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China economy, politics, technology - Arise Roby


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China economy, politics, technology - Arise Roby

  1. 1. 1. Historical Background 2. Power Transition Theory 3. Recent Chinese Growth 4. American-Chinese Relations: Sources of Conflict 5. Regional Stability in Asia 6. Will China Become a Democracy? 7. Student Questions ARISE TRAINING & RESEARCH CENTER
  2. 2. 1911 1949 1950 1966 1972 2001 1978 End of the Ch’ing Dynasty (1644-1911) Mao’s Communist Victory Intervention in the Korean War (November) Instability, Revolts, Invasions, and Civil War 1976 Cultural Revolution Decay of Chinese-Soviet Relations Death of Mao Nixon Plays the “China Card” 1969 Soviet-Chinese Border Clashes “Market Reforms” Begin Slowly ARISE TRAINING & RESEARCH CENTER
  3. 3. Will China Surpass the U.S.? Is China Dissatisfied? ARISE TRAINING & RESEARCH CENTER
  5. 5. Hong Kong Japan USA Taiwan Other Singapore ARISE TRAINING & RESEARCH CENTER
  6. 6. • Trade • Human Rights • Taiwan ARISE TRAINING & RESEARCH CENTER
  7. 7. • Growing U.S. Trade Deficit With China 1999: U.S. Exports to China: $13.12 1999: U.S. Imports From China: $87.78 • Will Chinese Membership in the WTO Lessen Conflict? a) Regime Will Encourage China to Cooperate b) WTO is Impartial Monitor c) Concessions are to a Third Party d) Keeps Conflict from Spreading ARISE TRAINING & RESEARCH CENTER
  8. 8. • Tiananmen Square (June 1989) & Response • Chinese Perspective: Question of Sovereignty • American Perspective: Moral Obligation -- Idealism -- President Carter: Shift in U.S. Policy -- New International Norm: Protecting Human Rights ARISE TRAINING & RESEARCH CENTER
  9. 9. • Legacy of Civil War & 1949 Communist Victory • Korean War Links U.S. to Defense of Taiwan • Series of “Taiwan Straits Crises” During the Cold War • U.S. Establishes Bi-Lateral Relations with PRC in 1979 • Recent Democratization of Taiwan • Military and Economic Costs of a Chinese Invasion • Can the U.S. Deter China in Any Way? ARISE TRAINING & RESEARCH CENTER
  11. 11. • Long History of Conflict • 1980’s: Chinese Cuts in Defense Spending • 1990’s: Defense Build Up Begins a) Reorder Defense Focus b) Impact of the Persian Gulf War c) Typical Patter for a Developing Country d) Buy Off the Military • Response to Buildup: Private Alarm & Public Appeasement • China’s Biggest Fear: A Re-Armed Japan ARISE TRAINING & RESEARCH CENTER
  12. 12. • Tremendous Social & Economic Change in China • Important Implications for the Distribution of Power • Navigating Will Be Difficult But Not Impossible ARISE TRAINING & RESEARCH CENTER