PC (55% Laptop)
Some numbers to orient you
WW Installed Base (2016)
It will take time
estimates range from
1-5M HMDs in
>2 orders of
less vs. smartphones
Biz. models for
content on phones
will not work for VR
(in the short term)
And not all hardware adopted equally
Still not much
of a market Maybe the beginning
of a very big market
Some things that change the curve
Positional tracking + sufﬁcient
fps on mobile
Compelling content w/
distribution not blocked by
1:1 hardware adoption
that improves UGC quality
Forming your view of adoption
ASP matters. Dependencies matter.
Real ASP of Rift/Vive = $600+$1,000 for PC
Who will push/subsidize? Samsung giving away GearVR.
Best experience != largest hardware volume
Volume is 🔑
What experience is “better enough”?
We are very early
API’s still ﬂuid
Better hardware coming
UX metaphors unclear
Be intellectually honest about quality of experience
Survive the adoption period (1/4)
Is it better with VR, or only with VR? Mobile web players?
Can your content be experienced without hardware?
How will it be consumed in shared spaces?
Survive the adoption period (2/4)
Can you sell to motivated buyers at lower volumes?
Breaks piggy bank, buys cardboard
to play 360 cat videos.
Recaptures $B of value in property
discounts to remote buyers.
Survive the adoption period (3/4)
Cash-rich platforms seeking
want to show off new capabilities,
and big publishers not yet
Brands are willing to pay for
“agency” work — pros and cons,
can be a trap
Survive the adoption period (4/4)
Pace of team growth/spend should match milestones
- What’s the case to invest now? Why not in 6-12m?
- What’s the defensible land grab?
- What are your adoption goals? Units —> Users —> $
Leverage “alternative” funding sources (partners, customers) — sometimes
a boon, sometimes a trap
This is tricky. Too early, and you
may run out of $. Too late, and you
may miss some opportunities
Not all gloom and doom —
consumer computing adoption
cycles have been compressing
Apple drove smartphone adoption
— several players focused on VR
2016/2017 pivotal year
Years to 40% Adoption
Source: MIT Tech Review