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A study on commodity
futures as an investment
         avenue




           - Sairam Bathulla 11-E06
• To examine the various risk factors in using commodity
  future.
• To study the influence of futures trading, on price and
  price variation
• To evaluate the effectiveness of the various measures of
  commodity futures as investment avenues in India




Research Objectives
• Indian commodity exchange and progress
• Rules governing commodity derivatives
  exchanges
• Use of commodity derivatives for-
   Hedging
   Speculation
   Arbitrage.




Literature Review
• Data collection
  • Primary data – questionnaire
  • Secondary data - books, internet, newspaper articles
• Convenient Sampling
• Sample size - 30




Research Methodology
Age of Respondents


                   13%




                                18 – 24 years

     43%
                                25 – 30 years

                                31 & Above




                         44%




Analysis & Interpretation
Annual income level



                              23%
       27%



                                          1,00,000 – 2,00,000


                                          2,00,000 – 3,00,000


                                          3,00,000 – 5,00,000
                                    20%
                                          5,00,000 & above

             30%




Analysis & Interpretation
Do you trade in commodity futures ?

                 0%




                                            Yes
                                            No



                100%




Analysis & Interpretation
what is the frequency of trading?




        20%




                                        Regular Trader


                                        Potential Customer




                      80%




Analysis & Interpretation
Reasons behind regular trading:


         17%

                               25%



                                         Trade on an organized exchange


                                         Standardized contract terms


   25%
                                         follows of daily settlement


                                         location of settlement

                         33%




Analysis & Interpretation
Is futures trading influence the price and price variation ?


       18

       16

       14

       12
       10
            8
            6
            4
            2
            0

                  Yes

                                      No




Analysis & Interpretation
If influences then on which factors

  6


  5


  4


  3


  2


  1


  0
      Seasonal price variation Inter & intra seasonal   Short term oscillation   Average received by
                                   price variation                               producer and paid by
                                                                                      consumer




Analysis & Interpretation
If dose not influence commodity futures then what influence among
following?

     8

     7

     6

     5

     4

     3

     2

     1

     0
            By hedging      By speculation   By arbitrage



Analysis & Interpretation
Satisfaction about future trading in commodity exchange –

9
                      8
8
7
6
        5                            5              5              5
5
4
3
                                                                                 2
2
1
0
    Transparent   Fair price     Automated       Unique        To provide    To bring
      trading     discovery    trading system identification   nationwide together the
                                                 number         reach and   entities that
                                                               consistent the market can
                                                                 offering       trust




Analysis & Interpretation
Satisfaction on current regulatory mechanism of commodity futures
in India -
                                    a. Limit on net open position as on the close
                                       of the trading hours.
                                    b. Limit on price fluctuation to allow cooling
                                       of market in the event of abrupt upswing or
        20%
                    17%
                                       downswing prices.
                                a   c. Special margin deposit to be collected on
                                b
                                       outstanding purchase or sales when price
                                       fluctuate.
                                c
                                    d. Minimummaximum prices-these are
                                d
  20%                                  prescribed to prevent futures prices from
                          30%
                                e      falling below as rising above not warranted
                                       prospective supply or demand.
              13%                   e. Skipping trading in certain derivatives of
                                       the contract, closing the market for a
                                       special period and even closing out the
                                       contract.

Analysis & Interpretation
• The risk can be eliminated by –
    Speculation
    Hedging
    Arbitrage
    Seasonal price fluctuation
• The beta calculation
• The weighting scheme




Conclusion
• A negotiable document
• An agency is to be set up
• A Clearing House
• Commodities trading must be settled in
  determined form
• Widespread market awareness
• Healthy competition
• The market should be made broader



Suggestion & Recommendations
Thank You…..

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A study on commodity futures as an investment

  • 1. A study on commodity futures as an investment avenue - Sairam Bathulla 11-E06
  • 2. • To examine the various risk factors in using commodity future. • To study the influence of futures trading, on price and price variation • To evaluate the effectiveness of the various measures of commodity futures as investment avenues in India Research Objectives
  • 3. • Indian commodity exchange and progress • Rules governing commodity derivatives exchanges • Use of commodity derivatives for-  Hedging  Speculation  Arbitrage. Literature Review
  • 4. • Data collection • Primary data – questionnaire • Secondary data - books, internet, newspaper articles • Convenient Sampling • Sample size - 30 Research Methodology
  • 5. Age of Respondents 13% 18 – 24 years 43% 25 – 30 years 31 & Above 44% Analysis & Interpretation
  • 6. Annual income level 23% 27% 1,00,000 – 2,00,000 2,00,000 – 3,00,000 3,00,000 – 5,00,000 20% 5,00,000 & above 30% Analysis & Interpretation
  • 7. Do you trade in commodity futures ? 0% Yes No 100% Analysis & Interpretation
  • 8. what is the frequency of trading? 20% Regular Trader Potential Customer 80% Analysis & Interpretation
  • 9. Reasons behind regular trading: 17% 25% Trade on an organized exchange Standardized contract terms 25% follows of daily settlement location of settlement 33% Analysis & Interpretation
  • 10. Is futures trading influence the price and price variation ? 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Yes No Analysis & Interpretation
  • 11. If influences then on which factors 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Seasonal price variation Inter & intra seasonal Short term oscillation Average received by price variation producer and paid by consumer Analysis & Interpretation
  • 12. If dose not influence commodity futures then what influence among following? 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 By hedging By speculation By arbitrage Analysis & Interpretation
  • 13. Satisfaction about future trading in commodity exchange – 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 0 Transparent Fair price Automated Unique To provide To bring trading discovery trading system identification nationwide together the number reach and entities that consistent the market can offering trust Analysis & Interpretation
  • 14. Satisfaction on current regulatory mechanism of commodity futures in India - a. Limit on net open position as on the close of the trading hours. b. Limit on price fluctuation to allow cooling of market in the event of abrupt upswing or 20% 17% downswing prices. a c. Special margin deposit to be collected on b outstanding purchase or sales when price fluctuate. c d. Minimummaximum prices-these are d 20% prescribed to prevent futures prices from 30% e falling below as rising above not warranted prospective supply or demand. 13% e. Skipping trading in certain derivatives of the contract, closing the market for a special period and even closing out the contract. Analysis & Interpretation
  • 15. • The risk can be eliminated by –  Speculation  Hedging  Arbitrage  Seasonal price fluctuation • The beta calculation • The weighting scheme Conclusion
  • 16. • A negotiable document • An agency is to be set up • A Clearing House • Commodities trading must be settled in determined form • Widespread market awareness • Healthy competition • The market should be made broader Suggestion & Recommendations