Egypt post elections 2012 power structure-1

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Egypt post elections 2012 power structure-1

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Egypt post elections 2012 power structure-1

  1. 1. Post 2nd round Elections Power Structure in Egypt– Post Elections Draft 2.0This is a draft - please let me know your thoughts /comments so I can update the document
  2. 2.  The purpose of this document is to highlight some facts about the political power structure in Egypt, This document provides a map of the main power centers in Egypt including the Hire/Fire command chain post 2nd round elections and the latest announcements from SCAF, The document proposes some objectives for the post elections (transition) period, This document has the initial power center analysis (pre elections, as well as the two post elections scenarios (moved to the end) for reference.
  3. 3. Both are fighting to dominateEgypt for a long period..And both are welling to doWHATEVER It takes to controlEgypt
  4. 4. If you want the best for your future,If you want hope for your kids, and the best for Egypt.. Let us continue to balance the power and establish a creative conflict between the two powers
  5. 5. If you want the best for your future,If you want hope for your kids, and the best for Egypt.. Let us continue to balance the power and establish a creative conflict between the two powers
  6. 6.  Remember what we planned for before the Elections -“In any scenario, El-Thawra has to play a major role to defend the Loser and control the Winner’s power grab during the transition period.” Now, I think we should support SCAF to make sure they have enough power to stay in the game
  7. 7. Informal Powers (no hire /fire Authority) President Parliament Judicial Corrupt CorruptDefense Constitutional Hire Business officials CourtMinister Admin. Hire /Fire Court Fire only Constitutional MB Corrupt Panel (100 Person) Militia Police SCAF Ultras Melyoneyyat Prime Minister Sabba7y Private /A.Fotoh Media Interior National affairs Security Presidential Control Official Media Intelligence SCAF People/Revolution MB Hire or Fire Authority International /regional Influence is outside the focus of this analysis
  8. 8. Egypt’s Selected Scenario – Before SCAF AnnouncementThawra has to support SCAF This is the scenario we expected (if Moursi won) withoutto protect the constitution the recent SCAF announcements. In yellow the big yellowand people’s freedom (my bubble on the left was our plan if Moursi got elected.proposed plan – pre elections) Informal Powers President (no hire /fire Authority) Parliament Judicial Corrupt Corrupt Defense Constitutional Hire Business officials Court Minister Admin. Hire /Fire Court Fire only Constitutional MB Corrupt Panel (100 Person) Militia Police SCAF Ultras Melyoneyyat Prime Minister Sabba7y Private /A.Fotoh Media Interior National affairs Security Presidential Control SCAF and moving to MB Official Intelligence Media SCAF People/Revolution MB Hire or Fire Authority
  9. 9. Egypt’s Selected Scenario – After SCAF AnnouncementThawra has to support SCAF was proactive (did not wait for our support) toSCAF to protect protect themselves from MB (expected). I truly believe it is the best for Egypt. This is the power of the creativeminorities, constitution, an balance between the two powers. It puts both of them ind people’s freedom defensive mode that helps Egypt’s cause. Balance the Powers Informal Assumption* President Powers (no hire /fire Authority) Parliament Corrupt Corrupt Defense Business officials Minister MB Corrupt Militia Police SCAF Judicial Prime Minister Hire Admin. Constitutional Interior National Ultras MelyoneyyatConstitutional Court Court affairs Security Panel (100 Person) Sabba7y Private Official Intelligence Media /A.Fotoh Media •Assuming MB will get most of the seats in the coming re-elections Presidential Control SCAF and moving to MB SCAF People/Revolution MB Hire or Fire Authority
  10. 10.  Separate Military from State - to protect themselves Assigning the Constitution Council (to protect the new constitution, minorities, and freedom from MB) – to protect us I think we should support these changes and adding them to the permanent constitution. This is the only way (in my mind) we can maintain a meaningful power balance between MB and SCAF
  11. 11.  Please read more about the Turkish model and the involvement of the military in politics. And compare it to what SCAF has announced for Egypt.
  12. 12.  Our only hope for a better future is to always work/vote to maintain the power balance between MB and SCAF, Now as MB got the presidential seat our focus should be to support SCAF in separating the military from the state and controlling the Constitution, This get us closer to the Turkish Political Model which is one of very few successful political models in the Islamic world.
  13. 13. “They that fight for freedom undertake the noblest cause mankind can have at stake” The struggle for our Freedom will start with the voting
  14. 14. Thanks a lot to all of you who provided ideas/feedback and helpThe original (Pre Election) Scenario slides will follow for your reference
  15. 15. Pre Elections -Scenario One - SCAF In this case, Thawra has to support MB and stop SCAF from changing the Parliament Informal Powers (no hire /fire Authority) President Parliament Judicial Corrupt CorruptDefense Constitutional Hire Business officials CourtMinister Admin. Hire /Fire Court Fire only Constitutional MB Corrupt Panel (100 Person) Militia Police SCAF Ultras Melyoneyyat Prime Minister Sabba7y Private /A.Fotoh Media Interior National affairs Security Presidential Control Official Media Intelligence SCAF People/Revolution MB Hire or Fire Authority
  16. 16. Pre Elections - Scenario Two - MBThawra has to supportSCAF to protect theconstitution and people’sfreedom Informal Powers (no hire /fire Authority) President Parliament Judicial Corrupt Corrupt Defense Constitutional Hire Business officials Court Minister Admin. Hire /Fire Court Fire only Constitutional MB Corrupt Panel (100 Person) Militia Police SCAF Ultras Melyoneyyat Prime Minister Sabba7y Private /A.Fotoh Media Interior National affairs Security Presidential Control SCAF and moving to MB Official Intelligence Media SCAF People/Revolution MB Hire or Fire Authority

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