Sidi-salim 2100 Damitta 2100 Mtobas Hamul Kafrsaad Alex. Portsaid Kafr addawar Impact of climate change on SLR in relation to land loss in the Nile Delta on 2100 using A1 scenario (low aerosol level ). 2100 2100 Impact of climate change and land subsidence on SLR in relation to land loss in the Nile Delta on 2100 using A1 scenario More than 200 m. (low aerosol level ). 200 – 100 Land LossElevations 100 – 50 50 – 20 20-10 10-0 300 150 0 300 Km. Less than 0
Global Environment Facility (GEF)• Established 1991 to forge international cooperation and finance actions to address critical threats to global environment• Projects and addresses global environment within the frame work of country priorities• GEF provided approximately US$ 1.8 billion in grants from GEF grants to climate change activities.• An additional US$ 9 billion from bi-lateral and national resources
Cooperation Mechanisms• Special Climate Change Fund• Least Developed Countries Fund• Global Environment Facility (GEF) Trust Fund• Clean Development Mechanism
GEF Implementing Agencies UNDP UNDP UNEP UNEP World Bank World Bank UNDP UNEP World technical global/ Bank assistance / regional investment capacity and trans- projects building boundary projects projects, support STAP
GEF Thematic Areas• Biodiversity• Climate Change• International Waters• Ozone Depletion• Land Degradation• Persistent Organic Pollutants – POPs
A Short History of the Framework Convention on Climate Change• 1979 First World Climate Conference• 1987 Montreal Protocol signed in Montreal• 1988 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) established• 1990 Second World Climate Conference• 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) signed at the UN Conference on Environment and Development in Rio• 1995 The First Session of the Conference of the Parties to the FCCC (ratifying States) in Berlin [Berlin Mandate established [• 1996 The Second Session of the Conference of Parties (COP2) in Geneva• 1997 Meetings of the Ad hoc Group on the Berlin Mandate (AGBM )• 1997 The Third Session of the Conference of Parties (COP3) in Kyoto.
About IPCCEstablished by WMO and UNEP 1988:• Assess scientific, technical and socio- economic information on climate change, impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation• Publication of reports• No research, no monitoring, no recommendations• Policy relevant but not policy prescriptive• Extensive review processes of its reports• Support to UNFCCC
About IPCC: organisation WMO/UNEP IPCC IPCC Chair IPCC Bureau Working group I Working Group II Working Group III Task Force on Science Impact and Adaptation Mitigation National GHG inventoriesTechnical Support Unit Technical Support Unit Technical Support Unit Technical Support Unit UK USA Netherlands Japan
OUTLINE FOR WORKING GROUP II : IPCC FOURTH ASSESSMENT REPORTCLIMATE CHANGE: IMPACTS, ADAPTATION AND VULNERABILITYSummary for Policymakers + Technical Summary IntroductionI. ASSESSMENT OF OBSERVED CHANGES1. Assessment of Observed Changes in Natural and Managed SystemsII. ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION: SECTORS AND SYSTEMS2. New Methods and Scenarios of the Future3. Fresh Water Resources and their Management4. Ecosystems and their Services5. Food, Fibre, Forestry, and Fisheries6. Coasts and Low-lying Areas7. Industry, Settlement, and Society8. Human HealthIII. ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION:REGIONS 9: Africa, 10: Asia, 11: Australia and New Zealand, 12: Europe, 13: Latin America14: North America, 15: Polar Regions (Arctic and Antarctic), 16: Small IslandsIV. ASSESSMENT OF RESPONSES TO IMPACTS17. Assessment of Adaptation Options, Capacity and Practice18. Assessment of Inter-relationships between Adaptation and Mitigation19. Assessing key vulnerabilities20. Perspectives on Climate Change and Sustainability
Contributions to radiative forcing in the late 1990s (TAR)
Although the GWPs have been updated by the IPCC, estimates of emissions and removals reported under the UNFCC should continue to use the GWPs from the Second Assessment Report (SAR .( The guidelines under which inventories are developed, the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC/UNEP/OECD/IEA 1997) and the UNFCCC Reporting Guidelines for national inventories were developed prior to the publication of the TAR . Therefore, to comply with international reporting standards under the UNFCCC, official emission estimates are to be reported by Parties using Figure .. Importance of GWP SAR GWP values.
Sectorial Emissions in Egypt (1990/1991) % Total Emissions% CH4 Emissions % N2O Emissions
Sources of GHG from Agriculture Enteric Fermentation Manure Management Agricultural Soils Rice Cultivation Field burning of Agricultural Residues
Emissions from Agriculture (1990/1991 GWPs) Sector Gas Emissio GWPs CO2 Egu. ns (Gg) (Gg) Agriculture CO2 1 CH4 543 21 11403 N2O 21 310 6510 Total 17913 Grand Total 116608 (of all sectors)
Alternative Scenario Formulations Quantitative Models Scenarios Story lines Qualitative Source: IPCC SRES, 2000
Figure 1: Scenario developed by the US Pentagon for the period2010-2020 following a hypothetical thermohaline circulationshutdown in 2010 (Schwartz and Randall, 2003).
Previous developed and used scenarios by IPCC 1992 1995 1996 2000 2001 2004 ????SixIS92scenarios EvaluationScenarios TAR StartwritingAR5 Paneldecision StartwritingAR4 newscenarios Special Report EmissionScenarios(SRES) INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
Agriculture sensitivity to climate• Effect on crops Incoming solar radiation regulates photosynthesis processes Air temperature controls the duration of General Constraints the growing period and other Incoming solar radiation processes linked with the accumulation Temperature of dry matter (i.e. leaf area expansion, Water and nutrient availability respiration) Rainfall and soil water availability Local Constraints affects the duration of growth (i.e leaf Late spring and early autumn area duration and photosynthetic frosts efficiency) Heat stresses• Effect on animals Hails and storms metabolic processes (direct effect) forage quality and quantity (indirect effect) ACACIA, 1999
Direct consequences of CC on agro-ecosystemsYields of grains and other crops could decreasesubstantially across the Mediterranean regiondue to increased frequency of drought, even ifpotential production should raise thanks toincreased CO2 concentrations. Some crops(e.g. maize) could be forced out of production.Livestock production would suffer due to adeterioration in the quality of rangelandassociated with higher concentrations ofatmospheric carbon dioxide and to changes inareas of rangeland (increase of unproductiveshrubland and desert).
Influence on crop productionMain evidences Current differences in crop productivity between northern and southern countries will increase under climate change Inter-annual variability of crop yields will increase, especially in regions, such southern Europe, where crop production is affected by water shortages Adaptive strategies (changing variety and altering sowing date) may alleviate yield losses by reducing the risk of low yields in most situations Future research will have to quantify the uncertainties within climate change impacts assessments to produce confidence intervals for each result
Influence on livestock systemsMain evidences Changes in availability and prices of grains for feeding (cereals, pulses and other feed grains) Changes in productivity of pastures and forage crops Change in distribution of livestock diseases Changes in animal health, growth, and reproduction (direct effects of weather and extreme events) Change in the turn-over and losses of nutrients from animal manure, both in houses, storages and in the field manure influencing the availability of manure in organic farms
Possible indirectconsequences of climate change
Indirect consequences• Crop production would be further threatened by increases in competition for water from other sectors.• World prices for many key commodities such as wheat, maize, soybean meal and poultry could rise significantly as a result of global climate changes and macroeconomic factors.• Not only might Mediterranean countries loose in economic terms, but the combination of population growth, higher prices and yield losses would lead to a deterioration in levels of food security in particularly in southern countries.
Competition for water resources • In relatively water-abundant and developed communities, competition is between consumptive and non-consumptive uses, in water-scarce ones uses competition still primarily results from the difficulty of satisfying the increasing demands for ‘traditional’ consumptive water uses. • In the Mediterranean basin both forms of competition can be observed, but countries on the southern shores are experiencing a continuous decrease in their ability to satisfy ‘basic needs’
A first conclusion• Climate change tends to exacerbate existing environmental and socioeconomic problems (desertification, food security, etc.), rather than creating new ones, but the concurrent macroeconomic trends could lead to amplified negative interactions between environmental and economic variable and amplified social impacts. Water resources are the main source of concern.
Effects of rising temperature of the water Cycle More extreme weather High Increase the Droughttemperature speed of the Storms water cycle Floods Increase intensity of drought Increase the flood
Causes of desertificationHuman activities:• Global climate change• Extinction of biodiversity• Contamination and pollution of air ,water, and land• Enrichment of the resources with persistent organic pollutants• Removal of biomass for fuel• Over cultivation• Overgrazing• Mismanagement of water resources• Land miningClimate variations
SalinityAbout 2 million fed. suffer from Stalinization problems.60% of the cultivated lands of NorthernDelta region are salt affected.Due to:• The misuse of irrigation water .• Improper field drainage systems . ( 4 million acres of 7.4 million have been provided with field drainage systems).
Urbanization•Urban encroachment and soil scarping.•Losses was estimated by about 20,000Fed. / year). Urbanization is expected to rise in a “business-as –usual “ scenario
Conservation of land Resources from pollutionCause :The extensive use of chemical fertilizers, pesticidesand agrochemicals amendments .led to :Excessive leaching of nitrates to the water table and further to thegroundwater resources causing health and environmental hazards .Approached by : Research and extension activities. Public awareness efforts. Introduction of Integrated Pest Management practices. Restrictive rules for importing and using pesticides. Rational use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides.
FrostHigh temperature will affect the thermal requirements and coolingrequirements of the Securities fallen fruit, which may affect the spread ofthe cultivation of some crops such as apples, peaches, pears.
Impact of cc on evapotranspiration Change in evapotranspiration (ET m 3/ fad) of major crops due to climate change 14 % 5700Evapotranspiration (ET m3/ fad) 5000 4300 7% 3600 9% 9% 4% 2900 -2% 2200 -2% 1500 800 100 Wheat Maize Cotton Sorghum Barley Rice Soybean Base ET 1660 2615 2700 2140 1430 4540 2840 ET in 2050 1643 2824 2970 2311 1401 5266 3266 Crop Base ET ET in 2050
Table (3) Water requirement for maize under current and future conditions (2050) under drip and flood irrigation systems. Water requirements m3/Fed. Drip irrigation Flood irrigationLocation Current Climate % Current Climate condition change Difference condition change % DifferenceWadi El-Natron 3063 3227 5.4% 5105 5661 10.9%Kafr Elshiekh 2701 2844 5.3% 4502 4989 10.8%Menia 3708 3909 5.4% 6180 6858 11.0%Nekhel 2695 2838 5.3% 4492 4979 10.8%Kharga 3974 4165 4.8% 6623 7307 10.3%Abo Elkizan 2922 3007 2.9% 4870 5275 8.3%Toshka 4134 4361 5.5% 6890 7651 11.0%Mean 3313 3478 4.9% 5523 6103 10.5%