Electric Commercial Vehicle Market

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Electric Commercial Vehicle Market

  1. 1. Strategic Analysis of the North American and European Electric Commercial Vehicle Market Sandeep Kar Global Program Manager, Commercial Vehicle Research Vishnu Muralidharan Senior Research Analyst With Special Guest Jonathan M. Randall Director, Sales & Marketing Freightliner Custom Chassis Corporation June 16, 2010
  2. 2. 22 1950s Urbanization 2000s Suburbanization 2015s Network City 2020s : Branded Cities Hybrid/electric LCVs deliver peak efficiency and cost benefits in intra-city areas. HCVs, long-haul vehicles, and inter-modal transportation centers support hub-and-spoke logistics infrastructure. Urban sprawl, first highways and ring road Creation of the historic centre and districts Third suburban area and cities along the highways created, ring road overblown by the urban sprawl Ring Road Motorway, Living Areas growing outside the ring road as seen in London In the Developed World: Increasing Trend of De-Urbanization - Polarization of Commercial Vehicle Classes and Rising Demand for Hybrid/Electric Commercial Vehicles Source: Frost & Sullivan
  3. 3. 33 Smart Cities - Replacing “GREEN” with “SMART” These 3 elements Will define the ‘Smart’ Mobility of the future
  4. 4. 44 Basic Small High Medium MAV & SUV Van Others Low Medium 0 2 4 6 8 10 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Volume Share in 2009 VehiclePurchaseCostIndexforaCSO LowMediumHigh More space and comfort. Ideal for neighborhood residential Brand image for business customers Ideal of city driving Bubble Size: 2009 Carsharing Vehicles Volumes Market for Carsharing: Market Share of Carsharing Fleet Segments (Europe), 2009 531 3,470 2009 2016 Vans in Carsharing Fleet (EU) • Vansharing is a growing trend within carsharing, catering to business goods and household transportation. • Mobility of goods for urban delivery are successfully partnered within Vansharing (Examples in Turin, Bologna and London) • Vansharing encompasses the same benefits offered to carsharing such as parking areas, monetary support as the vans always belong to the same carsharing organisations (CSO) Smart Cities Will Feature Smart Companies Offering Smart Commercial Vehicle Mobility Options Vansharing is a niche market Mobility Car Sharing Mercedes Vito Streetcar VW Transporter CarCityClub Fiat Doblò
  5. 5. 5M3A1-18 Electric Commercial Vehicle Market: 1.5 Tonnes Payload in Return-to-Depot Applications Driving First Wave of Penetration GCW / GVW 1* (ton) Load Capacity (ton) Typical Application Pure Electric Attractiveness 3.5 1.5 Urban distribution 7.5 4 Urban distribution 12 7.2 Urban distribution 18 11 Inter Urban distribution 26 17 Long distance 40 25 Long distance Best Fit for Electric Commercial Vehicles: Depot-based urban delivery fleets cover known routes (typically under 100 miles) and they return to base every night where they can be recharged Without Government funds EV do not have a future, as initial cost is very high
  6. 6. 6 End-user Research: Key Desired Benefits of Powertrain Technologies Among Managers of Largest Fleets in U.S. Point Towards Hybrid/Electric Commercial Vehicles as Solutions Highest Ranking Benefits of Powertrain Technologies (N=109) 59% 17% 5% 5% 6% 17% 19% 20% 9% 6% 6% 6% 6% 12% 18% 22% 10% 10% 8% 8% 5% 5% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Fuel Efficiency Reliability Reduced Maintenance Requirement Longer Lifecycle Attractive Lifecycle Costs Effectiveness Under All Operating Conditions Residual Value Reduce Idling Lower Weight Penalty Low Level Emissions Acces to Powertrain Support Infrastructure #1 ranking #2 ranking #3 ranking Note: Proportions less than three not shown numerically in chart. Q: When purchasing powertrain technologies, please rank the top three benefits that are most important to your fleet from the following list below? Hybrid /Electric Commercial Vehicles- Offer Solutions But Pose Challenges Too!! Solutions Fuel Efficiency, Reduced Maintenance, Low Emissions, Reduce Idling, Residual Value Challenges Reliability, Lifecycle Costs, Effectiveness Under All Operating Conditions, Weight Penalty Source: Frost & Sullivan
  7. 7. 7 Roadmap for Electric Commercial Vehicles: Advancements in battery technology will determine widespread acceptance of electric vehicles in commercial sector as return on investment is a key decision factor Source: Frost & Sullivan Electric Vehicles Market: Technology Roadmap for Electric Commercial Vehicles (Europe), 2009-2016 Performance Battery Motor Infrastructure Fast Charging Permanent Magnets In-Wheel Motors Driving distance / Charge up to 90 kms Charge time 6 ~ 8 hours Zebra (Sodium Nickel Chloride) Lead Acid Batteries 2009 2015 ~ 2017 On-Board Charging ~ 200 kms Battery Swapping 2011 ~ 2013 Lithium Ion ~ 300 kms ~ 1 hour < 15 minutes Battery Capacity up to 16 kWh Up to 50 kWh 75 kWh and more Ultra capacitors
  8. 8. 8 EU and NA Electric CV Market: Battery Price Reduction Key for Volume Growth Jury is Out on the Optimal Li-ion Technology for Sustainable Growth one thing is certain…But the Future is Li-ion…Pricing Trends Shows South-bound Slide
  9. 9. 9 List of Major Electric Light Commercial Vehicles in Europe: Rapid Proliferation of OEMs in both Sub and Plus 1 Ton Categories European electric-LCV market mostly consists of conversions today The sub 1 ton category payload consists mainly of regional manufacturers, new entrants such as Tata or Mahindra could compete in this sector with their low cost platform capabilities
  10. 10. 10 List of Major Electric Light and Medium Commercial Vehicles: Ford has the advantage of being an early entrant in the North American LCV market. 2010 expectedn2000*150 Freightliner Custom Chassis (MT-45 walk in van chassis) nn7384150Smith Electric (Based on Avia D75 ) 2011 expectednPassenger version of Transit Connect Ford (Tourneo Connect) 2012 expectedn1500*100*Daimler (Sprinter Electric) 2011 expectedn2041100*Boulder Electric n2000*65 ~ 75Electrorides (Based on Isuzu N series) 2010 expectedn2000*100Modec - Navistar 2010 expectednn2000*115 EVI (Based on Freightliner Chassis) 2012 expectedn700*100*Fiat / Chrysler (Fiat Doblo) 2010 expectedn750*80Ford (Transit Connect) Market StatusClass 2-3 Vehicle Weight Class Class 4 Class 5 Payload (kg) Range (miles)Manufacturer Note: Where ever applicable payloads are taken from medium wheelbase panel van / box van body style *Estimated Figures Available in market currently
  11. 11. 11 European Electric LCV Market: Production Forecast – OEMs Keen to Learn from Early Adopters’ Experience, 2013-2016 Expected to Emerge as Period of Rapid Proliferation 0 50 100 150 200 250 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 UnitShipments(Thousand) Optimistic Frost & Sullivan Conservative Growth Opportunities in the Commercial Truck Industry: Unit Shipment Forecasts for Electric LCV (Europe), 2009-2016 •The European Electric Light Commercial Vehicle Market is expected to grow during the forecast period (for the Frost & Sullivan scenario) with a total of 165,201 units sold in 2016 at a CAGR of 110% •Supermarket, parcel delivery, local municipals are likely be the first adopters of these e-LCV. •The above forecasts includes only car derived vans, Vans and Light Trucks that have a GVW of 3.5* tonnes Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan Ford Source: Frost & Sullivan Growth Opportunities in the Commercial Truck Industry: OEM Model timeline for e-LCV (Europe), 2009 Daimler e-LCV Model Timeline 0 10025 50 75 2013 Market Share (% of total e-LCV market in Europe) 2010 20142011 2012 2013 Transit Connect 0 10025 50 75 2013 Market Share (% of total e-LCV market in Europe) 2010 20142011 2012 2013 Sprinter e-LCV Model Timeline Vito Renault 0 10025 50 75 2013 Market Share (% of total e-LCV market in Europe) e-LCV Model Timeline 2010 20142011 2012 2013 Kangoo
  12. 12. 12 North American Electric MCV Market: Class 4, seem very attractive for electrification as intra city logistics distribution application perfectly suit electric vehicles 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 UnitShipments(Thousand) Optimistic Frost & Sullivan Conservative North American Electric Commercial Vehicle Market: Unit Shipment Forecasts for Electric MCV (2009 ~ 2016) Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan •The North American Electric Medium Commercial Vehicle Market is expected to grow during the forecast period (for the Frost & Sullivan scenario) with a total of 26,635 units sold in 2016 at a CAGR of 154% •The above forecasts includes only Class 4,5 & 6 vehicles comprising mainly of utility and logistics and delivery vehicles. The NA market is likely to see a large share of e-MCV as most of the vehicles in this class are best suited for electrification with their deployment in urban distribution Boulder Electric Freightliner North American Electric Commercial Vehicle Market: OEM Market Share for e-MCV (2009) Navistar 0 10025 50 75 2014 Market Share (% of total e-MCV market in North America) e-LCV Model Timeline 2010 20142011 2012 2013 x 0 10025 50 75 2014 Market Share (% of total e-MCV market in North America) e-LCV Model Timeline 2010 20142011 2012 2013 Boulder van 0 10025 50 75 2014 Market Share (% of total e-MCV market in North America) e-LCV Model Timeline 2010 20142011 2012 2013 Mt-45 chassis
  13. 13. 13 Since EV is going to be leased telematics can be bundled as standard product and included in lease plan (hidden) EV will resemble commercial vehicle model where OEMs and fleet owners will use RVD / prognostics to better manage vehicles Services like state of charge, booking charging station requires new telematics through connectivity – critical services Electricity usage needs to be monitored and EV drivers need to be billed – telematics is going to be instrumental Telematics is still an option and the high cost of systems and services are transferred to end consumer in open manner Remote vehicle diagnostics including elements like remote supervision and Pro-active maintanence are still niche Real time services require connectivity and conventional users are not ready to pay for such services as they see little value Low degree of applicability of real-time 2 way communication for billing and payments Impact of New Business Models like Leasing and Rentals Need for Diagnostics for Better Maintenance Enabling Real Time Financial Transactions Need for New Types of Services Conventional Vehicle Electric VehicleKey Factors Overall FitLow High 1 52 3 4 Low High 1 52 3 4 Overall Fit of Telematics and Connectivity Within Electric Vehicles is Driven by Solid Use Cases Largely Absent for Conventional Vehicles
  14. 14. 14 Three studies were conducted simultaneously for both Europe and North America, providing a holistic view of Customers Requirements from EV CVs Fleet Drivers Fleet Managers • Driving Habits (including distance travelled, number of trips per day, parking location, parking duration, weight carried etc) • The influence that drivers have in the purchase of their fleet vehicle and their attitudes and needs in relation to EVs • Key decision makers in the choice of their business fleet vehicles • Understanding of the factors they used to choose fleet vehicles and their views and attitudes towards EVs • Forecast EV uptake within businesses and analysis of key elements such as price, range and charging sensitivity Fleet Drivers & Fleet Managers – Businesses of Focus: Building & Maintenance Public Sector Postal / Courier Car Rental Business Delivery Utility & Telecoms Consumers • Driving habits, priorities for new vehicle purchase, interest in EVs, and response to Business Models European Study 1982 interviews, over 50% in London, Berlin, Paris & Milan European Study 248 Interviews: 50% Passenger Vehicles, 25% Small LCVs, 25% Large LCVs European Study 95 Fleet Managers North American Study 1769 interviews, equal split between Northeast, Midwest, South and West regions. North American Study – in progress 153 interviews North American Study – in progress 80 Fleet Managers
  15. 15. 15 Electric Vehicle Preferences (cont.): Fleet Profiles and Interest in Electric Vehicles in Europe – Government Fleets and Public Fleets Showing Highest Degree of Interest in Electric Sector
  16. 16. 16 Electric Vehicle Preferences (cont.): Summary of LCV Customer Profiles United Kingdom – Customers Willing to Bear Additional 10-15% Price Premium to Obtain Electric LCVs. LCV Fleet Customers (Interviewed for Consumer Study) Current Fleet Size % of EV’s in Fleet Customer Brand preference for e-LCVs Inputs on Business Model Vehicle Spec. Requirement TOTAL: ~2,000 vehicles <1% (below 2.5Tonnes) e-LCV= ~30-60 Business Delivery Services Government Government Business Delivery Services Postal & Courier Services Utility Weight Requirements Normal Load carried is around 760- 860 kgFord TransitMercedes Sprinter TOTAL: ~320 vehicles e-LCV= 2% NO BRAND PREFERENCE Height : 1950 mm Width : 1850 mm Length : 4100 mm Capacity : 13 to 15 m3 • Business case review needed • Ready to spend ~10% more than standard diesel version Height : 1950 mm Width : 1850 mm Length : 4100 mm Capacity : 13 to 15 m3 TOTAL: ~700 vehicles e-LCV= 2.8% • Business case review needed • Ready to spend ~10%-15% more than standard diesel versionFord Transit TOTAL: 12 vehicles e-LCV= 2 Vehicles • Ready to spend ~15% more than standard diesel version Capacity and load carrying capacity is critical. TOTAL: ~30,000 vehicles Saloon Car with 5 passengers is required • Likely to shift towards H2 Fuel cell vehicle NO BRAND PREFERENCE TOTAL: ~3,000 vehicles Capacity and weight requirements Passenger Cars = min 4 seats, 4 door CDV Vans = 0.6 – 0.8 tonnes Essential to buy from a leading brand NA NA LCV Fleet Customers (Interviewed for Consumer Study) Current Fleet Size % of EV’s in Fleet Customer Brand preference for e-LCVs Inputs on Business Model Vehicle Spec. Requirement TOTAL: ~2,000 vehicles <1% (below 2.5Tonnes) e-LCV= ~30-60 Business Delivery Services Government Government Business Delivery Services Postal & Courier Services Utility Weight Requirements Normal Load carried is around 760- 860 kgFord TransitMercedes Sprinter TOTAL: ~320 vehicles e-LCV= 2% NO BRAND PREFERENCE Height : 1950 mm Width : 1850 mm Length : 4100 mm Capacity : 13 to 15 m3 • Business case review needed • Ready to spend ~10% more than standard diesel version Height : 1950 mm Width : 1850 mm Length : 4100 mm Capacity : 13 to 15 m3 TOTAL: ~700 vehicles e-LCV= 2.8% • Business case review needed • Ready to spend ~10%-15% more than standard diesel versionFord Transit TOTAL: 12 vehicles e-LCV= 2 Vehicles • Ready to spend ~15% more than standard diesel version Capacity and load carrying capacity is critical. TOTAL: ~30,000 vehicles Saloon Car with 5 passengers is required • Likely to shift towards H2 Fuel cell vehicle NO BRAND PREFERENCE TOTAL: ~3,000 vehicles Capacity and weight requirements Passenger Cars = min 4 seats, 4 door CDV Vans = 0.6 – 0.8 tonnes Essential to buy from a leading brand NA NA
  17. 17. 17 39% 14% 0% 4% 63% 18% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Basic purchase price Cost of ownership across service life of vehicle Cost per mile driven Resale value Other Consumer Analysis: U.S. Light Vehicle Fleet Market: “Cost of Ownership Across Service Life of a Vehicle” is the primary basis for comparing vehicles 39% PercentageofRespondents With respect to costs, how do you normally calculate and compare vehicles? Within how many years would you expect to recover the purchase/lease premium of an EV from savings in operating costs? • Based on 80 interviews with fleet managers. • Other indicates all other financial models that fleet managers may be using; Further information on these models is not available. • Percentages may not add to 100 since they have been rounded off. 4.3 4.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 Mean Median Number of Years • Based on 80 interviews with fleet managers. • Based on interviews with 80 fleet managers
  18. 18. 18 Yes 47% No 53% All Respondents Question 34. When purchasing your current fleet did you consider and EV- LCV Fleet Managers Building and Maintenance 3% Business Delivery Services 16% Government 24% Postal and Courier 19% Taxi or private hire 19% Utility or Telecoms 19% Building and Maintenance 31% Business Delivery Services 19% Government 11% Postal and Courier 14% Taxi or private hire 6% Utility or Telecoms 19% From the sample of LCV Fleet Managers who said they had considered an EV in their fleet- it is the Government and the Utility & Telecoms sectors that have been the most responsive to EVs It can be seen that the Building & Maintenance industry have been the most resistant to choosing EVs as part of their fleet Consumer Analysis: About half of the LCV managers interviewed have already considered EVs as part of their fleet. With further models tailored to fleets, this number will increase. * Based on 68 Fleet Manager interviews (those who have LCV vehicles n their fleet)
  19. 19. 19 In the End…………………………..It is All About the Box!!!!!
  20. 20. 20 Electric Technology
  21. 21. 21 FCCC is the leading chassis manufacturer of alt-fuel products, offering the widest array in all markets in which it operates Compressed Natural Gas: • Production since Mid-nineties • Over 3,000 in service • Current Program to replace Cummins B5.9G Engine for future product offering FCCC: Walk-In Van Hybrid – Alternate Fuels History Hybrid Electric: • Introduction in 2001 with joint development project with FedEx, Eaton, and Environmental Defense • Over 600 currently operating in revenue producing service and recently surpassed the 5,000,000 mile milestone • Released new features including: Low-Profile Transmission, Parking Pawl, Engine Idle-Off, Auxiliary Power Generators, and E-PTO. Hydraulic Hybrid: • Development of Advanced Engine Off hydraulic hybrid technology • Joint development project with Parker Hannifin. • Initial field and Dynamometer testing complete to validate 70% - 90% increase in fuel economy and customer technology acceptance. • Initial orders received from several national fleets, including numerous orders through the Clean Cities initiative. • Start of Production Q1 2011
  22. 22. 22 • Powered by Enova’s 120 kW Plug-In Electric Drive System Technology and Tesla Lithium-Ion 55.5kWh Batteries (3 Packs) (Battery pack same as Daimler Smart Car program) • Driving Range 100-150 miles (vehicle duty cycle /application dependant) • Supports driver comfort and safety features such as AC, heating, ABS braking, and power steering • 6 to 8 hours for a full charge with 220-volt Single Phase System from zero state of charge ● Vehicle tailored for applications with a daily route of 100+ miles per day in a urban delivery vocation. ● Continuing work with suppliers to lower costs, improving the ROI. ●Current energy costs with current diesel fuel prices can realize a $15,000 / year savings •$0.08 - $0.10 per mile energy cost vs. $0.25 - $0.48 per mile for comparable diesel or gas walk-in van •Target ROI of 3-4 years Electric vehicle development plans include new body features to add to aerodynamic – composite body to provide a complete vehicle to the customer. FCCC: Walk-In Van Electric Vehicle
  23. 23. 23 • External drivers like CO2 legislation, regulations by mega cities and customer requirements promote the topic of Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEVs). • Today the market potential of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is not yet assessable but could amount to significant volumes. • Today, the major markets for battery electric trucks and vans are Europe and NAFTA. In Asia low activities are observable. China is expected to become an important market in the future as the government is strongly pushing the topic. • The BEV market is a new, fragmented, fast growing market with many small niche players. A real consolidation of the market has not yet taken place. • Battery electric trucks and vans cover nearly all short-distance applications (daily mileage <125 Miles). • Vehicle performances are considered acceptable despite 2-3 times higher pricing compared to diesel motels. • The battery technology is the most important driver for performances and pricing. Market Overview Technology Status FCCC’s Perspective
  24. 24. 24 • Small companies dominate the market, also entering cooperation with conventional OEMs. • Most players are system integrators. Some non-conventional OEMs produce their own base vehicles. • A few of the key players in the market have already entered partnerships with conventional OEMs. • New suppliers are entering the market. Nearly all suppliers are non- typical automotive suppliers with no global presence. • There is no consolidation of the BEV suppliers but price pressure and technology advancement will change the situation in the future. BEV OEMs BEV Suppliers FCCC’s Perspective
  25. 25. 25 Next Steps Register for the next The “GIL” (A Growth Driven CEO: Critical Elements to the CEO's Partnership Strategy), (July 6, 2010) (http://www.frost.com/growth) Register for Frost & Sullivan’s Growth Opportunity Newsletter and keep abreast of innovative growth opportunities (www.frost.com/news)
  26. 26. 26 Your Feedback is Important to Us Growth Forecasts? Competitive Structure? Emerging Trends? Strategic Recommendations? Other? Please inform us by taking our survey. What would you like to see from Frost & Sullivan? Frost & Sullivan’s Growth Consulting can assist with your growth strategies
  27. 27. 27 Follow Frost & Sullivan on Twitter http://twitter.com/Frost_Sullivan Frost & Sullivan on Twitter
  28. 28. 28 For Additional Information Johanna Haynes Corporate Communications Automotive & Transportation (210) 247-3870 johanna.haynes@frost.com Craig Hays Sales Manager Automotive & Transportation 210-247-2460 craig.hays@frost.com Sandeep Kar Global Program Manager Automotive & Transportation 416-490-7796 sandeep.kar@frost.com

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