Data mining for baseball new ppt

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Data mining for baseball new ppt

  1. 1. Salford Systems Dan SteinbergMikhail Golovnya
  2. 2.  Data mining is the search for patterns in data using modern highly automated, computer intensive methods ◦ Data mining may be best defined as the use of a specific class of tools (data mining methods) in the analysis of data ◦ The term “search” is key to this definition, as is “automated” The literature often refers to finding hidden information in data
  3. 3. Data Mining Data Mining Cont.• Predictive • Statistics • OLAP Analytics • Computer science • CART• Machine Learning • Insurance • SVM• Pattern • Finance • NN Recognition • Marketing • CRISP-DM• Artificial • Robotics • CRM Intelligence • Biotech • KDD• Business • Sports Analytics • Etc. Intelligence• Data Warehousing
  4. 4.  Data guides the analysis, it is the “Alpha and Omega” of everything you do Analyst asks the right questions but makes no assumptions The success of data mining solely depends on the quality of available data ◦ Famous “Garbage In – Garbage Out” principle
  5. 5.  (Insert visual aid) In a nutshell: Use historical data to gain insights and/or predictions on the new data
  6. 6.  Any game is the ultimate and unambiguous source of the quality data ◦ This is very different from the data availability and quality in other areas of research However, there is no universal agreement on the best way of organizing and summarizing the results in a numeric form ◦ Large number of various game statistics available ◦ Common sense and game rules are at the core ◦ Heated debates on which stats best describe the potential for a future win
  7. 7.  (insert screenshot of Baseball-reference.com) Available from many sources, including the Internet Player level: summarize performance in a season, post season, and entire career Team level: wins and losses Game level: most detailed
  8. 8.  (insert Sean Lahman website screenshot) Widely known public database Gathers baseball stats all the way back to 1871 Will use parts of it to illustrate the potential of data mining
  9. 9.  Focusing on the 2010 regular season performance in both leagues Have access to the player stats for the entire season organized in a flat table Define a measure of the overall player success simply by having the team winning its division ◦ Thus 6 out of 30 participating teams in 2010 are declared as success Question: Which of the player stats are associated with the team winning the division?
  10. 10. Core Stats Derived Stats•AB-At Bats •AVG-Batting Average H/AB•R-Runs •TB-Total Bases•H-Hits B1+2x2B+3x3B+4xHR•2B-Doubles •SLG-Slugging TB/AB•3B-Triples •OBP-On Base Percentage•HR-Home Runs (H+BB+HBP)/(AB+BB+SF+HBP)•RBI-Runs Batted In •OPS-On Base Plus Slugging OBP+SLG•SB-Stolen Bases •…-Many more exist•CS-Caught Stealing•BB-Base on Balls•SO-Strikeouts•SF-Sacrifice Flies•HBP-Hit by pitch
  11. 11.  (insert scatter matrix) This is how the problem is usually attacked Each dot represents a single batter record for the whole 2010 season 1245 overall records 16 core stats Winning team batters are marked in red No obvious insights!
  12. 12.  Leo Breiman, Jerome Friedman, Richard Olshen and Charles Stone Starting with CART in 1984, laid the foundation for tree- based modeling techniques Conduct deep look into all available data Point out most relevant variables and features Automatically identify optimal transformations Capable of extracting complex patterns going way beyond the traditional “single performance at a time” approach
  13. 13.  (insert graph) 6 core batter stats were identified as most predictive About 20% of total variation can be directly associated with the batter stats The single plots show non-linear nature of many of the relationships Fine plot irregularities should be ignored Striking result: HR above 30 is associated with loosing the division Proceed by digging into pair-wise contribution plots
  14. 14.  (insert images) The colored area within each plot shows pairs that actually occur in the data Areas associated with contribution towards team win are marked in red Contributions towards team defeat are marked in blue
  15. 15.  (insert graphs) These two plots further highlight the rather unusual HR finding It is a well-known fact that batters aiming at a home run have higher number of strike- outs However, in 2010 regular season the HR- centered approach lead to a defeat!
  16. 16.  (insert graph) This plot represents two performance stats plotted against each other taken “as is” from the original data table Note the difficulty at discerning the identified HR X SO pattern visually because of “shadow” projections
  17. 17.  (Insert graphs)
  18. 18.  (Insert screen shot of Baseball-reference.com and standard pitching chart) Similar to batting stats Large number of derived stats exists
  19. 19. Core Stats Derived Stats•W-Wins •ERA-Earned Run Average•L-Losses 9xER/InningsPitched•H-Hits Allowed •DICE-Defense Independent•BFP-Batters Faced Component 3.0+(13HR+3(BB+HBP)- 2SO)/IP•R-Runs Allowed •FIP-Fielding Independent Pitching•HR-Home Runs Allowed 3.1+(13HR+3BB-2SO)/IP•WP-Wild Pitches •dERA-Defense Independent ERA 10-•IPOUTS-Outs Pitched line algorithm•SHO-Shutouts •CERA-Component ERA Long•BB-Base on Balls convoluted equation•SO-Strikeouts •…-Many more exist•ER-Earned Runs•HBP-Batters Hit by Pitch
  20. 20.  (Insert charts) Started by feeding a complete set of available 26 pitching stats for 2010 season performance Using top variable elimination followed by bottom variable elimination technique, reduced the list to only 8 important stats
  21. 21.  (inset graphs)
  22. 22.  (insert graphs) Keep the strikeouts high and the base on balls low to win the division!
  23. 23.  (insert graphs) Remember that these are pitchers not batters More wild pitches, more home runs allowed, more strikeouts=>the division is won!
  24. 24.  (insert graph) Conventional plot IGNORES other dimensions which effectively project on top of each other As a result, there is a lot of confusion on the plot, making it difficult to see any pattern In contrast, TN dependence plot shows the given pair contribution AFTER the influence of other dimensions has been eliminated
  25. 25.  (insert graphs) These plots represent the results of running conventional linear regression (LR) on the pitching data While the anomalous HR-effect is present, the model fails at the identifying the fine local nature of the phenomenon LR does not provide enough “resolution”
  26. 26.  It appears that in the 2010 regular season Home Run driven strategy did not work! At least, this is what the data tells us, further understanding will require experts in the field Core stats have good explaining potential once put into true multivariate modeling framework Conventional statistics approaches do not have enough “resolution” to see the real details Modern Data Mining helps identifying realized patterns and allows quick and efficient check of the usefulness of various performance measures available to a manager or researcher
  27. 27.  NEVER FALL FOR THESE Absolute Powers- data mining will finally find and explain everything Gold Rush- with the right tool one can rip the stock- market or predict World-Series winner to become obscenely rich Quest for the Holy Grail- search for an algorithm that will always produce 100% accurate models Magic Wand- getting a complete solution from start to finish with a single button push
  28. 28. The End

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