Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Leslie Fine PM Cluster SFO 2009

437 views

Published on

Published in: Business, Technology
  • Be the first to comment

Leslie Fine PM Cluster SFO 2009

  1. 1. Xpree – Collective Forecasting Opportunities and Challenges for Enterprise Forecasting Systems Contact Leslie Fine leslie@xpree.com +1 650 400 3438
  2. 2. Prediction Markets Can Work… HP Sales (CDA - 1998) • Outperformed stated sales forecast 75% of the time HP Services (BRAIN - 2003) • 50% improvement in profit/revenue predictions HP DRAM (BRAIN - 2006) • 25% improvement in memory cost prediction EA (Xpree – 2008) • 66% increase in game quality accuracy Major Pharma (Xpree – 2008) • Outperformed official company forecast 85% of the time Page 2 | © 2008 Xpree Confidential
  3. 3. There are many stumbling blocks Problems Getting off the Ground • Sufficient population • Actionable results • Confusing mechanisms • Synchronous training (BRAIN) Page 3 | © 2008 Xpree Confidential
  4. 4. There are many stumbling blocks Problems Sustaining Interest • Attrition once the novelty wears off • Most systems focused on feedback to client, not to user • No sense of community, bets go into a black box • Lack of concentrated activity to make it feel exciting Payoffs that don't make sense – shorting and MSRs confuse • • Only the best traders win, what's in it for the rest of us? Page 4 | © 2008 Xpree Confidential
  5. 5. Xpree is listening…. Results accurate even with only moderate participation More information is gathered for each bet placed  Simple interface that is easy to understand and use  Prescheduled system openings and closes as well as forecast rollouts allow the system to  feel active and dynamic More social, but also anonymous  Affinity groups create more interesting social dynamic many levels of spirited competition  Fun and engaging to encourage spontaneous participation  Enhanced comments and forums  Anonymity preserved inside community Enhanced reporting Allows management to quickly assess results  Confidence intervals allow for scenario planning  Page 5 | © 2008 Xpree Confidential
  6. 6. Xpree X2 Screenshot – My Bets Page Page 6 | © 2008 Xpree Confidential

×