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Charts book watch list - feb 14, 2012


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Charts book watch list - feb 14, 2012

  1. 1. JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE Watch List (1) CHARTS BOOK 20 Stocks to Watch By: Ramy Rashad, CMT
  2. 2. JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE WATCH LIST (1) Tuesday, February 14, 2012 INDEX :Name Code Page Name Code PageOrascom Construction Industries OCIC.CA 3 United Housing & Development UNIT.CA 17Commercial International Bank- Egypt COMI.CA 4 Samad Misr (Egyfert) SMFR.CA 18Egyptian Company for Mobile Services EMOB.CA 5 EFG-Hermes Holding HRHO.CA 19Talaat Moustafa Group Holding TMGH.CA 6 Pioneers Holding PIOH.CA 20El Sewedy Electric SWDY.CA 7 National Company for Maize Products NCMP.CA 21National Societe Generale Bank NSGB.CA 8 Egyptian for Tourism Resorts EGTS.CA 22Maridive & Oil Services Co MOIL.CA 9Juhayna Food Industries JUFO.CA 10El Kahera Housing & Development ELKA.CA 11Palm Hills Development PHDC.CA 12Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals SKPC.CA 13Al Baraka Bank – Egypt SAUD.CA 14Egyptian Financial and Industrial Co. EFIC.CA 15Medinet Nasr Housing and Development MNHD.CA 16CHARTS BOOK 2
  3. 3. JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE WATCH LIST (1) Tuesday, February 14, 2012ORASCOM CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRIES RIC: OCIC.CABOTTOM LINE: (Last Price: EGP266.43 )Do you remember our immediately prior recommen-dation when we advised “system traders” to Buy? Wewere, in fact, trading MACD which was signaling itssecond important buy signal.Who bought based on MACD should get out basedalso on it. So far, we havent any sell signal but ex-tremely overbought reading. Bearish candle withpickup in trading activity may induce you to take on-ly small profits and to get out near our target(EGP280), or after a bearish crossover in MACD.You are also advised to Buy dips to lower supportSIGNIFICANT LEVELS: First Second ThirdSupport 265 250 245Resistance 270 280 -Stop loss - - -Target 280 - -CHARTS BOOK 3
  4. 4. JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE WATCH LIST (1) Tuesday, February 14, 2012COMMERCIAL INTERNATIONAL BANK- EGYPT RIC: COMI.CABOTTOM LINE: (Last Price: EGP24.34 )We had referred, in several technical researches, tothis falling channel as a third phase in a bear market;Overall structure, Momentum and volume patternwere our main clues that the security is falling fromits own weight and sellers are getting weaker andweaker, but we were waiting for buyers to come in.Taking out this falling channel, with thrust in momen-tum and volume, indicates that the balance is turningout in the favor of bulls and as a result we recom-mend traders to Buy Dips.SIGNIFICANT LEVELS: First Second ThirdSupport 23.90 23.35 22.0Resistance 26.0 27.0 28.0Stop loss 22.50 - -Target 31.0 - -CHARTS BOOK 4
  5. 5. JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE WATCH LIST (1) Tuesday, February 14, 2012EGYPTIAN COMPANY FOR MOBILE SERVICES RIC: EMOB.CABOTTOM LINE: (Last Price: EGP137.89 )“Charts reflect everything”. This tenet makes senseto most technicians. Our first buy signal was based ona bullish crossover in MACD in weekly chart (seesymbol). A decisive down breakout below the sym-metrical triangle forced us out, however, the MACDdidnt slide below its signal line. A return back to thetriangle, negating its bearish implications, triggeredour second buy stop. Taking out the major decliningchannel triggered our third buy signal. Now, withthree weekly long white candles, the odds still in thefavor fulfilling our targets.SIGNIFICANT LEVELS: First Second ThirdSupport 130 120 -Resistance 150 160 190Stop loss 129 - -Target 150 190 -CHARTS BOOK 5
  6. 6. JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE WATCH LIST (1) Tuesday, February 14, 2012TALAAT MOUSTAFA GROUP HOLDING RIC: TMGH.CABOTTOM LINE: (Last Price: EGP4.55 )The security hovers well over the most important sup-port zone (3.8/ 4.0), over the 50 and 200-day EMAs.Momentums are in the bulls side and the security isheading to our prospected target @ EGP5.30.We sense a weakness, which may send the securityjust to lower support levels, however, we recommendtraders to Buy Dips.SIGNIFICANT LEVELS: First Second ThirdSupport 4.15 4.0 -Resistance 5.0 5.30 -Stop loss 3.8 - -Target 5.30 - -CHARTS BOOK 6
  7. 7. JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE WATCH LIST (1) Tuesday, February 14, 2012EL SEWEDY ELECTRIC RIC: SWDY.CABOTTOM LINE: (Last Price: EGP25.78 )After a decisive up-breakout over the perfect classicHead and Shoulders bottoming pattern, the securitynearly fulfilled our measured target (dotted brownline) and is currently under a complete in-decisionstate. why? We think that the 200-day EMA may of-fers an answer. This average carries a magnificent im-portance and current vacillation makes a lot of sense.Our traders were advised to buy a breakout over ahorizontal red neckline @ 23.0 and also were advisedto buy a pull back to that level. Now, traders are ad-vised to buy a breakout over 26.45.SIGNIFICANT LEVELS: First Second ThirdSupport 25.25 24 23Resistance 26.45 27 28Stop loss 23 - -Target 27 30 -CHARTS BOOK 7
  8. 8. JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE WATCH LIST (1) Tuesday, February 14, 2012NATIONAL SOCIETE GENERALE BANK RIC: NSGB.CABOTTOM LINE: (Last Price: EGP28.26 )Do your remember when we referred to the beautifulH&S in this security. Volume& Momentum were inour side and, fortunately, our target, EGP27.45, hasbeen fulfilled.We have a bottom and currently we have a by-bookprofit-taking pattern. We suspect that a Flag, whichresting just on the 200-day EMA, is taking place andthe security had penetrated its declining resistanceline. If so, expect a thrust move to our target nearEGP32.0. We recommend traders to Buy in.SIGNIFICANT LEVELS: First Second ThirdSupport 27.45 26.40 26.25Resistance 30.0 31/ 32Stop loss 26.20 - -Target 31.0 32.0 -CHARTS BOOK 8
  9. 9. JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE WATCH LIST (1) Tuesday, February 14, 2012MARIDIVE & OIL SERVICES CO RIC: MOIL.CABOTTOM LINE: (Last Price: USD1.81 )The overall structure seems favorable but, for short-term perspective, a lateral action is taking place be-tween USD1.6 and USD1.82 as support and re-sistance levels, respectively. Taking out the resistancelevel will force the security to the next juncture level;USD2.0. We suspect that a bottom pattern is takingplace, but the Negative reversal signal in MACD in-dicates that the odds are in the favor of a continuationof the current sideway phase. Traders are advised totrade a range (1.60/ 1.82 & 1.82/ 2.0), buy a breakoutover USD1.82, take some profits near USD2.0 andhide-in-cash below USD1.6SIGNIFICANT LEVELS: First Second ThirdSupport 1.80 1.60 -Resistance 1.82 2.0 2.20Stop loss 1.60 - -Target 2.0 2.20 3.60CHARTS BOOK 9
  10. 10. JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE WATCH LIST (1) Tuesday, February 14, 2012JUHAYNA FOOD INDUSTRIES RIC: JUFO.CABOTTOM LINE: (Last Price: EGP4.90 )The overall structure seems favorable, especially af-ter a very bullish reading in the RSI (see yellow cir-cle), but we sense a vacillation state in the security atcurrent levels.You are advised to take some profits, buy a weak dipto lower support zone and/or buy a breakout over 5.0targeting 5.30.SIGNIFICANT LEVELS: First Second ThirdSupport 4.8 4.5 4.4Resistance 5 5.25 -Stop loss 4.4 - -Target 5.3 - -CHARTS BOOK 10
  11. 11. JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE WATCH LIST (1) Tuesday, February 14, 2012EL KAHERA HOUSING & DEVELOPMENT RIC: ELKA.CABOTTOM LINE: (Last Price: EGP4.74 )It seems clear that the security faces a very hard ob-stacle on its way up to the second juncture level.However, failing to continue all the way down to thestructure support level and a bounce back over re-sistance may constitutes a starting point for a forth-coming thrust.Buy a breakout over EGP5.0, take profits nearEGP5.5 and cut losses below 4.60.SIGNIFICANT LEVELS: First Second ThirdSupport 4.70 4.60 4.25Resistance 4.75 5.0 5.5Stop loss 4.60 - -Target 5.0 5.5 -CHARTS BOOK 11
  12. 12. JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE WATCH LIST (1) Tuesday, February 14, 2012PALM HILLS DEVELOPMENT RIC: PHDC.CABOTTOM LINE: (Last Price: EGP1.74 )Finally the security found a bottom, and clearing sev-eral resistance levels on the way up may take placeshortly, but with yesterday’s candle and spike in trad-ing activity, you are advised to take some profits.A decline to immediately preceding support zone maytake place and at which, you are advised to long thesecurity again targeting EGP2.0.SIGNIFICANT LEVELS: First Second ThirdSupport 1.7 1.5 1.4Resistance 1.8 2.0 -Stop loss 1.4 - -Target 2.0 - -CHARTS BOOK 12
  13. 13. JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE WATCH LIST (1) Tuesday, February 14, 2012SIDI KERIR PETROCHEMICALS RIC: SKPC.CABOTTOM LINE: (Last Price: EGP13.75 )A return back over the broken major trend line waseverything any trader want to negates the bearishnessof a negative impact.As expected, a failure move always followed by athrust move.Now the security is under a healthy profit-takingphase and a thrust to our target is highly predictable.Risk takers can buy dips to lower support zone and alltraders are advised to ride the next thrust move.SIGNIFICANT LEVELS: First Second ThirdSupport 13.5 13.0 -Resistance 14.5 15.0 -Stop loss 13.0 - -Target 15.5 - -CHARTS BOOK 13
  14. 14. JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE WATCH LIST (1) Tuesday, February 14, 2012AL BARAKA BANK – EGYPT RIC: SAUD.CABOTTOM LINE: (Last Price: EGP9.82 )After fulfilling our up-side target (EGP10.0), weshould salute ourselves. Traders who bought our sig-nal near EGP9.0, should take some profits near cur-rent levels.The current structure still favorable, the up-trend iseasily seen without using any complicated techniquesand a decline to lower support levels should triggersyour Buy stop. A decisive up-breakout over EGP10.0should also triggers your buy stop to EGP11.0SIGNIFICANT LEVELS: First Second ThirdSupport 9.5 9.0 -Resistance 10 11 -Stop loss 9.0 - -Target 10 11 -CHARTS BOOK 14
  15. 15. JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE WATCH LIST (1) Tuesday, February 14, 2012EGYPTIAN FINANCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL CO. RIC: EFIC.CABOTTOM LINE: (Last Price: EGP11.55 )Taking out the falling intermediate channel isntsomething occurs in a daily basis; it’s a more thanwelcomed signal.A decisive up-breakout over EGP12.0 offers a won-derful buy signal; you dont need to miss it :)RSI’s structure indicates that the breakout may takeplace shortly but you get paid in prices not the RSI,so put it in your watching list and stick to our tradingsignal.SIGNIFICANT LEVELS: First Second ThirdSupport 11 10 -Resistance 12 13 15Stop loss 10 - -Target 16 - -CHARTS BOOK 15
  16. 16. JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE WATCH LIST (1) Tuesday, February 14, 2012MEDINET NASR HOUSING AND DEVELOPMENT RIC: MNHD.CABOTTOM LINE: (Last Price: EGP13.25 )Pure price analysis says BUYVolume says BUYRSI says BUYMACD says BUYBUY & Respect lower levelsSIGNIFICANT LEVELS: First Second ThirdSupport 13.0 - -Resistance 16.0 - -Stop loss 12.5 - -Target 16.0 - -CHARTS BOOK 16
  17. 17. JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE WATCH LIST (1) Tuesday, February 14, 2012UNITED HOUSING & DEVELOPMENT RIC: UNIT.CABOTTOM LINE: (Last Price: EGP5.69 )What a beautiful bottom, what a beautiful thrust andwhat a beautiful momentum.Our keen readers have a winning positions in this se-curity and we have, somehow, a reasonable assurancethat the security is going to our mentioned targetEGP6.5, but knowing the security’s character is amust to play it well; RIDE THE THRUST, TAKEPROFITS WHEN A VACILLATION ARISE ANDTHEN BUY WEAKNESS.SIGNIFICANT LEVELS: First Second ThirdSupport 5.25 5.0 4.5Resistance 6.5 - -Stop loss 5.0 4.5 -Target 6.5 - -CHARTS BOOK 17
  18. 18. JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE WATCH LIST (1) Tuesday, February 14, 2012SAMAD MISR (EGYFERT) RIC: SMFR.CABOTTOM LINE: (Last Price: EGP6.24 )A classic bottom is materializing in this security; abreakout over a slanting down neckline, red line, hastriggered a buy signal to old-fashioned analysts.Volume pattern is giving fuel to the situation and mo-mentum structure tells that everything is just perfect.The pattern’s target revolves around EGP7.0 , but weexpect sellers to come in near the major decliningtrend lines. You are advised to Buy a Pull back to thebroken neckline. Respect the stop loss levels.SIGNIFICANT LEVELS: First Second ThirdSupport 6.0 5.70 5.50Resistance 6.90 7.0 7.40Stop loss 6.0 5.70 -Target 7.50 9.0 -CHARTS BOOK 18
  19. 19. JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE WATCH LIST (1) Tuesday, February 14, 2012EFG-HERMES HOLDING RIC: HRHO.CABOTTOM LINE: (Last Price: EGP12.91 )The security lags the market as seen via the RelativeStrength Comparative (lower panel).Taking out the medium-term resistance levelEGP12.0, was the first step in a bottom phase.Declining volume accompanying the current rallyshould be regarded as a red flag.A decline to near 12 should triggers your short-termbuy stop as long as the RSI keeps its rising trend lineintact.SIGNIFICANT LEVELS: First Second ThirdSupport 12.0 11.70 11.25Resistance 13 13.5 14Stop loss 11 - -TargetCHARTS BOOK 19
  20. 20. JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE WATCH LIST (1) Tuesday, February 14, 2012PIONEERS HOLDING RIC: PIOH.CABOTTOM LINE: (Last Price: EGP3.94 )It’s our security ;) our keen readers know that forsure. We were following this security and had have asignificant winning positions to our clients. Our firstbuy signal was near EGP2.90, recommended tradersto take profits near EGP3.6 with more than 24% ap-preciation in value!!! We waited for the security topull back and initiated the second buy signal nearEGP3.40. our keen readers still have a winning posi-tion and we continue to recommend a Hold/ Buy dipsstrategy. (see our Technical Tips– Jan 17, 2012)SIGNIFICANT LEVELS: First Second ThirdSupport 3.90 3.60 3.30Resistance 4.20 4.5 4.80Stop loss 3.3 - -Target 5.0 5.30 -CHARTS BOOK 20
  21. 21. JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE WATCH LIST (1) Tuesday, February 14, 2012NATIONAL COMPANY FOR MAIZE PRODUCTS RIC: NCMP.CABOTTOM LINE: (Last Price: EGP14.97 )This is what we’re talking about. Finally the securityhad cleared a strong medium-term declining trendline. Momentum also behaves like a released prisonerand the balance is turning in the favor of bullsLiquidity risk is the main issue in trading this securityand unless you have a long-term exposure, you areadvised to stand aside.Your are advised to Buy dips with a firm stop belowEGP14.0.SIGNIFICANT LEVELS: First Second ThirdSupport 14.60 14.0 -Resistance 15 16 -Stop loss 14Target 18 - -CHARTS BOOK 21
  22. 22. JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE WATCH LIST (1) Tuesday, February 14, 2012EGYPTIAN FOR TOURISM RESORTS RIC: EGTS.CABOTTOM LINE: (Last Price: EGP1.10 )what a magnificent penetration! It has everything youmight dream about; violent thrust, healthy pull back,pick up in trading activity and strengthen in momen-tum indicators.Two scenarios in this situation; a larger bottom maybe taking place or the bulls will kick the bears outtaking the security to very higher levels. The securityfaces a concentration of supply from the 200-dayEMA and a decline may materialize. You are advisedto either Buy dips to lower support levels or Buy abreakout over EGP1.10.SIGNIFICANT LEVELS: First Second ThirdSupport 1.07 1.05 1.0Resistance 1.10 1.20 1.30Stop loss .96 - -Target 1.25 1.60 -CHARTS BOOK 22
  23. 23. JAZIRA SECURITIES BROKERAGE WATCH LIST (1) Tuesday, February 14, 2012 Jazira Securities Brokerage Jazira Securities Online Trading 15 Shooting Club Street, Mohandessin You can trade online through Jazira Securities online Tel: (+202) 3760 9983 - 37609941 trading portal ... Fax: (+202) 3760 9883 Please contact our customer Service representatives for further information..JSB Contacts Title Land Line Mobile EmailHussein El Sawalhy, CFA Managing Director (+202) 3760 9915 +20100 1410 690 helsawalhy@jaziracapital.comAhmed Helmy Head of Sales & Trading (+202) 3760 9915 +20100 1004 482 ahelmy@jaziracapital.comRamy Rashad, CMT Senior Technical Analyst (+202) 3760 9973 +20100 8385 501 rrashad@jaziracapital.comMomen El-Shayal Technical Analyst (+202) 3760 9983 +20100 7678 545 frefaat@jaziracapital.comGeorge Mansour Customer Service (+202) 3760 9941 +20122 9214 069 gmansour@jaziracapital.comDoaa Osman Customer Service (+202) 3760 9941 +20122 7552 436 dosman@jaziracapital.comBasant Soror Online Trading Technical Support (+202) 3760 9941 +20122 1615 409 Disclaimer  Jazira Securities Brokerage (JSB) is a licensed Egyptian Stock Market Broker, regulated by the Egyptian Financial Service Authority.  Opinions, estimates and projections contained in the research reports or documents are of the author as of the date published and are subject to change without notice  JSB research reports or documents are not, and are not to be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities.  Unless otherwise noted, all JSB research reports and documents provide information of a general nature and do not address the circumstances of any particular investor.  Neither JSB nor its mother company (Jazira Capital), or any of its affiliates accept liability whatsoever for any investment loss arising from any use of the research reports or their contents.  The information and opinions contained in JSB research reports or documents have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness.  JSB, Jazira Capital or any of its affiliates and/or their respective officers, directors or employees may from time to time acquire, hold or sell securities mentioned herein as principal or agent.  JSB research reports and all the information opinions and conclusions contained in them are protected by copyright.  The research reports or documents may not be reproduced or distributed in whole or in part without express consent of JSB Research.  JSB research reports or documents, recommendations and information are subject to change without further notice .CHARTS BOOK 23