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OTIMIZAGRO: Ferramenta de apoio ao      planejamento territorial     Britaldo Silveira Soares Filho           Centro de Se...
Tendência do desmatamentoQueda de 77% desde 2004, mais de 2 bilhões de toneladas           de CO2 reduzidos da linha de ba...
Ao mesmo tempo o Brasil se tornou o segundo  maior produtor de commodities agrícolas                                      ...
Mas o que se pode esperar?                                   Revisão do código Reversão   ?                               ...
Aptidão Soja                                     Aptidão física                                Muito apto   Apto InaptoApt...
Aptidão Soja                                     Aptidão física                                Muito apto   Apto InaptoApt...
Aptidão Soja                                     Aptidão física                                Muito apto   Apto InaptoApt...
Aptidão Soja                                     Aptidão física                                Muito apto   Apto InaptoApt...
Aptidão Soja                                     Aptidão física                                Muito apto   Apto InaptoApt...
Aptidão física                                Muito apto   Apto InaptoAptidão climática e logística                       ...
Interesses conflitantesO dilema entre conservar as grandes áreas de vegetação nativa no Brasil e aomesmo tempo desenvolver...
Há como conciliar produção agrícola      com conservação florestalPara tanto precisamos conhecer melhor o nosso território
OTIMIZAGRO – Geotecnologias                                                 Software livre                                ...
O que podemos responder?
Distribuição do uso da terra no Brasil             900                                       900Milhões ha                ...
Distribuição do uso da terra no Brasil             900                                       900Milhões ha                ...
Balanço do código florestal*         * Por microbacia da ANA         ordem 12 = 166 mil bacias         Britaldo Soares-Filho
Compensação florestal (dentro de bioma e estado)                  Pampas   Pantanal   Caatinga   Mata Atlântica   Cerrado ...
Terras convertidas aptas para agricultura (sem      considerar restrição climática) = 140 M ha*                       Pamp...
Restauração do restante do passivo de reserva      legal após compensação em terras inaptas                           Pamp...
Maior projeto de MDL no mundo com potencial de sequestrar até 30 bilhões de toneladas de CO2                              ...
Conciliando conservação com produção agrícola                                   Otimizagro• Brasil pode expandir em  até 5...
O novo “conservacionista”     A lenda urbana da intensificação
É preciso entender a geografia da Intensificação da Pecuária                                       Bowman, Soares-Filho et...
Modelo de Balanço Hídrico     Climatológico          Lima et al. 2012
Rentabilidade da Soja em 2009
Cultura mais rentável em 2009
Resposta da Soja à pavimentação de estradasRent         Hydro Powers: Jiraú and Santo Antônio         Northern Corridor an...
Precisamos integrar políticas interministeriais sob uma            visão (inteligência) territorial• Necessidade integrar ...
Obrigado       Britaldo Silveira Soares Filho          britaldo@csr.ufmg.br                 APOIOCLUA
OTIMIZAGRO: Ferramenta de apoio ao planejamento territorial
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OTIMIZAGRO: Ferramenta de apoio ao planejamento territorial

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Apresentação sobre o tema "OTIMIZAGRO: Ferramenta de apoio ao planejamento territorial", ocorrida durante o lançamento do Núcleo de Inteligência Territorial (NIT), em uma parceria entre SAE/PR e Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento (MAPA).

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OTIMIZAGRO: Ferramenta de apoio ao planejamento territorial

  1. 1. OTIMIZAGRO: Ferramenta de apoio ao planejamento territorial Britaldo Silveira Soares Filho Centro de Sensoriamento Remoto UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS MAPA, Brasília, 30/10/20122
  2. 2. Tendência do desmatamentoQueda de 77% desde 2004, mais de 2 bilhões de toneladas de CO2 reduzidos da linha de base, Queda nos outros bioamas também.
  3. 3. Ao mesmo tempo o Brasil se tornou o segundo maior produtor de commodities agrícolas Soja 2012/2013 80 M toneladas Agronegócio viceja no Brasil com menores subsídios
  4. 4. Mas o que se pode esperar? Revisão do código Reversão ? florestalO Brasil precisa aumentar sua produção agrícola em 40% para amundial crescer 20% (OCDE, 2011)
  5. 5. Aptidão Soja Aptidão física Muito apto Apto InaptoAptidão climática e logística
  6. 6. Aptidão Soja Aptidão física Muito apto Apto InaptoAptidão climática e logística
  7. 7. Aptidão Soja Aptidão física Muito apto Apto InaptoAptidão climática e logística soja
  8. 8. Aptidão Soja Aptidão física Muito apto Apto InaptoAptidão climática e logística cana soja
  9. 9. Aptidão Soja Aptidão física Muito apto Apto InaptoAptidão climática e logística Áreas Protegidas cana soja
  10. 10. Aptidão física Muito apto Apto InaptoAptidão climática e logística Áreas Protegidas Áreas Prioritárias p. conservação cana soja
  11. 11. Interesses conflitantesO dilema entre conservar as grandes áreas de vegetação nativa no Brasil e aomesmo tempo desenvolver sua agricultura para atender a demanda crescenteestá gerando uma tensão na nossa sociedade se é possível ou não casarambas as metas.
  12. 12. Há como conciliar produção agrícola com conservação florestalPara tanto precisamos conhecer melhor o nosso território
  13. 13. OTIMIZAGRO – Geotecnologias Software livre Dinamica EGO www.csr.ufmg.br/dinamica Estudo de Baixo Carbono, Banco Mundial Soares-Filho et al. 2012. IADB iadb.org/sustainability/soares
  14. 14. O que podemos responder?
  15. 15. Distribuição do uso da terra no Brasil 900 900Milhões ha Milhões ha 29 ←urbano& água 800 800 ←remanescente 700 209 700 em área A.P. 600 600 500 500 223 ←APP e RL florestada ←remanescentes 321 400 400 ←ativo florestal 98 300 300 ←passivo florestal 38 200 ←pastagens 200 227 189 ←pastagens 100 100 65 ←agricultura 65 ←agrigultura 0 0 Britaldo Soares-Filho
  16. 16. Distribuição do uso da terra no Brasil 900 900Milhões ha Milhões ha 3% ←urbano& água 800 800 ←remanescente 700 25% 700 em área A.P. 600 600 500 500 36% ←APP e RL florestada ←remanescentes 38% 400 400 ←ativo florestal 16% 300 300 ←passivo florestal 6% 200 27% ←pastagens 200 31% ←pastagens 100 100 8% ←agrigultura 11% ←agrigultura 0 0 Britaldo Soares-Filho
  17. 17. Balanço do código florestal* * Por microbacia da ANA ordem 12 = 166 mil bacias Britaldo Soares-Filho
  18. 18. Compensação florestal (dentro de bioma e estado) Pampas Pantanal Caatinga Mata Atlântica Cerrado Amazônia 14Milhões Ha 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6Déficit após compensação = 18 M ha + 4 M ha de APPs Britaldo Soares-Filho
  19. 19. Terras convertidas aptas para agricultura (sem considerar restrição climática) = 140 M ha* Pampas Pantanal Caatinga Mata Atlântica Cerrado Amazônia 25 Milhões Ha 20 15 10 5 0* Após descontar áreas agrícolas segundo PAM 2010 Britaldo Soares-Filho
  20. 20. Restauração do restante do passivo de reserva legal após compensação em terras inaptas Pampas Pantanal Caatinga Mata Atlântica Cerrado Amazônia 25 Milhões Ha 20 15 10 5 0 -5Sobram somente = 3,4 M ha que ocupariam área aptas no bioama Amazônia no MatoGrosso
  21. 21. Maior projeto de MDL no mundo com potencial de sequestrar até 30 bilhões de toneladas de CO2 Soares-Filho IDB, 2012 Leite et al. GBC, 2012 5 milhões de propriedades precisam fazer parte do CAR
  22. 22. Conciliando conservação com produção agrícola Otimizagro• Brasil pode expandir em até 50% sua área hoje ocupada pela agricultura ao mesmo tempo em que resolve boa parte da recuperação do passivo ambiental, bastando para isso intensificar a pecuária de ≈ 1.1 para 1.5 cabeça/ha Estudo de Baixo Carbono 23 M ha para 29 M ha até 2030
  23. 23. O novo “conservacionista” A lenda urbana da intensificação
  24. 24. É preciso entender a geografia da Intensificação da Pecuária Bowman, Soares-Filho et al. 2012
  25. 25. Modelo de Balanço Hídrico Climatológico Lima et al. 2012
  26. 26. Rentabilidade da Soja em 2009
  27. 27. Cultura mais rentável em 2009
  28. 28. Resposta da Soja à pavimentação de estradasRent Hydro Powers: Jiraú and Santo Antônio Northern Corridor and Transoceanic Highway Potential area with high rents = 976,000 km2 or increase of 13%U$/hec Pando, El Beni, Acre, and Madre de Dios
  29. 29. Precisamos integrar políticas interministeriais sob uma visão (inteligência) territorial• Necessidade integrar metas do MAPA com metas do PNMC.• Adotar os princípios de uma agricultura de baixo carbono• Mecanismos de incentivos (pagamento de serviços ambientais).• Uso da melhor ciência disponível e a ser desenvolvida. Este é o nosso desafio.
  30. 30. Obrigado Britaldo Silveira Soares Filho britaldo@csr.ufmg.br APOIOCLUA

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