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Climate Change Law and Policy After Cancún


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Law and the Environment 2011, University College Cork, April 2011.

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Climate Change Law and Policy After Cancún

  1. 1. Climate ChangeLaw and PolicyAfter CancúnRónán Kennedy24 March 2011 Law School
  2. 2. Climate Change•  Human activity leads to emission of gases –  Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide•  Gases alter the climate system•  Global temperature is increasing•  Likely adverse effects on –  human health –  biodiversity –  ecological productivity 2
  3. 3. Regulatory Issues•  Emissions unavoidable by-product of economic activity•  Still large stocks of fossil fuels remaining•  Atmosphere is a ‘global commons’ 3
  4. 4. Likely Impact on Ireland: –  Changes in rainfall patterns –  Warmer summers and winters –  Changes in growing season –  River flooding may increase –  Sea level rises Law School
  5. 5. Likely Resulting Costs•  Obvious impact on population centres•  Damage to infrastructure•  Impacts on farming?•  Increased need for irrigation –  balanced by new market opportunities? 5
  6. 6. •  UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) –  Purpose: stabilize “greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level which would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” (Article 2) –  Opened for signature at UNCED in 1992, in force 1994•  Kyoto Protocol (1997) –  US and Australia refused to ratify –  Europe coaxed Russia into ratifying in 2004
  7. 7. •  Policies and measures to reduce emissions•  Aggregate emissions reduced –  by at least 5% below 1990 levels –  in the commitment period 2008 to 2012
  8. 8. Kyoto “Flexible Mechanisms” –  Emissions trading (cap-and-trade) •  No legal limit to amount purchased (Bonn) –  Joint implementation •  Projects shared between developed countries –  Clean Development Mechanism •  Projects in developing country but funded by developed country
  9. 9. •  MOP-1 in Montreal, November 2005 –  Focus on dialogue for the future•  MOP-2 in Nairobi, November 2006 –  Not very productive•  MOP-3 in Bali, December 2007 –  Agreed “roadmap” to December 2009 for post-2012 regime•  MOP-4 in Poznan, 2008 –  No significant breakthroughs•  MOP-5 in Copenhagen, 2009•  MOP-6 in Cancún, 2010
  10. 10. Preliminary work for Copenhagen Conference•  Two tracks (ad hoc working groups): –  Long-term Cooperative Action (AGW-LCA) –  Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP)•  Collectively – “The Bali Roadmap” Law School
  11. 11. The “Copenhagen Accord”, 2009•  Emission reductions by Annex I countries•  Mitigation actions by non-Annex I countries•  “Copenhagen Green Climate Fund”•  To be assessed by 2015 Law School
  12. 12. MOP-6, Cancún, Mexico (Nov-Dec 2010)•  Positive outcomes –  Approved “Accord” –  Established “Adaptation Framework”/“Committee” –  “Green Climate Fund” (with pledges)•  Shift from “top-down” to “bottom-up” approach?•  Procedural and substantive challenges: –  Unwieldy procedures –  North/South suspicions –  Ideological grandstanding –  Need for consensus Law School
  13. 13. US: Application of Clean Air Act•  Massachusetts v EPA•  National Fuel Efficiency Policy•  Tailoring Rule•  Regional voluntary cap-and-trade systems Law School
  14. 14. US: Legislative Proposals•  American Clean Energy and Security Bill (Waxman-Markey)•  Clean Energy Jobs and American Power Bill (Kerry-Boxer)•  No new legislation expected Law School
  15. 15. EU Response•  Negotiation of a ‘bubble’ for emissions•  Overall target: reduction of 8%•  Irish target: increase of 13%•  EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS)•  “20/20/20” target: –  by 2020, –  20% emissions reduction, –  20% use of renewables Law School
  16. 16. •  Directive 2003/87/EC•  Two periods: 2005-2007 & 2008-2012•  Cap-and-trade system•  Applies to some industrial activities (energy, ferrous metals, mineral industry, etc.)•  Allowances granted by governments, based on National Allocation Plan (NAP) –  2005-2007: at least 95% free –  2008-2012: at least 90% free
  17. 17. ETS Penalties•  30 April each year: –  2005-2007: €40/tonne –  2008-2012: €100/tonne•  Linking Directive (2004/101/EC) –  Connected to JI/CDM
  18. 18. EU: Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) Issues•  Over-allocation of allowances•  Carbon leakage?•  Lack of real impact?•  Security issues Law School
  19. 19. •  Directive 1999/94/EC on consumer information on car economy and CO2 emissions (under review)•  Decision 1753/00/EC on CO2 monitoring for new cars•  Regulation 443/2009/EC setting emission performance standards for new passenger cars•  Directive 2001/77/EC on renewable energy sources•  Directive 2009/28 on renewable energy•  Directive 2003/30/EC on biofuels (to be replaced by Directive 2009/28)
  20. 20. •  Directive 2008/101/EC to include aviation in the EU ETS•  Directive 2002/91/EC on the energy performance of buildings•  Directive 2003/96/EC on taxation of energy products•  Regulation 842/2006/EC on certain flourinated greenhouse gases (and related technical regulations)
  21. 21. Other European Legislation•  Directive 2009/31/EC on carbon capture and storage•  Changes to Fuel Quality Directive and Energy Performance of Buildings Directive•  Effort Sharing Decision (406/2009/EC) – Irish target: -20% reduction in emissions
  22. 22. •  2000: National Climate Change Strategy launched•  ‘Business as usual not an option’•  Key initiatives in NCCS: –  Carbon energy taxation –  Use of emissions trading –  Measures supportive of ending coal-firing at Moneypoint –  Fuel switching to low and zero carbon fuels –  Livestock reductions and lower fertiliser use –  Fuel efficiency, demand management and modal shift in transport –  Energy efficiency in construction –  Adjustment of the new house grant
  23. 23. •  Excise relief for biofuels•  Domestic emissions trading linked with EU ETS•  Carbon tax abandoned September 2004•  Moneypoint still open, retrofit approved•  Back to ‘business-as-usual’?
  24. 24. •  April 2007: National Climate Change Strategy•  Projected emissions: 80 MtCO2E•  Kyoto target: 63 MtCO2E•  Reduction of 17 MtCO2E required
  25. 25. •  Energy: ETS, renewable energy•  Transport: Transport 21, car technology improvements, support for biofuels•  Residential: Building Regulations amendments•  Industry: ETS, voluntary Large Industry Energy Network, support for bioheat and CHP•  Agriculture and Forestry: CAP reform, afforestation•  Waste: diversion of biodegradable waste, landfill gas capture•  Public Sector: CFL bulbs, energy savings by OPW, carbon offsets for air travel, biomass heating in schools
  26. 26. •  Flexible Mechanisms –  3.6 MtCO2E purchase –  Anticipated annual cost of €54 million•  Climate Change Commission•  Annual Implementation Status Report (replaced by carbon budgets)•  EPA to prepare emissions reports and projections•  New Climate Change Strategy to be prepared
  27. 27. •  Environmental Protection Agency Act 1992 (as amended by Protection of the Environment Act 1992)•  Sustainable Energy Act 2002
  28. 28. •  European Communities (Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading) Regulations 2004 (SI 437/2004)•  Kyoto Protocol Flexible Mechanisms Regulations 2006 (SI 244/2006)•  European Communities (Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading) (Amendment) Regulations 2005 (SI 706/2005)
  29. 29. •  Building Regulations (Amendment) Regulations 2005 (SI 873/2005)•  European Communities (Energy Performance of Buildings) Regulations 2006 (SI 666/2006)•  Building Regulations (Amendment) Regulations 2007 (SI 854/2007)
  30. 30. •  Planning and Development Regulations 2007 (SI 83/2007)•  Planning and Development Regulations 2008 (SI 235/2008)
  31. 31. •  Carbon Fund Act 2007•  Motor Vehicle (Duties and Licences) (No. 2) Act 2008•  Planning and Development (Amendment) Act 2009•  Energy (Biofuel Obligation and Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2010•  Private Members Bills
  32. 32. Ireland: Carbon Budget 2010•  Carbon levy: €15 per tonne of carbon dioxide•  Framework for Climate Change Bill Law School
  33. 33. Government: Climate Change Bill•  Target: average 3% annual reduction on 1990 to 2020; 80% by 2050•  National Climate Change Strategy: statutory basis•  Carbon Budget: also statutory basis•  Climate Change Committee: statutory, high level experts•  Change Change Adaptation: statutory, 8 year cycle•  Domestic Carbon Offsetting/Trading•  Monitoring, Reporting and Statutory Obligations Law School
  34. 34. Joint Committee: Climate Change Bill•  Target: 20% reduction on 2005 by 2020; 30% if successor to Kyoto Protocol•  Office of Climate Change and Renewable Energy: part of Department of An Taoiseach•  National Climate Change Strategy: annual, by Taoiseach•  Climate Change Commission: independent•  Climate Change Dividend Fund: revenue from auctions, taxes•  Offset schemes: including forest carbon offsets•  Risk assessment: every 5 years•  Climate change statements: from significant public authorities and bodies Law School
  35. 35. •  2001: 31%•  2002: 29%•  2003: 25%•  2004: 23.7%•  2005: 26.7%•  2006: 25.6%•  2007: 25%•  2008: 3.99%•  2009: 2.23%
  36. 36. Influences on the Future•  Better understanding of sustainability issues•  Economic recession•  Smaller-scale agreements between groups of states•  Increasing media scrutiny and hostile public comment Law School
  37. 37. Possible Future Responses•  Voluntary industry schemes•  Public procurement criteria•  Expansion of ETS•  Public awareness campaigns•  Product labelling•  Financial instruments: carbon taxes & subsidies•  Individual carbon credits (‘carbon rationing’) 37
  38. 38. The Future•  UNFCCC process in trouble?•  Bilateral and small-scale multilateral treaties?•  Climate Change Act 201x? Law School