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The Psychology of Biases


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Are you convinced that test-driven development (TDD) will benefit your team, but you find some developers view the practice as unproductive and unhelpful? Are you the lone voice advocating for continuous integration (CI), really convinced it will bring huge benefits, but others don't want to listen? Do you see the wisdom of secure-by-design and actively assessing software security, yet management feels that they've avoided any problems so far and assume they'll continue to avoid problems.

Research tells us that the information we take in depends on a person’s assumptions, aversions, biases, and preconceptions. Broadly speaking, psychologists and scientists call these cognitive biases. People who study organizational behavior use their understanding of cognitive biases to bring important improvements and change to individuals, teams, and organizations.

Come learn about common cognitive biases that impact development teams. Let's explore strategies to identify and cope with seemingly irrational decisions against new and better practices. Through specific examples, learn some straightforward ways that may help you manage the opposition you encounter that can hold teams back.

Stephen Ritchie is the author of Pro .NET Best Practices ( and the organizer of the DC ALT .NET group ( He has been writing software professionally for over 20 years. Stephen works as a software development consultant at Excella Consulting in the Washington, D.C. area. His passion for following best practices has taught him to appreciate the value of experience, practical know-how, and continuous learning. Stephen is the .NET best practices steward at Excella Consulting, working with .NET project teams to facilitate and sort out the helpful practices from the unhelpful ones, the practicable from the impracticable, and the "sounds good" from the "it really is good" practices and principles.

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The Psychology of Biases

  1. 1. The Psychology of Biases Why Some Folks Are Averse to Better Development Practices Stephen Ritchie 15-Apr-2014
  2. 2. Excella Consulting Warm Up • Three Clues –Handouts –Two Secret Clues –Third Clue in the Slides
  3. 3. Excella Consulting Warm Up • Third clue: – One word answer – Begins with “H” – Ends with “y” • Once the question is asked, quickly write down your one word answer. • Stand up once you have the answer.
  4. 4. Excella Consulting Warm Up What one word best describes how she was feeling just before Mary had a little lamb?
  5. 5. Excella Consulting Warm Up What are your answers? Happy Hungry Hostility
  6. 6. Excella Consulting Definition Cognitive Bias Own “subjective reality” from their perception of input
  7. 7. Excella Consulting Personal Story
  8. 8. Excella Consulting Personal Story
  9. 9. Excella Consulting Cognitive Bias Semmelweis Reflex
  10. 10. Excella Consulting Meet the man … Dr. Semmelweis, M.D. Obstetrician Young Vienna 1846
  11. 11. Excella Consulting Problem: Childbed Fever
  12. 12. Excella Consulting Mother’s Mortality Rate Up To 30% Semmelweis’ Hospital
  13. 13. Excella Consulting Mother’s Morality Rate More Moderate 7.5% Neighboring Hospital
  14. 14. Excella Consulting Scientific Method Q: Why the difference? Hypothesis Experiment Conclusion
  15. 15. Excella Consulting Hypothesis Between the morgue…
  16. 16. Excella Consulting Hypothesis And the delivery room…
  17. 17. Excella Consulting Hypothesis Disinfect!
  18. 18. Excella Consulting Mother’s Mortality Rate Mortality Rate Dropped Under 1% Semmelweis’ Results
  19. 19. Excella Consulting Conclusion Lack of Cleanliness Caused Death
  20. 20. Excella Consulting Headline 1847: Physician Makes Amazing Discovery Easy to implement, easily proven, and clearly saves lives.
  21. 21. Excella Consulting Why has nobody ever heard of him? Dr. Semmelweis, M.D. Who? Semmel
  22. 22. Excella Consulting Semmelweis’ Approach Conventional Wisdom Challenged
  23. 23. Excella Consulting Contemporaries’ Beliefs Hippocrates4 Humours
  24. 24. Excella Consulting Reaction Rejection Criticism Scorn
  25. 25. Excella Consulting Definition Semmelweis Reflex Reject new evidence that contradicts established beliefs
  26. 26. Excella Consulting Preaching Heresy
  27. 27. Excella Consulting Test-Driven Development Test CodeRefactor
  28. 28. Excella Consulting Confound Your Logic, Mr. Spock! Logical Sequential Rational Analytical
  29. 29. Excella Consulting No Silver Bullet Fault Defect Wrong Solution Avoid
  30. 30. Excella Consulting Focus On The Pain Pain Points Adaptations Experiments Results Outcomes
  31. 31. Excella Consulting Doctor McDreamy Understanding Gentle Helpful Intuitive Patient
  32. 32. Excella Consulting Epilogue So, whatever became of Dr. Semmelweis?
  33. 33. Excella Consulting Lured To An Asylum …
  34. 34. Excella Consulting Put in a straightjacket …
  35. 35. Excella Consulting Honored Posthumously
  36. 36. Excella Consulting Don’t Be Like Semmelweis Insistence Avoid: Obsession Arrogance
  37. 37. Excella Consulting Relax, Have Fun Wit It
  38. 38. Excella Consulting Cognitive Bias Normalcy Bias
  39. 39. Excella Consulting Tornado Alley
  40. 40. Excella Consulting How many tornado shelters in “Tornado Alley”? Oklahoma Percentage of homes with storm shelters?
  41. 41. Excella Consulting Surprisingly In the Oklahoma City area, perhaps 10 to 20 percent of homes have some kind of formal shelter. Most houses and public buildings in ‘Tornado Alley’ lack storm shelters, by Agence France-Presse. May 22, 2013
  42. 42. Excella Consulting Surprisingly “Unfortunately, people prefer homes with swimming pools rather than storm shelters,” said Oklahoma State Representative Joe Dorman Most houses and public buildings in ‘Tornado Alley’ lack storm shelters, by Agence France-Presse. May 22, 2013
  43. 43. Excella Consulting Definition Normalcy Bias Underestimate both the possibility and effects of a disaster
  44. 44. Excella Consulting With a name like Target, are we surprised?
  45. 45. Excella Consulting Security Development Lifecycle Security & Privacy Risk Assessments Static Analysis Incident Response Fuzz Testing
  46. 46. Excella Consulting SDL Implementation
  47. 47. Excella Consulting Six Sigma
  48. 48. Excella Consulting Cognitive Bias Ambiguity Effect
  49. 49. Excella Consulting OCR
  50. 50. Excella Consulting Punch Card
  51. 51. Excella Consulting Tried and True “… it would be excessively costly to IBM to quickly introduce more modern machinery using electronics and magnetic tape instead of relays and punched cards.” From Tabulators to Early Computers in the U.S. Life Insurance Industry: Co-evolution and Continuities, JoAnne Yates, October 1993, CCS WP #153, Sloan School WP #3618-93
  52. 52. Excella Consulting Definition Ambiguity Effect Favor an option where the outcome is known over one where the outcome is unknown
  53. 53. Excella Consulting Exercise • On your index card • Write 3 specific examples • Organizations pick development patterns and practices that are – “old and adequate” over “new and better” – “tried and true” over “possibly better” – “always done it” over “unprecedented”
  54. 54. Excella Consulting Why did we decide to go with … Automated Testing Manual Testing over
  55. 55. Excella Consulting Why did we decide to go with … Automated Builds Manual Builds over
  56. 56. Excella Consulting Why did we decide to go with … Scripts Manual Configuration over
  57. 57. Excella Consulting Why did we decide to go with … Continuous Integration Final Integration over
  58. 58. Excella Consulting Knowledge, Skill, and Attitude What to do Barriers How to do it Why to do it
  59. 59. Excella Consulting Training, Coaching, and Practice Short tutorial Trial period Training course Measure value Embed a coach
  60. 60. Excella Consulting Cognitive Bias Dunning- Kruger Effect
  61. 61. Excella Consulting Definition Dunning-Kruger Effect Some people can wildly overestimate their relative competence
  62. 62. Excella Consulting I want to be a lion tamer! Monty Python - Vocational Guidance Counselor sketch
  63. 63. Excella Consulting Definition Dunning-Kruger Effect People with true ability can tend to underestimate their relative competence
  64. 64. Excella Consulting Let’s switch to NoSQL
  65. 65. Excella Consulting Uninitiated Easy concept Inflated experts Not yet challenged Lack experience
  66. 66. Excella Consulting Knowledge Transfer, Experience, and Expertise Patience & wisdom Proof-of-concept Knowledge transfer Know-how Experience
  67. 67. Excella Consulting We are all individuals. (I’m not!) “In a very real sense there is no such thing as organizational behavior. There is only individual behavior. Everything else flows out of that.” Principle-Centered Leadership, Stephen Covey
  68. 68. Excella Consulting • Stephen Ritchie • Excella Consulting – .NET developer – “Best Practices” – Training agile eng – ScrumMaster/coach • • tchie • @ruthlesshelp • Organizer DC Alt.NET Shameless Self Promotion