Credit risk mgt

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Credit risk mgt

  1. 1. FFRRV DRVIGNANA JYOTHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENTCredit Risk Management in Banks Subject: Financial Management of Banks & Insurance companies Submitted by: Group 2 Rakesh Konda : 9136 Swetha Jakka : 9151 Aravind Taduka : 9206 Bhanu Teja D : 9208 Swathi Jakka : 9252
  2. 2. ContentsIntroduction ................................................................................................................................ 3Credit Risk Management philosophy ...................................................................................... 4Credit Risk ................................................................................................................................. 4Forms of Credit Risk .................................................................................................................. 4Common causes of Credit Risk situations ................................................................................. 4Credit Risk Management-Functionality..................................................................................... 6Differences between Credit Management & Credit Risk Management .................................... 6Goals of Credit Risk Management ............................................................................................. 7The Credit Risk Management Process ....................................................................................... 8The Credit Rating Mechanism ................................................................................................... 9 Who undertakes Credit Rating ............................................................................................. 10 Methods 0f Credit Rating..................................................................................................... 11 Scores / Grades in Credit Rating .......................................................................................... 12 Fundamental principle of Rating and Grading..................................................................... 12 Types of Credit Rating ......................................................................................................... 13 Usual parameters for Credit Rating ..................................................................................... 14Approach to Credit Risk Models ............................................................................................. 16 Techniques ........................................................................................................................... 16 Domain of application.......................................................................................................... 17 Credit Risk models............................................................................................................... 18Risk evaluation is easy with Balanced Scorecard system ........................................................ 19Conclusion ............................................................................................................................... 21References ................................................................................................................................ 22 [2]
  3. 3. IntroductionWith the advancing liberalization and globalization, credit risk management is gaining a lotof importance. It is very important for banks today to understand and manage credit risk. Banks today put in a lot of efforts in managing, modeling and structuring credit risk.Credit risk is defined as the potential that a borrower or counterparty will fail to meetits obligation in accordance with agreed terms. RBI has been extremely sensitive to the creditrisk it faces on the domestic and international front.Credit risk management is not just a process or procedure. It is a fundamental component ofthe banking function. The management of credit risk must be incorporated into the fiber ofbanks. Any bank today needs to implement efficient risk adjusted return on capitalmethodologies, and build cutting-edge portfolio credit risk management systems. Credit Risk comes full circle. Traditionally the primary risk of financial institutions has beencredit risk arising through lending. As financial institutions entered new markets and tradednew products, other risks such as market risk began to compete for managements attention.In the last few decades financial institutions have developed tools and methodologies tomanage market risk.Recently the importance of managing credit risk has grabbed managements attention. Onceagain, the biggest challenge facing financial institutions is credit risk. In the last decade,business and trade have expanded rapidly both nationally and globally. By expanding, bankshave taken on new market risks and credit risks by dealing with new clients and in somecases new governments also. Even banks that do not enter into new markets are finding thatthe concentration of credit risk within their existing market is a hindrance to growth. As aresult, banks have created risk management mechanisms in order to facilitate their growthand to safeguard their interests.The challenge for financial institutions is to turn credit risk into an opportunity. While banksattention has returned to credit risk, the nature of credit risk has changed over the period.Credit risk must be managed at both the individual and the portfolio levels and that too bothfor retail and corporate. Managing credit risks requires specific knowledge of thecounterparty‘s (borrowers) business and financial condition. While there are alreadynumerous methods and tools for evaluating individual, direct credit transactions, comparableinnovations for managing portfolio credit risk are only just becoming available.Likewise much of traditional credit risk management is passive. Such activity has includedtransaction limits determined by the customers credit rating, the transactions tenor, and theoverall exposure level. Now there are more active management techniques. [3]
  4. 4. Credit Risk Management philosophyMostly all banks today practice credit risk management. They understand the importance ofcredit risk management and think of it as a ladder to growth by reducing their NPA‘s.Moreover they are now using it as a tool to succeed over their competition because credit riskmanagement practices reduce risk and improve return capital.Credit Risk―Probability of loss from a credit transaction ―is the general definition of credit risk.According to the Basel Committee, ―Credit Risk is most simply defined as the potential that aborrower or counter-party will fail to meet its obligations in accordance with agreed terms‖.The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has defined credit risk as ―the probability of lossesassociated with diminution in the credit quality of borrowers or counter-parties‖. Thoughcredit risk is closely related with the business of lending (that is BANKS) it is in factapplicable to all activities where credit is involved (for example, manufactures /traders selltheir goods on credit to their customers).Forms of Credit RiskThe RBI has laid down the following forms of credit risk:  Non-repayment of the principal of the loan and /or the interest on it.  Contingent liabilities like letters of credit/guarantees issued by the bank on behalf of the client and upon crystallization---- amount not deposited by the customer.  In the case of treasury operations, default by the counter-parties in meeting the obligations.  In the case of securities trading, settlement not taking place when it‘s due.  In the case of cross – border obligations, any default arising from the flow of foreign exchange and /or due to restrictions imposed on remittances out of the country.Common causes of Credit Risk situationsOne of the most important operations of a bank is lending money in form of loans or givingcredit. However this operation generates certain risks. When any party approaches the bankfor loans, the bank takes into account three factors: 1. Probability of default: this is the possibility of failure to pay over the period stipulated in the contract. The computation for that year may be termed as the projected default rate. [4]
  5. 5. 2. Exposure of Credit: how big of an amount will the debt be in case default should occur? 3. Estimated Rate of Recovery: what portion of the debt can be regained through freezing of assets and collateral and the like, should default transpireHowever when the bank gets aggressive in its credit operations, such situations lead to creditrisk and therefore it becomes important for the banks to do credit risk management. Broadlythere are 3 causes for credit risk management. 1. Credit concentration 2. Credit granting and/or monitoring process 3. Credit exposure in the market and liquidity sensitivity sectors 1. CREDIT CONCENTRATIONAny kind of concentration has its limitations. The cardinal principle is that all eggs must notbe put in the same basket. Concentrating credit on any one obligor /group or type of industry/trade can pose a threat to the lenders well being. In the case of banking, the extent ofconcentration is to be judged according to the following criteria:  The institution‘s capital base (paid-up capital + reserves & surplus, etc).  The institutions total tangible assets.  The institutions prevailing risk level.The alarming consequence of concentration is the likelihood of large losses at one time or insuccession without an opportunity to absorb the shock. Credit concentration may take any orboth of the following forms:  Conventional: in a single borrower/group or in a particular sector like steel, petroleum, etc.  Common/ correlated concentration: for example, exchange rate devaluation and its effect on foreign exchange derivative counter-parties. 2. INEFFECTIVE CREDIT GRANTING AND / OR MONITORING PROCESSA strong appraisal system and pre- sanction care are basic requisites in the credit deliverysystem. This again needs to be supplemented by an appropriate and prompt post-disbursement supervision and follow-up system. The history of finance is replete with casesof default due to ineffective credit granting and/or monitoring systems and practices in anorganization, however effective, need to be subjected to improvement from time to time inthe light of developments in the marketplace. [5]
  6. 6. 3. CREDIT EXPOSURE IN THE MARKET AND LIQUIDITY-SENSITIVE SECTORSForeign exchange and derivates contracts, letter of credit and liquidity back up lines etc.while being remunerative; create sudden hiccups in the organizations financial base. To guardagainst rude shock, the organization must have in place a Compact Analytical System tocheck for the customer‘s vulnerability to liquidity problems. In this context, the BaselCommittee states that, ―Market and liquidity-sensitive exposures, because they areprobabilistic, can be correlated with credit-worthiness of the borrower‖.Credit Risk Management-FunctionalityThe credit risk architecture provides the broad way to effectively identify, measure, manageand control credit risk, both at portfolio and individual levels, in accordance with a banks riskprinciples, risk policies, risk process and risk appetite as a continuous feature. It aims tostrengthen and increase the efficacy of the organization, while maintaining consistency andtransparency. Beginning with the Basel Capital Accord-I in 1988 and the subsequent Baringsepisode in1995 and the Asian Financial Crisis in1997, the credit risk management functionhas become the centre of gravity, especially in a financial services industry like banking.Differences between Credit Management & Credit Risk Management Although credit risk management is analogous to credit management, there aredifferences between the two. Here are some of the following: CREDIT MANAGEMENT CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT It involves selecting and identifying the It involves identifying and analyzing risk borrower/counter party. in a credit transaction.It revolves around examining the 3P’s of It revolves around measuring, managing andborrower: people (character and capacity of controlling credit risk in the context of anthe borrower/guarantor), purpose (especially organization‘s credit philosophy and creditif the project/purpose is viable or not), appetite.protection (security offered, borrower‘scapital, etc.)It is predominantly concerned with the It is predominantly concerned withprobability of repayment. probability of default.Credit appraisal and analysis do not usually Depending on the risk manifestations of anprovide an exit feature at the time of exposure, an exist route remains a usualsanction. option through the sale of assets/securitization. [6]
  7. 7. The standard financial tools of assessment for Statistical tools like VaR (Value at Risk),credit management are balance sheet/income CVaR (Credit Value at Risk), duration andstatement, cash flow statement coupled with simulation techniques, etc. form the core ofcomputation of specific accounting ratios. It credit risk management.is then followed by post-sanction supervisionand a follow-up mechanism (e.g. inspectionof securities, etc.).It is more backward-looking in its It is forward looking in its assessment,assessment, in terms of studying the looking, for instance, at a likely scenario ofantecedents / performance of the borrower an adverse outcome in the business./counterparty.Goals of Credit Risk ManagementThe international regulatory bodies felt that a clear and well laid risk management system isthe first prerequisite in ensuring the safety and stability of the system. The following are thegoals of credit risk management of any bank/financial organization:  Maintaining risk-return discipline by keeping risk exposure within acceptable parameters.  Fixing proper exposure limits, keeping in view the risk philosophy and risk appetite of the organization.  Handling credit risk both on an ―entire portfolio‖ basis and on an ―individual credit or transaction‖ basis.  Maintaining an appropriate balance between credit risk and other risks – like market risk, operational risk, etc.  Placing equal emphasis on ―banking book credit risk‖ (for example, loans and advances on the banks balance sheet/books), ―trading book risk‖ (securities/bonds) and ―off-balance sheet risk‖ (derivatives, guarantees, L/Cs, etc.)  Impartial and value-added control input from credit risk management to protect capital.  Providing a timely response to business requirements efficiently.  Maintaining consistent quality and efficient credit process.  Creating and maintaining a respectable and credit risk management culture to ensure quality credit portfolio.  Keeping ―consistency and transparency ―as the watchwords in credit risk management. [7]
  8. 8. The Credit Risk Management ProcessThe word `process‘ connotes a continuing activity or function towards a particular result.The process is in fact the last of the four wings in the entire risk management edifice – theother three being organizational structure, principles and policies. In effect it is the vehicle toimplement a bank‘s risk principles and policies aided by banks organizational structure, withthe sole objective of creating and maintaining a healthy risk culture in the bank.The risk management process has four components: 1. Risk Identification. 2. Risk Measurement. 3. Risk Monitoring. 4. Risk Control.RISK IDENTIFICATIONWhile identifying risks, the following points have to be kept in mind: All types of risks (existing and potential) must be identified and their likely effect in the short run be understood. The magnitude of each risk segment may vary from bank to bank. The geographical area covered by the bank may determine the coverage of its risk content. A bank that has international operations may experience different intensity of credit risks in various countries when compared with a pure domestic bank. Also, even within a bank, risks will vary in it domestic operations and its overseas arms.RISK MEASUREMENTMEASUREMENT means weighing the contents and/or value, intensity, magnitude of anyobject against a yardstick. In risk measurement it is necessary to establish clear ways ofevaluating various risk categories, without which identification would not serve any purpose.Using quantitative techniques in a qualitative framework will facilitate the followingobjectives: Finding out and understanding the exact degree of risk elements in each category in the operational environment. Directing the efforts of the bank to mitigate the risks according to the vulnerability of a particular risk factor. Taking appropriate initiatives in planning the organization‘s future thrust areas and line of business and capital allocation. The systems/techniques used to measure risk depend upon the nature and complexity of a risk factor. While a very simple qualitative assessment may be sufficient in some cases, sophisticated methodological/statistical may be necessary in others for a quantitative value. [8]
  9. 9. RISK MONITORINGKeeping close track of risk identification measurement activities in the light of the risk,principles and policies is a core function in a risk management system. For the success of thesystem, it is essential that the operating wings perform their activities within the broadcontours of the organizations risk perception. Risk monitoring activity should ensure thefollowing: Each operating segment has clear lines of authority and responsibility. Whenever the organizations principles and policies are breached, even if they may be to its advantage, must be analyzed and reported, to the concerned authorities to aid in policy making. In the course of risk monitoring, if it appears that it is in the banks interest to modify existing policies and procedures, steps to change them should be considered. There must be an action plan to deal with major threat areas facing the bank in the future. The activities of both the business and reporting wings are monitored striking a balance at all points in time. Tracking of risk migration is both upward and downward.RISK CONTROLThere must be appropriate mechanism to regulate or guide the operation of the riskmanagement system in the entire bank through a set of control devices. These can beachieved through a host of management processes such as: Assessing risk profile techniques regularly to examine how far they are effective in mitigating risk factors in the bank. Analyzing internal and external audit feedback from the risk angle and using it to activate control mechanisms. Segregating risk areas of major concern from other relatively insignificant areas and exercising more control over them. Putting in place a well drawn-out-risk-focused audit system to provide inputs on restraint for operating personnel so that they do not take needless risks for short-term interests.It is evident, therefore, that the risk management process through all its four wings facilitatean organization‘s sustainability and growth. The importance of each wing depends upon thenature of the organizations activity, size and objective. But it still remains a fact that theimportance of the entire process is paramount.The Credit Rating MechanismRating implies an assessment or evaluation of a person, property, project or affairs against aspecific yardstick/benchmark set for the purpose. In credit rating, the objective is toassess/evaluate a particular credit proposition (which includes investment) on the basis of [9]
  10. 10. certain parameters. The outcome indicates the degree of credit reliability and risk. These areclassified into various grades according to the yardstick/benchmark set for each grade. Creditrating involves both quantitative and qualitative evaluations. While financial analysis coversa host of factors such as the firm‘s competitive strength within the industry/trade, likelyeffects on the firm‘s business of any major technological changes, regulatory/legal changes,etc., which are all management factors.The Basel Committee has defined credit rating as a summary indicator of the risk inherentin individual credit, embodying an assessment of the risk of loss due to the default counter-party by considering relevant quantitative and qualitative information. Thus, credit rating is atool for the measurement or quantification of credit risk.Who undertakes Credit RatingThere is no restriction on anyone rating another bank as long as it serves their purpose. Forinstance, a would-be employee may like to do a rating before deciding to join a firm.Internationally rating agencies like Standard & Poor‘s(S&P) and Moody‘s are well known. InIndia, the four authorized rating agencies are CRISIL, ICRA, CARE, and FITCH. Theyundertake rating exercises generally when an organization wants to issue debt instrumentslike commercial paper, bonds, etc. their ratings facilitate investor decisions, althoughnormally they do not have any statutory/regulatory liability in respect of a rated instrument.This is because rating is only an opinion on the financial ability of an organization to honorpayments of principal and/or interest on a debt instrument, as and when they are dye infuture. However, since the rating agencies have the expertise in their field and are not taintedwith any bias, their ratings are handy for market participants and regulatory authorities toform judgments on an instrument and/ or the issuer and take decisions on them.Banks do undertake structured rating exercises with quantitative and qualitative inputs tosupport a credit decision, whether it is sanction or rejection. However they may be influencedBy the rating ---whether available---- of an instrument of a particular party by an externalagency even though the purpose of a bank‘s credit rating may be an omnibus one--- that is tocheck a borrower‘s capacity and competence----while that of an external agency may belimited to a particular debt instrument.UTILITY OF CREDIT RATINGIn a developing country like India, the biggest sources of funds for an organization to acquirecapital assets and/or for working capital requirement are commercial banks and developmentfinancial institutions. Hence credit rating is one of the most important tools to measure,monitor and control credit risk both at individual and portfolio levels. Overall, their utilitymay be viewed from the following angles: Credit selection/rejection. [10]
  11. 11. Evaluation of borrower in totality and of any particular exposure/facility. Transaction-level analysis and credit pricing and tenure. Activity-wise/sector-wise portfolio study keeping in view the macro-level position. Fixing outer limits for taking up/ maintaining an exposure arising out of risk rating. Monitoring exposure already in the books and deciding exit strategies in appropriate cases. Allocation of risk capital for poor graded credits. Avoiding over-concentration of exposure in specific risk grades, which may not be of major concern at a particular point of time, but may in future pose problems if the concentration continues. Clarity and consistency, together with transparency in rating a particular borrower/exposure, enabling a proper control mechanism to check risks associated in the exposure.Basel-II has summed up the utility of credit rating in this way:―Internal risk ratings are an important tool in monitoring credit risk. Internal risk ratingsshould be adequate to support the identification and measurement of risk from all credit riskexposures and should be integrated into an institution‘s overall analysis of credit risk andcapital adequacy. The ratings system should provide detailed ratings for all assets, not onlyfor criticized or problem assets. Loan loss reserves should be included in the credit riskassessment for capital adequacy.‖Methods 0f Credit Rating1. Through the cycle: In this method of credit rating, the condition of the obligor and/or position of exposure are assessed assuming the ―worst point in business cycle‖. There may be a strong element of subjectivity on the evaluator‘s part while grading a particular case. It is also difficult to implement the method when the number of borrowers/exposures is large and varied.2. Point-in-time: A rating scheme based on the current condition of the borrower/exposure. The inputs for this method are provided by financial statements, current market position of the trade / business, corporate governance, overall management expertise, etc. In India banks usually adopt the point-in-time method because: It is relatively simple to operate while at the same time providing a fair estimate of the risk grade of an obligor/exposure. It can be applied consistently and objectively. Periodical review and downgrading are possible depending upon the position.The point-in –time fully serves the purpose of credit rating of a bank. [11]
  12. 12. Scores / Grades in Credit RatingThe main aim of the credit rating system is the measurement or quantification of credit risk soas to specifically identify the probability of default (PD), exposure at default (EAD) and lossgiven default (LGD).Hence it needs a tool to implement the credit rating method (generallythe point in time method).The agency also needs to design appropriate measures for variousgrades of credit at an individual level or at a portfolio level. These grades may generally beany of the following forms: 1. Alphabet: AAA, AA, BBB, etc. 2. Number: I, II, III, IV, etc. The fundamental reasons for various grades are as follows: 1. Signaling default risks of an exposure. 2. Facilitating comparison of risks to aid decision making. 3. Compliance with regulatory of asset classification based on risk exposures. 4. Providing a flexible means to ultimately measure the credit risk of an exposure.Components of Scores/GradesScores are mere numbers allotted for each quantitative and qualitative parameter---out of themaximum allowable for each parameter as may be fixed by an organization ---of an exposure.The issue of identification of specific parameters, its overall marks and finally relatingaggregate marks (for all quantitative and qualitative parameters) to various grades is a matterof management policy and discretion---- there is no statutory or regulatory compulsion.However the management is usually guided in its efforts by the following factors: Size and complexity of operations. Varieties of its credit products and speed. The banks credit philosophy and credit appetite. Commitment of the top management to assume risks on a calculated basis without being risk-averse.Fundamental principle of Rating and GradingA basic requirement in risk grading is that it should reflect a clear and fine distinctionbetween credit grades covering default risks and safe risks in the short run. While there is noideal number of grades that would facilitate achieving this objective, it is expected that moregranularity may serve the following purposes: Objective analysis of portfolio risk. Appropriate pricing of various risk grade borrower‘s, with a focus on low-risk borrowers in terms of lower pricing. Allocation of risk capital for high risk graded exposures. Achieving accuracy and consistency. [12]
  13. 13. According to the RBI, there should be an ideal balance between ―acceptable credit risk andunacceptable credit risk‖ in a grading system. It is suggested that: A rating scale may consist of 8-9 levels. Of the above the first five levels may represent acceptable credit risks. The remaining four levels may represent unacceptable credit risks.The above scales may be denoted by numbers (1, 2, 3 etc.) or alphabets (AAA, AA, BBB,etc.)Types of Credit RatingGenerally speaking credit rating is done for any type of exposure irrespective of the nature ofan obligor‘s activity, status (government or non-government) etc. Broadly, however, creditrating done on the following types of exposures. Wholesale exposure: Exposed to the commercial and institutional sector(C&I). Retail exposure: Consumer lending, like housing finance, car finance, etc. The parameters for rating the risks of wholesale and retail exposures are different.Here are some of them: In the wholesale sector, repayment is expected from the business for which the finance is being extended. But in the case of the retail sector, repayment is done from the monthly/periodical income of an individual from his salary/ occupation. In the wholesale sector, apart from assets financed from bank funds, other business assets/personal assets of the owner may be available as security. In case of retail exposure, the assets that are financed generally constitute the sole security. Since wholesale exposure is for business purposes, enhancement lasts (especially for working capital finance) as long as the business operates. In the retail sector, however, exposure is limited to appoint of time agreed to at the time of disbursement. ―Unit‖ exposure in the retail category is quite small generally compared to that of wholesale exposure. The frequency of credit rating in the case of wholesale exposure is generally annual, except in cases where more frequent ( say half yearly ) rating is warranted due to certain specific reasons ( for example, declining trend of asset quality. However retail credit may be subjected to a lower frequency (say once in two years) of rating as long as exposure continues to be under the standard asset category. [13]
  14. 14. Usual parameters for Credit Rating A. Wholesale exposure:For wholesale exposures, which are generally meant for the business activities of the obligor,the following parameters are usually important:Quantitative factors as on the last date of borrower‘s accounting year:1. Growth in sales/main income.2. Growth in operating profit and net profit.3. Return on capital employed.4. Total debt-equity ratio.5. Current ratio.6. Level of contingent liabilities.7. Speed of debt collection.8. Holding period of inventories/finished goods.9. Speed of payment to trade creditors.10. Debt-service coverage ratio (DSCR).11. Cash flow DSCR.12. Stress test ratio (variance of cash flow/DSCR compared with the preceding year).Qualitative factors are adjuncts to the quantitative factors, although they cannot be measuredaccurately—only an objective opinion can be formed. Nevertheless, without assessingquantitative factors, credit rating would not be complete. These factors usually include:1. How the particular business complies with the regulatory framework, standard and norms, if laid down.2. Experience of the top management in the various activities of the business.3. Whether there is a clear cut succession plan for key personnel in the organization.4. Initiatives shown by the top management in staying ahead of competitors.5. Corporate governance initiative.6. Honoring financial commitments.7. Ensuring end-use of external funds.8. Performance of affiliate concerns, if any.9. The organization‘s ability to cope with any major technological, regulatory, legal changes, etc.10. Cyclical factors, if any, the business and how they were handled by the management in the past year----macro level industry/trade analysis.11. Product characteristics----scope for diversification.12. Approach to facing the threat of substitutes. [14]
  15. 15. B. Retail ExposureIn undertaking credit rating for retail exposures----which consists mainly of lending forconsumer durables and housing finance, or any other form of need based financialrequirement of individuals/groups in the form of educational loans—the two vital issues needto be addressed: 1. Borrower‘s ability to service the loan. 2. Borrower‘s willingness at any point of time to service the loan and / or comply with the lenders requirement.The parameters for rating retail exposures are an admixture of quantitative and qualitativefactors. In both situations, the evaluator‘s objectivity in assessment is considered crucial forjudging the quality of exposure. The parameters may be grouped into four categories:1. PERSONAL DETAILS:a. Age: Economic life, productive years of life.b. Education qualifications: Probability of higher income and greater tendency to service and repay the loan.c. Marital status: Greater need of a permanent settlement, lesser tendency to default.d. Number of dependents: Impact on monthly outflow, reduced ability to repay.e. Mobility of the individual, location: Affects the borrower‘s repayment capacity and also his willingness to repay.2. EMPLOYMENT DETAILS:a. Employment status: Income of the self-employed is not as stable as that of a salaried person.b. Designation: People at middle management and senior management levels tend to have higher income and stability.c. Gross monthly income, ability to repay.d. Number of years in current employment / business, stable income.3. FINANCIAL DETAILS:a. Margin/percentage of financing of borrowers: more the borrower‘s involvement, less the amount of the loan.b. Details of borrower’s assts: land & building, worth of the borrower or security.c. Details of a borrower’s assets: bank balances and other securities, worth of the borrower or security.4. OTHER DETAILS ABOUT THE LOAN AND BORROWER:a. Presence and percentage of collateral---additional security.b. Presence of grantor---additional security. [15]
  16. 16. c. Status symbol/lifestyle (telephone, television, refrigerator, washing machine, two wheeler, car, cellular phone).d. Account relationship. As per RBI guidelines, all exposure (without any cut off limit) are to be rated.Approach to Credit Risk ModelsThe importance of credit risk modeling should be seen as the consequence of three factors.First, banks are becoming increasingly quantitative in their treatment of credit risk. Second,new markets are emerging in credit derivatives and the marketability of existing loans isincreasing through securitizations and the loan sales market. Third, regulators are concernedto improve the current system of bank capital requirements especially as it relates to creditrisk.The credit risk models are intended to aid banks in quantifying, aggregating and managingrisk across geographical and product lines. The outputs of these models also play increasinglyimportant roles in banks‘ risk management and performance measurement processes,including performance-based compensation, customer profitability analysis, risk basedpricing and active portfolio management and capital structure decisions. Credit riskmodelling may result in better internal risk management, and may have the potential to beused in the supervisory oversight of banking organisations.Since banks‘ credit exposures typically cut across geographical locations and product lines,the use of credit risk models offers banks a framework for examining this risk in a timelymanner, centralising data on global exposures and analysing marginal and absolutecontributions to risk. These properties of models may contribute to an improvement in abank‘s overall ability to identify measure and manage risk.In the measurement of credit risk, models may be classified along three different dimensions:the techniques employed the domain of applications in the credit process and the products towhich they are applied.TechniquesThe following are the more commonly used techniques:Econometric Techniques, such as linear and multiple discriminant analysis, multipleregression, logic analysis and probability of default, or the default premium, as a dependentvariable whose variance is explained by a set of independent variables. [16]
  17. 17. Neural networks are computer-based systems that use the same data employed in theeconometric techniques but arrive at the decision model using alternative implementations ofa trial and error method.Optimization models are mathematical programming techniques that discover the optimumweights for borrower and loan attributes that minimize lender error and maximize profits.Rule-based or expert systems are characterized by a set of decision rules, a knowledge baseconsisting of data such as industry financial ratios, and a structured inquiry process to be usedby the analyst in obtaining the data on a particular borrower.Hybrid Systems using direct computation, estimation, and simulation are driven in part by adirect causal relationship, the parameters of which are determined through estimationtechniques. An example of this is the KMV model, which uses an option theoreticformulation to explain default and then derives the form of the relationship throughestimation.Domain of applicationThese models are used in a variety of domains:a. Credit approval: Models are used by themselves or in conjunction with a judgemental override system for approving credit in the consumer lending business. The use of such models has expanded to include small business lending and first mortgage loan approvals. They are generally not used in approving large corporate loans, but they may be one of the inputs to a decision.b. Credit rating determination: Quantitative models are used in deriving ‗shadow bond rating‘ for unrated securities and commercial loans. These ratings in turn influence portfolio limits and other lending limits used by the institution. In some instances, the credit rating predicted by the model is used within an institution to challenge the rating as- signed by the traditional credit analysis process.c. Credit risk models may be used to suggest the risk premiums that should be charged in view of the probability of loss and the size of the loss given default. Using a mark-to- market model, an institution may evaluate the costs and benefits of holding a financial asset. Unexpected losses implied by a credit model may be used to set the capital charge in pricing.d. Financial early warning: Credit models are used to flag potential problems in the portfolio to facilitate early corrective action. [17]
  18. 18. e. Common credit language: Credit models may be used to select assets from a pool to construct a portfolio acceptable to investors or to achieve the minimum credit quality needed to obtain the desired credit rating. Underwriters may use such models for due diligence on the portfoliof. Collection strategies: Credit models may be used in deciding on the best collection or workout strategy to pursue. If, for example, a credit model indicates that a borrower is experiencing short-term liquidity problems rather than a decline in credit fundamentals, then an appropriate workout may be devised.Credit Risk modelsThere are four credit risk models that have achieved global acceptance as benchmarks formeasuring stand-alone as well as portfolio credit risk. The models have been explainedbelow- 1. Altman’s Z Score ManagementAltmans Z-score model is an application of multivariate discriminate analysis in credit riskmodeling. Financial ratios measuring profitability, liquidity, and solvency appeared to havesignificant discriminating power to separate the firm that fails to service its debt from thefirms that do not. These ratios are weighted to produce a measure (credit risk score) that canbe used as a metric to differentiate the bad firms from the set of good ones. Banks which usethese models will determine whether the loan applicant will receive the loan applied for ornot. Discriminate analysis is a multivariate statistical technique that analyzes a set ofvariables in order to differentiate two or more groups by minimizing the within-groupvariance and maximizing the between-group variance simultaneously. Altman started withtwenty-two variables (financial ratios) and finally five of them were found to be significant.The resulting discriminate function was Z = 0.012X 1 +0.014X 2+0.033X 3+ 0.006X 4 +0.999X5Where,X 1 =Working Capital / Total Assets,X 2 =Retained Earnings / Total Assets,X 3 =Earnings before Interest and Taxes / Total Assets,X 4 =Market Value of Equity / Book Value of Total Liabilities,X 5 =Sales / Total Assets.Altman found a lower bound value of 1.81 (failing zone) and an upper bound of 2.99 (non-failing zone) to be optimal. Any score in-between 1.81 and 2.99 was treated as being in thezone of ignorance. Banks which use these models will determine whether the loan applicantwill receive the loan applied for or not. [18]
  19. 19. 2. KMV ModelKMV Corporation has developed a credit risk model2 that uses information on stock pricesand the capital structure of the firm to estimate its default probability. This model is based onMertons (1973) analytical model of firm value. The starting point of this model is theproposition that a firm will default only if its asset value falls below a certain level (defaultpoint), which is a function of its liability. It estimates the asset value of the firm and its assetvolatility from the market value of equity and the debt structure in the option theoreticframework. Using these two values, a metric (distance from default or DfD) is constructedthat represents the number of standard deviations that the firms asset value is away from thedefault point. Finally, a mapping is done between the DfD values and actual default rate,based on the historical default experience. The resultant probability is called ExpectedDefault Frequency (EDF).In summary, EDF is calculated in the following three steps: 1. Estimation of asset value and asset volatility from equity value and volatility of equity return, 2. Calculation of distance from default: The DfD is calculated using the following formula:DfD= Asset value? Default point/ Asset value*Asset Volatility 3. Calculation of expected default frequency.The above two models were developed to measure the default risk associated with anindividual borrower. The Z-score model separates the bad firms or the firms in financialdistress from the set of good firms who are able to service their debt obligations in time. TheKMV model, on the other hand, estimates the default probability of each firm. Thus, theoutput of this model can be used as an input for risk based pricing mechanism and forallocation of economic capital.Risk evaluation is easy with Balanced Scorecard systemThe entire world is living on credit. Or it is more correct to say that the entire world lived oncredit several years ago just before the financial meltdown. However, the banking sectorseems to be gradually recovering, and some banks have already restored credit programs tomillions of customers.Issuing a loan or a credit is also associated with certain amount of risk. Indeed, a bank givesmoney to a person or organization hosing to get money back (plus interest). If the bank doesnot get its money on time, it faces certain problems. Besides, it is a very painful situation forborrower as well. Credit risks need to be always measured, even if this is very difficult to do. [19]
  20. 20. Use BSC System for proper loan risk managementBy assessing credit portfolio you are able to protect yourself against undesirable problemswith the borrowers and potential partners who may turn insolvent. What is the best tool toevaluate credit risks? Finance managers and credit experts recommend using ScorecardSystem to measure loan and credit risks. Armed with this tool you will be able to feel moreconfident in the changeable business world.Use reliable tools to measure credit risksSo, what are the most typical ways to use Balanced Scorecard system to measure credit risks?First of all this tool will be very helpful for bank managers. On the other hand BalancedScorecard system is a great tool to be used by borrowers who might change their decision to [20]
  21. 21. ask for a credit if they see that there might be risks of possible insolvency. So, as you can seecredit risk metric is helpful for both parties, as failure to pay credit is unpleasant for bothbank and borrower.As known, Balanced Scorecard system employs the principle of KPI evaluation. KPIs are keyperformance indicators, and they are different in different business spheres. So, what KPIsare measured in credit risk evaluation?Capital adequacy: This is actual amount of capital divided by EC amount and multiplies by100.Gross Debt Service Ratio: It is property taxes plus annual loan payment divided by GrossCustomer Income and multiplied by 100.Customer credit quality: This figure is based on credit history and reports.Sure, there are many more KPIs which directly or indirectly evaluate loan risks. But withBalanced Scorecard you will be able to measure the most important ones, thus getting themost accurate results.Risk evaluation systems will be surely helpful for all market participants who deal withissuing and taking loans.ConclusionThe aim of credit risk management is to reduce the Probability of loss from a credittransaction. Thus it is needed to meet the goals and objectives of the banks. It aims tostrengthen and increase the efficacy of the organization, while maintaining consistency andtransparency. It is predominantly concerned with probability of default. It is forward lookingin its assessment, looking, for instance, at a likely scenario of an adverse outcome in thebusiness.Thus we conclude that Credit risk management is not just a process or procedure. It is afundamental component of the banking function. The management of credit risk must beincorporated into the fiber of banks. Credit risk systems are currently experiencing one of thehighest growth rates of any systems area in financial services. Banks need to practice it insome form or the other. They need to understand the importance of credit risk managementand think of it as a ladder to growth by reducing their NPA‘s. Moreover they must use it as atool to succeed over their competition because credit risk management practices reduce riskand improve return on capital. [21]
  22. 22. References S.K Bagchi, ― Credit Risk Management‖, Jaico Publications Second Edition 2006 ―Guidance note on Credit risk management‖, RBI Publication, September 20, 2001. ―How do banks measure Credit Risk‖,( http://www.credit-risk- measurement.com/how-do-banks-measure-credit-risks.htm) [22]

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