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Cenários de mudanças climáticas

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Apresentação "Cenários de mudanças climáticas", mostrada pela pesquisadora Chou Sin Chan, durante a 1ª reunião do Comitê Técnico Consultivo (CTC) do projeto Brasil 2040. O momento foi de interação entre as pastas de governo sobre os cenários climáticos e socioeconômicos.

Saiba mais: http://www.sae.gov.br/site/?p=2503

Published in: Environment
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Cenários de mudanças climáticas

  1. 1. Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais CENÁRIOS DE MUDANÇAS CLIMÁTICAS: REGIONALIZAÇÃO (‘downscaling’) Chou Sin Chan chou@cptec.inpe.br +55-12-3186-8424 1
  2. 2. Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES,2000) AR4 2
  3. 3. NOVOS CENÁRIOS USADOS NO IPCC AR5 RCP - Representative Concentration Pathway Integrated Assessment Models ( IA Models ) Land use included 3
  4. 4. PROJEÇÕES DO IPCC AR5 TEMP CHUVA 4
  5. 5. PORQUE GERAR NOVAS SIMULAÇÕES DE MUDANÇAS CLIMÁTICAS? 1. Em geral, foram introduzidas melhorias nos modelos globais que acrescentaram processos importantes para mudanças climáticas, como ciclos biogeoquímicos (“Earth System Model”); 2. A simulação da temperatura da superfície melhorou com correlaçãp espacial de 0.99; e a correlação da precipitação passou de 0.77 em AR4 para 0.82 em AR5. 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 TSA PRECIP RMSE J F M A M J J A S O N D TSA 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 CMIP5 CMIP3 J F M A M J J A S O N D CMIP5 CMIP3 Avaliação do ciclo anual da precipitação período 1980-1999 de 44 modelos do AR5. 5
  6. 6. Projeções para América do Sul a partir de 42 modelos globais, RCP 4.5 (IPCC, 2013) DJF Temperatura AMZ NEB 2016-2035 2046-2065 2081-2100 25% 50% 75% 6
  7. 7. Projeções para América do Sul a partir de 42 modelos globais, RCP 4.5 (IPCC, 2013) ONDJFM Precipitação AMZ NEB 2016-2035 2046-2065 2081-2100 25% 50% 75% 7
  8. 8. (IPCC, 2013) 8
  9. 9. 9 1961-1990 simulations using Eta Model forced by HadCM3 historical 4-member runs (Chou et al 2012, CliDyn) HadCM3 ~ 300 km Eta – 40 km Em estudos de impactos, vulnerabilidade e adaptação, é adequado empregar maior detalhamento que os modelos globais pois estes estudos têm caráter local. Os modelos atmosféricos regionais provem o detalhamento do modelo global (‘downscaling’) para um determinado período de tempo e para uma determinada região. High, mid, low, unperturbed
  10. 10. A B C D E F 10 Development of regional future climate change scenarios in South America using the Eta - HadCM3 climate change projections: Climatology and regional analyses for the Amazon, São Francisco and and the Parana River Basins (Marengo et al 2012, CliDyn) DJF JJA DJF JJA 2010-40 2041-70 2071-2100 H I G J K L Cenário A1B, 4 membros A-F: Precipitação P (%) G-L: Temperatura do ar (oC)
  11. 11. 11 Novos cenários & Desenvolvimentos do Modelo Eta
  12. 12. Modelo Eta características •Convection: 1. Betts-Miller-Janjic scheme, • Stratiform rain: 1. Zhao scheme • Turbulence: Mellor Yamada 2.5, MO surface layer, Paulson functions • Radiation: GFDL package • Land surface scheme: •NOAH scheme, 4 soil layers, • L.B.C. • OAGCM, • Initial soil moisture :monthly climatology • Initial albedo: seasonal climatology •Changes in calculations of Ps, fluxes over ocean, 10-m winds. • Domains •Most part of South America •Southeast Brazil •Northeast Brazil • Resolution: 40 km/38 layers; •15km/50 layers; • 5km/50 layers NH • Grid-point model •Arakawa E grid and Lorenz grid • Refined Eta vertical coordi (Mesinger, 1984; Mesinger et al 2012) •Prognostic variables: T, q, u, v, ps, TKE, cloud water/ice, hydrometeors •Time integration: •2 level, split-explicit •Adjustmet: forward-backward •Horiz.Advection: first forward and then centered •Vert Advection: Piecewise Linear Scheme > finite-volume Model 12
  13. 13. 13 NOVA ESTRATÉGIA DE DOWNSCALING apoio do MCTI, SAE e PNUD 1. HadGEM2-ES 2. BESM 3. MIROC5 * 1. RCP 4.5 2. RCP 8.5 - 3 modelos globais - 2 cenários de emissão Aumento da resolução dos modelos globais; Aumento da resolução do modelo regional Eta Eta – 20 km Eta – 20 km
  14. 14. DJF MAM JJA SON 14 NOVO DOWNSCALING Eta/HadGEM2-ES HadGEM2-ES: Hadley Centre, Grã Bretanha 1.875°x1.250° , 38 níveis, 1/3 graus nos trópicos e 1 grau em latitudes maiores que 30N/S no oceano, 40 níveis; vegetação dinâmica TRIFFID (Collins et al 2008; Martin et al 2011) OBS (CRU) Eta/HadGEM Precipitação média 1961-1990 (mm/dia)
  15. 15. NOVO DOWNSCALING Eta/BESM 2.3.1 BESM: Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Brasil T62 (aprox. 250 km x 250 km) , 28 níveis, ¼ grau no oceano MOM4, 50 níveis Nobre et al., 2013 OBS (CRU) Eta/BESM DJF MAM JJA SON Precipitação média 1961-1990 (mm/dia) 15
  16. 16. NOVO DOWNSCALING Eta/MIROC5 MIROC5: Univ. of Tokyo, National Institute for Environmental Studies, e Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology T85 (aprox. 156 km) , 40 níveis, 1.4o lat x 0.5-1.4o lon no oceano COCO 4.5, 50 níveis Watanabe et al 2010 OBS (CRU) Eta/MIROC5 DJF MAM JJA SON Precipitação média 1961-1970 (mm/dia) 16
  17. 17. PROJEÇÕES FUTURAS de Eta-HadGEM2-ES, Eta-MIROC5 RCP 8.5, RCP 4.5 DIFERENÇA entre climas futuros e o clima presente 1961-1990
  18. 18. PROJEÇÕES FUTURAS de Eta-HadGEM2-ES, Eta-MIROC5 RCP 8.5, RCP 4.5 DIFERENÇA entre climas futuros e o clima presente 1961-1990
  19. 19. 19 PROJEÇÕES FUTURAS 2011-2040 Eta/HadGEM2-ES – RCP 8.5 : TENDÊNCIA DOS EXTREMOS PRCPTOT CDD RX5DAY TN10p TX90p WSDI 19
  20. 20. VERSÃO NÃO-HIDROSTÁTICA PARA ESTUDOS EM ALTA RESOLUÇÃO Eta-20km 315 x 625 x 50 pontos Eta-5km 1961-2100 3h/3h RCP 8.5, BESM 1 simulação Eta-5km 20
  21. 21. VERSÃO NÃO-HIDROSTÁTICA PARA ESTUDOS EM ALTA RESOLUÇÃO 21 Change of land use: Urban vegetation> increase of convective precipitation Caroline Mourão, 2010
  22. 22. VERSÃO Eta- 5km : SIMULAÇÃO de CHUVA JANEIRO, MÉDIA de 5 anos 22 OBS CRU OBS CMORPH Eta-5km Precipitação simulada, média de JANEIRO, 5 anos
  23. 23. Variáveis pós-processadas do Modelo Eta (34) USSL - Umidade do Solo Cont. 0.1 m 0-1 UZRS - Umidade do Solo Cont. 0.4 m 0-1 SMAV - Umidade do Solo Disponível 0-1 RNOF - Runoff a Superfície 3h kg/m²/s RNSG - Runoff subterraneo 3h kg/m²/s EVPP - Evapotransp potencial a spf m LWNV - Fração de Nuvens Baixas 0-1 MDNV - Fração de Nuvens Médias 0-1 HINV - Fração de Nuvens Altas 0-1 OCIS - Rad de onda curta inc a spf W/m² OLIS - Rad de onda longa inc a spf W/m² OCES - Rad de onda curta emerg a spf W/m² OLES - Rad de onda longa emerg a spf W/m² ROCE - Rad de onda curta emerg TOA W/m² ROLE - Rad de onda longa emerg TOA W/m² ALBE - Albedo de Superfície 0-1 CAPE - CAPE J/kg AGPL - Água Precipitável mm ZGEO 20 Altura Geopotencial m UVEL 20 Vento Zonal m/s VVEL 20 Vento Meridional m/s TEMP 20 Temperatura K UMRL 20 Umidade Relativa % OMEG 20 Omega hPa/s UMES 20 Umidade Específica kg/kg Variável Descrição Unid. PSLM - Pressão no Nível Médio do Mar hPa PSLC - Pressão a Superfície hPa TP2M - Temperatura do ar a 2m K MXTP - TemperaturaMáxima das 3h K MNTP - Temperatura Mínima das 3h K DP2M - Temperatura do ponto de orvalho a 2 m K U10M - U 10 m m/s V10M - V 10 m m/s U100 - U 100 m m/s V100 - V 100 m m/s PREC - Precipitação Total 3 h m PRCV - Precipitação Convectiva 3 h m PRGE - Precipitação de microfísica 3 h m NEVE - Neve acumulada em 3 h m CLSF - Fluxo de Calor Latente a spf W/m² CSSF - Fluxo de Calor Sensível a spf W/m² GHFL - Fluxo de Calor no solo W/m² TSFC - Temperatura da Superfície K TGSC - Temperatura do Solo 0.1 m K TGRZ - Temperatura do Solo 0.4 m K 23
  24. 24. Arquivos de saída em binario simples 3h/3h: Eta_HG2ES_Hist_20km1960010100+YYYYMMDDHH_2D: 132481 arquivos binários 2.6 TB 6h/6h: Eta_HG2ES_Hist_20km1960010100+YYYYMMDDHH_3D: 64241 arquivos binários 4.7 TB TOTAL cada conjunto de 30 anos : 7.3 TB Variável Arquivos Nº Arquivos Unidade PREC Eta_HG2ES_Hist_20km_Prec_1960010100_2D.bin … Eta_HG2ES_Hist_20km_Prec_2005010100_2D.bin 132481 69 GB mm/3 horas PREC Eta_HG2ES_Hist_20km_Prec_Diaria_19600101.bin … Eta_HG2ES_Hist_20km_Prec_Diaria_20051230.bin 16560 8,6 GB mm/dia TP2M MXTP MNTP Eta_HG2ES_Hist_20km_Temp_1960010100_2D.bin … Eta_HG2ES_Hist_20km_Temp_2005010100_2D.bin 132481 205 GB K TP2M MXTP MNTP Eta_HG2ES_Hist_20km_Temp_Diaria_19600101.bin … Eta_HG2ES_Hist_20km_Temp_Diaria_20051230.bin 16560 26 GB K 24
  25. 25. Arquivos de saída em TXT - precipitação 25
  26. 26. CUIDADOS 1. 360 dias/ano; 365 dia/ano; 365-6 dias/ano 2. Não há calendário, integrações iniciadas em cerca de 1800 3. Tratar propriedades estatísticas 4. Necessidade de avaliação das simulações para cada aplicação 5. Valores dos modelos não são pontuais 26
  27. 27. 27 Obrigada! chou@cptec.inpe.br 12-3186-8424
  28. 28. EQUIPE Força tarefa Consultores: PNUD/MCTI PNUD/SAE Analistas/programadores 1. Adan Silva adan_jps@Hotmail.com 2. Daniela Carneiro danic_Rodrigues@yahoo.com.br 3. Diego Campos diandradecampos@yahoo.com 4. Diego Chagas diegodjc@gmail.com 5. Gracielle Siqueira graciqueira@gmail.com 6. Gustavo Sueiro Gustavo.sueiro@cptec.inpe.br Meteorologistas 1. André Lyra Andrelyra1@gmail.com 2. Caroline Mourão carolmourao@gmail.com 3. Claudine Dereczynski claudinedereczynski@gmail.com 4. Isabel Pilotto isabelpilotto@gmail.com 5. Jorge Gomes jorgeluisgomes@gmail.com 6. Priscila Tavares priltavares@gmail.com 28

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