Mitchell beijing 24th_august2011


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  • The biggest increase in emissions has taken place in developing countries (with close to 6 billion people) while developed countries (with less than 1 billion people), on average, show rather steady emissions for the last decade. About one quarter of the recent growth in emissions in developing countries resulted from the increase in international trade of goods and services produced in developing countries but consumed in developed countries. The largest regional shift in 2008 was India overtaking Russia as the third largest CO2 emitter. China and the US remain in first and second position. From a historical perspective, developing countries with 80% of the world ’ s population still account for about 20% of the cumulative emissions since 1751; the poorest countries in the world, with 800 million people, have contributed less than 1% of these cumulative emissions. Uncertainty of emissions from CO2 fossil fuel is large in some countries and about ±0.5 PgC globally.
  • Mitchell beijing 24th_august2011

    1. 1. 欢迎大家 - w elcome 爱丁堡气候变化中心 安德鲁 • 米切尔 商务经理 电子邮件 : 网址 : Andrew Mitchell – Beijing – 24 th August, 2011.
    2. 2. The ECCC is a partnership of the University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh Napier University and Heriot Watt University. As an Innovation Centre, the ECCC has a bold vision of bringing together entrepreneurs, investors, industry leaders, policy makers and academics to help deliver a “low carbon economy”. As part of the ECCC’s ambitious plans to become a hub for information and knowledge exchange, a ¥105 million physical space will house innovative activities. The Centre will comprise twin elements of a virtual information hub and a physical infrastructure located at Edinburgh’s historic High School Yards near the Scottish Parliament.
    3. 3. The Edinburgh Centre on Climate Change <ul><li>University of Edinburgh: particular expertise in: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Renewable Energy Systems (Marine and Wind) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Novel Fuels and Waste Usage </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Solar Cells and Thermo-Electric Power </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Carbon Utilisation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Economic Modelling and Accounting of Energy and Carbon </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sustainability & Low Carbon Infrastructure </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Green Electronics and IT </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Environmental Mitigation Technologies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Climate Change, Energy, Environment and Carbon </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Hydrogen Storage and Nuclear Power </li></ul></ul>
    4. 4. The role of ICT in Carbon Management & Finance 爱丁堡气候变化中心 安德鲁 • 米切尔 商务经理 电子邮件 : 网址 : Andrew Mitchell – Beijing – 24 th August, 2011.
    5. 5. Agenda <ul><li>Background </li></ul><ul><li>Context: the twin challenges of a Low Carbon Economy </li></ul><ul><li>The role of ICT in Carbon Management & Finance </li></ul>
    6. 6. Personal Background <ul><li>18 years experience in the ICT sector & 11 years experience in business-university collaboration and commercialisation. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Covell Matthews Architects Ltd (Aberdeen) – Computer Aided Design (1993) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Accenture (Aberdeen) – SAP programming and web development (1997) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>British Telecommunications PLC (London) – Internet & Web solutions (1999) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>BT Disruptive Lab at MIT Media Lab (USA) (2001) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cambridge-MIT Institute Ltd (Cambridge, UK) – software entrepreneurs (2003) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Innovation Centre Sunshine Coast (Australia) – software entrepreneurs (2006) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Edinburgh Informatics – (Scotland) – software entrepreneurs (2007) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>ECCC (Scotland) – special focus on ICT and Climate Change (2011) </li></ul></ul>
    7. 7. <ul><ul><ul><li> </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Edinburgh: Largest Computer Science department in Europe and Best Computer Science department in the UK by a factor of two (based on official Research Assessment Exercise) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Scottish Informatics and Computer Science Alliance </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Low Carbon related research: </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Low Power Consumption Chip Design </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Microbial Fuel Cells </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Energy Neutral Speckled Computing </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Centre for Earth System Dynamics and Climate Change Modelling </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Zero Carbon Buildings (CAD, Visualisation, Management, Analysis) </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Hydrodynamic Modelling of Tidal Currents </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>And and and… </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>Informatics in Scotland:
    8. 8. Edinburgh Centre on Climate Change <ul><ul><li>The Edinburgh Centre aims to bridge the intimidating gap between good ideas and the practical actions required to support the transition to a low carbon economy. We undertake three types of activities: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Professional skills training; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Providing a forum for building partnerships to solve &quot;low carbon&quot; problems; and </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Coordinating and sharing information on workable solutions from around the world. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Located in the cultural, political and scientific capital of Scotland and the most significant financial centre after London. </li></ul></ul>
    9. 9. Context: Economic success has led to twin challenges <ul><li>Energy security </li></ul><ul><li>Environmental </li></ul><ul><li>sustainability </li></ul>
    10. 10. In the absence of a low carbon future… <ul><li>Projections (IEA/EIA) suggest: </li></ul><ul><li>World energy demand rising: 1.5%/yr </li></ul><ul><ul><li>12,000 mtoe (2007) to 16,800 mtoe by 2030 – 40% rise </li></ul></ul><ul><li>90% of growth in demand from non-OECD countries; Asian countries main drivers </li></ul><ul><li>Fossil fuel share remains at ~80% </li></ul><ul><li>Liquid fuels remain dominant fuel type </li></ul><ul><li>Demand for power generation rises 75% </li></ul><ul><ul><li>4,800GW required by 2030 [5x current US capacity] </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Power generation dominated by coal </li></ul></ul>
    11. 11. Le Qu é ré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; CDIAC 2009 … as emissions ’ growth from developing nations Annex B (Kyoto Protocol) Developed Nation Developing Nations Non-Annex B 1990 2000 2010 5 4 3 2 CO 2 emissions (PgC y -1 ) 55% 45%
    12. 12. The Role of ICT in Carbon Management & Finance <ul><li>Simply put CO 2 already is, but will increasingly be, measured: </li></ul>CO 2 = So the role of ICT in Financial Accounting and Management applies.
    13. 13. The Role of ICT in Carbon Management & Finance <ul><li>However the role of ICT goes way beyond: </li></ul><ul><li>“ Bits and Atoms” </li></ul><ul><li>“ The Internet of Things” </li></ul><ul><li>“ The Internet of Moving Things” </li></ul><ul><li>The next four slides I have borrowed with permission from IBM. </li></ul>
    14. 14. The Role of ICT in Carbon Management & Finance <ul><li>The ICT industry has a very significant role to play in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, especially in a rapidly developing country such as China. Future development in China should not follow the wrong path taken by developed countries. Many industries can make use of modern ICT technology to move into higher efficiency low carbon markets. If we are to better use ICT technology to move away from existing energy intensive work habits and lifestyles, we need government policy innovations, incentives for companies and the active participation of consumers. </li></ul><ul><li>Tang Min, Deputy Secretary-General, </li></ul><ul><li>China Development Research Foundation </li></ul>
    15. 15. ICT and Climate Change <ul><li>The ICT industry has a sizeable carbon footprint – on a par with the aviation industry at 2-3% of global carbon emissions (Gartner 2007). </li></ul><ul><li>BUT IT IS GROWING RAPIDLY! </li></ul><ul><li>“ At current growth rates data centers and telecommunication networks, the two key components of the cloud Facebook depends on, will consume about 1,963 billion kilowatts hours of electricity in 2020. That’s more than triple their current consumption and more than the current electricity consumption of France, Germany, Canada and Brazil combined.” </li></ul><ul><li>Greenpeace Blog, March 30, 2010 </li></ul>
    16. 16. Addicted to Data The World’s Technological Capacity to Store, Communicate, and Compute Information Martin Hilbert and Priscila López Science 1 April 2011: 60-65. DOI:10.1126/science.1200970 In 2007 humankind was able to store 2.9×10 20 optimally compressed bytes (290 exabytes) and communicate almost 2×10 21 bytes. &quot;If we were to take all that information and store it in books, we could cover the entire area of China in 13 layers of books” Dr Martin Hilbert University of Southern California bytes 290,000,000,000,000,000,000 kilobytes 290,000,000,000,000,000 megabytes 290,000,000,000,000 gigabytes 290,000,000,000 terabytes 290,000,000 petabytes 290,000 exabytes 290
    17. 17. © Greenpeace / Kate Davison Addicted to Products
    18. 18. Four roles of ICT in Carbon Management <ul><li>Reducing the Carbon Footprint of the ICT industry itself </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Zero carbon data centres </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Low power consumption chips </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Software design, deployment and management </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Consumer, corporate and supplier behaviour: product lifecycles </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Always on pervasive data networks? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>* Role one is all the ICT that accounts and manages money and all the related business processes. </li></ul>Role two*:
    19. 19. Four roles of ICT in Carbon Management <ul><li>Informatics : analysing and understanding climate change. </li></ul><ul><li>Informatics is the study of the structure, the behaviour, and the interactions of natural and engineered computational systems. </li></ul>“… when you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers, you know something about it; but when you cannot measure it, when you cannot express it in numbers, your knowledge is of a meagre and unsatisfactory kind…” Lord Kelvin (1824 – 1907) Role three:
    20. 20. SMART2020: Four roles of ICT in Carbon Management <ul><li>Enabling efficiency: changing the way we live and work </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Dematerialisation: (e-books, telepresence, e-billing etc) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>SMART motor systems </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>SMART logistics </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>SMART buildings </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>SMART grids </li></ul></ul></ul>Role four:
    21. 21. SMART2020: Global e-Sustainability Initiative <ul><li>Smart motor systems: 2% of global emissions in 2020 will come from motor systems (manufacturing) in China. 10% efficiency would deliver 200 million tonnes (Mt) CO2e savings. Applied globally, optimised motors and industrial automation would reduce 0.97 GtCO2e in 2020. </li></ul><ul><li>Smart logistics: Efficiencies in transport and storage, smart logistics could deliver significant fuel, electricity and heating savings (1.52 GtCO2e in 2020). </li></ul><ul><li>Smart buildings: Better building design, management and automation could save 15% of North America’s buildings emissions. </li></ul><ul><li>Globally, smart buildings technologies would enable 1.68 GtCO2e of emissions savings. </li></ul><ul><li>Smart grids: Reducing transmission and distribution losses in India’s power sector by 30% is possible through better monitoring and management of electricity grids, first with smart meters and then by integrating more advanced ICTs into the so-called “energy internet”. </li></ul>
    22. 22. BUT … the ICT industry has a legacy of failing to deliver. “ All dealings with Government that can be delivered electronically will be deliverable electronically by 2005.” Tony Blair March 1999 In 2011 there is still a mountain to climb:
    23. 23. And so the ICT industry challenge is: <ul><li>1. ICT > CO2 = £ / € / $ / ¥ </li></ul><ul><li>2. Reducing the Carbon Footprint of the ICT industry itself </li></ul><ul><li>3. Informatics: analysing and understanding climate change. </li></ul><ul><li>4. Enabling efficiency: changing the way we live and work </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Dematerialisation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Smart motor systems </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Smart logistics </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Smart buildings </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Smart grids </li></ul></ul><ul><li>But most importantly: a sense of urgency and commitment to deliver . </li></ul>