1.
ozymandias, 2013

2.
1. renter nation

3.
Renters: +3.6M
Owners: -2.8M
2010 Census

4.
Why Renter Nation is the New Normal

5.
Basic Math, FY 2012
Tax Revenues $2.469 trillion
minus
Interest on Debt $360 billion
Mandatory Spending $2.525 trillion
Total $2.885 trillion
equals
Shortfall -$416 billion

6.
Discretionary Spending

7.
Discretionary Spending

8.
Federal spending on real estate?
Discretionary Spending

9.
Our Elites Have Lost Faith

10.
“Sustainable Homeownership”

11.
MID
QRM
FHA
WTF

12.
MID vs. Medicare
QRM vs. Social Security
FHA vs. Section 8
NAR vs. Public Unions

13.
2.8% turnout rate

14.
Fight with Money?
Source: OpenSecrets.org

15.
“the commission recommends consideration of
further modifications to federal tax incentives
for homeownership to allow for an increase in
the level of support provided to affordable rental
housing”

16.
let’s not forget our states and cities...

17.
Property Taxes vs. Police Protection

18.
Yes, but... The Fed!

19.
The Fed will ownmarketthan2014... of the
entire mortgage more by a third
and... two-thirds of the entire bond
market with maturity over 5 years

20.
this ride will come to an end

21.
Renter Nation is the New Normal

22.
Ah, but Millennials Are Coming!

23.
2. generation screwed

24.
Sure am glad
I studied
Business and
Italian in
college!

25.
40%
source: prosumer-report.com - http://www.prosumer-report.com/blog/2012/03/12/moneyless-millennials-and-their-new-lives-of-financial-dependence/

26.
NY FED ON STUDENT LOANS

27.
“My debt is crushing my chances
of purchasing a home.”

28.
one of three
source: prosumer-report.com - http://www.prosumer-report.com/blog/2012/03/12/moneyless-millennials-and-their-new-lives-of-financial-dependence/

29.
pent-up demand?

30.
I can afford rent, but the dream of owning a home has become
just as ludicrous as the one where I win the Olympic Gold Medal
for figure skating. At 29, I no longer see home ownership as an
option. I no longer see anything but renting in my future, and the
only possibility is that one day I will be able to rent a home and
pretend a little better than I do in this one bedroom apartment.
— Jennie Fernandez, 29
Albuquerque, N.M

31.
10 years ago, Steve Jobs, Johnny Cash,
and Bob Hope were still alive.

32.
X X X
Today, we have no Jobs, no Cash, and no Hope

33.
What about the ones who are buying?
What are they like?

34.
The Elite Professional Class

35.
So what do these
elite young professionals
think of real estate agents?

36.
HearItDirectQuickTime™ and a California
Southern
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
AUDIO #2

37.
Ah, but... Family Formation!

38.
60 / 40

39.
“In one Manhattan ZIP code, for
example, women account for
63 percent of 22-year-olds.”

40.
Really?

41.
Conclusions & Even More Questions:
Knowns:
• Government support for real estate simply cannot last
• Elites have turned against homeownership
• Gen-Y Will Not Save Housing
• Real Estate Agent: Loss of Value
• REALTORS(R) Can’t Win the Fight Over Pie
Unknowns:
• Will Europe hold up? Will China?
• How will new laws, new taxes, & new regulations affect employment?
Black Swan Events:
• Open warfare
• Currency Collapse
• Zombies

42.
so... what do we do about this?

43.
towards a solution

44.
QuickTime™ and a
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Gov. Chris Christie, February 16, 2011

45.
“Our calling for greatness at this
time, is to confront these issues,
say them out loud, stop playing
around, and not waste another
minute.”

46.
associations: reality check

47.
#1 reason for joining?
Access to the MLS

48.
World Without MLS

49.
crisis of identity
crisis of purpose

50.
Three Identities of Associations
consumerist unionist activist
members are members are members are
buyers workers activists
products and income
political power
services protection
competitors loss of franchise apathy

51.
few love you
most don’t care about you
some hate you

52.
radical solutions for radical times

53.
political action
political action
political action

54.
old and busted

55.
The New Hotness

56.
precinct by precinct
empowering the local activist

57.
your greatest asset:
members who are social

58.
average: 190 friends
median: 100 friends

59.
grassroots movement
members as precinct captains
leverage social connections
influence homeowners

60.
member

61.
member

62.
consequences:
intend to lose people
smaller, more focused, more engaged
divest non-essential operations
change in governance

63.
If not now, then when?
If not us, then who?
- Hillel the Elder

64.
Questions?
Comments?

65.
rhahn@7dsassociates.com
@robhahn
973.869.9357