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Global Competition Victor Camlek VP Market Intelligence Thomson Reuters Feb. 28, 2012
Measuring Global Competition• Global competitiveness is difficult to state as a simple metric• GC is viewed in a number of...
Economic Leadership• GDP offers a standard measurement of economic performance• Three leading sources provide GDP PPP fore...
Top 10 Global Economies Based on PPP     • Chart displays growth in China’s GDP heading toward global leadership     • GDP...
The Global Innovation Index (GII)                   • Source: Insead, 2011                   • Detailed global analysis   ...
The Global Innovation Index• Computed as an average of the scores across inputs pillars  (describing the enabling environm...
GII Number One Ranking: Switzerland• Switzerland achieved first place in the overall 2011 GII rankings (up  from position ...
GII: Innovation LeadersCountry       Scale (0-    Income              2011        2010        2009              100)Switze...
GII: Additional Countries of InterestCountry      Scale (0-    Income              2011        2010        2009           ...
GII: Rankings Within The Pillars ShowVariations in Performance and LeadershipScientific Output Scale                      ...
World Economic Forum                • Source: The Global Competitiveness                  Report 2011-2012. World Economic...
Global Competitiveness ReportCountry                   Score                   2011-2012               2010-2011Switzerlan...
Global Competitiveness Report Summary• Switzerland tops the overall rankings• Singapore overtakes Sweden for second positi...
Global Competitiveness Report Summary• Germany maintains a strong position within the Eurozone, although it  goes down one...
Global Competitiveness Report Summary• The People’s Republic of China (26th) continues to lead the way  among large develo...
Measuring Research and Development                • Source: 2012 Global R&D                  Funding Forecast             ...
Headlines• US Industry R&D Increases 3.8% to $280 billion• Growing worldwide emphasis on basic research• Global R&D Spendi...
Trends in R&D• Global R&D spending is  expected to grow by about 5.2%       Share of Total Global R&D Spending  to more th...
Global R&D Forecast                      19
R&D Forecast Trends• Emerging economies are increasing their global technological  presence• Economic issues in establishe...
Measuring Trends In Education                                21
Number of College Degrees Worldwide                          National Bureau of Economic Research                         ...
University Enrollment                                                                                                     ...
Number of First University/Doctoral Degrees                                                                               ...
CGS International Graduate AdmissionsSurvey – International Applications byDiscipline                                     ...
Patent Filings                 26
Global Patent Data                                          •Worldwide filings rebounded in 2010                          ...
Research Metrics                   28
ESI Listings: By PapersRank Country               Papers         Citations     Cites per paper1    USA                    ...
Sorted by CitationsRank   Country      Papers     Citations          Cites per paper1      USA           3,049,662 48,862,...
Research Metrics                   • Source: Thomson Reuters (2010) Global                     Research Report, United Sta...
Research Metrics                   • Source: Thomson Reuters (2009) Global                     Research Report, China Nove...
China: Dramatic Growth    100           •   The numbers of papers from large regions make it tricky to appreciate change. ...
IMPACT PROFILE CURVES ENABLE A RICH    COMPARISON    40%                                                                  ...
Research Metrics                   • Source: Thomson Reuters . Global                     Research Report, Brazil, June 20...
Research Metrics                   • Source: Thomson Reuters. Global                     Research Report, India, October 2...
Research Metrics                   • Source: Thomson Reuters. Global                     Research Report, Japan, June 2010...
Research Metrics                   • Source: Thomson Reuters. Global                     Research Report, United Kingdom, ...
Research Metrics: Latest View• China    –   Plateau in growth in physical sciences and engineering but continued growth in...
GROWTH OF PHYSICAL SCIENCES HAS BEENSIGNIFICANT IN ASIA-PACIFIC (e.g. Materials)    30,000      • Materials science captur...
The Middle East is Typical of New Regional Growth              Turkey’s research growth                                   ...
What About The Publishers?Development     DescriptionIET and INASP   Agreement to provide certain developing and emerging ...
What About The Publishers?Development        DescriptionThomson Reuters    Web of Knowledge selected by Conseo Nacional de...
What About The Publishers?Development       DescriptionGale              Introduces Gale World Scholar: Latin America and ...
Publishers: Emerging Global Competitors?• For the most part, publishers have developed a global presence and  partnered wi...
China: Notable STM Data Sources• CNKI: Chinese National Resource Integrated Database• Wanfang: As an affiliate of Chinese ...
CNKI       47
Wanfang          48
India STM Publishing• Leading Publishers in India               • Indian Citation Index: developed by                     ...
Indian Citation Index                        50
Brazil: STM Publishing MarketMarket Dynamic       CommentaryMajority of STM      STM Segment earned $306M om 2009.content ...
Global Issue: Professional User Challenges                                                           • Professional users ...
Conclusion• Global competitiveness is accelerating in many ways.• Established economies continue to lead in-depth innovati...
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Global competition landscape reviewv victor camlek [2.28.2012]

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A presentation delivered at NFAIS in 2012 focused on illustrating the sources and metrics that result in global country competitive rankings. The aim was to focus on the most recent results availabe at the time of the presentation. The second half of the presentaion focused on the global STM publishing market.

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Global competition landscape reviewv victor camlek [2.28.2012]

  1. 1. Global Competition Victor Camlek VP Market Intelligence Thomson Reuters Feb. 28, 2012
  2. 2. Measuring Global Competition• Global competitiveness is difficult to state as a simple metric• GC is viewed in a number of ways based on authoritative sources• Various reports rank regions and nations of the world based upon: – Economic Performance – Global Innovation – Research & Development – Patent Filings – Education Trends – Scholarly Metrics• Reporting organizations utilize a detailed series of parameters and sub-parameters to achieve an overall scaled ranking• A review of selected rankings indicates no consistent “winner”• Leadership within the various rankings depends on the data to be assessed and the various analytic frameworks utilized 2
  3. 3. Economic Leadership• GDP offers a standard measurement of economic performance• Three leading sources provide GDP PPP forecasts – International Monetary Fund Database – World Bank – US CIA World Fact Book• GDP based on purchasing power parity (PPP) is a good metric. It adjusts exchange rates so that an identical good in different countries has the same price when expressed in the same currency• In terms of GDP, the US continues to lead the world• China has moved into a number two position. Analysts have forecast China will eventually assume global leadership.• GDP measures global output, but it is not intended to gauge material well-being, rather it serves as a measure of a nations productivity 3
  4. 4. Top 10 Global Economies Based on PPP • Chart displays growth in China’s GDP heading toward global leadership • GDP is a valid economic measurement but it does not measure the distribution wealth $40T $42T $42T $45T $47T $50T $53T $56T $60T $64T 100% Brazil Brazil Brazil France France France France France France France France France Brazil United Kingdom United Brazil Brazil Brazil Brazil Brazil Brazil Kingdom United Kingdom United Rus. Fed. Rus. Fed. Rus. Fed. Rus. Fed. Rus. Fed. Rus. Fed. 80 Kingdom Germany Germany Germany Germany Germany Germany Germany Japan Japan Japan Japan India India India India Japan Japan India India India India 60 Japan Japan Japan Japan India India China China China China China China United China China China 40 StatesNumber 1 20 United United United United United United United United United States States States States China States States States StatesPosition States 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source IMF: International Monitory Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, September 2011 4
  5. 5. The Global Innovation Index (GII) • Source: Insead, 2011 • Detailed global analysis • Ranks 125 countries based on a complex series of pillars and sub-Pillars • Knowledge Partners: Insead, Alcatel-Lucent, Booz and Company, Confederation of Indian Industry, WIPO 5
  6. 6. The Global Innovation Index• Computed as an average of the scores across inputs pillars (describing the enabling environment for innovation) and output pillars (measuring actual achievements in innovation)• Five pillars constitute the Innovation Input Sub-Index: Institutions, Human capital and research, Infrastructure, Market sophistication and Business sophistication‘• The Innovation Output Sub-Index is composed of two pillars: Scientific outputs and Creative outputs• The Innovation Efficiency Index, calculated as the ratio of the two Sub-Indices, examines how economies leverage their enabling environments to stimulate innovation results. 6
  7. 7. GII Number One Ranking: Switzerland• Switzerland achieved first place in the overall 2011 GII rankings (up from position 4th last year) on the basis of its strong position in both the Input and Output Sub-Indices (3rd and 2nd). Although the country does not top any individual pillar, it places within the top 5 in three Input pillars (Institutions at 5th, Market sophistication at 5th, and Business sophistication at 4th) and both Output pillars (Scientific outputs at 2nd and Creative outputs at 3rd). Its many strengths include its top 10 positions on 30 indicators several sub-pillars.• The top 10 economies in the Innovation Efficiency Index are Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria, China, Pakistan, Moldova, Sweden, Brazil, Argentina, India, and Bangladesh. Three BRIC economies (Brazil, India, and China) are in this select list, with the fourth, the Russian Federation, coming in at 52nd place. By region, the best performers are Côte d’Ivoire (1st), China (3rd), Pakistan (4th), Moldova (5th), Brazil (7th), Jordan (16th), and the US (26th). By income group, in descending order of income , the leaders are Sweden, Brazil, Côte d’Ivoire, and Bangladesh. 7
  8. 8. GII: Innovation LeadersCountry Scale (0- Income 2011 2010 2009 100)Switzerland 63.82 HI 1 4 7Sweden 62.12 HI 2 2 3Singapore 59.64 HI 3 7 5Hong Kong 58.80 HI 4 3 12(SAR) ChinaFinland 57.50 HI 5 6 13Denmark 56.96 HI 6 5 8USA 56.97 HI 7 11 1Canada 56.33 HI 8 12 11Netherlands 56.31 HI 9 8 10UK 55.96 HI 10 14 4 Source: Data from 2011 GII 8
  9. 9. GII: Additional Countries of InterestCountry Scale (0- Income 2011 2010 2009 100)Japan 50.32 HI 20 13 9China 46.43 LM 29 43 37Brazil 37.35 UM 47 68 50Russian 35.85 UM 56 64 68FederationIndia 34.52 LM 62 56 41 Source: Data from 2011 GII 9
  10. 10. GII: Rankings Within The Pillars ShowVariations in Performance and LeadershipScientific Output Scale R&D ScaleSweden 62.1 Israel 93.7Switzerland 62.0 Iceland 73.5Finland 58.5 Finland 73.5Israel 57.7 Sweden 73.2USA 57.4 USA 70.2Netherlands 53.8 Qatar 68.1Korea Republic 53.7 Japan 65.1Iceland 53.2 Denmark 63.6China 52.7 Switzerland 63.5UK 52.3 Singapore 60.2 Source: Data from 2011 GII 10
  11. 11. World Economic Forum • Source: The Global Competitiveness Report 2011-2012. World Economic Forum, Geneva Switzerland, September 2011 • Detailed analysis based on 12 Pillars (Institutions; Infrastructure; Macroeconomic environment; Health and Primary Education; Higher Education and Training; Goods Market Efficiency; Labor Market Efficiency; Financial Market Development; Technological Readiness; Market Size; Business Sophistication; Innovation 11
  12. 12. Global Competitiveness ReportCountry Score 2011-2012 2010-2011Switzerland 5.74 1 1Singapore 5.63 2 3Sweden 5.61 3 2Finland 5,47 4 7USA 5.43 5 4Germany 5.41 6 5Netherlands 5.41 7 8Denmark 5.41 8 9Japan 5.40 9 6UK 5.39 10 12BRIC Rankings: China 26; Brazil 53; India 56; Russian Federation 66 Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2011-12, c2011 12
  13. 13. Global Competitiveness Report Summary• Switzerland tops the overall rankings• Singapore overtakes Sweden for second position. Northern and Western European countries dominate the top 10 with Sweden (3rd), Finland (4th), Germany (6th), the Netherlands (7th), Denmark (8th) and the United Kingdom (10th). Japan remains the second-ranked Asian economy at 9th place, despite falling three places since last year.• The United States continues its decline for the third year in a row, falling one more place to fifth position; Macroeconomic vulnerabilities continue to build, some aspects of the United States’ institutional environment continue to raise concern among business leaders - low public trust in politicians and concerns about government inefficiency. More positive note, banks and financial institutions are rebounding for the first time since the financial crisis. 13
  14. 14. Global Competitiveness Report Summary• Germany maintains a strong position within the Eurozone, although it goes down one position to sixth place, while the Netherlands (7th) improves by one position in the rankings, France drops three places to 18th, and Greece continues its downward trend to 90th. Competitiveness-enhancing reforms will play a key role in revitalizing growth in the region and tackling its key challenges, fiscal consolidation and persistent unemployment• The results show that while competitiveness in advanced economies has stagnated over the past seven years, in many emerging markets it has improved, placing their growth on a more stable footing and mirroring the shift in economic activity from advanced to emerging economies. 14
  15. 15. Global Competitiveness Report Summary• The People’s Republic of China (26th) continues to lead the way among large developing economies, improving by one more place and solidifying its position among the top 30. Among the four other BRICS economies, South Africa (50th) and Brazil (53rd) move upwards while India (56th) and Russia (66th) experience small declines. Several Asian economies perform strongly, with Japan (9th) and Hong Kong SAR (11th) also in the top 20. 15
  16. 16. Measuring Research and Development • Source: 2012 Global R&D Funding Forecast December 2011, Battelle and R&D Magazine • Reports results of an annual survey of researchers 16
  17. 17. Headlines• US Industry R&D Increases 3.8% to $280 billion• Growing worldwide emphasis on basic research• Global R&D Spending to increase 5.2% to $1.4 trillion• Increasing importance of R&D ROI and collaboration• Numerous tables and text summarize R&D trends by geography and Industry 17
  18. 18. Trends in R&D• Global R&D spending is expected to grow by about 5.2% Share of Total Global R&D Spending to more than $1.4 trillion in 2012 2010 2011 2012• Slightly less than the 6.5% Americas 37.8% 36.9% 36.0% growth seen in 2011• Most of the global funding growth US 32.8% 32.1% 31.1% is being driven by Asian Asia 34.3% 35.5% 36.7% economies, which are expected to increase nearly 9% in 2012 Japan 11.8% 11.4% 11.2%• European R&D will grow by China 12.0% 13.1% 14.2% about 3.5% India 2.6% 2.8% 2.9%• North American R&D will grow by Europe 24.8% 24.5% 24.1% 2.8%. U.S. R&D is forecast to grow 2.1% in 2012 to $436 billion Rest of 3.0% 3.1% 3.2% the World Source: Battelle, R&D Magazine 18
  19. 19. Global R&D Forecast 19
  20. 20. R&D Forecast Trends• Emerging economies are increasing their global technological presence• Economic issues in established economies limit their ability to support R&D• Established economies are losing their unique “tech-opolies”• Sustainability is becoming a competitive advantage• Energy has created new techology opportunities and hazards• Rapid technology innovation is creating a more knowledge-intensive world• Product and technology sourcing has created new techno-politico issues Source: 2012 Global R&D Funding Forecast, Battelle and R&D Mag 20
  21. 21. Measuring Trends In Education 21
  22. 22. Number of College Degrees Worldwide National Bureau of Economic Research % Population Aged 15 and Older: Completed Tertiary Degree Year USA India China Brazil 1950 6.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 1955 7.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 1960 8.5 0.3 0.4 0.8 1965 9 0.5 0.4 1 1970 11.4 0.6 0.4 1.2 1975 13.3 0.9 0.4 2.3 1980 16.7 1.2 0.5 2.8 1985 18.6 1.7 0.8 2.8 1990 20.9 2.1 1 3.1 1995 22 2.2 1.8 3.4 2000 26.4 2.4 2.6 3.8 2005 16.2 2.7 3.6 3.8 2010 15.8 3.1 5.2 4.4 • Trending trajectories can be assumed based on metrics tracking percent of attainment across wide population groups (Barro-Lee data). ©2010 Thomson Reuters. • A trajectory is illustrated that supports the argument that attainment of undergraduate and graduate degrees is increasing in emerging economies (Brazil, India, China) while US attainment appears to be less than the peak yearSource: A New Data Set of Educational Attainment in the World, of 2000, although based on full population is still1950–2010, Robert J. Barro, Jong-Wha Lee a substantial number of people. 22http://www.nber.org/papers/w15902
  23. 23. University Enrollment • Indias government speaks of increasing the proportion of young people going to university from 12% at present to 30% by 2025 - approaching the levels of many Western countries • The amount of money in India’s central budget for higher education in the current five year plan (2010-2015) is nine times the amount of the previous five years • China has twice as many university graduates as the United States, which used to be the world leader, according to statistics published by UNESCO.©2010 Thomson Reuters. • In 2005, more students graduated from universities in the 19 WEI* countries than in **WEI (World Education Indicator) Countries = Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, Egypt, the 30 Member States of the OECD combine India, Indonesia, Jamaica, Jordan, Malaysia, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Russian Federation, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Tunisia, Uruguay and Zimbabwe Source: “India: The next university superpower?” Mar 2011; UNESCO 23
  24. 24. Number of First University/Doctoral Degrees • China now produces an equal or greater number of natural science and engineering (NS&E) doctoral degrees compared to the United States, rising four-fold from approx 5,000 in 1997 to over 20,000 in 2007©2010 Thomson Reuters. • Asia Expanding Researchers and High-Tech Education In terms of total researchers, the U.S. and the E.U. experienced moderate annual growth of about 3% between 1995 and 2006, while growth in the Asian region outside Japan ranged from 7-11%. China averaged nearly 9% growth annually in researchers, far outstripping any other country. Over this period the number of China’s researchers nearly tripled, from just over half a million to more than 1.4 million, boosting its global share from 13% to 25%. The U.S. also has around 1.4 million researchers, which places China at a level playing field in overall numbers (although there are questions about the quality of Chinese researchers) Source: National Science Board, “Science and 24 Engineering Indicators 2010”
  25. 25. CGS International Graduate AdmissionsSurvey – International Applications byDiscipline 25
  26. 26. Patent Filings 26
  27. 27. Global Patent Data •Worldwide filings rebounded in 2010 •China and the US accounted for the majority of worldwide growth (4/5ths) China IP growth more than doubled GDP growth •Patent growth in Europe represented by France, Germany and the UK plus applications from the EPO far exceeded GDP growth rate •Japan growth rate more than doubled GDP •Republic of Korea only reported office where GDP growth exceeded patent growth Source: WIPO 2011 World Intellectual Property Indicators 27 http://www.wipo.int/export/sites/www/freepublications/en/intproperty/941/wipo_pub_941_2011.pdf
  28. 28. Research Metrics 28
  29. 29. ESI Listings: By PapersRank Country Papers Citations Cites per paper1 USA 3,049,662 48,862,100 16.022 Peoples R China 836,255 5,191,358 6.213 Germany 784,316 10,518,133 13.414 Japan 771,548 8,084,145 10.485 England 697.763 10,508,202 15.066 France 557,322 7,007,693 12.577 Canada 451,588 6,019,195 13,338 Italy 429,301 5,151,675 12,009 Spain 339,154 3,588,655 10.5810 Australia 304,160 3,681,595 12.10 Source : Thomson Reuters http://sciencewatch.com/dr/cou/2011/11decALL 29
  30. 30. Sorted by CitationsRank Country Papers Citations Cites per paper1 USA 3,049,662 48,862,100 16.022 Germany 784,316 10,518,133 13.413 England 697.763 10,508,202 15.064 Japan 771,548 8,084,145 10.485 France 557,322 7,007,693 12.576 Canada 451,588 6,019,195 13,337 Peoples R 836,255 5,191,358 6.21 China8 Italy 429,301 5,151,675 12,009 Australia 304,160 3,681,595 12.110 Spain 339,154 3,588,655 10.58 Source : Thomson Reuters http://sciencewatch.com/dr/cou/2011/11decALL 30
  31. 31. Research Metrics • Source: Thomson Reuters (2010) Global Research Report, United States, November 2010 • “The US is no longer the Colossus of Science, dominating the research landscape in its production of scientific papers, that it was 30 years ago. It now shares this realm, on an increasingly equal basis, with the EU27 and Asia-Pacific. In terms of relative citation impact — an indicator of utility, influence, significance and similar concepts — the US still holds a commanding but eroding peak position. Europe is beginning to match US performance in citation impact, and analysts are likely to be tempted to predict that, in a decade or two, Asian nations will do so as well” 31
  32. 32. Research Metrics • Source: Thomson Reuters (2009) Global Research Report, China November 2009 • “Beginning around the mid-1990s, China’s output of scientific reports expanded dramatically, commencing a steep upward trajectory that has only increased in recent years.” Charts covering the years 1999 to 2008, capture “the increase in the annual number of Thomson Reuters-indexed papers featuring at least one author address in China. From just over 20,000 papers in 1998, China’s output increased to upwards of 112,000 papers by 2008 —with the nation more than doubling its output since 2004 alone. By the measure of annual output, China surpassed Japan, the UK and Germany in 2006 and now stands second only to the USA.” 32
  33. 33. China: Dramatic Growth 100 • The numbers of papers from large regions make it tricky to appreciate change. • The data here are indexed back to the starting totals in 1981. • The value for each region is set at 1.0 in 1981. Later years are compared back to that point. • Each country is then tracked in terms of growth as a ratio. • The USA grows more slowly than world average but the EU-27 does better China 75 • China accelerates past these, growing its published research output to more than 75 times the total in 1981 (135,000 articles cf 1,750). • In some technology fields it already exceeds US output • In Chemistry it has grown 150-fold and now produces 27,000 papers EU-27 per year compared to 23,000 for the US. 50 • Initial signs of reaching a plateau – but growth in physical sciences is being mirrored by growth in biomedical and social sciences • Still, plenty of room for further expansion of the research portfolio World 25 USAmAodphun891eavcsrtfl 0 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 Data and analysis: Evidence Thomson Reuters 33 33 Source: Thomson Reuters
  34. 34. IMPACT PROFILE CURVES ENABLE A RICH COMPARISON 40% USA ~ 2,900,000 papers Un-cited Papers UK ~ 700,000 papers China ~ 500,000 papers 30% 20% 10% NormalizedopunPeagcrtfli against relevant Most cited papers world average 0% Uncited > 0 < 0.125 ≥ 0.125 < 0.25 ≥ 0.25 < 0.5 ≥ 0.5 < 1 ≥1< 2 ≥2< 4 ≥4< 8 ≥8 Citation impact - 1999-2008 34 Source: Thomson Reuters
  35. 35. Research Metrics • Source: Thomson Reuters . Global Research Report, Brazil, June 2009 • “Brazil is an increasingly important and competitive research economy. Its research workforce capacity and R&D investment are expanding rapidly, offering many new possibilities in a diversifying research portfolio. It has received much less policy attention than China, however, and the research base in Latin America in general is unfamiliar to many in Europe and Asia. The report shows that Brazil’s output has doubled in ten years to 2007, part of a long-term trend of growth that far exceeds established G7 economies. Relative to the rest of the world, Brazil has exceptional capacity in biology- based disciplines and research related to natural resources.” 35
  36. 36. Research Metrics • Source: Thomson Reuters. Global Research Report, India, October 2009 • “In the modern era, science and technology have been central to India’s development efforts since the nation achieved independence in 1947...Despite these achievements, recent years have seen a growing realization among scholars, policymakers, and other observers that India lags behind other key countries and some of its BRIC partners in research investment and output... A nagging problem, however —perhaps paradoxically for the second-most populous nation on earth —is a current lack of human resources: the availability of qualified researchers has not kept pace with the increased funding ” 36
  37. 37. Research Metrics • Source: Thomson Reuters. Global Research Report, Japan, June 2010 • “Japan has a well-established research enterprise, world-class universities and government laboratories, and has produced a number of Nobel Prize winners. Yet its relative impact, across all fields taken together, remains below the world average. While its neighboring nations’ citation impact is on the rise, Japan’s numbers have lagged ...In contrast to the scientific output of two surging Asian economies previously examined in these Global Research Reports— India and China—Japan’s yield of research publications has been comparatively flat over the last decade.” 37
  38. 38. Research Metrics • Source: Thomson Reuters. Global Research Report, United Kingdom, October 2011. • “The UK spends 4% of the world’s Gross Expenditure on R&D on 6% of the world’s researchers who are authors on 8% of the world’s research articles and reviews. These papers attract 11% of the world’s citations and so create 14% of the world’s highly cited output. Those exceptional articles include 17% of the world’s research papers with more than 500 citations and 20% of those with more than 1000 citations. Its average research impact now surpasses that of the USA. Despite this outstanding performance – in terms of research efficiency, effectiveness and excellence – the level of private-sector research investment in the UK is surprisingly low and has fallen relative to comparators. The innovative capacity and potential of the UK is therefore not matched by its engagement with economic competitiveness, but this is 38 not the fault of the research base.
  39. 39. Research Metrics: Latest View• China – Plateau in growth in physical sciences and engineering but continued growth in biomedical sciences. .• Brazil – Growing in a different way to China because of its emphasis as a ‘natural knowledge’ economy, which may give it great sustainability.• Outside the BRIC(Korea) group, – Singapore is small but operates in a very efficient manner. – Iran has a very dynamic profile that is not limited to suspect technologies. – Attention can also be drawn to Mexico, Egypt, Turkey and Poland as countries that have significant potential likely to be realised in the next ten years. – “This changes the geography quite a bit, and then you start to look at the changing collaboration which is becoming less G7 orientated and more regional. It may be that regionalisation that will affect the trans-Atlantic hegemony as much as any single growth country. The Asia-Pacific network could be very powerful; a Latin America network around a Brazil-Mexico axis should also emerge. This may then boost the status of regional journals, and that could affect our strategy, although the predominance of English as the common research language may constrain that).”Source: Thomson Reuters disaggregation of data allow this disaggregation to be analysed 39 Source: Thomson Reuters
  40. 40. GROWTH OF PHYSICAL SCIENCES HAS BEENSIGNIFICANT IN ASIA-PACIFIC (e.g. Materials) 30,000 • Materials science captures a diversity of critical new technologies. ASIA PACIFIC • This is a domain where growth of the newly emergent research economies is very marked. • The US led in the 1980s but stopped growing EU-15 • China bypassed the US in 2004 and now produces 13K papers per year. US produces less than 8K • Other AP countries have also invested in this area CHINA 20,000 (Singapore, S. Korea, Taiwan). • The Middle East is now beginning to take off USA JAPAN 10,000 MIDDLE EASTWMobdnpeaSyxcsrtfli LATIN AMERICA 0 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 Data and analysis: Evidence Thomson Reuters 40 40 40 Source: Thomson Reuters 40
  41. 41. The Middle East is Typical of New Regional Growth Turkey’s research growth Turkey 20,000 in this decade is faster than China’s Iran 15,000 Egypt 10,000 Saudi Arabia 5,000WAobpuneaScstfil Jordan 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 41 Source: Thomson Reuters
  42. 42. What About The Publishers?Development DescriptionIET and INASP Agreement to provide certain developing and emerging countries within Africa, Asia and Latin America access to IET Research and Letters Journals. The result is that users in selected regions are able to gain access to IET resources and other scientific information free of charge or at significantly reduced cost.ProQuest Will distribute SIAM (Society for Industry and Applied Mathematics to libraries worldwide.Knovel Expands partner ecosystem with six new global publishing partners.NPG Announces open access for Japanese TitlesSwets Libraries R-evolution project now contains contributions from over 70 of Asia’s distinguished libraries and institutions; Swets announced sales and marketing partnership with Wisers, a Hong Kong-based Ghina news information provider.Springer Partners with Edanz Group, editing service for international authors who’s first language is not English. 42
  43. 43. What About The Publishers?Development DescriptionThomson Reuters Web of Knowledge selected by Conseo Nacional de Cliencia Y Technologia (CONACYT), a national council promoting science and technologies polices in Mexico, to enhance the research and analytic capabilities of researchers across Mexico.ProQuest Serials Selected by Peking University in China to improve theSolution Summon dscoverability and usability of a vast collection of digital resources and materials. Peking University claims to serve more than 45,000 students.Wolters Kluwer Acquired India-based OA STM publisher MedKnow.UK UK research faces challenge from emerging according to The Assn. of the British Pharmaceutical Industry (ABPI). ABP warned that the UK must continue to attract investment for research, or risk being surpassed by emerging markets.McGraw-Hill McGraw-Hill and Wipro will develop mobile learning platform for emerging markets.Elsevier Bilingual publications to enhance medical education in the Middle East; Elsevier has collaborated with Tsinghua University Department of Computer Science and Technology in Beijing to introduce four new research productivity enhancing applications 43 for SciVerse Applications.
  44. 44. What About The Publishers?Development DescriptionGale Introduces Gale World Scholar: Latin America and the CaribbeanSpringer In deal with Dai Nippon Printing for POD solutions in JapanThomson Reuters InCites selected by the South Africa National Research Foundation to analyze institutional productivity.Springer Springer and Asia Briefing announced ePublishing agreement to enhance business and management book programs. The agreement is for technical and business guides. Springer also announced that the University of Hong Kong Libraries has signed a renewal agreement that allows researchers with affiliation to the HKU to publish their research results in Springer journals using Springer Open Choice.NPG NPG expanded an open access publishing in China. Under the initiative, NPG will publish two open access journals 0 International Journal of Oral Science and Light Science & Applications – with Chinese universities from 2012. 44
  45. 45. Publishers: Emerging Global Competitors?• For the most part, publishers have developed a global presence and partnered with various regional companies rather than face direct competition• Scholars continue to benefit from publishing in global journals – The goal to demonstrate quality rather than quantity tends to support the traditional publishers – However, there are a combination of emerging and legacy publishers visible in China, India and Brazil.• A good portion of the STM market in emerging economies focuses on books or indices. 45
  46. 46. China: Notable STM Data Sources• CNKI: Chinese National Resource Integrated Database• Wanfang: As an affiliate of Chinese Ministry of Science & Technology, Wanfang Data has been the leading information provider in China since 1950s. With a wide range of database resources and value-added services, Wanfang Data has become a gateway to understand Chinese culture, medicine, business, science, etc.• Notable STM Publishers: – Higher Education Press – China Science Publishing Group Co Ltd (Science Press) – People’s Medical Publishing House – Chemical Industry Press – Chinese Medicine Net – Shanghai Scientific & Tec 46
  47. 47. CNKI 47
  48. 48. Wanfang 48
  49. 49. India STM Publishing• Leading Publishers in India • Indian Citation Index: developed by "The Knowledge Foundation“ with 1. CBS Publishers & Distributors Pvt support of M/s Divan Enterprise. Mr. Ltd Prakash Chand thought to bring out 2. Medknow Publications (WK) Indian Citation Index (ICI) database covering ~1000 top Indian scholarly 3. McGraw-Hill Professional India journals encompassing all disciplines of 4. Nature India knowledge. The ICI database enables access and empowers users to search, 5. Reed Elsevier track, measure and collaborate in the 6. Sage Publications sciences, social sciences, arts, and humanities to turns raw data/information 7. Springer India into the powerful knowledge one needs. 8. The Indian Academy of Sciences ICI like other indexes enables user to (IAS) move back in time to previously published papers, but uniquely one can 9. Thieme Medical Publishers Inc also look forward in time to determine Wiley India who has subsequently cited an earlier piece of research.” 49
  50. 50. Indian Citation Index 50
  51. 51. Brazil: STM Publishing MarketMarket Dynamic CommentaryMajority of STM STM Segment earned $306M om 2009.content focuses onbooksMajor Players: • Grupo Editorial Nacional Participacoes (GEN). GEN is the market leader with $62M (2009). It publishes technical books. • Grupo A Editoras: Created by the Artmed publishing house in 2010 is an umbrella for several imprings: McGraw-Hill Interamericana de Brasil, Artmed Editoria, Bookman, Tekne, Artes Medicas and Penso.Journal Coverage • SciELO (Scientific Electronic Library Online) is open access Latin American bibliographic database with 638 scientific journals in full-text. 251 titles are from Brazil • Brazil has no established commercial STM journal publishing industry, though several international publishers have a substantial presence in Brazil.” These include Elsevier, Springer and Brazilian Physical Society. Source: Outsell, Brazillian STM Publishing on the Wax, June 5, 2011 51
  52. 52. Global Issue: Professional User Challenges • Professional users face more “obstacles” in the most recent survey from Outsell than they did in 2008 when it comes to getting information • The availability of time, TMI, lack of staff support and budget rank at the top of the list • Also notable: issue of quality Source: End-User Update: 2008 Survey, Joanne Lustig, Outsell, April 27, 2011 52
  53. 53. Conclusion• Global competitiveness is accelerating in many ways.• Established economies continue to lead in-depth innovative indices based on complex parameters. However, RDEs are rising through the rankings at an incremental pace.• There is continuing evidence of growth in emerging economies in terms of economic potential, R&D expenditures, academic trends and bibliometric trends.• STM remains as a stable market, publishers are partnering and locating business units abroad. New competition is not quickly emerging in STM.• Based on scholarly metrics additional RDE’s are following the high growth patterns established by China.• Major question moving forward on all measures: Sustainability? 53

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