When Steve told me you were having this discussion on social media, I was very excited to participate.Not only is this a topic that’s relevant to my day job, I care about this topic so much as a citizen I participated in Seattle Mayor Mike McGinn’sGov 2.0 taskforceAt Microsoft, I concentrate on Long Range Strategy in the Information Worker PMG, the home of MS Office, SharePoint, Exchange and a few others. I collect and analyze trends that are unfolding over the next 3-5 years and help our products meet the upcoming needs of our customers and partners. While I share a few of those trends with you today, “social media” will have the biggest impact.While I’m generally an optimist who believes in the positive potential of social media, I have also become very concerned about its dark side and wanted to share some aspects that I don’t think are getting enough attention.
I’m not just talking about the ‘internet’ This beautiful thing is a map the “internet” , showing how the worlds IP addresses are distributed. For over a decade, we’ve been surfing the web and sending documents and other files from one end to the other. This has already had a major impact on commerce and culture, but over the last few years there has been an even bigger development with broader implications. We’ve gone from this, a network of computers…
To this, a network people. Real people with rich profiles and deep relationships where staying in touch and informed is now trivially easy. The average teenager on facebook has over 200 friends, and it doesn't matter if there in the next city or on the other side of the planet.
So let’s backup a little and talk about what’s so “social” about “social media”
10 Years = 7 Doublings = 27 = 128 Times today’s capacity
Wikipedia is now the classic example. I can’t imagine any company today that sees a future in hiring loads of experts to write and edit an encyclopedia. You can’t compete with free. Or, as Clay Shirky puts it, Love. The largest increase in collaboration capacity in the last 500 years: First printing press - Phone - Recorded sound, photos, movies - TV/RadioNow it’s not just a source of information, but the start of collective action. It’s fundamentally changing the way that people handle information, they aren’t just passive consumers, but at little, to no additional costs, they can also produce information and be more active participans in how its used.
Raise you hand if you’ve used Picassa or any other photorecognition software. It’s quite fun and addictive, I’ve been surprised at how good it getting. It’s picked up faces in a mirror and even one that was transferred onto a birthday cake. Now, a start-up called Face.com is able to do this across the entire internet. Give it your facebook friends list and it can find them on any picture ever posted online: fb, flickr, eventually even youtube videos.Secondly, with the growth of semantic & linked data, sophisticated ‘mashups’ and advanced visualization systems can give people a better insights into complex information.
Waze is the first free turn by turn GPS app that uses crowd sourcing to detect real time traffic conditions. Users can also communicate information about whats happening on the road (police, accidents, construction, cheap gas etc) straight from their phones.
Galaxy Zoo is an online astronomy project which invites members of the public to assist in classifying over a million galaxies. No knowledge of astronomy is required. In the site's tutorial, would-be volunteers are shown spirals, ellipticals etc., and can try guessing before being shown the correct answer. Oxford researchers were able to cut a job that normally takes two years down to four months.--------------Foldit – “solving puzzles for science” is a revolutionary new computer game enabling you to contribute to important scientific research. Again, you don’t need advanced knowledge, the mechanics have been broken down so its like a rubikscude you play with until the lights start to go off.
Private insurance companies as well as government agencies which provide social services conduct investigations on people enrolled in their plans, looking for evidence to deny benefitsThe internet is a goldmine for snooping. Nathalie Blanchard took long-term sick leave from her job for severe depression. She was receiving benefits from her insurance company, until they denied her coverage siting several pictures from Facebook that showed her enjoying herself.
It’s how we use it.
Some examples are starting to emerge of what forms Democracy 2.0 will look like. Formal process of engaging with government agencies as well as direct efforts to support and/or work around government
Plummeting Coordination Costs<br />"We have lived in this world where little things are done for love and big things for money. Now we have Wikipedia. Suddenly big things can be done for love." — Clay Shirky<br />
One<br />Individuals are becoming super-empowered<br />Well ahead of moral, <br />Fundamental issues of Freedom & Privacy are being<br />One<br />Super Powered Individuals<br />http://www.flickr.com/photos/46676096@N08/<br />
All<br />Legal<br />Regulatory<br />Transparency<br />Infrastructure<br />Governance<br />Are you a Programmer or one of the Programmed?<br />ALL<br />Holding it together<br />"Man's population and gross product are increasing at a considerable rate, but the complexity of his problems grows still faster, and the urgency with which solutions must be found becomes steadily greater… the grand challenge is to boost the collective IQ of organizations and society" -Doug Engelbart, 1962<br />http://www.flickr.com/photos/sirius-pink/<br />