Apricot case-study

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What are the odds of a colleague in Cape Town eating an apricot at the same time as one in Johannesburg? Our genius developer did the math...

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Apricot case-study

  1. 1. t eating c ase studyAprico ds?What are the od
  2. 2. T hank yousThanks Monty for the Apricots and Bananas
  3. 3. And so mehow....Somehow...
  4. 4. SomehowCindy also ate an apricot! (in Cape Town)
  5. 5. What are the odds?● Assume 7 people at Saidwot ate a fruit today (not really, just assume)● And assume there are only 15 different fruits people like to buy (again, just assume)● What are the odds that at least 2 people ate the same fruit today?
  6. 6. Guess?What are the odds? 90%? 50%? 10%? 1%?
  7. 7. The PairsFirst we need to know how many distinct pairswe can form with 7 people:Its 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 = 21 believe it or yes!In other words (7 * 6)/2 pairs
  8. 8. I dont eat that!Now, what are the chances of someone eatinga different fruit from what you ate?Its: 1 - (14/15) = 0.93333333 = 93%Thats very high!
  9. 9. So?So we have 21 pairs and 93% chance that 2different people are eating 2 different fruits.
  10. 10. CombineNow if we combine these numbers we get:(.93333)21 = 0.2348 = 23.5%Thats 23.5% probability of 2 people eatingdifferent fruits.
  11. 11. T hereforeThere must be 100% - 23.5% = 76.5% chancesof 2 people eating the same fruit.At Saidwot today!
  12. 12. Thats As suming...Assuming all the wrong assumptions we hadinitially are true.Correct me because Im wrong.

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