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Weil, lsu post katrina survey - 150326 - southerns

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LSU Post-Katrina Research
on Disaster Recovery & Community Resilience
(Supported by the National Science Foundation)
Rick ...

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Development of Disaster Literature 1
Early literature focused on debunking myths,
especially demonstrating that after disa...

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Development of Disaster Literature 2
Beginning around the 1970s, focus in the literature
turned to the effects of inequali...

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Weil, lsu post katrina survey - 150326 - southerns

  1. 1. LSU Post-Katrina Research on Disaster Recovery & Community Resilience (Supported by the National Science Foundation) Rick Weil Department of Sociology, LSU fweil@lsu.edu www.fweil.com
  2. 2. Development of Disaster Literature 1 Early literature focused on debunking myths, especially demonstrating that after disasters, the dominant community responses tended to be, not chaos and predation, but rather – • cooperation and altruism • with new solidaristic organizations often emerging from the grass roots
  3. 3. Development of Disaster Literature 2 Beginning around the 1970s, focus in the literature turned to the effects of inequality and vulnerability. • Weaker social and economic groups were more vulnerable to harm, especially the poor, minorities, women, children and the elderly, and disabled people. • In addition, due to factors like environmental racism and government favoritism, disadvantaged groups were more exposed to hazards in the first place and less likely to receive assistance after a disaster. • At a macro-level, vulnerability research has moved to a critique of Neo-liberalism.
  4. 4. Development of Disaster Literature 3 Most recently, scholars have begun emphasizing social capital, civic engagement, and the importance of organizations. • e.g., Daniel Aldrich’s recent book on social capital and disaster recovery. • Social capital augments analyses of inequality and vulnerability; it does not displace them.
  5. 5. Roots of Social Capital theory in Political Sociology Early empirical work from the 1950s and 1960s set the basis for understanding civic engagement. • Especially the work of Sidney Verba. • Putnam’s work on social capital grew out of this. • It points back to Tocqueville’s discussion of how community self-governance works.
  6. 6. LSU Post-Katrina Research on Disaster Recovery & Community Resilience Hypotheses About Recovery: Individual and Collective Resources
  7. 7. The Verba-Nie-Kim Hypotheses: Individual & Collective resources are correlated, but Collective Resources can Compensate for the Lack of Individual Resources Derived from: Sidney Verba, Norman H. Nie, Jae-on Kim, Participation and Political Equality: A Seven-Nation Comparison. Cambridge: Cambridge UP, 1978, page 85. Benefit Individual Resources (e.g. SES) Group with Individual- Level Resources (only) Another Group with Individual-Level Resources (only) Benefit Individual Resources (e.g. SES) Group with Individual- Level Resources (only) Group Has Collective Resources Compensating Effect
  8. 8. New Orleans Hypotheses: Individual & Collective Resources and Disaster Recovery Individual-Level Resources Yes No Collective Resources (Social Capital, Organization) Yes High level of Recovery. High to Medium level of Recovery. e.g. Jewish community e.g. Vietnamese community; SAPC members No High to Medium level of Recovery. Low level of Recovery. e.g. Renaissance Village (FEMA Trailer Park) (Rare: High Individual-Level Resources usually permit formation of Collective Resources, as needed)
  9. 9. LSU Post-Katrina Research on Disaster Recovery & Community Resilience Data Basis: 7,000 interviews in main Household Survey over 10,000 total interviews, all surveys ca. 100 interviews with Neighborhood Association Leaders Ethnographic research with over 200 groups ca. 150 Videotaped in-depth interviews
  10. 10. LSU Post-Katrina Research on Disaster Recovery & Community Resilience Maps of Flooding & Damage
  11. 11. Mapped from U.S. Geological Survey Data
  12. 12. Mapped from City of New Orleans Data
  13. 13. Source: LSU Disaster Recovery Survey
  14. 14. LSU Post-Katrina Research on Disaster Recovery & Community Resilience Individual-Level Data Analyses
  15. 15. Individual Level Regressions: Low Damage, High Social Status, & Social Capital Promote Recovery and reduce Negative Outcomes. Stay or Leave Nola Recovery - Household Recovery - Neighborhd Psych Distress Social Closeness Damage & Resources Damage to Residence -.10** -.23** -.37** .14** -.03* Demographic Estimated Income .04* .15** .09** -.14** -.07** Black .07** -.10** -.01 -.10** .14** Female .05** -.04* -.02+ .12** .03+ Age .06** -.06** -.06** .00 .06** Time since Katrina .14** .25** .24** -.07** .05** Social Capital Social Trust .12** .14** .18** -.18** .25** Civic Engagement .04* .01 .01 .05** .12** Social Embeddedness -.04* .07** .04* -.02 .14** Church service attendance -.02 .01 -.04** -.07** .10** Adj R-Sq .05 .18 .24 .10 .15
  16. 16. Individual Level Regressions: “Intersectionality” has a small, irregular impact, but it doesn’t change the main story. Stay or Leave Nola Recovery - Household Recovery - Neighborhd Psych Distress Social Closeness Damage & Resources Damage to Residence -.10** -.10** -.23** -.23** -.37** -.37** .14** .14** -.03* -.03* Demographic Estimated Income .01 .03+ .12** .13** .09** .09** -.10** -.13** -.06** -.07** Black .12** .08** -.07** -.09** .03 .00 -.12** -.11** .15** .14** Female .07** .07** -.04+ -.03+ -.02 -.02 .14** .12** .06** .03+ Age .05** .05** -.06** -.06** -.07** -.06** .00 .00 .06** .06** Time since Katrina .14** .14** .25** .25** .24** .24** -.07** -.07** .05** .05** Social Capital Social Trust .12** .12** .14** .14** .18** .18** -.18** -.18** .25** .25** Civic Engagement .04* .04* .01 .01 .01 .01 .05** .05** .12** .12** Social Embeddedness -.04* -.04* .07** .07** .04* .04* -.02 -.02 .14** .14** Church service attendance -.03 -.02 .01 .01 -.04** -.04** -.06** -.07** .10** .10** Intersectionality Black Female -.04 -.01 -.04 -.02 -.04+ Poor Female .01 .02 .05** -.02 -.02 Poor Black -.08** -.07** -.06** .09** .03 Poor Black Female -.04* -.04* -.02 .03 .00 Adj R-Sq .06 .06 .18 .18 .24 .24 .10 .10 .15 .15
  17. 17. LSU Post-Katrina Research on Disaster Recovery & Community Resilience Aggregate Data Analyses
  18. 18. With a large enough N (7,000), we can aggregate (average) data to geographical districts and conduct aggregate analyses. We use Census Tracts, the finest (smallest) district size we can, consistent with reliable averages per district.
  19. 19. Aggregating 7,000 survey responses to Census Tracts. Example: Civic Engagement
  20. 20. Sources: HUD; USPS; Valassis & Greater New Orleans Community Data Center Repopulation Data (from Postal deliveries) Can be analyzed with our aggregated survey data.
  21. 21. Aggregate Level Bivariate Charts: Low Damage, High Social Status, & Social Capital Promote Repopulation per Census Tract* 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 Pre-K 3/09 3/10 3/11 3/12 Civic Engagement Top Civ Eng Bottom Civ Eng 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 Pre-K 3/09 3/10 3/11 3/12 Income Top Assets Bottom Assets 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 Pre-K 3/09 3/10 3/11 3/12 Damage Top Damage Bottom Damage 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 Pre-K 3/09 3/10 3/11 3/12 Social Embeddedness Top SocEmb Bottom SocEmb 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 Pre-K 3/09 3/10 3/11 3/12 Race Most Black Least Black *Showing top and bottom quartiles
  22. 22. Blight Reduction can be analyzed in a similar way. Sources: HUD; USPS; City of New Orleans
  23. 23. We add an Organizational Level: A Survey of Neighborhood Association Presidents (N=70) In collaboration with The Neighborhoods Partnership Network (NPN), A nonprofit, citywide network of neighborhoods.
  24. 24. NPN Neighborhood Associations that Responded to our Survey Note: Some Neighborhood Associations overlap with Others
  25. 25. Blight Reduction: 1. Storm Damage Source: City of New Orleans
  26. 26. Blight Reduction: 2. Post-Katrina Blight (average over time) Source: U.S. Postal Service, HUD
  27. 27. Blight Reduction: 3. Blight Reduction in the Flooded Areas Source: U.S. Postal Service, HUD
  28. 28. Blight Reduction: Neighborhood Associations’ Effect on Reducing Blight: Multiple Regressions LSU/NPN Survey of Neighborhood Association Leaders (N = 67) and LSU Disaster Recovery Survey (N = 7,000) Regressions (with Fixed Controls) Blight Reduction Wet areas: all Wet areas: NBOs only 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 Damage Assessment .277+ .189 .328* .259+ .318* Median household income .006 .074 .021 .101 Unemployed -.457* -.302+ -.442* -.438* -.222 -.433* Pct Black .324 .308* .302 .260 .344* .394+ .383* .384+ .294 .409* Married with Children .328+ .341* .333+ .364* Pct Owner Occupied -.276 -.316+ -.281 -.327+ Disadvantage Index -.168 -.243 -.149 -.262 AssociationalInvolvement .271 .411** .260+ .291+ .407** .199 .437** .222 .218 .401** Family is Rooted in New Orleans .179 .254 .268 .341+ Church service attendance -.215 -.090 -.248 -.083 Cooperation with Other Organizations:Count .090 .274* .180 .160 .281* .025 .202 .144 .047 .215+ OrganizationalActivities: Blight (q 41) .321* .240* .242* .295* .223+ .361** .308* .262* .353** .267* Organization Structural Assets (Block Capts) .117 .157 .148 .217+ Adj R-Sq .602 .567 .607 .560 .553 .658 .577 .641 .621 .582
  29. 29. LSU Post-Katrina Research on Disaster Recovery & Community Resilience Causal Processes/Mechanisms: Community Strategies and Resources for Recovery Qualitative Research: “Social Action” Partnerships and Video Ethnography
  30. 30. Community Strategies and Resources for Recovery 1 • Increasing organizational capacity and autonomy. – Use of Committees, Block Captains, etc. – Doing own Data Collection. – New technologies, like Mapping, Data Bases. – Use of Volunteers. – Taking the initiative and not waiting for outside help.
  31. 31. Community Strategies and Resources for Recovery 2 • Greater strategic sophistication. – Creating “Critical Masses” or “Tipping Points” • Talking to Retail & Neighbors • Managing expectations – Branding – Community planning • E.g., Broadmoor, Vietnamese, Jews
  32. 32. Managing Expectations and Tipping Points May have spurred Repopulation Note: Tracts are different in different years The Effect of Expectations on Repopulation in Greater New Orleans, 2006-2010 Survey Data (N=ca. 7,000) & USPS Data at Tract Level (N as shown) Bivariate Correlations Cumulative Rate of Repopulation to: Expectations N 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Most NBH evacuees will return 2007 33 - .212 .312+ .317+ .322+ Most NBH evacuees will return 2008 37 - - .165 .128 .091 Neighborhood will Recover 2006 23 .584** .602** .708** .716** .742** Neighborhood will Recover 2007 33 - .596** .609** .628** .604** Neighborhood will Recover 2008 37 - - .082 .153 .142 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 Pre-K 3/09 3/10 3/11 3/12 Civic Engagement Top Civ Eng Bottom Civ Eng Managing expectations might have spurred repopulation in communities that were well organized.
  33. 33. Community Strategies and Resources for Recovery 3 • Increasing citizen participation. – People who had never participated before • A new Cooperative Orientation among community leaders – 91% of Neighborhood leaders affirmed that relations with other leaders are cooperative 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% There are other neighborhood organizations whose roles overlap with your organization See your relationships with other neighborhood groups as cooperative, rather than competitive Your organization compares activities and strategies with organizations in other neighborhoods, in order to learn from each others’ experiences Relations among Neighborhood Associations (N = 56)
  34. 34. Community Strategies and Resources for Recovery 4 • Emergence of new Umbrella Groups from outside the organizational eco-system they work with – Convening Groups. – Find areas of common concern on which they can work together. – Find synergies on issues that would otherwise produce competition/conflict. – Learn from each other. Barbara Lacen Keller teaching NPN’s Capacity College
  35. 35. Community Strategies and Resources for Recovery 5 • New recovery resources from “Outside-inside” the community – Extra-Regional, National, & International assistance from within the communities – Vietnamese Community • Houston & West Bank Neighbors – Jewish Community • National & Baton Rouge organizations – Cultural Community • Assistance to Musicians from Musicians
  36. 36. LSU Post-Katrina Research on Disaster Recovery & Community Resilience (Supported by the National Science Foundation) Rick Weil Department of Sociology, LSU fweil@lsu.edu www.fweil.com
  37. 37. LSU Post-Katrina Research on Disaster Recovery & Community Resilience Addendum on Aggregate Data Analyses (if there’s time & interest)
  38. 38. Violent Crime can also be analyzed in a similar way.
  39. 39. Church Membership Is associated with Reduced Violent Crime Survey Data (N = 6,945) & N.O. Police Reports, Aggregated to Tract Level (N = 182)
  40. 40. Aggregate Level: Church Membership’s Effect on Reducing Violent Crime: Spatial Regressions Factors Influencing Crime Rates in Orleans Parish, 2007-2009 Survey Data (N = 6,945) & Aggregate Data at Tract Level (N = 182) Regression Models, Testing for Spatial Auto-correlation: t-Statistics or z-values Natural Log (Ln) Rates Combined Murder Assault Constant 4.813** 1.925+ 3.506** Spatial Lag 13.024** 9.740** 10.662** ACS 2005-09 Pct Below Poverty level 2.149* 2.305* ACS 2005-09 Unemployed over Age 16 -3.360** ACS 2005-09 Pct Age 15-34 -1.197 ACS 2005-09 Pct Vacant Housing Units 4.181** 2.362* ACS 2005-09 Pct Owner Occupied -1.004 -3.812** ACS 2005-09 Pct Non-Hispanic Black 3.096** 4.024** 3.327** Church member -3.343** -2.914** -4.293** Social Trust -3.594** -2.227* -2.968**

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