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SXSW 2015 - Humans Are Predictable: Exploit It In Eight Charts

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Today, the world is full of data. But insight doesn’t scale with data. In fact, our Simon James, Global Lead of Performance Analytics, can tell you everything you need to know about data analytics in eight charts without referencing "big data" - and yes it does deserve those speech marks. This is all possible because human beings are depressingly predictable in their behaviors.

Published in: Marketing, Data & Analytics
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SXSW 2015 - Humans Are Predictable: Exploit It In Eight Charts

  1. @Si_James_ #8charts
  2. 1815
  3. WHAT WE SHOULD DO VERSUS WHAT WE CAN DO
  4. THE PROBLEM WITH (BIG) DATA* 35  Ze$abytes     2020   Data   Insight**   *  The  only  men7on  of  ‘big  data’  I  promise   **  I  made  this  up  –  but  trust  me,  I  am  a  professional  
  5. PROFIT WISDOM KNOWLEDGE INFORMATION DATA
  6. “THE MORE YOU DO SOMETHING, THE MORE LIKELY YOU ARE TO DO IT AGAIN” #1
  7. DRUGS: 0%   10%   20%   30%   40%   50%   60%   70%   80%   90%   100%   0   1-­‐2   3-­‐5   6-­‐9   Cannabis Ecstasy Cocaine Number of times used Source:  The  Na7onal  Ins7tute  of  Drug  Abuse     Likelihood to take more drugs
  8. AFFAIRS: 0%   10%   20%   30%   40%   50%   60%   70%   80%   90%   100%   0   1   2   3   Number of affairs Likelihood to have an(other) affair Source:  Psychology  Today    
  9. TODAY: THE END OF “BREAK-UP SEASON” TODAY Source:  amie  /  visual.ly  
  10. 0%   10%   20%   30%   40%   50%   60%   70%   80%   0   1  -­‐  2   3  -­‐  6   7  -­‐  10   11  -­‐  14   15  or  more   Previous convictions One year proven re-offending rate Source:    Gov.uk   RECIDIVISM
  11. Number of website visits Likelihood to return again REPEAT WEB VISITS 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 UK-Football Club US-Retailer US-Automotive US-Financial Services UK-Retailer
  12. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Number of purchases Likelihood to repeat purchase REPEAT BUYING
  13. 0%   10%   20%   30%   40%   50%   60%   70%   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   UK-­‐Football  Club   US-­‐Retailer   US-­‐Automo7ve   US-­‐Financial  Services   UK-­‐Retailer   Number of website visits Percentage of visitors MOST PEOPLE DO THINGS ONCE
  14. WHY IS THE WORLD FULL OF LOYALTY PROGRAMS?
  15. Marriott Rewards®, our award-winning guest loyalty program, and The Ritz-Carlton Rewards® program, now in its fourth year, together surpassed 45 million members, accounting for more than half of our room nights worldwide. Our members are committed to us. Over the past seven years, the most active 1 percent of Marriott’s customers accounted for more than 30 percent of room nights. Source:  Marrio$  Interna7onal  Inc.  Annual  Report  2013  
  16. HIGHER FREQUENCY OF PURCHASE PER CUSTOMER HIGHER PROPORTION OF REPEAT PURCHASERS LOWER DEFECTION INCREASED MARKET SHARE
  17. “THE LONGER YOU LEAVE IT, THE LESS LIKELY IT WILL EVER HAPPEN” #2
  18. 0%   5%   10%   15%   20%   25%   30   60   90   120   150   180   210   Days into one year follow up period One year proven re-offending rate RECIDIVISM
  19. 0%   10%   20%   30%   40%   50%   60%   70%   80%   90%   UK  Football   US  Retail   US  Auto   UKRetail   Days since last visit Repurchase Likelihood REPEAT VISIT LIKELIHOOD
  20. “LOTS OF CUSTOMERS ARE UNPROFITABLE” #3
  21. VILFREDO PARETO
  22. 0%   10%   20%   30%   40%   50%   60%   70%   80%   90%   100%   0%   10%   20%   30%   40%   50%   60%   70%   80%   90%   100%   % of customers % of revenue A TRADITIONAL PARETO
  23. 0%   20%   40%   60%   80%   100%   120%   140%   0%   10%   20%   30%   40%   50%   60%   70%   80%   90%   100%   A REALISTIC PARETO % of revenue % of customers
  24. “SEGMENTATION IS REDUNDANT IN DIGITAL” NOBODY IS A SEGMENT #4
  25. MY COLLEAGUE NICK GEEK PHOTO OBVIOUSLY STOLEN MEET NICK
  26. MASSIVE WHEY PROTEIN CLOSE UP HIS DESK
  27. SEMI-PRO IMAGE FROM FILM HEADBAND INC.SEMI-PRO
  28. IMAGE – HEALTHY FOOD SUPERFOODS, YUM
  29. IMAGE – INSTANT FOOD NUCLEAR DINNER
  30. IMAGE 3 – BACON SANDWICH MMM, BACON
  31. Mike  works  as  a  graphic  designer  in  a  small   agency  and  one  day  wants  to  run  his  own   agency.     He’s  got  an  iPhone  and  a  Vodafone  360  H1  by   Samsung  phone,  one  personal  and  one  for   work.  He  follows  friends  and  key  people  in  the   design  industry  via  Twi$er,  blogs,  and  RSS   feeds.  He  uses  his  iPhone  for  work  emails  and   his  H1  for  Facebook.     He  uses  Twi9er  to  post  updates  about  what   he’s  up  to  with  his  project  work  as  well  as   using  it  as  a  tool  to  find  out  what  people  are   up  to  and  invite  them  to  events.  He  uses   Facebook  to  share  personal  photos  and  video   and  keeps  a  Tumblr  blog  to  post  interes7ng   things  he  discovers  and  share  them  with  his   friends  and  followers.   Zoe  is  studying  a  Masters  in  Interna@onal   Development,  unsure  of  what  the  future  lies   ahead  of  her.     She  is  constantly  using  the  Facebook  app  on   her  Vodafone  360  M1  by  Samsung  phone  as   well  as  on  her  PC  to  upload  and  tag  photos   and  videos  from  places  she’s  been  to  with   her  friends,  as  well  as  to  find  out  and   comment  on  who’s  been  where  at  which  club   nights  and  par7es.     She  regularly  texts  and  messages  her  friends   to  find  out  if  they’ve  heard  about  a  new  pop-­‐ up  shop  she  heard  about  via  a  flyer,  or  one-­‐ off  warehouse  party  started  by  friends  of   friends.   Geoff  works  as  an  senior  architect  in  a  large   prac7ce  and  has  a    wife  and  a  young  girl  and  6-­‐ month  baby  boy.  He  thinks  the  @me  is  right  to   start  looking  for  a  bigger  home  for  his  family.     Geoff  uses  his  Vodafone  360  H1  to  take  photos   and  videos  of  prospec7ve  sites  he  visits.  He   purchased  the  H1  because  of  its  ability  to  check   email,  surf  the  web,  use  apps,  and  take  photos   and  video.     He  loves  the  built-­‐in  camera  and  also  uses  this   phone  on  holiday  to  take  snaps  of  the  family  as  it   fits  in  his  pocket  and  doesn’t  want  to  carry  a   large  SLR  around  with  him.  He  likes  to  upload  his   photos  and  video  to  Flickr  and  share  them  with   his  family  and  friends.  He  also  creates  photo   books  from  his  holiday  snaps  to  give  as  gibs  to   his  parents.   Techie   Socialite   Cost-­‐ conscious   MIKE   ZOE   GEOFF  25-­‐34  single  male   living  with  friends   18-­‐33  single  female   living  with  friends   35-­‐49  married  male   with  young  kids  
  32. #1 THE MORE YOU DO SOMETHING = F #2 THE LONGER IT TAKES = R #3 UNPROFITABLE CUSTOMERS = V
  33. #   Ref   Name   Descrip@on   Strategy   Which  means   1   HHH   High  Recency,  High   Frequency,  High  Value   Your  best  customers   Milk   Protect   2   HHL   High  Recency,  High   Frequency,  Low  Value   Li$le  and  oben   Addict   Cross  sell   3   HLH   High  Recency,  Low   Frequency,  High  Value   Occasional  bingers   Upsell   Up  sell   4   HLL   High  Recency,  Low   Frequency,  Low  Value   Noobs   School   Nurture   5   LHH   Low  Recency,  High   Frequency,  High  Value   Former  best  customers   Oh  shit   Win  back   6   LHL   Low  Recency,  High   Frequency,  Low  Value   Former  li$le  and  oben   Oh  well   Low  priority   7   LLH   Low  Recency,  Low   Frequency,  High  Value   Former  bingers   Whatever   Low  priority   8   LLL   Low  Recency,  Low   Frequency,  Low  Value   Former  noobs   Trash   Ignore  
  34. “NEVER TRUST A RATIO” #5
  35. NPS These  rela7ve  Net  Promoter  Scores  were  then  correlated  with  organic   growth  measures.  In  most  industries,  NPS  explained  roughly  20%  to   60%  of  the  varia7on  in  organic  growth  rates  among  compe7tors.   http://www.bain.com/publications/articles/the-economics-of-loyalty.aspx
  36. ROI = NET REVENUE COST
  37. “ALGORITHMS HAVE NO ETHICS” #6
  38. FACEBOOK YEAR IN REVIEW
  39. THE RANDOM DARKNET SHOPPER
  40. IMAGE EU MAYBE CHART OF INSURANCE CLAIMS BY GENDER
  41. WHATSAPP EVIDENCE USED TO DIVORCE NEARLY HALF OF ITALIAN ADULTERERS
  42. GIAN ETTORE GASSANI, ITALIAN ASSOCIATION OF MATRIMONIAL LAWYERS “WE HAVE SEEN ADULTERERS USING THE SERVICE TO MAINTAIN THREE OR FOUR RELATIONSHIPS – IT’S LIKE DYNAMITE”
  43. “THE CONSEQUENCE OF GETTING IT WRONG” #7
  44. MIND THE GAP
  45. WHO IS THE MOST FAMOUS SPORTS PERSON TO WRONGLY FAIL A DRUGS TEST?
  46. DIANE MODAHL
  47. FOR EVERY 5 LIVES SAVED, 17 WILL HAVE TREATMENT THAT DON’T NEED IT Source: Cancer Research UK
  48. PROBLEM WITH MARKETING: LACK OF CONSEQUENCES
  49. “POLICING THE POLICE” #8
  50. STOP AND SEARCH IMAGE UK POLICE - ARMED
  51. SECTION 60 STOP AND SEARCH WHITE PEOPLE: 87% OF POPULATION 41% OF SEARCHES 59% OF ARRESTS
  52. HEADLINE GCHQ SPYING ON EMAILS NSA SAME
  53. MISSING TEENAGERS GOING TO SYRIA HEADLINES – HOW?
  54. THINGS WE KNOW THINGS WE KNOW ARE WRONG THINGS WE SHOULDN’T KNOW THINGS WE SHOULD KNOW
  55. THANK YOU @Si_James_ #8charts

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