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  1. 1. VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION Reference notes from UNFCCC & IPCC Resource material - Dr. N. Sai Bhaskar Reddy CEO, GEO
  2. 2. Vulnerability <ul><li>Vulnerability to climate change is the risk of adverse things happening </li></ul><ul><li>Vulnerability is a function of three factors: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Exposure </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sensitivity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Adaptive capacity </li></ul></ul>
  3. 3. Adaptation <ul><li>“ adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm of exploits beneficial opportunities” (Third Assessment Report, Working Group II) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Notice includes “actual” (realized) or “expected” (future) changes in climate </li></ul></ul>
  4. 4. Adaptation (continued) <ul><li>Two types of adaptation: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Autonomous adaptation or reactive adaptation tends to be what people and systems do as impacts of climate change become apparent </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Anticipatory or proactive adaptation are measures taken to reduce potential risks of future climate change </li></ul></ul>
  5. 5. Sustainable Livelihoods
  6. 6. Scenarios <ul><ul><ul><li>Estimation of future agricultural responses to climate change is usually based on scenarios. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>The scenarios are essential for evaluating possible future (?) conditions, but they do not necessarily describe the conditions that will actually occur. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>They should be used to explore possible adaptive measures. </li></ul></ul></ul>
  7. 7. Biophysical impact <ul><li>Changes in crop growth conditions </li></ul><ul><li>Changes in optimal conditions for livestock production </li></ul><ul><li>Changes in precipitation and the availability of water resources </li></ul><ul><li>Changes in agricultural pests </li></ul><ul><li>Changes in soil fertility and erosion </li></ul>
  8. 8. The combination of biophysical and socio-economic effects can result in: <ul><li>Changes in the mix of crops grown, and hence in the type of farming and rural land use </li></ul><ul><li>Changes in production, farm income, and rural employment </li></ul><ul><li>Changes in rural income, contribution to national GDP, and agricultural export earnings. </li></ul>
  9. 9. Household and village models <ul><li>(Semi-commercial economies) </li></ul><ul><li>to secure a minimum level of income </li></ul><ul><li>strategies developed to reduce the negative effects of crop yield changes or coping strategies like during drought </li></ul><ul><li>As with farm models - borrow from existing studies, adapting them to consider changes in climate rather than variations in weather. </li></ul>
  10. 10. Scaling up the vulnerability and adaptation results to regional level : <ul><li>Regional assessments => </li></ul><ul><li>+ input provided by regional planners and economists </li></ul><ul><li>+ local data </li></ul><ul><li>+ discussions with a full range of stakeholders </li></ul>
  11. 11. Farm-based adaptation measures <ul><li>Choice of crop </li></ul><ul><li>Use of drought or heat resistant varieties, Use of pest resistant varieties, Use of quicker (or slower) maturing varietiesAltering mix of crops </li></ul><ul><li>Tillage and time of operations </li></ul><ul><li>Change planting dateTerracing, ridging, Land levelling, Reduced tillage, Deep ploughing, Change fallow and mulching practices, Alter cultivations, Switch seasons for cropping </li></ul>
  12. 12. Farm-based adaptation measures <ul><li>Crop husbandry </li></ul><ul><li>Alter row and plant spacing, Intercropping, </li></ul><ul><li>Irrigation and water harvesting </li></ul><ul><li>Introduce new irrigation schemes to dryland areas, Improve irrigation efficiency, Water harvesting, </li></ul><ul><li>Input of agrochemicals </li></ul><ul><li>Vary amounts of fertilizer application, Alter time of application, Vary amount of chemical control </li></ul>
  13. 13. Understanding the Stakeholder Linkages and Decision Process Small Farmers (80%) Regional Policy Makers V&A Assessment Central Policy Maker (Ministry of agriculture) Technical Policy Makers National commissions Extension service Decisions Project Extension Service
  14. 14. Thank You . . .