Predicting Cannes Lions - Be On and Realeyes - WARC Advertising Research 2013

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Please see the full video of the study presentation here: https://vimeo.com/75477600

- Using facial coding to measure creative excellence
- What emotional patterns have been winning the hearts and minds of the jury in the last three years?
- Can we predict Cannes Lions winners going forward?
- How can we use this every day to make better decisions in content creation and media buying?

Mihkel Jäätma - Managing Director, Realeyes
Sander Saar - Product Manager, AOL

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  • Inefficient in ROIWHY All working on media sideShould we look at creative?Do not know the impact of creative WHY
  • In addition to IPA, also Cannes
  • Entered > Shortlisted > Medals > Golds each year visually and talk about all the different juries at those stages briefly?Lots of numbers and methodology for cannes LionsCarefully constructed creative selectionThere is no way to measure creative effectively WHY
  • DEMO
  • Add bubbles around the graph:Avg, Max, Min% ofCohortsSmoothing settingsTrendsEventsHead poseGesturesBy AgeBy Gender
  • Picked from distinctions between three key groupsShortlisted vs Not ShortlistedMedal vs RestGold vs RestThe point is to show which groups were compared to identify strongest drivers of performance.
  • Build them in one by one on click in the following order:Make Women Happy In The EndDon't Drop The GameDisgust And RecoverUse Sadness EarlyDon’t Start With ConfusionMake Women Excited In The EndGrow The TrendTime The Peaks RightArrange all the bubbles around the golden
  • Maybe even without the sceen, just lines in full, you call.
  • Link: http://delivery.realeyesit.com/SBS/Compare?items[0].studyId=656&items[0].elementId=3539&measures=35&measures=122
  • Link: http://delivery.realeyesit.com/SBS/Compare?items[0].studyId=640&items[0].elementId=3296&measures=35&measures=64
  • Link: http://delivery.realeyesit.com/SBS/Compare?items[0].studyId=656&items[0].elementId=3436&measures=35&measures=119
  • Link: http://delivery.realeyesit.com/SBS/Compare?items[0].studyId=636&items[0].elementId=3015&measures=35&measures=63
  • Link: http://delivery.realeyesit.com/SBS/Compare?items[0].studyId=640&items[0].elementId=3283&measures=35&measures=109
  • LARGER
  • Mihkel will send slides 19-32 tonight.
  • Mihkel will send slides 19-32 tonight.
  • Future improvementsMore dataMore meta-variables Match audience with videos Segment by genre Session level variables
  • Build them in one by one on click in the following order:Make Women Happy In The EndDon't Drop The GameDisgust And RecoverUse Sadness EarlyDon’t Start With ConfusionMake Women Excited In The EndGrow The TrendTime The Peaks RightArrange all the bubbles around the golden
  • Build them in one by one on click in the following order:Make Women Happy In The EndDon't Drop The GameDisgust And RecoverUse Sadness EarlyDon’t Start With ConfusionMake Women Excited In The EndGrow The TrendTime The Peaks RightArrange all the bubbles around the golden
  • 5 countries 3 ads in 1 hour – no time for such depth, need simpler
  • Data from LG report
  • Emotionally stronger ads get3x higher average view to end %8x higher click through rate20x better in converting views into social actions100x quicker in attracting viewers.Source: Be On and Realeyes research based on 400 videos study, 2013
  • … imagine if 15 seconds into watching the ad we can already tell what the brand lift and purchase intent of the viewing will be without asking a single question
  • Understand emotions through an Impact Score
  • Predicting Cannes Lions - Be On and Realeyes - WARC Advertising Research 2013

    1. 1. Predicting Cannes Lions 2005 Luca Bruno, 2013 Michael Sohn - AP WARC Advertising Research 2013
    2. 2. Creative Media ROI+ = Challenge ? ✓ !
    3. 3. Source: Gunn Report 2000-2008, IPA Les Binet & Peter Field, Marketing in the Era of Accountability, 2007 Emotional advertising campaigns are more effective and more profitable than rational campaigns - even in 'rational' categories… “ ” 11x more efficient in market share growth The Gunn Report
    4. 4. Internet film chosen category Comprehensive judging Submission > Shortlist > Medals > Winners Since 1956 Benchmark for excellence in creative 36,000 entries 92 countries 15 categories
    5. 5. Emotions and Cannes Lions?
    6. 6. 1800s Darwin The Expression of Emotions in Man and Animals
    7. 7. 1960s ! Ekman Facial Action Coding System (FACS)
    8. 8. 2010s1800s 1960s Coding Automated Facial Coding Emotions
    9. 9. Demo
    10. 10. Cannes Study 11k people 15m+ frames Entered 96 Shortlisted 72 Bronze 24 Gold 30 Silver 24 246 videos tested 35k+ viewings
    11. 11. Study Design 200 people per video 7 emotion detectors 3-4 videos in test cell 10 survey questions 3-4 week turnaround
    12. 12. 9000+ variables Volkswagen Force 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 -0.2 -0.4 Sessions Time (0.1 sec) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Avg, Max, Min Smoothing settings % of Cohorts Trends Events Cont. Discrete Gestures By age By gender
    13. 13. Gold vs Rest Identifying variables Shortlisted vs Not Shortlisted Medal vs Rest
    14. 14. Strongest Variables Don’t drop the game Use sadness early Make women happy at the end Disgust and recover Make women excited at the end Don’t start with confusion Time the peaks right Grow the trend
    15. 15. Make women happy at the end Female Male 0:05 0:10 0:15 0:20 0:25 0:30 0:35 Peak in last third (32%) of the video SHORTLIST
    16. 16. Don’t drop the game Happy 0:05 0:10 0:15 0:20 0:25 NOTHING Avoid low happiness after first third of the video
    17. 17. Disgust and recover Disgusted 0:10 0:20 0:30 0:40 0:50 1:00 1:10 1:20 The bigger the range of disgust the better GOLD
    18. 18. Use sadness early Sad 0:05 0:10 0:15 0:20 0:25 GOLD Sadness at the beginning is good if it resolves in the end
    19. 19. Don’t start with confusion 0:05 0:10 0:15 0:20 0:25 Confused NOTHING Don't confuse people in the first third of the video
    20. 20. Leave women excited at the end 0:05 0:10 0:15 0:20 0:25 Female Male BRONZE The higher the engagement in 70-85% of the video the better
    21. 21. Grow the trend 0.14 0.13 0.12 0.11 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Bronze/Silver Gold Shortlisted Nothing Relative time Happy aggregated trendlines Steeper slope = Better outcome
    22. 22. Time the peaks right GOLDMEDALNOTHING SHORTLIST End 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 Start 0.2 Max Happy Min Happy
    23. 23. Don’t drop the game Use sadness early Make women happy at the end Disgust and recover Make women excited at the end Don’t start with confusion Time the peaks right Grow the trend Modelling Cannes We looked at the 8 strongest rules. Now let’s expand that set to 500
    24. 24. Importance of different emotions Positives are more important in predicting shortlists Negative emotions are necessary to predict creative excellence GOLDMEDAL SHORTLIST 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0 Sad Scared Confused Surprised Happy Neutral
    25. 25. 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.75 0.66 0.63 Can we predict Cannes in future? YES shortlist with 75% accuracy! In the future, medals will need more data to get a solid prediction model AUC GOLDMEDAL SHORTLIST
    26. 26. Strongest Variables Don’t drop the game Use sadness early Make women happy at the end Disgust and recover Make women excited at the end Don’t start with confusion Time the peaks right Grow the trend
    27. 27. Strongest Variables Don’t drop the game Use sadness early Make women happy at the end Disgust and recover Make women excited at the end Don’t start with confusion Time the peaks right Grow the trend
    28. 28. Attraction Hook in 8 seconds Retention Keep the audience Impact Kahneman’s Peak-End Engagement Connect via emotions EmotionAll®
    29. 29. Confusion is dominant emotion for first 45 secs, lowering attraction Happiness spikes and dominates throughout Happiness drops, but video ends with peak, leaving viewers with strong impact Minimal negative emotions throughout
    30. 30. This video has very good overall performance. Better than 95% of videos. So Real it’s Scary Emotional Impact
    31. 31. Male 79.5% Female 79.4% Emotional Impact Age Income CountriesCompetitor In-depth analysis
    32. 32. Conclusions Confusion in the first 45 seconds lowers attraction. Happiness spikes and dominates throughout. Top 5% Compared with video A, LG leaves viewers with a higher impact. A B • 18-34 • Single, divorced, separated. • Low or very low income. ~
    33. 33. Get attention with a strong spike of surprise and happiness in the first eight seconds. Avoid confusion. Prevent drops and end with a spike for the strongest impact. Ending with an engagement spike benefits the syndication strategy of publishers with higher play-to-end rates. Syndicate to relevant audiences with the highest engagement. Learning € Activate the video across UK and US audiences
    34. 34. 15” to 5’ content length 20+ categories EmotionAll® 1,000+ videos tested 30+ countries
    35. 35. Consumers love emotional content... 3xhigher average view to end % 8xhigher click through rate 20xbetter in converting views into social actions 100xQuicker in attracting viewers Source: Be On research
    36. 36. 8%increase in Brand Recommendation 7% increase in Purchase Intent 14%increase in Brand Favourability ...and it also creates ROI
    37. 37. Creative Attraction Retention Engagement Impact Media Syndication Optimisation Sharing ROI Brand Favourability Purchase Intent Brand Awareness + = Create Syndicate Measure Impact Model

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