ul><li>Cyprus </li></ul><ul><li>And the ‘Accession 8’ (A8 countries) former eastern bloc countries: </li></ul><ul><li>Estonia </li></ul><ul><li>Latvia </li></ul><ul><li>Lithuania </li></ul><ul><li>Poland </li></ul><ul><li>Slovenia </li></ul><ul><li>Czech Republic </li></ul><ul><li>Slovakia </li></ul><ul><li>Hungary </li></ul><ul><li>These 10 were joined by 2 more former eastern bloc countries in 2007: </li></ul><ul><li>Romania </li></ul><ul><li>Bulgaria </li></ul>Most countries already within the EU chose not to allow free movement of the new EU citizens, into their countries. The exceptions to this were the UK, Ireland and Sweden . As non-Schnegen signatories it should, in theory, be easier for the UK and Ireland to control immigration. Sweden decided migration would be economically beneficial.
  4. 4. The economic push and pull <ul><li>The fears of some EU countries ( the reason they have put off allowing free migration of the A8 ) and the explanation for the mass migration to the UK are illustrated by a graph of average per capita (PPP = purchasing power parity or cost of living adjusted) in the EU 27: </li></ul>
  5. 5. <ul><li>For many A8 migrants, a job in the UK at the minimum wage is above average earnings in their home country. </li></ul><ul><li>Added to this is the fact the labour market in many source countries is not good – as shown by unemployment rates in 2006 (see map)‏ </li></ul>
  6. 6. <ul><li>Those who have migrated are generally: </li></ul><ul><li>Migrants with vocational training or secondary education , some working experience, around 30 years old. </li></ul><ul><li>Young migrants , just finished vocational training or secondary education. Many of them decide to migrate right after they finish their education and have no working experience. Available statistics from the UK shows that more than 80% of all EU8 migrants are between 18 and 34 years old. Migrants between 18 and 24 years form the strongest age group (43% of total migrants) in the UK. </li></ul><ul><li>Young and unmarried migrants with a tertiary education searching to brush up their language skills and attain some working experience abroad. </li></ul><ul><li>Highly-educated specialists with working experience </li></ul>
  7. 8. The geographical pattern of source countries <ul><li>The source of A8 migrants is very uneven – not all countries have contributed equally. </li></ul><ul><li>This is partly a result of their population size, but also variations in wealth and opportunity within the source country. </li></ul><ul><li>As a % Latvians have migrated the most: </li></ul>
  8. 9. <ul><li>In terms of raw numbers, Poles make up the majority of migrants to the UK. </li></ul><ul><li>When dependents are included the figure may approach 1 million at any one time </li></ul>
  9. 10. The geographical pattern in the UK <ul><li>Within the UK, the A8 migrants have settled in a pattern unknown from previous migrations to the UK. </li></ul><ul><li>The extent to which they are distributed across the whole of the UK is new, and then focus on rural areas represents a totally new challenge. </li></ul>
  10. 11. <ul><li>There are significant numbers in London, but also is East Anglia and even the Highlands of Scotland. The ‘top 10’ local authorities for A8 migrants in terms of a % of local population by December 2006 were: </li></ul><ul><li>City of London </li></ul><ul><li>Boston </li></ul><ul><li>Westminster </li></ul><ul><li>Northampton </li></ul><ul><li>South Holland </li></ul><ul><li>Peterborough </li></ul><ul><li>Fenland </li></ul><ul><li>East Cambridgeshire </li></ul><ul><li>Herefordshire </li></ul><ul><li>Dungannon </li></ul>
  11. 12. Source costs & benefits <ul><li>The key benefits to eastern European migrants are financial. The Joseph Rowntree foundation has found that: </li></ul><ul><li>Temporary migrants send about 25% of their earnings home as remittances </li></ul><ul><li>Migrants who plan to settle only send about 8% home. </li></ul><ul><li>For Poland, this amounted to around 6.4 billion Euros in 2006, or 2.5% of total Polish GDP. </li></ul><ul><li>On the downside, average earning in the UK for Poles are about £6 per hour. This compares to £10 for migrants from the EU15 countries. </li></ul><ul><li>There is also a growing problem with worker exploitation as unscrupulous gangs prey on A8 workers. </li></ul>
  12. 13. <ul><li>A significant brain drain is also occurring. </li></ul><ul><li>For some A8 countries, the loss of workforce as migrants is significant as the table shows: </li></ul><ul><li>In Poland, doctors earn an average of £350 </li></ul><ul><li>per month – much lower than in the UK. </li></ul><ul><li>The first 12 months post-Accession saw </li></ul><ul><li>500 Polish doctors migrate to the UK. </li></ul><ul><li>The number ‘on the books’ waiting for </li></ul><ul><li>an opening was over 4000. There are </li></ul><ul><li>150,000 doctors in Poland so a crisis </li></ul><ul><li>is not yet on the cards, but it may develop. </li></ul>
  13. 14. <ul><li>Within Poland, figures for emigration vary hugely – from around 0.6 – 3 million people since 2004. </li></ul><ul><li>Unemployment has fallen, from 18% in 2004, to 14% in 2006 and 10% in 2007. </li></ul><ul><li>This suggests that the economic benefits of migration are strong. </li></ul>
  14. 15. <ul><li>However, longer term prospects may be more bleak as migration reinforces processes of ageing and population decline. </li></ul><ul><li>By 2050 it is likely that the 65+ age group in Poland will increase from 11% to 27% while the 19-44 years working age percentage falls from 38% to 27%. </li></ul><ul><li>Total population is projected to fall from 38 million today to 33-32 million by 2050. </li></ul>
  15. 16. Host costs & benefits <ul><li>The question of costs and benefits for the UK is a difficult one. </li></ul><ul><li>On the one hand, most workers seem to have been absorbed into our economy without any negative effect on unemployment, and possibly with a positive effect on inflation. </li></ul>
  16. 17. <ul><li>However, there is some evidence that low A8 wages are beginning to put downward pressure on wages for low paid UK citizens: </li></ul><ul><li>Immigration, to some extent, fills a gap left be record levels of emigration – although emigrants tend to be older. </li></ul>
  17. 18. <ul><li>Migrants have certainly filled some skills gaps: </li></ul><ul><li>In some parts of the country skills shortages were crippling and this has been solved by an influx of new migrants – a good example is the Highlands of Scotland and the fish processing industry. </li></ul>
  18. 19. <ul><li>Not all of the news is positive however. </li></ul><ul><li>There are some growing tensions as the influx of A8 migrants grows. </li></ul><ul><li>The government recent decided to keep in place restrictions on Romanian and Bulgarian migrants, for fear the numbers could become politically too sensitive: </li></ul>
  19. 20. <ul><li>There are growing concerns about total population. </li></ul><ul><li>Migrants, who tend to be young and fertile, boost population. </li></ul><ul><li>This could be good for the UK as they counter-balance an ageing workforce, however, population could grow to fast for housing and services to cope: </li></ul>
  20. 21. <ul><li>Recently there has been controversy over the number of migrants. </li></ul><ul><li>The public might be broadly willing to accept migration, but not in the scale of migration is seen to be unknown: </li></ul>
  21. 22. <ul><li>Recently the question of costs and benefits has been considered in depth. </li></ul><ul><li>In October 2007 two reports painted very different pictures of post-Accession migration: </li></ul><ul><li>The Regional Consultation on the Impacts of Migration reported that in many areas of the UK social pressures, and pressures on services, were growing. </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.ind.homeoffice.gov.uk/lawandpolicy/migrationimpactsforum/ </li></ul><ul><li>Particular issues highlighted were: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Homelessness: East Midlands and Scotland </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Education: South West, East Midlands, North West </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>GP caseload: Sheffield and East Midlands </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>A&E arrivals: East, Lincolnshire and Southampton </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Tensions: North West, South West and Scotland </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Migrants exploited: Most areas </li></ul></ul>
  22. 23. <ul><li>In addition, crime has been reported as rising in some areas e.g. Cambridgeshire: </li></ul><ul><li>“ Police officers were now dealing with close to 100 languages without having the right skills - a situation which had landed the force with a translation bill of at least £800,000. The force had also seen rises in some crimes which could be directly associated with migration. These included drink-driving involving foreign nationals and the emergence of an &quot;international dimension&quot; to crimes including cannabis production, human trafficking and credit card skimming.” </li></ul><ul><li>A Home Office report “Economic and Fiscal Impact of Immigration” found that the economic impacts of migration were broadly positive. </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/documents/economic-impact-of-immigration?view=Binary </li></ul>
  23. 24. <ul><li>Deflationary pressure </li></ul><ul><li>Skills gaps filled </li></ul><ul><li>Economic turnaround </li></ul><ul><li>Business opportunities (banks, supermarkets) & economic growth </li></ul><ul><li>Multi-culturalism (?)‏ </li></ul><ul><li>Counter-acts ageing </li></ul><ul><li>Remittances </li></ul><ul><li>Higher Wages </li></ul><ul><li>Skills can be taken back </li></ul>BENEFITS <ul><li>Social / cultural tensions </li></ul><ul><li>Political tensions </li></ul><ul><li>Services pressure (housing, NHS)‏ </li></ul><ul><li>Crime </li></ul><ul><li>Population rise </li></ul><ul><li>Loss of workforce </li></ul><ul><li>Brain Drain </li></ul><ul><li>Ageing </li></ul><ul><li>Population decline </li></ul><ul><li>Social / Age imbalance </li></ul><ul><li>Exploitation </li></ul>COSTS HOST (UK)‏ SOURCE (A8)‏ Summary

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