Feasibility Study- Bakery


Published on

Published in: Business, Travel

Feasibility Study- Bakery

  1. 1. Feasibility Study Identification and exploration of business scenarios Throughout the restaurant industry there is a wide variety of service styles. Determining which style of service best suits our talents and needs is the first process of opening a business. Each service style caters to specific markets and in order to ensure success our service style must please our target market. Fast Food, also known as quick service restaurants, caters to people in fast paced environments. This style of restaurant primarily serves food such as burgers, fries, chicken sandwiches, etc. that are made in bulk, wrapped, and kept warm until served. This doesn’t allow foods to be made fresh with high quality ingredients along with having the healthiest selection of food. Fast Food restaurants have minimal seating, if any as they might have a drive-thru option available. Our concept for Confections by Design Bakery is looking on building relationships with our customers on a personal level. The fast food service style does not fit this image. Our café plans to make our products fresh with healthy options, therefore fast food is not the best choice. Fast casual restaurants do not offer full tableside service but some places may have some aspects of tableside service available. This is a new and upcoming concept that is a combination between fast food and casual dining. Fast casual dining also focuses on healthier food options as well as fresh ingredients. These restaurants cater to people who would like to receive their food in a timely manner to get in and out of the restaurant rather than sitting around waiting for food and service, such as in casual or fine dining. This style of service would fit perfectly for the needs of our target market. Having a fast casual style allows customers to come at any time of day and receive quality food without having to commit a lot of time to dining. Casual Dining is a style of service where a restaurant serves moderately-priced food in a casual atmosphere. Casual dining restaurants provide full table service as well as a fully stocked bar. Our concept for Confections by Design Bakery is a smaller café instead of a full service restaurant, having a full casual dining restaurant would not be a realistic service to pursue. Fine dining restaurants are full service restaurants offering only the highest quality food, service, and experience. Even though Confections by Design Bakery will focus on providing quality food and service, making Confections by Design Bakery into a fine dining restaurant would be inappropriate. Especially considering the style of food we would provide and the target market we are trying to appeal to. Type and Quality of Products Marketed Confections by Design Bakery will consist of two different departments; the bakery and the sandwich bar. The bakery carries a variety of goods such as bagels, breads, muffins, pastries, cookies, and cupcakes. There will also be select sandwiches made from the bakery’s bagels and breads. The bakery department is generally geared toward the breakfast crowd and for those with a sweet tooth at any time of the day. The sandwich bar will appeal more to the lunch crowd, offering the freshest ingredients along with a healthy selection. Confections by Design Bakery will also offer a variety of beverages featuring espressos, coffee, juice, tea, and fountain beverages. How will the business make money?
  2. 2. Confections by Design Bakery will earn its profit by simply being the best café around. This is determined by not only the quality of the food but also by the customer service provided. Confections by Design Bakery plans on having a small, close, and well-trained staff that can meet the public and the company’s needs. Having a small staff creates a family like atmosphere with the café. By inviting the public into what we consider our home, makes the customer feel special and we are able to create strong, loyal, relationships with them. Technical Processes, Size, Location, Kinds of Inputs Confections by Design Bakery plans to have a generous size café, but nothing that is too large or overwhelming. There will be some comfortable indoor seating along with a few tables outside for when the weather is nice. The target markets for Confections by Design Bakery will be families and businesses. The best location for these markets would be the Kentlands. The Kentlands is an up and coming community with many families and now businesses within a 5 mile radius. Relationship to the surrounding geographical area Bringing our business into the Kentlands community is going to create competition for surrounding businesses similar to Confections by Design Bakery; however, this will bring more revenue into the community. Confections would be located in an area which already has buildings available instead of building a new place and requiring heavy construction in the area. This saves the community the hassle of having to work and travel around our business and hopefully make a good impression on the Kentlands community. Industry Description The restaurant industry is one of the seven service industries in the hospitality industry (other categories include lodging, event planning, theme parks, transportation, cruise line, and tourism industries). Food and beverage facilities are essentially retail stores that carry and prepare food items. They are facilities that prepare food and drink to order for customers in exchange for money. Meals can be consumed on premises, but restaurants also offer offsite delivery or carryout services. According to the statistics provided from the National Restaurant Association, there are approximately 970,000 food service locations nationwide with a projected sales of $632 billion in 2012; the typical sales is $1.7 billion per day (“Facts at a Glance”). The types of restaurants are categorized based upon menu style, preparation methods and pricing. The four major categories in the restaurant industry are fast food, fast casual, casual dining, and fine dining restaurants. Target markets in the restaurant industry are versatile; consumers can be categorized by age, food preference, cultural background etc. Some on the market segments includes young adults, seniors, tourists, vegetarians, business people, sports fans, lunch break crowd, happy hour crowd, etc. Our concept is fast casual, the type of restaurant that does not offer full table service but offers a friendlier atmosphere with higher quality of food. Most fast casual establishments offer counter service accompanied with food. The menu is usually limited and extends to over the counter displays with various options in the way the food is prepared. This restaurant concept was popularized in the mid 1990s; however, it did not become “trendy” until the 2010s. The reason behind this change in trends was because consumers started to prefer food service that offers healthier food options compared to fast food and with a relatively low cost as compared to casual and fine dining. The success of a restaurant is based on a variety of factors that include food quality, customer service, location, menu price, etc. One of these factors is trend which can be defined as the direction in which something tends to move. In the restaurant industry, it is focused more
  3. 3. on the kinds of food being served. The National Restaurant Association identifies the trend in the next year or two to focus on children’s nutritional menus and sourcing ingredients from local farms. Consumers nowadays focus more on the nutritional value of food and how ingredients are harvested. Factors that contribute to this trend including the ingredients’ freshness, methods which they are grown, and the distance the ingredients have traveled before they are made onto the table. The Restaurant Life Cycle The restaurant life cycle of restaurants has four stages: Introduction, growth, maturity and decline. The introductory stage is when a new product or service enters the marketplace, in this case our bakery cafe. The nature of hospitality products is typically intangible which can make market testing difficult before introduction. Ideally the product should be developed on the basis of consumer research. This stage may also be one of high costs. Typically, the introduction often begins with a soft opening that may be a few days to a few weeks before the official opening. Word of mouth brings some customers or small groups to “test” the products and services offered in the restaurant. The growth stage of the restaurant industry differs from manufacturing industry; if the menu items in a newly opened restaurant are not successful, the managers will simply take the items off the menu and offer new ones. In manufacturing industry, if a product is not successful then the entire plan is terminated. The growth stage of the hospitality unit is one of excitement and disappointment. Sales may be growing monthly or there may not be enough seats in the restaurants. Customers who tried the facility in the introductory stage have told others who are now trying it. Business is booming, but there are many marketing issues at hand. It is during the growth stage that the previous relationship with marketing pays off. Consumers come back for the food and service and they will tell others about it. The growth stage is also a time of product refinement. Continuous customer research and feedback should assist in eliminating flaws and fine tuning our products to the target market. An important note during this stage is that it is not a good time to raise product prices. The mature stage of the product life cycle can continue for a long time or it can end quickly. If the product has successfully and correctly gone through the introductory and growth stages, the market should now be pretty well in place. In the mature stage, the restaurant has to run harder just to stand still. With other competitions sharing the same target market, the concept and facility could be getting old. The best way to avoid this is to keep and increase the loyal customers during the growth stage. The best way to stay in business is to stay close to the customer, find new markets, seek and solve customers’ problems, and do it better than the competition.
  4. 4. If the restaurant is not maintained during the mature stage it will enter the decline stage. For example, the menu items may lose their freshness, consumers may change, or it is time for the restaurant to go. Decline has a tendency to progress faster than growth stage. During the beginning of this stage, managers face declining revenue by cutting expenses. The managers may decrease the front and back of the house employees to cut labor costs, use cheaper raw ingredients, and decrease menu prices. However, these actions cause more revenue decline and result in unhappy customers, which results in even more revenue decline (Shoemaker). Industry Competitiveness According to the National Restaurant Association 2012 Restaurant Industry Fact Sheet, seven out of ten eating and drinking establishments are single unit operations. This means that franchises make up almost thirty percentage of the industry. The first year success rate for restaurants is roughly ten percent. However, since franchises have better operation systems and are well known for their reputations, their success rate has increased to forty percent. The 2009 average unit sales were $837,000 for full service restaurants and $738,000 for quick service restaurants. Although the unit sales for full service are higher, the profit margin may not be as high as compared to quick service restaurants. Quick service restaurants serve food at lower prices and have high guest turnover ratios. Their labor costs and food and beverage costs are also lower which means that their profit margin may also be higher. The major competitors at the Kentlands in Gaithersburg are Panera Bread, Chipotle, Cosi Sandwich, Liz Bakery, and Whole Foods Market. Panera Bread, Cosi Sandwich and Liz Bakery are considered direct competitors while Chipotle and Whole Foods are indirect competitors. Panera Bread is a chain of franchised bakery cafes categorized as quick service restaurants in the United States and Canada. Panera started in 1981 when the co-CEO purchased the St. Louis Bread Company with twenty of its cafes in the area. By 1999, Panera had expanded into a national restaurant, operating over fifteen hundred cafes over forty states. Panera competes on many levels including fast casual dining and specialty foods. Its main competitors include McDonald’s, Starbucks Coffee, and Subway. To stay profitable in the highly competitive restaurant industry, Panera regularly reviews and revises their menu to sustain the interest of regular customers, satisfying changing customer preferences and being responsive to various seasons of the year. Panera develops a competitive advantage in changing their menu over competitors who do not change their menu frequently and customers often lose interest in their menu offerings. Cosi is an American restaurant chain that primarily offers gourmet sandwiches and salads. The concept was based on a cafe in Paris, France. Founded in 1996, they’re all over the World with one hundred and four locations just in the United States. These restaurants also feature a full service espresso bar and many chains may even serve alcohol. One attraction is that all Cosi’s breads are baked in an open flame oven in full view of the customers. The menu also serves breakfast items such as bagels, salads, soups, and desserts. The top competitors of Cosi on a national and local basis are Panera Bread Company, Starbucks Corporation, and ABP Corporation. Liz Bakery is an independent bakery specialized in custom cakes such as wedding cakes, quinceaneras, sculpted cakes and cupcakes. We consider Liz Bakery as our direct competitor because our cake selections are similar to their offerings. One advantage Liz Bakery has over ours is its reputation; the bakery has been in the Kentlands area longer than we will have been and it has a loyal customer base. Our competitive advantage over them is that we offer a variety of specialty items. There are two other establishments, Whole Foods Market and Chipotle, which are considered our indirect competitors. Whole Foods Market has almost everything we sell; what
  5. 5. distinguishes it from our bakery cafe is that Whole Foods is a market. Our bakery cafe also offers the experience that consumers will not find in Whole Foods. And as for Chipotle, it is also considered as a fast casual dining restaurant. One of its competitive advantages is that it has many target markets with many loyal customers. Bargaining Power The suppliers of ingredients, equipment, labor, and expertise services provided have power over the restaurant industry. The bargaining power is the price for the materials and services provided. The restaurant industry has many suppliers that vary in different sizes and specialties. Restaurant owners will choose the suppliers who can correspond to their needs. One indication that suppliers have bargaining power is that the suppliers can contract with only certain independent or franchise operations and can set the amount of ingredients the operation must order. Small independent units may not be able to purchase from certain vendors because they do not have the financial power to purchase in large quantities. If our bakery cafe offers menu items that are ingredient driven (for example, fresh local produce and proteins), this will increase supplier power as the suppliers can demand higher prices for their products and increase our food cost. The Bargaining power of customers plays an important role in the restaurant industry. When the buyer power is strong, the buyers can certainly set the price they are willing to afford. Consumers of fast casual restaurants will like to have high quality food and a better experience offered at a reasonable price. It is dangerous for fast casual restaurants to raise prices because of the low prices offered by competitors and the expectations of their consumers. One of the reasons that fast casual restaurants were able to succeed during the recent recession is because the owners were able to maintain reasonable prices to offer their consumers. The threat of new potential entrants in fast casual restaurants is extremely high. There are fewer barriers for entry into this market because it requires relatively low capital. Restaurantowner.com identifies that an approximate cost to start a restaurant business is $225,000. Another factor that can influence more potential entrants is the possibility to create a better dining experience. Fast casual restaurants not only need to offer a better dining experience, but they also need to serve good food. If the restaurants are able to revolutionize their consumers’ experience, it will be extremely easy to enter into the fast casual segment. To succeed in this extremely competitive market, a fast casual restaurant must have a competitive advantage. A restaurant can obtain this advantage by lowering menu prices while creating product differentiation, exploiting relationships with suppliers, and distributing products differently. It is reasonable to assume that most fast casual restaurants offer similar menu items in the same price range. The restaurant owner must lower their menu prices and/or improve customer service. Competition increases in this industry because the number of restaurants is constantly increasing and they are battling for the same group of customers. A fast casual restaurant should always try to increase their revenue by expanding their targeting market. Market Potential The product we offer will be sold in both the product and service market; our menu items such as sandwiches, baked goods, and drinks are the products and our dining experience is the service. The demand for fast casual restaurants in the restaurant industry has been constantly growing. This concept meets the customers’ demand of “eating on the run” and provides healthier options. In recent years consumers favor healthy food options. The food quality and preparation methods at the traditional fast food restaurants have been scrutinized in recent years. The food
  6. 6. options provided in these establishments have been shown to have negative health consequences. However, consumers’ desire of healthier food options does not supersede the need of quick service dining. Consumers prefer food that can be eaten quickly during a lunch break or picked up on the way home. Fast casual restaurants have found a niche where the consumers’ needs of healthy food overlap with quick service. This is an opportunity for restaurateurs because fast casual restaurants are targeting two potential markets; quick service and casual dining. Although restaurants in this category do not offer full tableside service, their food quality is just as high and the food takes shorter time to prepare. The price for a typical meal is anywhere from eight to fifteen dollars. Although this price is higher than what is offered at fast food restaurants, consumers are willing to pay more for higher quality and healthier food. In order to become a “branded product” our restaurant concept must become a franchise. Franchising is the practice of using a firm’s business model. The franchisee must pay a fee to the franchisor in order to use the franchisor’s business concept, logo, menu, design, etc. It is less risky than independent operations because a franchisor’s concept has been proven to be successful. To be established as a successful operation, a business must successfully operate for a few years to prove to potential clients that its concept is worth purchasing. According to Los Angeles Times, the market share of fast casual dining establishments in early 2012 was at six percent. Although the market share is not as high as the other kinds of food establishments, it is the only segment in the restaurant industry that has shown growth in the last five years. Access to Market Outlets Our target markets are mainly focused on families and businesses. To promote and advertise our products and services we are planning on using a variety of social media, including Facebook, groupons, direct mails, etc. Our plan is to use approximately 3.5% of our monthly income for advertising.
  7. 7. The Restaurant Industry Distribution System Sources Intermediaries (Growers, manufacturers, and processors) (Middlemen) Retailers (Restaurants) Consumers (Guests) The industry distribution system has the following components: sources, intermediaries, retailers, and consumers. A source is a supplier at the beginning of a product’s channel of distribution. For instance, a farmer is a source our restaurant can use for fresh fruits in our baked goods. This supplier typically sells items to an intermediary that resells them to hospitality operations. Intermediaries are also known as vendors, which retailers such as restaurants and grocery stores order items from. Items retailers order from vendors are in larger quantities and are offered in wholesale prices. The only way consumers can purchase these items is through the retailers (“Product Life Cycle”). Proposed Business Concept Our proposed business will be a small bakery located at The Kentlands in Gaithersburg, MD. The Kentlands are less than 5 miles from I-270 and around 25 miles from downtown Washington DC. There is plenty of public transportation accessible from this location. Our selected location allows us to access nearly two thousand homes in the Kentlands neighborhood along with numerous office buildings within a 5 mile radius. The main utilities used in these properties are gas, power, and water. In order to obtain a food service facility license a menu, HACCP flow charts for each menu item, insurance documentation, and a set of complete plans are ready to be submitted to the Maryland Department of Health and Human Services. Our bakery will be offering a variety of products that use a number of high quality ingredients from local bakery suppliers. We have selected to use local suppliers because of their quite competitive pricing and high quality ingredients when compared to other imported suppliers. Ingredients and Vendors Major suppliers of local raw materials are: Restaurant depot George R. Ruhl & Son, INC (Bakery supply) Hoffman’s Meats (Deli supply)
  8. 8. Costo Sam’s Club Some ingredients for basic items are listed below: Ingredients Flour High Gluten Flour Eggs Baking Powder Butter Sugar Cream Yeast Baking Soda Chocolate Milk Lettuce Tomatoes Sprouts Onions Avocado Bell Peppers Ham Turkey Breasts Pepperoni Sausage Provolone Cheese Cheddar Cheese Swiss Cheese Mozzarella Cheese Pepperjack Cheese Horseradish Dijon Honey Mustard Mayonnaise Thousand Island Canned Tuna Pickles Olives Vinegar Bacon Coffee Beans Tea Bags Coke Products Apple Juice Orange Juice Lemonade Milk Unit price $ 13.50 /50lb $ 15.00 /50lb $ 11.50 /90ct $ 6.00 /5lb $ 9.00 /lb $ 25.00 /50lb $ 4.00 /qt $ 3.00 /lb $ 13.00 /lb $ 184.00 /40lb $ 2.89 /gallon $ 2.39 /2 heads $ 6.00 /3 lb $ 2.24 /box $ 5.37 /10lb $ 4.47 /5ct $ 6.98 /2lb $ 6.27 /lb $ 7.49 /lb $ 5.69 /lb $ 3.57 /lb $ 3.04 /lb $ 4.94 /lb $ 4.94 /lb $ 3.38 /lb $ 4.94 /lb $ 3.35 /bottle $ 2.44 /bottle $ 6.73 /bottle $ 6.48 /bottle $ 8.46 /10cans $ 4.24 /jar $ 3.49 /jar $ 1.79 /bottle $ 3.13 /lb $ 14.88 /bag $ 4.98 /box $ 0.31 /can $ 0.50 /bottle $ 0.50 /bottle $ 0.42 /bottle $ 0.72 /bottle Quantity 5 5 6 1 50 5 15 2 2 2 6 30 8 4 3 8 4 15 15 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 6 6 6 6 3 2 2 1 5 24 3 192 48 48 48 48 Total Cost $ 67.50 $ 75.00 $ 69.00 $ 6.00 $ 450.00 $ 125.00 $ 48.00 $ 6.00 $ 26.00 $ 368.00 $ 17.34 $ 71.70 $ 48.00 $ 8.96 $ 16.11 $ 35.76 $ 27.92 $ 94.05 $ 112.35 $ 85.35 $ 35.70 $ 30.04 $ 49.40 $ 49.40 $ 33.80 $ 49.40 $ 20.10 $ 14.64 $ 40.38 $ 38.88 $ 25.38 $ 8.48 $ 6.98 $ 1.79 $15.65 $357.12 $14.94 $ 59.52 $ 24.00 $ 24.00 $ 20.16 $ 34.56
  9. 9. Business Ownership A partnership between four managing owners has been formed to run our bakery. Since the four owners have managed restaurants in the area, they are familiar with local buying sources, suppliers, and methods. The managers also have leadership skills and have the ability to supervise personnel while reflecting the style and character of the bakery. Two full time bakers are needed to maintain the operation of the baked goods. They have to work early in the morning to begin preparing our fresh baked breads, cakes, bagels, and pastries. We will need two cake decorators, one full-time and one part-time, to manage all special ordered cakes and cupcakes. The lead cake decorator needs to arrive early in the morning to begin preparing items for the morning and creating a list for the afternoon. The part-time cake decorator will help with the afternoon and weekend shifts. Five clerks are required to maintain the daily operation; order taking, making sandwiches/soups, busing tables, and keeping dining area clean. Three Prep workers are needed for preparation of sandwiches and soups, at the same time keep working areas organized. Prospective employees are students from Montgomery College, University of Maryland and residents from the local area. Wages and Job Descriptions The following are the wage rates and skill level requirements for all the positions: Job Title Wage Rate Skill Level Owners/ Managers $ 4,000.00/month Bakers $10.00/hour Cake Decorators $10.00/hour Clerks $7.50/hour Prep workers $7.50/hour At least 2 year experience in management / supervising positions in hospitality industry. Formal culinary schools trained in baking and pastry field Able to work in early morning shift Able to work alone under pressure 2 years prior experience Formal culinary schools trained in baking and pastry field Able to work in early morning shift Able to work alone under pressure 2 years prior experience Proficiency in Math Proficiency in handling money transaction Proficiency in using a calculator and automated cash register Must be able to speak, read, and write in English 1 year prior experience Proficiency in Math Proficiency in handling money transaction Proficiency in using a calculator and automated cash register Must be able to speak, read, and write in English 1 year prior experience
  10. 10. Financial Studies The main monthly expenses for our bakery is a rent payment at $2,720 a month in The Kentlands on Main Street, a payment on our equipment loan, and accounts payable to our vendors. The building was previously used as a retail store and is 960 square feet. We will need to renovate inside and purchase or lease all equipment needed to run a bakery. This listing was found on Showcase.com and advertised storefronts in The Kentlands and the surrounding areas. Some of our main purchases will include, but are not limited to: Double rack ovens Proof box Microwave Pastry racks and sheet pans Ranges Prep tables Walk in freezer Walk in refrigerator Reach in refrigerator Ice maker Mixers Dough sheeter Refrigerated display cases Three tub sink Sandwich station Espresso machine Soda machine Bread slicer Scales Table and chairs $39,108 (three) $34,589 $942 (two) $500 (20) $2,535 $600 (4 maple tops) 1193 (3 stainless steel) $6,391 $5,051 $2,981 (two) $1,683 $13,831 (floor model) 1,340 (2 countertop model) $6,482 $7,579 (two) $829 $3,618 $8,100 $4,115 $2,332 $600 (two) $337 (five) Our estimated main equipment costs are $251,428. We will add approximately $100,000 to this estimate to cover the costs of renovation and any unforeseen extra equipment needed. If there are any funds leftover we will roll them into the purchase of supplies and ingredients. We will need approximately $25,000 for those purchases. Equipment prices were estimated from various commercial kitchen websites such as galasource.com and Bakeryequipment.com. Our menu was designed by one of the founding partners. The creative edge from comes from her extensive restaurant background from working in various restaurants and bakeries in the past. She spent a lot of time researching market prices and comparing competitors’ prices from Panera Bread and Einstein Bros Bagels. Our forecasted sales for any given week within the first year are: Food Sales Turkey Bistro Ham and Swiss Mix Avocado Club Mex The Firecracker The Italian Bistro The Veggie Mex Number 28 17 35 42 28 18 Cost 5.59 5.49 6.29 5.89 6.39 5.29 Sales 156.52 93.33 220.15 247.38 178.92 95.22
  11. 11. The Tuna Avalanche Cup of Soup Bowl of Soup Bread Bowl Soup Side Salads Breakfast Club Sausage Lovers Simply Eggs Single Bagel Half a dozen Bagels Baker’s dozen Bagels Bag of Bagels Tub of Cheese Assorted Breads Assorted Pastries Assorted Muffins Cookies One Cupcake Half a dozen Cupcakes Dozen Cupcakes Catered Cakes Total Food Sales Beverage Sales Reg Coffee Large Coffee Reg Tea Large Tea Reg Soda Large Soda Juices Milk Cappuccino Cinnamon Latte Vanilla Latte Caramel Latte Mocha Latte White Mocha Latte Chai Tea Espresso Shot Total Beverage Sales Total Sales 14 52 35 28 70 53 35 28 125 62 35 38 37 125 150 150 175 175 70 53 52.5 5.39 1.89 2.99 4.19 1.99 4.09 3.89 3.19 0.99 5.59 9.99 13.99 2.89 3.69 1.99 1.59 1.39 1.39 6.59 11.99 25 75.46 98.28 104.65 117.32 139.3 216.77 136.15 89.32 123.75 346.58 349.65 531.62 106.93 461.25 298.5 238.5 243.25 243.25 461.3 635.47 1312.5 7321.32 37 49 26 33 80 90 31 25 21 28 28 31 36 36 32 28 1.69 1.99 1.49 1.79 1.59 1.89 2.69 1.79 2.99 3.09 3.09 3.19 3.29 3.29 2.99 1.25 62.53 97.51 38.74 59.07 127.2 170.1 83.39 44.75 62.79 86.52 86.52 98.89 118.44 118.44 95.68 35 1385.57 8706.89
  12. 12. Collectively our forecasted sales for one week are $7,394.39 from our standing menu and approximately $1312.50 from our catered menu of special order cakes for a total of $8,706.89. Respectively our estimated forecasted sales per month are $37,700.83 and per year is $452,758.28. We should budget approximately 3.5% of our monthly sales from our menu for advertising, which is approximately $1318 a month. Each month our sales will fluctuate between items sold. For example in the winter time we will sell more hot coffee then cold drinks, whereas in the summer time we will sell more coffee as iced or frozen drinks. These are simply the averages estimated for any given week or month within our first year of being open. By the end of the third year, we hope to double our sales volume. Estimated Start-Up Costs and Contributions The partners will each contribute a set amount towards the investment of the company at $15,000 each. With $60,000 in capital, we would need research possible banks for a loan amount of approximately $295,000 for our renovation needs. All ingredients and supplies for our bakery will be placed on accounts payable to the suppliers after a down payment of 5% of the sales to each supplier. We plan on having a staff of approximately 12 employees, two bakers, two cake decorators, three prep cooks, and five clerks. The bakers and lead cake decorator will be employed full time while the other workers will be employed part time. Estimated wages for our employees will be approximately $5,200 each biweekly pay period. We will look into various local banks for a business loan for our equipment and renovations. Banks based locally generally like to help out the community in which they do business in. The Bank of America, Capital One Bank, M&T Bank, and PNC are the major local banks in the area. We will arrange meetings with each bank to see who has the best offer the fits our needs. We are hoping to find financing around 4.25% for a long term goal. Break Even Analysis Our estimated sales for one month are $37,700 with a food cost percentage of 25% putting our cost of sales at $9,672. Our estimated fixed costs are the loan payment at $3,500, rent payment at $2,720, estimated depreciation costs of $3,457, and insurance payment of $167. This comes to a total of $9,844 in fixed costs. Our estimated variable costs are cost of sales at $9,672, wages at $11,258, advertising at $1,318, utilities at $450, and payroll taxes at $1,352 for a total of $24,050 in variable costs. Our variable cost percentage would be about 64%, giving us a contribution margin of 36%. The formula for the breakeven point is FC / (100% - VC% or 1 - VC) = 9844 / .36 = $27,344. Our bakery would need to make $27,344 in sales in order to break even each month. Estimated Financial Statements Following are the estimated financial statements for the first months to the end of our first year in business. We will use these statements to forecast sales and obtain market research to continue to improve our business. We have an estimated depreciation rate of 16.5% over a course of ten years for our equipment. Our estimated interest rate on our loan from the bank is 4.25% over the course of 15 years. The purpose of forecasting financial statements is so the owners can make budget plans for the first few months after opening. Once the business has been opened, the forecasted statements can be replaced with actual data. We can compare our estimates to our data recorded from the first few months to see if we are headed in the right direction. We will make adjustments where needed to ensure we stay as close to our target goals as possible.
  13. 13. Balance Sheet Ending of our first month ASSETS Current Cash Inventory Accounts Receivable Total Current Assets Noncurrent Furniture Equipment Prepaid Insurance Total Noncurrent Assets $60,000.00 7,297.23 10,715.77 78,013.00 7,664.00 243,761.00 2,000.00 253,425.00 Total Assets LIABILITIES Current Accounts Payable Wages Utilities Advertising Current Portion LT Debt Total Current Liabilities Noncurrent Loan Payable Less Current Portion Due Total Noncurrent Liabilities Total Liabilities EQUITY Owner's Capital Total Equity Total Liabilities and Equity $331,438.00 $7,600.00 11,258.00 450.00 1,318.00 3,500.00 24,126.00 295,000.00 2,500.00 292,500.00 316,626.00 14,812.00 14,812.00 $331,438.00
  14. 14. Income Statement Ending of our First Year REVENUE Food Sales Beverage Sales Total Revenue COST OF SALES Cost of Food Cost of Beverage Total Cost of Sales $380,708.64 72,049.64 $452,758.28 95,177.16 20,894.40 116,071.56 Gross Profit OPERATING EXPENSES Payroll Payroll Taxes Marketing Utilities Total Operating Expenses 336,686.72 135,200.00 16,224.00 15,816.00 5,400.00 172,640.00 INCOME BEFORE FIXED EXPENSES FIXED EXPENSES Loan Rent Depreciation Insurance Total Fixed Expenses NET INCOME 164,046.72 42,000.00 32,640.00 41,485.00 2,000.00 118,125.00 $45,921.72
  15. 15. Work Cited "Cosi, Inc. Competition." Cosi, Inc. Names of Competitors. Hoover's Inc, n.d. Web. 16 Oct. 2012. <http://www.hoovers.com/companyinformation/cs/competition.Cosi_Inc.ee1bf83aebf61766.html>. CoStar Realty Information, Inc. "SHOWCASE Your Commercial Property Listings!" Commercial Property Listings. CoStar Realty Information, Inc, 1997-2012. Web. 17 Oct. 2012. <http://www.showcase.com/>. Costo Wholesale. (n.d.). Retrieved 10 8, 2012. <www.costco.com>. “Facts at a Glance." Research & Insights: Facts. N.p., n.d. Web. 17 Oct. 2012. <http://www.restaurant.org/research/facts/>. Feinstein, Andrew Hale, and John M. Stefanelli. Purchasing: Selection and Procurement for the Hospitality Industry. New York: John Wiley and Sons, 2005. Print. "Fresh Bagels, Bagel Sandwiches, Coffee & Espresso | Einstein Bros Bagels." Fresh Bagels, Bagel Sandwiches, Coffee & Espresso | Einstein Bros Bagels. Einstein Noah Restaurant Group, Inc, 2012. Web. 17 Oct. 2012. <http://www.einsteinbros.com/>. "Galasource | Service. Period!" Restaurant Equipment Supply. Galasource Ventures, 20032012. Web. 17 Oct. 2012. <http://www.galasource.com/>. George R Ruhl & Son, Inc. (n.d.). Retrieved 10 8, 2012. <www.grruhl.com>. Hoffman's Quality Meats. (n.d.). Retrieved 10 8, 2012. <http://www.hoffmanmeats.com>. "Home Products Bakery Equipment." Bakery Equipment at Bakery Equipment.com. Bakery Equipment.com, Inc, 2000-2002. Web. 17 Oct. 2012. <http://www.bakeryequipment.com/bakery-equipment/bakery-equipment.htm>. Hsu, Tiffany. "Fast-casual Restaurants Gobble up Market Share." Los Angeles Times. Los Angeles Times, 22 Dec. 2011. Web. 16 Oct. 2012. <http://articles.latimes.com/2011/dec/22/business/la-fi-fast-casual-20111222>. Kentlands. (n.d.). Retrieved 10 7, 2012. <http://www.kentlandsusa.com>. Montgomery County Census. (n.d.). Retrieved 10 8, 2012. <http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/24/24031.html>. "Panera Bread › Home." Panera Bread › Home. Panera Bread, 1999-2012. Web. 17 Oct. 2012. <http://www.panerabread.com/>. "Panera Bread Company Case Study." Espire Marketing. Espire Marketing, 16 Apr. 2010. Web. 16 Oct. 2012. <http://www.espiremarketing.org/panera-bread-company-case-study/>.
  16. 16. "Product Life Cycle." Product Life Cycle. Internet Center for Management and Business Administration, n.d. Web. 17 Oct. 2012. <http://www.quickmba.com/marketing/product/lifecycle/>. Sam's Club. (n.d.). Retrieved 10 8, 2012. <http://www.samsclub.com>. Shoemaker, Stowe, and Margaret Shaw. Marketing Essentials in Hospitality and Tourism: Foundations and Practices. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson/Prentice Hall, 2008. Print. "Table C.— BEA Rates of Depreciation, Service Lives, Declining-BalanceRates, and HultenWykoff Categories." Table C.— BEA Rates of Depreciation, Service Lives,DecliningBalance Rates, and Hulten-Wykoff Categories. Hulten-Wykoff Category, n.d. Web. 17 Oct. 2012. <http://www.bea.gov/scb/account_articles/national/wlth2594/tableC.htm>.