Ross Naylor +48 (22) 389 65 70 (w) +48 512 275 706 (m) ul. Królewska 27 lok 411 Warszawa 00-060 Poland The Next Bric Thing? In theory the "next 11" sounds like a sure thing. In the long term it probably will be. In the short term, recent events in Egypt highlight how bumpy the road will A Question for You be. Do you have a will/testament thatEver since Goldman Sachs Jim ONeill coined the term reflects your currentBRIC (Brazil, Russia, India & China) back in 2001 the wishes?investment industry has been falling over itself to comeup with the next big thing. Food for ThoughtStep forward Jim ONeill. Thats right, he appears to havedone it again. His newest grouping is called the "Next These are some of the things11". Not quite as catchy as BRIC, but it still seems to be that have caught my attention recently. I hope that you findtaking hold. them interesting too.He describes this grouping as a "diverse group of Jeremy Granthams latestcountries" which are bound together by their "large quarterly letter. This guy is onepopulations, superior growth potential and strong of the smartest that I have comedomestic consumption story". across. The letter is a bit long, but well worth reading.
The members are Bangl adesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran,Korea, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Turkey and A great interview with JimVietnam. Rogers on commodities and inflation. Shy and retiring as ever.The long term case is certainly compelling. Thesemarkets start from a lower base, they have favourable The 2 talking bears are back.demographics and have huge popul ations waiting to This time they explain bankingconsume. bailouts.In fact, a recent forecast from BP predicts that 93% of the Finally, an interesting analysis ongrowth in energy use over the next 20 years will come the situation in Egypt.from countries that are not currently OECD members (itsok, its a growth report not a safety report so we can take Disclaimerit seriously). The views expressed here are myBut while the argument is strong, particularly for countries own. They are not necessarilylike Vietnam and Turkey, the risks are high. shared by AES International. They are subject to change at any timeThis been clearly demonstrated in recent weeks. Firstly based on market and otherworries over Nigerias fiscal prudence and f alling foreign conditions.exchange reserves resulted in lower than expected This is not an offer or solicitationdemand for its first sovereign bond issue. Then came the for the purchase or sale of anyupheaval in Egypt, which caused the benchmark EGX30 security and should not beindex to fall 11% in one day last week. construed as such. References to specific securities are forConclusion - Long term, allocating to these markets illustrative or informationalmakes sense for many investors, especially if you have purposes only and are nottime on your side. However, only do so with your "risk intended to be, and should not becapital" and ideally drip-feed your money in over a period interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities.of time. My day job is as a qualified financial planner. This entails me giving my clients advice on maximizing the returns on theirAnd finally... investments within their specified risk parameters. This may or mayThanks for reading. Your time is appreciated. not involve me recommending some of the securities listed above.As always, if you have any comments or feedback, feelfree to drop me a line.Ross.