Predicting Cannes Lions - Be On and Realeyes - WARC Advertising Research 2013

1. Predicting Cannes Lions 2005 Luca Bruno, 2013 Michael Sohn - AP WARC Advertising Research 2013

2. Creative Media ROI+ = Challenge ? ✓ !

3. Source: Gunn Report 2000-2008, IPA Les Binet & Peter Field, Marketing in the Era of Accountability, 2007 Emotional advertising campaigns are more effective and more profitable than rational campaigns - even in 'rational' categories… “ ” 11x more efficient in market share growth The Gunn Report

4. Internet film chosen category Comprehensive judging Submission > Shortlist > Medals > Winners Since 1956 Benchmark for excellence in creative 36,000 entries 92 countries 15 categories

5. Emotions and Cannes Lions?

6. 1800s Darwin The Expression of Emotions in Man and Animals

7. 1960s ! Ekman Facial Action Coding System (FACS)

8. 2010s1800s 1960s Coding Automated Facial Coding Emotions

9. Demo

10. Cannes Study 11k people 15m+ frames Entered 96 Shortlisted 72 Bronze 24 Gold 30 Silver 24 246 videos tested 35k+ viewings

11. Study Design 200 people per video 7 emotion detectors 3-4 videos in test cell 10 survey questions 3-4 week turnaround

12. 9000+ variables Volkswagen Force 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 -0.2 -0.4 Sessions Time (0.1 sec) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Avg, Max, Min Smoothing settings % of Cohorts Trends Events Cont. Discrete Gestures By age By gender

13. Gold vs Rest Identifying variables Shortlisted vs Not Shortlisted Medal vs Rest

14. Strongest Variables Don’t drop the game Use sadness early Make women happy at the end Disgust and recover Make women excited at the end Don’t start with confusion Time the peaks right Grow the trend

15. Make women happy at the end Female Male 0:05 0:10 0:15 0:20 0:25 0:30 0:35 Peak in last third (32%) of the video SHORTLIST

16. Don’t drop the game Happy 0:05 0:10 0:15 0:20 0:25 NOTHING Avoid low happiness after first third of the video

17. Disgust and recover Disgusted 0:10 0:20 0:30 0:40 0:50 1:00 1:10 1:20 The bigger the range of disgust the better GOLD

18. Use sadness early Sad 0:05 0:10 0:15 0:20 0:25 GOLD Sadness at the beginning is good if it resolves in the end

19. Don’t start with confusion 0:05 0:10 0:15 0:20 0:25 Confused NOTHING Don't confuse people in the first third of the video

20. Leave women excited at the end 0:05 0:10 0:15 0:20 0:25 Female Male BRONZE The higher the engagement in 70-85% of the video the better

21. Grow the trend 0.14 0.13 0.12 0.11 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Bronze/Silver Gold Shortlisted Nothing Relative time Happy aggregated trendlines Steeper slope = Better outcome

22. Time the peaks right GOLDMEDALNOTHING SHORTLIST End 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 Start 0.2 Max Happy Min Happy

23. Don’t drop the game Use sadness early Make women happy at the end Disgust and recover Make women excited at the end Don’t start with confusion Time the peaks right Grow the trend Modelling Cannes We looked at the 8 strongest rules. Now let’s expand that set to 500

24. Importance of different emotions Positives are more important in predicting shortlists Negative emotions are necessary to predict creative excellence GOLDMEDAL SHORTLIST 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0 Sad Scared Confused Surprised Happy Neutral

25. 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.75 0.66 0.63 Can we predict Cannes in future? YES shortlist with 75% accuracy! In the future, medals will need more data to get a solid prediction model AUC GOLDMEDAL SHORTLIST

28. Attraction Hook in 8 seconds Retention Keep the audience Impact Kahneman’s Peak-End Engagement Connect via emotions EmotionAll®

29. Confusion is dominant emotion for first 45 secs, lowering attraction Happiness spikes and dominates throughout Happiness drops, but video ends with peak, leaving viewers with strong impact Minimal negative emotions throughout

30. This video has very good overall performance. Better than 95% of videos. So Real it’s Scary Emotional Impact

31. Male 79.5% Female 79.4% Emotional Impact Age Income CountriesCompetitor In-depth analysis

32. Conclusions Confusion in the first 45 seconds lowers attraction. Happiness spikes and dominates throughout. Top 5% Compared with video A, LG leaves viewers with a higher impact. A B • 18-34 • Single, divorced, separated. • Low or very low income. ~

33. Get attention with a strong spike of surprise and happiness in the first eight seconds. Avoid confusion. Prevent drops and end with a spike for the strongest impact. Ending with an engagement spike benefits the syndication strategy of publishers with higher play-to-end rates. Syndicate to relevant audiences with the highest engagement. Learning € Activate the video across UK and US audiences

34. 15” to 5’ content length 20+ categories EmotionAll® 1,000+ videos tested 30+ countries

35. Consumers love emotional content... 3xhigher average view to end % 8xhigher click through rate 20xbetter in converting views into social actions 100xQuicker in attracting viewers Source: Be On research

36. 8%increase in Brand Recommendation 7% increase in Purchase Intent 14%increase in Brand Favourability ...and it also creates ROI

37. Creative Attraction Retention Engagement Impact Media Syndication Optimisation Sharing ROI Brand Favourability Purchase Intent Brand Awareness + = Create Syndicate Measure Impact Model

Predicting Cannes Lions - Be On and Realeyes - WARC Advertising Research 2013

Sander Saar

Predicting Cannes Lions - Be On and Realeyes - WARC Advertising Research 2013