2009 September Oilwatch Monthly

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2009 September Oilwatch Monthly

  1. 1. Oilwatch Monthly - September 2009 16 September 2009 - (next update: 19 October 2009) Your coverage on the latest worldwide oil market developments ASPO Netherlands Rembrandt Koppelaar +31 (0)6 44082419 Oil market fundamentals and 2009 oil price movements contact@peakoil.nl Definitions www.peakoil.nl This year we have so far seen two distinct price bands on the oil market. The first a price band between 40 and 50 dollars per barrel from January Crude Oil, petroleum found in liquid and semi to April, which in May transitioned into the second price band between liquid form including deepsea oil and Powered by www.theoildrum.com 60 and 72 dollars per barrel. Looking back, the latest data from the Joint lease condensates. Oil Data Initiative shows that this price shift coincided with a turnaround in declining demand in OECD countries. Every month from January to Liquids, all forms of liquid fuels including May OECD demand declined from a total of 45.31 million b/d in January to conventional, heavy, and extra heavy oil, 42.19 million b/d in May. This changed when from May to June 2009 OECD oil shale, oil sands, natural gas liquids, lease consumption increased by 658,000 b/d to 42.85 million b/d. Oil production condensates, gas-to-liquids, coal-to-liquids, from May to June increased by only 190,000 b/d from 84.36 to 84.55 million and biofuels. Newsletter Index b/d. One Barrel of oil is equivalent to 159 litres Unfortunately the latest data point for oil demand is June, but more recent Page 2 - 4: World Oil Production data for oil stocks, production and price movements are available. World Page 5: OPEC Oil Production oil production from June to July increased by 730,000 b/d and declined Page 6: Non-OPEC Oil Production Chart 1: Oil Price Weighed Average of Blends by 190,000 from July to August, to respectively production levels of 85.28 Page 7: OPEC Oil Consumption and 84.88 million b/d. OECD crude oil stocks declined from April to May 140 from 1026 to 996 million barrels, to subsequently increase to 1011 million Page 8 - 12: OECD Oil Consumption barrels in June and remain stable around that level in July. And prices went Dollars per Barrel 120 Page 13: Asia Oil Consumption from 54.9 dollars per barrel in May to 67.7 in June, 64.6 in July, 71.4 dollars Euros per Barrel Page 14 - 16: OECD Crude Oil Stocks per barrel in August, and until 15 September averaged around 67 dollars per barrel. 100 Page 17 - 19: Oil Imports & exports Page 20: OPEC Spare Capacity Summarizing oil prices have remained stable as well as OECD stocks, 80 Page 21 - 23: Middle East Production Charts alongside a small increase in oil production since June. These movements Page 24: Europe Production Charts would imply a continued increase in oil consumption in OECD countries, 60 albeit probably a small increase given that the world increase in production Page 25 - 27: Africa Production Charts from June to August has only been 330,000 b/d. 40 Page 28: Asia Production Charts Page 29: Former USSR Production Charts Rembrandt Koppelaar 20 Page 30 - 31: North America Production Charts President ASPO Netherlands Page 32: South America Production Charts 0 Page 33: Oceania Production Charts 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Energy Information Admistration
  2. 2. ASPO Netherlands World Oil Production World liquid fuels production World crude oil production World natural gas liquids production In August 2009 world production of all liquid fuels declined by Latest figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) Natural Gas Liquids production from natural gas fields declined 400,000 barrels per day from July according to the latest fgures show that crude oil production including lease condensates by 21,000 b/d from May to June 2009 according to the latest of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Resulting in total world increased by 444,000 b/d from May to June 2009. Resulting International Petroleum Monthly of the Energy Information liquid fuels production of 84.88 million b/d. Liquids production in total production of crude oil including lease condensates of Administration (EIA). Resulting in a total NGL production of 8.06 for July 2009 was revised upward in the IEA Oil Market Report of 71.78 million b/d. Crude oil production in the EIA International million b/d. August from 85.15 to 85.28 million b/d. Average global liquid Petroleum Monthly for May 2009 was revised downward from fuels production in 2009 up to August was 84.6 million b/d versus 71.8 to 71.33 million b/d. The all time high production record of 86.6 and 85.32 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007. crude oil stands at 74.74 million b/d reached in July 2008. Chart 2: Liquids Production January 2004 - August 2009 Chart 3: Crude Oil Production January 2004 - June 2009 Chart 4: Liquids Production January 2004 - June 2009 90 76 8.2 8.0 75 88 7.8 74 Million barrels per day 86 7.6 73 7.4 84 72 7.2 82 7.0 71 6.8 Liquids (IEA) 80 70 Crude Oil (EIA) Natural Gas Liquids (EIA) Liquids (EIA) 6.6 78 69 6.4 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: International Energy Agency & Energy Information Administration Source: Energy Information Administration Source: Energy Information Administration Page 2
  3. 3. World Oil Production ASPO Netherlands World conventional crude versus liquids production ratio World unconventional liquid fuels production World energy content from liquid fuels production Approximately 85% of world liquid fuels production in 2008 came In 2008 the biggest part of unconventional liquid fuels production In production statistics all liquid fuels are aggregated as total ‘oil’ from conventional crude oil including lease condensates. The came from Natural Gas Liquids at 11% or 7.94 million b/d. production while containing different amounts of energy per remaining share of 15% was produced by unconventional sources Secondly, extra heavy crude and bitumen at 3.4% or 2.68 million barrel produced. For example, a barrel of crude oil contains around including Biofuels, Extra Heavy Oil, Tar Sands, Polar Oil and Natural b/d of which 1.27 million b/d from Canadian oil sands and 1.41 5.8 million British Thermal Units while a similar barrel of natural Gas Liquids. In absolute amounts unconventional production has million b/d from other sources. Thirdly, Biofuels at 1.8% or 1.45 gas liquids contains 4.2 million BTU. Conversion to BTU’s shows increased steadily, from 4 million b/d at the end of the 1970s, to million b/d. A and finally Polar Oil at a production rate of 840,000 that actual available energy worldwide in June 2009 was 3.3% approximately 12.9 mb/d in 2008, excluding lease condensates. b/d in 2008 or 1.1% of total liquids supply. lower than liquids statistics counted in barrels would suggest. Chart 5: World Crude and Liquids production 1938 - 2008 Chart 6: Unconventional Oil Production 1938 - 2008 Chart 7: World Production in BTU January 2003 - August 2009 100 14 550 Liquids Biofuels Biofuels 90 X-Heavy crude (excl. Canada) Natural Gas Liquids Conventional crude 525 12 Canadian Oil Sands Crude Oil 80 Polar Oil 12m rolling average Natural Gas Liquids 500 70 10 Million barrels per day Trillion BTU per day 475 60 8 50 450 6 40 425 30 4 400 20 2 375 10 0 0 350 1938 1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 1938 1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: International Energy Agency & Energy Information Administration Source: EIA, EIA & CAPP Source: International Energy Agency Page 3
  4. 4. ASPO Netherlands World Oil Production World biofuels production IEA liquid fuels versus liquids excluding biofuels production EIA liquids versus IEA liquids excluding biofuels production Total world biofuel in August 2009 is estimated to be 1.58 million Total liquid fuels production excluding biofuels in August 2009 is Liquid fuels production figures published by the Energy b/d based on statistics compiled from the Energy Information estimated to be 83.33 million b/d, a decline of 400,000 b/d from Information Administration in their International Petroleum Administration, the International Energy Agency and the Brazilian July production according to the latest figures of the International Monthly exclude biofuels. These figures are comparable to total ministry of Energy. With an estimated 710,000 b/d from the Energy Agency. liquids statistics published by the International Energy Agency United States, 510,000 b/d from Brazil and 360,000 b/d from other when subtracting our estimate for world biofuels production. countries. Chart 8: World Biofuels Production Jan. 2004 - August 2009 Chart 9: IEA Liquids comparison January 2004 - August 2009 Chart 10: EIA & EIA Liquids Comparison Jan. 2004 - August 2009 1.8 90 88 1.6 87 88 86 1.4 86 85 Million barrels per day 1.2 84 1.0 84 83 0.8 82 82 0.6 80 81 0.4 80 Liquids excluding biofuels (IEA) Liquids excluding biofuels (IEA) 78 0.2 Biofuels (IEA) Liquids (IEA) Liquids (EIA) 79 0.0 76 78 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: IEA, EIA, Brazilian Ministry of Energy Source: Energy Information Administration Source: Energy Information Administration Page 4
  5. 5. OPEC Oil Production ASPO Netherlands OPEC liquid fuels production OPEC crude oil production OPEC natural gas liquids production Total liquid fuels production in OPEC countries increased by 50,000 Total crude oil production excluding lease condensates of the OPEC natural gas liquids remained stable from July to August b/d from July to August to a level of 34.16 million b/d. Average OPEC cartel increased by 50,000 b/d to a level of 28.80 million at a level of 5.36 million b/d. Average OPEC natural gas liquids liquid fuels production in 2009 up to August was 33.59 million b/d, from July to August 2009, according to the latest available production in 2009 up to August was 5.01 million b/d, versus 4.66 b/d, versus 36.09 and 35.02 million b/d in respectively 2008 and estimate of the IEA. Average crude oil production in 2009 up to and 4.55 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007. 2007. All time high production of OPEC liquid fuels stands at 36.58 August was 28.58 million b/d, versus 31.43 and 30.37 million b/d million b/d reached in July 2008. in respectively 2008 and 2007. Chart 11: OPEC Liquids Production Jan. 2004 - August 2009 Chart 12: OPEC Crude Oil Production Jan. 2004 - August 2009 Chart 13: OPEC NGL Production January 2004 - August 2009 38 33 6.0 37 32 5.5 36 31 5.0 Million barrels per day 35 30 34 4.5 29 33 4.0 28 32 3.5 27 31 Liquids (IEA) Crude Oil (IEA) Natural Gas Liquids (IEA) 3.0 30 Liquids (EIA) 26 Crude Oil (EIA) Natural Gas Liquids (EIA) 29 25 2.5 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: International Energy Agency & Energy Information Administration Source: Energy Information Administration Source: Energy Information Administration Page 5
  6. 6. ASPO Netherlands Non-OPEC Oil Production Non-OPEC liquid fuels production Non-OPEC crude oil production Non-OPEC natural gas liquids production Total liquid fuels production excluding biofuels in Non-OPEC Total Non-OPEC crude oil production excluding lease condensates Non-OPEC natural gas liquids production decreased by 117,000 countries decreased by 450,000 b/d from July to August 2009. increased by 162,000 b/d to a level of 41.24 million b/d, from May from May to June to a level of 3.30 million b/d. Average Non- Resulting in a production level of 49.17 million b/d according to to June 2009, according to the latest available estimate of the EIA. OPEC natural gas liquids production in 2009 up to August was the International Energy Agency. Average liquid fuels production Crude oil production in the EIA International Petroleum Monthly 3.41 million b/d, versus 3.65 and 3.79 million b/d in respectively in 2009 up to August was 49.51 million b/d, versus 49.32 and 49.34 for May 2009 was revised downward from 41.5 to 41.08 million 2008 and 2007. million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007. b/d. Average crude oil production in 2009 up to June was 41.51 million b/d, versus 41.32 and 41.80 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007. Chart 14: Non-OPEC Liquids Production Jan. 2004 - Aug. 2009 Chart 15: Non-OPEC Crude Oil Production Jan. 2004 - Aug. 2009 Chart 16: Non-OPEC NGL Production Jan. 2004 - August 2009 51 43 4.5 43 50 4.0 42 49 Million barrels per day 42 3.5 48 41 47 3.0 41 46 40 Liquids (IEA) 2.5 45 Crude oil (EIA) Natural Gas Liquids (EIA) Liquids (EIA) 40 44 39 2.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: International Energy Agency & Energy Information Administration Source: Energy Information Administration Source: Energy Information Administration Page 6
  7. 7. OPEC Oil Consumption ASPO Netherlands OPEC oil consumption Iran oil consumption Saudi Arabia oil consumption Oil consumption in all the OPEC oil producers combined increased Oil consumption in Iran increased by 10,000 b/d from May to June Oil consumption in Saudi Arabia increased by 193,000 b/d from by 235,000 b/d from May to June to a level of 6.25 million b/d. to a level of 1.50 million b/d. Average Iranian oil consumption in May to June to a level of 2.2 million b/d. Average Saudi Arabian oil Average OPEC oil consumption in 2009 up to June was 5.74 2009 up to June was 1.53 million b/d, versus 1.64 and 1.52 million consumption in 2009 up to June was 1.70 million b/d, versus 1.65 million b/d, versus 5.76 and 5.30 million b/d in respectively 2008 b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007. and 1.52 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007. and 2007. Chart 17: OPEC Oil Consumption January 2004 - June 2009 Chart 18: Iran Oil Consumption January 2004 - June 2009 Chart 19: Saudi Arabia Oil Consumption Jan. 2004 - June 2009 7 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.2 6 2.0 2.0 Million barrels per day 5 1.8 1.8 4 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.4 3 1.2 1.2 2 1.0 1.0 1 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0 Iran oil consumption (JODI) Saudi Arabia oil consumption (JODI) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 0.4 0.4 Iraq Venezuela 12m rolling average 12m rolling average UAE Saudi Arabia 0.2 0.2 Qatar Nigeria Libya Kuwait Iran Ecuador 0.0 0.0 Angola Algeria 12m rolling average 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative Page 7
  8. 8. ASPO Netherlands OECD Oil Consumption OECD oil consumption North America oil consumption European Union oil consumption Oil consumption in OECD countries increased by 659,000 b/d Oil consumption in North America increased by 274,000 b/d to Oil consumption in the European Union decreased by 122,000 from May to June to a level of 42.85 million b/d. Average OECD a level of 22.39 million b/d from May to June 2009. Average oil b/d from May to June to a level of 12.96 million b/d. Average oil consumption in 2009 up to June was 43.87 million b/d, versus consumption in North America in 2009 up to June was 22.44 consumption in the European Union in 2009 up to June was 13.57 46.10 and 47.68 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007. million b/d, versus 23.50 and 24.72 million b/d in respectively million b/d, versus 14.25 and 14.32 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007. 2008 and 2007. Chart 20: OECD Oil Consumption January 2004 - June 2009 Chart 21: North America Oil Consumption Jan. 2004 - June 2009 Chart 22: EU-27 Oil Consumption January 2004 - June 2009 52.0 26.6 15.6 51.0 26.0 15.2 50.0 25.4 49.0 14.8 48.0 24.8 14.4 Million barrels per day 47.0 24.2 14.0 46.0 23.6 45.0 13.6 23.0 44.0 13.2 43.0 22.4 42.0 12.8 21.8 41.0 12.4 OECD oil consumption (JODI) 21.2 North America oil consumption (JODI) EU-27 oil consumption (JODI) 40.0 12m rolling average 12m rolling average 12.0 12m rolling average 20.6 39.0 38.0 20.0 11.6 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative Page 8
  9. 9. OECD Oil Consumption ASPO Netherlands United States oil consumption Mexico oil consumption Canada oil consumption Oil consumption in the US increased by 166,000 b/d from May to Oil consumption in Mexico increased by 10,000 b/d to a level of Oil consumption in Canada increased by 98,000 b/d from Mau June to a level of 18.26 million b/d. Average consumption of oil in 1.95 million b/d. Average oil consumption in Mexico in 2009 up tp June to a level of 2.02 million b/d. Average consumption in the US in 2009 up to June was 18.61 million b/d, versus 19.50 and to June was 1.87 million b/d, versus 1.95 and 1.94 million b/d in Canada in 2009 up to June was 1.96 million b/d, versus 2.06 and 20.70 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007. respectively 2008 and 2007. 2.08 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007. Chart 23: US Oil Consumption January 2004 - June 2009 Chart 24: Mexico Oil Consumption Jan. 2004 - June 2009 Chart 25: Canada Oil Consumption January 2004 - June 2009 22 2.3 2.3 21 2.2 2.2 2.1 20 2.1 Million barrels per day 2.0 19 2.0 1.9 18 1.9 1.8 17 1.8 1.7 US oil consumption (JODI) Mexico oil consumption (JODI) Canada oil consumption (JODI) 16 1.7 12m rolling average 1.6 12m rolling average 12m rolling average 15 1.5 1.6 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative Page 9
  10. 10. ASPO Netherlands OECD Oil Consumption France oil consumption Germany oil consumption Italy oil consumption Oil consumption in France remained stable from May to June at Oil consumption in Germany decreased by 100,000 b/d to a level Oil consumption in Italy increased by 58,000 b/d from May to June 1.68 million b/d. Average consumption of oil in France in 2009 up of 2.31 million b/d from May to June. Average oil consumption in to a level of 1.54 million b/d. Average consumption in Italy in 2009 to June was 1.85 million b/d, versus 1.94 and 1.94 million b/d in Germany in 2009 up to June was 2.46 million b/d, versus 2.56 and up to June was 1.51 million b/d, versus 1.60 and 1.67 million b/d respectively 2008 and 2007. 2.47 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007. in respectively 2008 and 2007. Chart 26: France Oil Consumption January 2004 - June 2009 Chart 27: Germany Oil Consumption Jan. 2004 - June 2009 Chart 28: Italy Oil Consumption January 2004 - June 2009 2.3 3.0 2.2 2.9 2.1 2.2 2.8 2.0 2.7 1.9 2.1 Million barrels per day 2.6 1.8 2.0 2.5 1.7 2.4 1.6 1.9 2.3 1.5 2.2 1.4 1.8 2.1 1.3 France oil consumption (JODI) Germany oil consumption (JODI) Italy oil consumption (JODI) 2.0 1.2 1.7 12m rolling average 12m rolling average 12m rolling average 1.9 1.1 1.6 1.8 1.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative Page 10
  11. 11. OECD Oil Consumption ASPO Netherlands Spain oil consumption United Kingdom oil consumption Poland oil consumption Oil consumption in Spain increased by 81,000 b/d from May to Oil consumption in the United Kingdom remained stable around Oil consumption in Poland increased by 18,000 b/d from May to June to a level of 1.46 million b/d. Average oil consumption in 1.51 million b/d from May to June. Average oil consumption in the June to a level of 530,000 b/d. Average consumption in Poland in Spain in 2009 up to June was 1.48 million b/d, versus 1.54 and 1.59 United Kingdom in 2009 up to June was 1.58 million b/d, versus 2009 up to June was 489,000 b/d, versus 527,000 and 507,000 b/d million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007. 1.61 and 1.67 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007. in respectively 2008 and 2007. Chart 29: Spain Oil Consumption January 2004 - June 2009 Chart 30: UK Oil Consumption Jan. 2004 - June 2009 Chart 31: Poland Oil Consumption January 2004 - June 2009 1.8 2.2 0.8 2.1 0.7 1.7 2.0 1.9 0.6 Million barrels per day 1.6 1.8 0.5 1.7 1.5 1.6 0.4 1.5 0.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 0.2 Spain oil consumption (JODI) UK oil consumption (JODI) Poland oil consumption (JODI) 1.3 1.2 12m rolling average 12m rolling average 0.1 12m rolling average 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative Page 11
  12. 12. ASPO Netherlands OECD Oil Consumption Netherlands oil consumption Japan oil consumption South Korea oil consumption Oil consumption in the Netherlands decreased by 155,000 b/d Oil consumption in Japan increased by 301,000 b/d to a level of Oil consumption in South Korea decreased by 37,000 b/d to a level from May to June to a level of 687,000 million b/d. Average oil 4.18 million b/d from May to June 2009. Average oil consumption of 2.15 million b/d from May to June 2009. Average consumption consumption in the Netherlands in 2009 up to June was 868,000 in Japan in 2009 up to June was 4.45 million b/d, versus 4.92 and in South Korea in 2009 up to June was 2.29 million b/d, versus 2.21 b/d, versus 945,000 and 920,0000 b/d in respectively 2008 and 5.13 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007. and 2.29 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007. 2007. Chart 32: Netherlands Oil Consumption Jan. 2004 - June 2009 Chart 33: Japan Oil Consumption Jan. 2004 - June 2009 Chart 34: South Korea Oil Consumption Jan. 2004 - June 2009 1.2 7.0 3.0 6.5 2.8 1.1 6.0 2.6 Million barrels per day 1.0 5.5 2.4 0.9 5.0 2.2 4.5 2.0 0.8 4.0 1.8 Netherlands oil consumption (JODI) Japan oil consumption (JODI) South Korea oil consumption (JODI) 0.7 12m rolling average 3.5 12m rolling average 1.6 12m rolling average 0.6 3.0 1.4 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative Page 12
  13. 13. Asia Oil Consumption ASPO Netherlands China oil consumption India oil consumption Taiwan oil consumption Oil consumption in China increased by 654,000 b/d from May to Oil consumption in India increased by 144,000 b/d to a level of Oil consumption in Taiwan increased by 90,000 b/d to a level of June to a level of 8.19 million b/d. Average oil consumption in 2.96 million b/d. Average oil consumption in India in 2009 up to 1.05 million b/d from May to June 2009. Average consumption in China in 2009 up to June was 7.18 million b/d, versus 6.92 and June was 2.92 million b/d, versus 2.60 and 2.43 million b/d in Taiwan in 2009 up to June was 961,000 b/d, versus 978,000 and 7.29 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007. respectively 2008 and 2007. 958,000 b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007. Chart 35: China Oil Consumption January 2004 - June 2009 Chart 36: India Oil Consumption Jan. 2004 - June 2009 Chart 37: Taiwan Oil Consumption January 2004 - June 2009 10.0 3.4 1.4 9.5 3.2 1.3 9.0 3.0 1.2 8.5 2.8 1.1 Million barrels per day 8.0 2.6 7.5 1.0 2.4 7.0 0.9 2.2 6.5 0.8 2.0 6.0 0.7 1.8 5.5 China oil consumption (JODI) India oil consumption (JODI) 0.6 Taiwan oil consumption (JODI) 5.0 1.6 12m rolling average 12m rolling average 0.5 12m rolling average 4.5 1.4 4.0 1.2 0.4 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative Page 13
  14. 14. ASPO Netherlands OECD Crude Oil Stocks OECD crude oil stocks OECD product stocks Europe crude oil stocks Industrial inventories of crude oil in the OECD in July 2009 Industrial product stocks in the OECD in July 2009 increased to Industrial inventories of crude oil in OECD Europe in July 2009 increased to a level of 1012 million from 1011 million barrels in 1470 million from 1459 million barrels in June according to the decreased to 338 million from 343 million barrels in June June according to the latest IEA statistics. Current OECD crude latest IEA Statistics. Current OECD product stocks are 72 million according to the latest IEA statistics. Current OECD Europe crude oil stocks are 54 million barrels higher than the five year average barrels higher than the five year average of 1398 million barrels. In oil stocks are 2 million barrels higher than the five year average of of 958 million barrels. In the August Oil Market Report of the IEA the August Oil Market Report of the IEA a total stock level of 1467 336 million barrels. a total stock level of 990 million barrels was tabulated for June million barrels was tabulated for June which has been revised which has been revised upwards to 1011 million barrels in the downwards to 1459 million barrels in the September edition. September edition. Chart 38: OECD Crude Oil Stocks January 2004 - July 2009 Chart 39: OECD Product Stocks January 2004 - July 2009 Chart 40: Europe Crude Oil Stocks January 2004 - July 2009 1200 1600 425 400 1100 1500 375 Million barrels per day 1000 1400 350 325 900 1300 300 800 1200 275 250 700 1100 OECD crude oil stocks (IEA) OECD product stocks (IEA) Europe crude oil stocks (IEA) 225 600 1000 200 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: International Energy Agency Source: International Energy Agency Source: International Energy Agency Page 14
  15. 15. OECD Crude Oil Stocks ASPO Netherlands Europe product stocks Pacific crude oil stocks Pacific product stocks Industrial product stocks in OECD Europe in July 2009 remained Industrial inventories of crude oil in OECD Pacific in July 2009 Industrial product stocks in OECD Pacific in July 2009 increased to stable at 571 million barrels from June according to the latest increased to a level of 178 million from 170 million barrels in June 170 million from 165 million barrels in June according to the latest IEA statistics. Current OECD Europe product stocks are 21 million according to the latest IEA statistics. Current OECD Pacific crude IEA Statistics. Current OECD Pacific product stocks are 11 million barrels higher than the five year average of 550 million barrels. oil stocks are 8 million barrels lower than the five year average of barrels lower than the five year average of 181 million barrels. 170 million barrels. Chart 41: Europe Product Stocks January 2004 - July 2009 Chart 42: Pacific Crude Oil Stocks January 2004 - July 2009 Chart 43: Pacific Product Stocks January 2004 - July 2009 650 250 250 625 225 225 600 200 575 Million barrels per day 200 175 550 525 150 175 500 125 150 475 100 450 125 Europe product stocks (IEA) Pacific crude oil stocks (IEA) Pacific product stocks (IEA) 75 425 400 50 100 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: International Energy Agency Source: International Energy Agency Source: International Energy Agency Page 15
  16. 16. ASPO Netherlands OECD Crude Oil Stocks North America crude oil stocks North America product stocks US gasoline stocks Industrial inventories of crude oil in OECD North America in July Industrial product stocks in OECD Pacific in July 2009 increased to Gasoline stocks in the United States in August 2009 decreased to 2009 decreased to a level of 497 million from 499 million barrels 730 million from 723 million barrels in June according to the latest 209 million from 214 million barrels in July according to the latest in June according to the latest IEA statistics. Current OECD North IEA Statistics. Current OECD Pacific product stocks are 32 million EIA Statistics. Current Gasoline stocks are 1 million barrels lower America crude oil stocks are 44 million barrels lower than the barrels higher than the five year average of 693 million barrels. than the five year average of 208 million barrels. five year average of 453 million barrels. In the August Oil Market Report of the IEA a total stock level of 487 million barrels was tabulated for June which has been revised upwards to 499 million barrels in the September edition. Chart 44: North America Crude Oil Stocks Jan. 2004 - May 2009 Chart 45: North America Product Stocks Jan. 2004 - June 2009 Chart 46: United States Gasoline Stocks Jan. 2004 - July 2009 600 800 300 575 275 550 750 525 250 500 700 Million barrels per day 475 225 450 650 425 200 400 600 175 375 350 550 150 325 300 North America crude oil stocks (IEA) 500 North America product stocks (IEA) US gasoline stocks (EIA) 125 275 250 450 100 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: International Energy Agency Source: International Energy Agency Source: Energy Information Administration Page 16
  17. 17. Oil Imports & Exports ASPO Netherlands Mexico oil exports United Kingdom oil exports Norway oil exports Oil exports from Mexico decreased by 172,000 b/d from 4th qrt. Oil exports from the United Kingdom decreased by 73,000 b/d Oil exports from Norway increased by 37,000 b/d from 4th qrt. 2008 to 1st qrt. 2009 to a level of 1.40 million b/d. Average oil 4th qrt. 2008 to 1st qrt. 2009 to a level of 876,000 b/d. Average 2008 to 1st qrt. 2009 to a level of 1.91 million b/d. Average oil export from Mexico in 2008 was 1.55 million b/d, versus 1.85 and oil export from the United Kingdom in 2008 was 957,000 b/d, export from Norway in 2008 was 1.67 million b/d, versus 1.97 and 2.04 million b/d in respectively 2007 and 2006. versus 1.02 and 1.00 million b/d in respectively 2007 and 2006. 2.17 million b/d in respectively 2007 and 2006. Since 2004 the United Kingdom became a net importer of oil. Net imports were 186,000 b’/d in 1st qrt. 2009. Chart 47: Mexico oil exports 1st qrt. 2002 - 1st qrt. 2009 Chart 48: UK oil exports 1st qrt. 2002 - 1st qrt. 2009 Chart 49: Norway oil exports 1st qrt. 2002 - 1st qrt. 2009 4.0 3.0 3.6 2.8 3.4 3.5 2.6 3.2 2.4 3.0 3.0 2.2 2.8 Million barrels per day 2.0 2.6 2.5 1.8 2.4 1.6 2.0 2.2 1.4 2.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.0 1.6 1.0 0.8 0.6 1.4 Liquids exports (IEA) Liquids exports (IEA) Liquids exports (IEA) 0.4 1.2 0.5 Liquids Production (IEA) Liquids Production (IEA) Liquids Production (IEA) 0.2 Liquids imports (IEA) 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: International Energy Agency Source: International Energy Agency Source: International Energy Agency Page 17
  18. 18. ASPO Netherlands Oil Imports & Exports Denmark oil exports Australia oil exports Japan oil imports Oil exports from Denmark decreased by 17,000 b/d from 4th qrt. Oil exports from Australia decreased by 47,000 b/d from 4th qrt. Oil imports in Japan decreased by 64,000 b/d from 4th qrt. 2008 2008 to 1st qrt. 2009 to a level of 167,000 b/d. Average oil export 2008 to 1st qrt. 2009 to a level of 260,000 b/d. Average oil export to 1st qrt. 2009 to a level of 3.87 million b/d. Average oil import in from Denmark in 2008 was 184,000 b/d, versus 191,000 and from Australia in 2008 was 270,000 b/d, versus 252,000 b/d and Japan in 2008 was 4.12 million b/d, versus 4.09 and 4.15 million 233,000 b/d in respectively 2007 and 2006. 217,000 b/d in respectively 2007 and 2006. b/d in respectively 2007 and 2006. Chart 50: Denmark oil exports 1st qrt. 2002 - 1st qrt. 2009 Chart 51: Australia oil exports 1st qrt. 2002 - 1st qrt. 2009 Chart 52: Japan Oil Imports 1st qrt. 2002 - 1st qrt. 2009 0.60 1.0 5.0 Liquids exports (IEA) Liquids exports (IEA) 0.55 0.9 Liquids Production (IEA) Liquids Production (IEA) 4.8 0.50 Liquids imports (IEA) 0.8 Liquids imports (IEA) 4.6 0.45 0.7 Million barrels per day 0.40 4.4 0.35 0.6 4.2 0.30 0.5 4.0 0.25 0.4 0.20 3.8 0.3 0.15 3.6 0.2 0.10 Liquids (IEA) 0.1 3.4 0.05 0.00 0.0 3.2 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: International Energy Agency Source: International Energy Agency Source: International Energy Agency Page 18
  19. 19. Oil Imports & Exports ASPO Netherlands OECD oil imports United States oil imports OECD Europe oil imports Oil imports in the group of OECD countries decreased by 1.60 Oil imports in the United States decreased by 661,000 b/d from 4th Oil imports from OECD Europe decreased by 854,000 b/d from 4th million b/d from 4th qrt. 2008 to 1st qrt. 2009 to a level of 30.43 qrt. 2008 to 1st qrt. 2009 to a level of 10.84 million b/d. Average oil qrt. 2008 to 1st qrt. 2009 to a level of 11.98 million b/d. Average million b/d. Average oil import in OECD countries in 2008 was import in the United States in 2008 was 11.43 million b/d, versus oil import in OECD Europe in 2008 was 12.98 million b/d, versus 32.19 million b/d, versus 32.47 and 32.7 million b/d in respectively 11.55 and 11.77 million b/d in respectively 2007 and 2006. 13.05 and 13.18 million b/d in respectively 2007 and 2006. 2007 and 2006. Chart 53: OECD Oil Imports 1st qrt. 2002 - 1st qrt. 2009 Chart 54: US Oil Imports 1st qrt. 2002 - 1st qrt. 2009 Chart 55: OECD Europe Oil Imports 1st qrt. 2002 - 1st qrt. 2009 34.0 13.0 14.0 33.5 12.5 13.5 33.0 12.0 32.5 Million barrels per day 13.0 11.5 32.0 31.5 11.0 12.5 31.0 10.5 12.0 30.5 10.0 30.0 Liquids (IEA) 11.5 Liquids (IEA) Liquids (IEA) 9.5 29.5 29.0 9.0 11.0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: International Energy Agency Source: International Energy Agency Source: International Energy Agency Page 19

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