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ANECDOTES


Customers complaints from customers about traffic
    • Increasing
        (especially after High Street intersection closed)

      • One older customer gave up after attempting a trial run



Other Businesses
   • South Limestone businesses closing, letting employees go

      • Similar business: Sales “fell off a cliff” in August & September

      • Festival Market business owner / customer: “Business sucks”
Two Questions:


How many of our customers
come from South Lexington?

How has that changed since
 South Limestone closure?
IMPACTS




          40504
40513     40503
        40514
              40517


 40356
IMPACTS



30
  Southside



         Percent
of Lowell’s Customer Base
IMPACTS



30
  Southside



         Percent
of Lowell’s Customer Base
IMPACTS



30
  Southside



         Percent
of Lowell’s Customer Base




 After Closure



 ¼¾
of Southside customers lost
                              Since July 22nd, a full 1/3 of those South Lexington
                              and Nicholasville customers have evaporated
IMPACTS



30
  Southside



         Percent
of Lowell’s Customer Base




 After Closure



 ¼¾
of Southside customers lost
                              Zero drop in rest of customer base
If Lowell’s lost 10% of customers following South Lime closure…



  What is the impact to
   all of downtown?
TRAFFIC




South Broadway
  36,000



                 South Limestone
                   25,000
TRAFFIC




South Broadway
  61,000
TRAFFIC

                 West Main
                 19,000




South Broadway
  61,000
TRAFFIC

                                      West Main
                                      19,000
Old Frankfort Pike
    7,000




                     South Broadway
                       61,000
TRAFFIC

                                             West Main
                                             19,000
Old Frankfort Pike   Over 90,000 vehicles
    7,000             in disrupted traffic
                            patterns

                      20% of all drivers
                          South Broadway
                            61,000
TRAFFIC


  True Costs of Traffic
45 mins = 5% of waking hours
TRAFFIC


                                              True Costs of Traffic
                                           45 mins = 5% of waking hours




       Retail                Office             Service             Quality of Life




Not buying at stores or   Not working or   Not delivering goods   Not spending time with
     restaurants            producing          and services         family and friends
TRUE COST




11                      -5
Lexington             Downtown                  Impact
$
        Billion
    Size of Economy
                      8        %
                      of Local Economy
                                                           %
                                          Hit to Downtown Businesses




       $
TRUE COST




11                                     -5
Lexington                          Downtown                                       Impact
$
        Billion
    Size of Economy
                                     8          %
                                     of Local Economy                   Hit to Downtown Businesses
                                                                                                   %



                               Business Costs
                       $
                        84 to 92                    $
                                                         Million
                      Lost Business Attributable to South Lime Closure




                                                               A 2x economic multiplier assumed for loss calculations
TRUE COST
         Business Costs
 $
   84 to 92                   $
                                   Million
Lost Business Attributable to South Lime Closure
TRUE COST
         Business Costs
 $
   84 to 92                   $
                                   Million
Lost Business Attributable to South Lime Closure




 360,000
 $
                                   per Day
TRUE COST
           Business Costs
   $
     84 to 92                   $
                                     Million
  Lost Business Attributable to South Lime Closure




700 to 1,000+                                        Jobs
TRUE COST
             Business Costs
     $
       84 to 92                   $
                                       Million
    Lost Business Attributable to South Lime Closure


               Project Costs

9 or 13 or 15 or 17
$        $                    $

               Direct Construction Costs
                                                   $
                                                       Million
TRUE COST
                 Business Costs
         $
           84 to 92                   $
                                           Million
        Lost Business Attributable to South Lime Closure


                   Project Costs

9 or 13 or 15 or 17
$            $                    $

                   Direct Construction Costs
                                                       $
                                                           Million

                   Total Costs

    90 to 110
    $                                 $
                                                Million
When will a beautified
South Limestone return
 $100 million or 1,000
  jobs to Lexington’s
      economy?
A QUESTION


“Are these numbers right?”
A QUESTION


“AreWrong Question
    these numbers right?”
A BETTER QUESTION


       Right Question:

 “How did we let ourselves vote for
such economic devastation without
   any idea of the true impacts?”
TWITTER TRAFFIC
TRUE COST




    3                                       2
Business Owners                        Walking Tour


              Weeks                                      Weeks
Since businesses pleaded for help   Since you saw devastation first-hand




                                           A 2x economic multiplier assumed for loss calculations
TRUE COST




      3                                       2
  Business Owners                        Walking Tour


                Weeks                                      Weeks
  Since businesses pleaded for help   Since you saw devastation first-hand




 When will LFUCG address
$100 million hole in our city?
                                             A 2x economic multiplier assumed for loss calculations
South Limestone:
   What to do
SEEDS TO SOLUTION


Commissioner Webb & Project Manager Milligan
  have already identified how to accelerate the
        completion of South Limestone.

        They just aren’t willing to do so.
SEEDS TO SOLUTION


Ask for more people / effort from utilities


Ask cement company to stay open past 5PM


Deal with noise ordinances
SEEDS TO SOLUTION


Uncomfortable / effort from utilities
  Ask for more people

Uncomfortable to stay open past 5PM
  Ask cement company

Uncomfortable
  Deal with noise ordinances
$100 million is at stake.

1000 jobs are at stake.
$100 million is at stake.

 1000 jobs are at stake.

Get over your discomfort.
Cheapside | Vine | Main:
      What to do
SEEDS TO SOLUTION



Give “full faith and credit” to no one.
SEEDS TO SOLUTION



Give “full faith and credit” to no one.


Only trust detailed plans of execution.
PRETTY PICTURES
PRETTY PICTURES




The problem?
PRETTY PICTURES




    The problem?

This isn’t South Lime…
PRETTY PICTURES

Non-Existent Buildings
    & Storefronts




       Gleaming Marble
          Sidewalks?
REALITY
REALITY
PRETTY PICTURES
PRETTY PICTURES




Without detailed plans of execution,
         it’s just a picture
KEY QUESTIONS
• Could all three streets, as with South Limestone, be completely closed?
• Which sections of which streets will be closed? For what periods? What is the
  planned sequence of closures?
• When can each business on the affected streets expect their businesses to be
  interrupted?
• How long will such business interruptions last? What will those interruptions
  look like? Where will they be most severe?
• How can we accelerate the project where business interruptions will be most
  profound?
• Can we sequence closures around business cycles? Could retailers be least
  affected during the holiday shopping season? Could work near outdoor cafés be
  completed by spring?
• How will the city or DDA assist businesses during the closures? How will such
  assistance be more effective than what was done for South Limestone? Targeted
  ad campaigns? Special events? Shuttle services from parking garages?
• Will drivers need to find alternate routes (as with South Limestone)?
• What are the likely sources of project delay? How will those be mitigated?
SIGNS OF FAILURE
                        Lack of Detail




If they can’t provide step-
 by-step sequence of how
 the project will unfold…
SIGNS OF FAILURE
                        Lack of Detail




If they can’t provide step-

                       Fail
 by-step sequence of how
 the project will unfold…
SIGNS OF FAILURE
               Economic Impact Estimate




If they can’t provide an
   estimate of the true
  economic disruption
    caused by the new
      streetscapes…
SIGNS OF FAILURE
               Economic Impact Estimate




If they can’t provide an
   estimate of the true


                    Fail
  economic disruption
    caused by the new
      streetscapes…
SIGNS OF FAILURE
Pretty Pictures
SIGNS OF FAILURE
Pretty Pictures




Fail
SIGNS OF FAILURE
        Vague Assurances




“We’ll take care not to
 disrupt businesses…”
SIGNS OF FAILURE
Vague Assurances
SIGNS OF FAILURE
Vague Assurances




 Fail
SIGNS OF FAILURE



    Lack of Detail
No Economic Estimates
    Pretty Pictures
  Vague Assurances
Downtown Streets Project Impacts

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Downtown Streets Project Impacts

  • 1.
  • 2. ANECDOTES Customers complaints from customers about traffic • Increasing (especially after High Street intersection closed) • One older customer gave up after attempting a trial run Other Businesses • South Limestone businesses closing, letting employees go • Similar business: Sales “fell off a cliff” in August & September • Festival Market business owner / customer: “Business sucks”
  • 3. Two Questions: How many of our customers come from South Lexington? How has that changed since South Limestone closure?
  • 4. IMPACTS 40504 40513 40503 40514 40517 40356
  • 5. IMPACTS 30 Southside Percent of Lowell’s Customer Base
  • 6. IMPACTS 30 Southside Percent of Lowell’s Customer Base
  • 7. IMPACTS 30 Southside Percent of Lowell’s Customer Base After Closure ¼¾ of Southside customers lost Since July 22nd, a full 1/3 of those South Lexington and Nicholasville customers have evaporated
  • 8. IMPACTS 30 Southside Percent of Lowell’s Customer Base After Closure ¼¾ of Southside customers lost Zero drop in rest of customer base
  • 9. If Lowell’s lost 10% of customers following South Lime closure… What is the impact to all of downtown?
  • 10. TRAFFIC South Broadway 36,000 South Limestone 25,000
  • 12. TRAFFIC West Main 19,000 South Broadway 61,000
  • 13. TRAFFIC West Main 19,000 Old Frankfort Pike 7,000 South Broadway 61,000
  • 14. TRAFFIC West Main 19,000 Old Frankfort Pike Over 90,000 vehicles 7,000 in disrupted traffic patterns 20% of all drivers South Broadway 61,000
  • 15. TRAFFIC True Costs of Traffic 45 mins = 5% of waking hours
  • 16. TRAFFIC True Costs of Traffic 45 mins = 5% of waking hours Retail Office Service Quality of Life Not buying at stores or Not working or Not delivering goods Not spending time with restaurants producing and services family and friends
  • 17. TRUE COST 11 -5 Lexington Downtown Impact $ Billion Size of Economy 8 % of Local Economy % Hit to Downtown Businesses $
  • 18. TRUE COST 11 -5 Lexington Downtown Impact $ Billion Size of Economy 8 % of Local Economy Hit to Downtown Businesses % Business Costs $ 84 to 92 $ Million Lost Business Attributable to South Lime Closure A 2x economic multiplier assumed for loss calculations
  • 19. TRUE COST Business Costs $ 84 to 92 $ Million Lost Business Attributable to South Lime Closure
  • 20. TRUE COST Business Costs $ 84 to 92 $ Million Lost Business Attributable to South Lime Closure 360,000 $ per Day
  • 21. TRUE COST Business Costs $ 84 to 92 $ Million Lost Business Attributable to South Lime Closure 700 to 1,000+ Jobs
  • 22. TRUE COST Business Costs $ 84 to 92 $ Million Lost Business Attributable to South Lime Closure Project Costs 9 or 13 or 15 or 17 $ $ $ Direct Construction Costs $ Million
  • 23. TRUE COST Business Costs $ 84 to 92 $ Million Lost Business Attributable to South Lime Closure Project Costs 9 or 13 or 15 or 17 $ $ $ Direct Construction Costs $ Million Total Costs 90 to 110 $ $ Million
  • 24. When will a beautified South Limestone return $100 million or 1,000 jobs to Lexington’s economy?
  • 25. A QUESTION “Are these numbers right?”
  • 26. A QUESTION “AreWrong Question these numbers right?”
  • 27. A BETTER QUESTION Right Question: “How did we let ourselves vote for such economic devastation without any idea of the true impacts?”
  • 29. TRUE COST 3 2 Business Owners Walking Tour Weeks Weeks Since businesses pleaded for help Since you saw devastation first-hand A 2x economic multiplier assumed for loss calculations
  • 30. TRUE COST 3 2 Business Owners Walking Tour Weeks Weeks Since businesses pleaded for help Since you saw devastation first-hand When will LFUCG address $100 million hole in our city? A 2x economic multiplier assumed for loss calculations
  • 31. South Limestone: What to do
  • 32. SEEDS TO SOLUTION Commissioner Webb & Project Manager Milligan have already identified how to accelerate the completion of South Limestone. They just aren’t willing to do so.
  • 33. SEEDS TO SOLUTION Ask for more people / effort from utilities Ask cement company to stay open past 5PM Deal with noise ordinances
  • 34. SEEDS TO SOLUTION Uncomfortable / effort from utilities Ask for more people Uncomfortable to stay open past 5PM Ask cement company Uncomfortable Deal with noise ordinances
  • 35. $100 million is at stake. 1000 jobs are at stake.
  • 36. $100 million is at stake. 1000 jobs are at stake. Get over your discomfort.
  • 37. Cheapside | Vine | Main: What to do
  • 38. SEEDS TO SOLUTION Give “full faith and credit” to no one.
  • 39. SEEDS TO SOLUTION Give “full faith and credit” to no one. Only trust detailed plans of execution.
  • 42. PRETTY PICTURES The problem? This isn’t South Lime…
  • 43. PRETTY PICTURES Non-Existent Buildings & Storefronts Gleaming Marble Sidewalks?
  • 47. PRETTY PICTURES Without detailed plans of execution, it’s just a picture
  • 48. KEY QUESTIONS • Could all three streets, as with South Limestone, be completely closed? • Which sections of which streets will be closed? For what periods? What is the planned sequence of closures? • When can each business on the affected streets expect their businesses to be interrupted? • How long will such business interruptions last? What will those interruptions look like? Where will they be most severe? • How can we accelerate the project where business interruptions will be most profound? • Can we sequence closures around business cycles? Could retailers be least affected during the holiday shopping season? Could work near outdoor cafés be completed by spring? • How will the city or DDA assist businesses during the closures? How will such assistance be more effective than what was done for South Limestone? Targeted ad campaigns? Special events? Shuttle services from parking garages? • Will drivers need to find alternate routes (as with South Limestone)? • What are the likely sources of project delay? How will those be mitigated?
  • 49. SIGNS OF FAILURE Lack of Detail If they can’t provide step- by-step sequence of how the project will unfold…
  • 50. SIGNS OF FAILURE Lack of Detail If they can’t provide step- Fail by-step sequence of how the project will unfold…
  • 51. SIGNS OF FAILURE Economic Impact Estimate If they can’t provide an estimate of the true economic disruption caused by the new streetscapes…
  • 52. SIGNS OF FAILURE Economic Impact Estimate If they can’t provide an estimate of the true Fail economic disruption caused by the new streetscapes…
  • 54. SIGNS OF FAILURE Pretty Pictures Fail
  • 55. SIGNS OF FAILURE Vague Assurances “We’ll take care not to disrupt businesses…”
  • 57. SIGNS OF FAILURE Vague Assurances Fail
  • 58. SIGNS OF FAILURE Lack of Detail No Economic Estimates Pretty Pictures Vague Assurances