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Mac Klingler: 2013 Sandia National Laboratoies Wind Plant Reliability Workshop

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Reliability by Design

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Mac Klingler: 2013 Sandia National Laboratoies Wind Plant Reliability Workshop

  1. 1. Reliability by Design Mac Klingler 13 August 2013 © M. G. Klingler, Ltd. 20131
  2. 2. Reliability by Design  Designed-in Reliability  How do we structure a design program to achieve the best possible outcome?  OEM Issues and Action  Field Service Reliability  How should owners analyze data?  What should the reliability strategy be? 13 August 2013 Klin© M. G. Klingler, Ltd. 2013 2
  3. 3. Reliability by Design  Business Imperative Often Trumps Good Engineering Judgment  Be Careful What You Ask of People  If you ask them to go faster they will  If you ask them to do it cheaper they will  But….You won’t like the result  Once Built a Prototype Resists Concept Change  Reliability by Necessity takes a back seat to Performance, Life and Cost 13 August 2013 Klin© M. G. Klingler, Ltd. 2013 3
  4. 4. Wind Turbine Evolution  Machines increased an ORDER OF MAGNITUDE in output in about a decade  No practical field feedback of RELIABILTIY or LIFE before the next iteration  Obvious Engineering Conclusion?  “We did everything right” 13 August 2013 Klin© M. G. Klingler, Ltd. 2013 4
  5. 5. Definition of Reliability Broad Definition of Reliability: Reliability is a science aimed at predicting, analyzing, preventing, and mitigating failures over time. Narrow Definition of Reliability: Reliability is the probability that a device will operate successfully for a specified period of time and under specified conditions when used in the manner and for the purpose intended. Simple Definition of Reliability: Conformance to quality standards over many increments of time FOUR KEY PARAMETERS THAT GOVERN RELIABILITY: 1. Customer Expectations 2. Intended Function 3. Specified Life 4. Specified Operating Conditions
  6. 6. Bathtub Curve Life Periods Rate of Occurrence of Failure Design Life GoalFPM LIFE Goal % Of MDP Goal FPM WAR Goal
  7. 7. Decompose the Problem 13 August 2013 M. G. KlingleKlin© M. G. Klingler, Ltd. 2013 r, Ltd. 2013 7 Component E-Build Part & Tooling Release Architecture Performance Component E-Build Part & Tooling Release Verification General SpecGeneral Spec Product Product Verification Machine Systems Machine systems Verification Manufacturing & Durability Customer use Validation Customer needs Requirements Capture Allocation
  8. 8. Reliability by Design  Five Basic Design Project Documents  General Specification  Defines WHAT the Design Does, not HOW  Specific by Function  Defines Acceptance Criteria-How do I know when I’m done  Bill of Material-Line by Line  Cost Spreadsheet-by increasing detail  Weight Spreadsheet-by increasing detail  Reliability Spreadsheet-by increasing detail 13 August 2013 M. GKlin© M. G. Klingler, Ltd. 2013 . Klingler, Ltd. 2013 8
  9. 9.  Inherent Reliability  Planning Tool in Specification Stage  Before Design is Finalized  Reasonably attained by Mature System  The Best a Machine can be under the current strategy  Can the proposed design meet the objectives?  Initial Reliability  Predicted/Estimated reliability at the beginning of System development, prior to hardware testing  Where should we apply our efforts?  Basis for Test Plan Reliability Modeling © M. G. Klingler, Ltd. 2013
  10. 10. © M. G. Klingler, Ltd. 2013
  11. 11. Decompose the Problem 13 August 2013 M. G. KlingleKlin© M. G. Klingler, Ltd. 2013 r, Ltd. 2013 11 Component E-Build Part & Tooling Release Architecture Performance Component E-Build Part & Tooling Release Verification General SpecGeneral Spec Product Product Verification Machine Systems Machine systems Verification Manufacturing & Durability Customer use Validation Customer needs Requirements Capture Allocation
  12. 12. Reliability by Design  FMEA as the Primary Reliability Tool  Teams of Diverse Expertise  Most “Experienced” Grey Beards  Not too much emotional ownership of the design  These are the people who call the baby ugly  Identify and Rank (RPN’s) not just probable but all POSSIBLE Failure Modes  DO SOMETHING TO RESOLVE EVERY ISSUE  Ideas have consequences but only if you do something about them 13 August 2013 Klin© M. G. Klingler, Ltd. 2013 12
  13. 13. Decompose the Problem 13 August 2013 M. G. KlingleKlin© M. G. Klingler, Ltd. 2013 r, Ltd. 2013 13 Component E-Build Part & Tooling Release Architecture Performance Component E-Build Part & Tooling Release Verification General SpecGeneral Spec Product Product Verification Machine Systems Machine systems Verification Manufacturing & Durability Customer use Validation Customer needs Requirements Capture Allocation
  14. 14. Reliability by Design  Verification “Contract” Document  What Methods Will Be Used to Verify the Acceptance Criteria of the Design ?  Modeling & Simulation-Primary Performance Tool  Analysis-Primary Life Tools  Component Test-Verification of Modeling  Prototype Test-Primarily Performance Verification and Certification 13 August 2013 M. GKlin© M. G. Klingler, Ltd. 2013 . Klingler, Ltd. 2013 14
  15. 15. Reliability by Design  How Will We Validate the Specification ?  Does the Spec meet customer expectations?  How will you validate your spec?  How will you validate your hardware?  Does IEC Code adequately express customer need?  Does Certification serve the customer? 13 August 2013 M. GKlin© M. G. Klingler, Ltd. 2013 . Klingler, Ltd. 2013 15
  16. 16. Reliability is Part of Design Include time for reliability activities in the program plan/schedule  The sooner they occur, the more benefit they will have Address ALL failures uncovered during development  There are NO fluke failures  Never assume they will get fixed later 13 August 2013 Klin© M. G. Klingler, Ltd. 2013 16
  17. 17. Field Service Reliability  Keep good records  Discipline field techs to record failed parts  Teach Root Cause Analysis  Join Industry Databases  Compare to Industry Norms  Are your failures typical  Segregate by Make & Model 13 August 2013 Klin© M. G. Klingler, Ltd. 2013 17
  18. 18. Field Service Reliability  Address FREQUENCY of FAILURE in preference to just high cost or high downtime failures  High Frequency Failures effect the most machines and give the biggest payback for your efforts  Try to replace failed parts with BETTER, Longer Life parts 13 August 2013 Klin© M. G. Klingler, Ltd. 2013 18
  19. 19. Conclusions  Build a comprehensive General Spec  Function  Cost  Weight  Inherent Reliability Model as a Base  Make RIGOROUS FMEA’s your primary Reliability Tool  Prioritize Field Failures by Frequency-Total Fleet Downtime 13 August 2013 Klin© M. G. Klingler, Ltd. 2013 19

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