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Predicting Cannes Lions
2005 Luca Bruno, 2013 Michael Sohn - AP
WARC Advertising Research 2013
Creative Media ROI+ =
Challenge
? ✓ !
Source: Gunn Report 2000-2008, IPA
Les Binet & Peter Field,
Marketing in the Era of
Accountability, 2007
Emotional advertising
campaigns are more
effective and more
profitable than rational
campaigns - even in
'rational' categories…
“
”
11x
more efficient
in market share
growth
The Gunn Report
Internet film
chosen category
Comprehensive
judging
Submission > Shortlist >
Medals > Winners
Since 1956
Benchmark for
excellence in creative
36,000 entries
92 countries
15 categories
Emotions and
Cannes Lions?
1800s
Darwin
The Expression
of Emotions in
Man and
Animals
1960s
!
Ekman
Facial Action
Coding System
(FACS)
2010s1800s 1960s
Coding
Automated
Facial
Coding
Emotions
Demo
Cannes Study
11k
people
15m+
frames
Entered 96
Shortlisted 72
Bronze 24
Gold 30
Silver 24
246
videos tested
35k+
viewings
Study Design
200
people per
video
7
emotion
detectors
3-4
videos in
test cell
10
survey
questions
3-4
week
turnaround
9000+ variables
Volkswagen Force
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4
Sessions
Time (0.1 sec)
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Avg, Max,
Min
Smoothing
settings
% of
Cohorts
Trends Events
Cont.
Discrete
Gestures
By age
By gender
Gold
vs
Rest
Identifying variables
Shortlisted
vs
Not Shortlisted
Medal
vs
Rest
Strongest Variables
Don’t drop
the game
Use
sadness
early
Make
women
happy at
the end
Disgust
and
recover
Make
women
excited at
the end Don’t start
with
confusion
Time the
peaks right
Grow the
trend
Make women happy at the end
Female
Male
0:05 0:10 0:15 0:20 0:25 0:30 0:35
Peak in
last third
(32%) of
the video
SHORTLIST
Don’t drop the game
Happy
0:05 0:10 0:15 0:20 0:25
NOTHING
Avoid low
happiness after
first third of
the video
Disgust and recover
Disgusted
0:10 0:20 0:30 0:40 0:50 1:00 1:10 1:20
The bigger
the range of
disgust the
better
GOLD
Use sadness early
Sad
0:05 0:10 0:15 0:20 0:25
GOLD
Sadness at the
beginning is good
if it resolves in
the end
Don’t start with confusion
0:05 0:10 0:15 0:20 0:25
Confused
NOTHING
Don't confuse
people in the
first third of
the video
Leave women excited at the end
0:05 0:10 0:15 0:20 0:25
Female
Male
BRONZE
The higher the
engagement in
70-85% of the
video the better
Grow the trend
0.14
0.13
0.12
0.11
0.10
0.09
0.08
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Bronze/Silver
Gold
Shortlisted
Nothing
Relative time
Happy aggregated trendlines
Steeper slope
=
Better outcome
Time the peaks right
GOLDMEDALNOTHING
SHORTLIST
End 0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
Start 0.2
Max Happy
Min Happy
Don’t drop
the game
Use
sadness
early
Make
women
happy at
the end
Disgust
and
recover
Make
women
excited at
the end Don’t start
with
confusion
Time the
peaks right
Grow the
trend
Modelling Cannes
We looked at the
8 strongest rules.
Now let’s expand
that set to 500
Importance of different emotions
Positives are
more important
in predicting
shortlists
Negative emotions
are necessary to
predict creative
excellence GOLDMEDAL
SHORTLIST
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0
Sad
Scared
Confused
Surprised
Happy
Neutral
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.75
0.66
0.63
Can we predict Cannes in future?
YES
shortlist with
75% accuracy!
In the future,
medals will need
more data to get
a solid prediction
model
AUC
GOLDMEDAL
SHORTLIST
Strongest Variables
Don’t drop
the game
Use
sadness
early
Make
women
happy at
the end
Disgust
and
recover
Make
women
excited at
the end Don’t start
with
confusion
Time the
peaks right
Grow the
trend
Strongest Variables
Don’t drop
the game
Use
sadness
early
Make
women
happy at
the end
Disgust
and
recover
Make
women
excited at
the end Don’t start
with
confusion
Time the
peaks right
Grow the
trend
Attraction
Hook in 8 seconds
Retention
Keep the audience
Impact
Kahneman’s Peak-End
Engagement
Connect via emotions
EmotionAll®
Confusion is
dominant
emotion for first
45 secs, lowering
attraction
Happiness
spikes and
dominates
throughout
Happiness
drops, but video
ends with
peak, leaving
viewers with
strong impact
Minimal
negative
emotions
throughout
This video has very good
overall performance.
Better than 95% of videos.
So Real it’s Scary
Emotional
Impact
Male
79.5%
Female
79.4%
Emotional
Impact
Age
Income
CountriesCompetitor
In-depth analysis
Conclusions
Confusion in the first
45 seconds lowers
attraction. Happiness
spikes and dominates
throughout.
Top
5%
Compared with
video A, LG leaves
viewers with a
higher impact.
A B
• 18-34
• Single, divorced,
separated.
• Low or very low
income.
~
Get attention with a strong spike of
surprise and happiness in the first eight
seconds. Avoid confusion.
Prevent drops and end
with a spike for the
strongest impact.
Ending with an engagement
spike benefits the syndication
strategy of publishers with
higher play-to-end rates.
Syndicate to relevant
audiences with the
highest engagement.
Learning
€
Activate the video
across UK and US
audiences
15” to 5’
content length
20+
categories
EmotionAll®
1,000+
videos tested
30+
countries
Consumers love emotional content...
3xhigher average
view to end %
8xhigher click
through rate
20xbetter in
converting views
into social
actions
100xQuicker in
attracting
viewers
Source: Be On research
8%increase in Brand
Recommendation
7%
increase in
Purchase Intent
14%increase in Brand
Favourability
...and it also creates ROI
Creative
Attraction
Retention
Engagement
Impact
Media
Syndication
Optimisation
Sharing
ROI
Brand Favourability
Purchase Intent
Brand Awareness
+ =
Create Syndicate Measure
Impact Model

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Predicting Cannes Lions - Be On and Realeyes - WARC Advertising Research 2013

Editor's Notes

  1. Inefficient in ROIWHY All working on media sideShould we look at creative?Do not know the impact of creative WHY
  2. In addition to IPA, also Cannes
  3. Entered > Shortlisted > Medals > Golds each year visually and talk about all the different juries at those stages briefly?Lots of numbers and methodology for cannes LionsCarefully constructed creative selectionThere is no way to measure creative effectively WHY
  4. DEMO
  5. Add bubbles around the graph:Avg, Max, Min% ofCohortsSmoothing settingsTrendsEventsHead poseGesturesBy AgeBy Gender
  6. Picked from distinctions between three key groupsShortlisted vs Not ShortlistedMedal vs RestGold vs RestThe point is to show which groups were compared to identify strongest drivers of performance.
  7. Build them in one by one on click in the following order:Make Women Happy In The EndDon't Drop The GameDisgust And RecoverUse Sadness EarlyDon’t Start With ConfusionMake Women Excited In The EndGrow The TrendTime The Peaks RightArrange all the bubbles around the golden
  8. Maybe even without the sceen, just lines in full, you call.
  9. Link: http://delivery.realeyesit.com/SBS/Compare?items[0].studyId=656&items[0].elementId=3539&measures=35&measures=122
  10. Link: http://delivery.realeyesit.com/SBS/Compare?items[0].studyId=640&items[0].elementId=3296&measures=35&measures=64
  11. Link: http://delivery.realeyesit.com/SBS/Compare?items[0].studyId=656&items[0].elementId=3436&measures=35&measures=119
  12. Link: http://delivery.realeyesit.com/SBS/Compare?items[0].studyId=636&items[0].elementId=3015&measures=35&measures=63
  13. Link: http://delivery.realeyesit.com/SBS/Compare?items[0].studyId=640&items[0].elementId=3283&measures=35&measures=109
  14. LARGER
  15. Mihkel will send slides 19-32 tonight.
  16. Mihkel will send slides 19-32 tonight.
  17. Future improvementsMore dataMore meta-variables Match audience with videos Segment by genre Session level variables
  18. Build them in one by one on click in the following order:Make Women Happy In The EndDon't Drop The GameDisgust And RecoverUse Sadness EarlyDon’t Start With ConfusionMake Women Excited In The EndGrow The TrendTime The Peaks RightArrange all the bubbles around the golden
  19. Build them in one by one on click in the following order:Make Women Happy In The EndDon't Drop The GameDisgust And RecoverUse Sadness EarlyDon’t Start With ConfusionMake Women Excited In The EndGrow The TrendTime The Peaks RightArrange all the bubbles around the golden
  20. 5 countries 3 ads in 1 hour – no time for such depth, need simpler
  21. Data from LG report
  22. Emotionally stronger ads get3x higher average view to end %8x higher click through rate20x better in converting views into social actions100x quicker in attracting viewers.Source: Be On and Realeyes research based on 400 videos study, 2013
  23. … imagine if 15 seconds into watching the ad we can already tell what the brand lift and purchase intent of the viewing will be without asking a single question
  24. Understand emotions through an Impact Score