1.
ozymandias, 2013

2.
1. renter nation

3.
Renters: +3.6MOwners: -2.8M 2010 Census

4.
Why Renter Nation is the New Normal

5.
Basic Math, FY 2012 Tax Revenues $2.469 trillion minus Interest on Debt $360 billionMandatory Spending $2.525 trillion Total $2.885 trillion equals Shortfall -$416 billion

6.
Discretionary Spending

7.
Discretionary Spending

8.
Federal spending on real estate? Discretionary Spending

9.
Our Elites Have Lost Faith

10.
“Sustainable Homeownership”

11.
MIDQRMFHAWTF

12.
MID vs. MedicareQRM vs. Social Security FHA vs. Section 8 NAR vs. Public Unions

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2.8% turnout rate

14.
Fight with Money? Source: OpenSecrets.org

15.
“the commission recommends consideration offurther modifications to federal tax incentivesfor homeownership to allow for an increase inthe level of support provided to affordable rentalhousing”

16.
let’s not forget our states and cities...

17.
Property Taxes vs. Police Protection

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Yes, but... The Fed!

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The Fed will ownmarketthan2014... of theentire mortgage more by a thirdand... two-thirds of the entire bondmarket with maturity over 5 years

20.
this ride will come to an end

21.
Renter Nation is the New Normal

22.
Ah, but Millennials Are Coming!

23.
2. generation screwed

24.
Sure am glad I studiedBusiness and Italian in college!

25.
40%source: prosumer-report.com - http://www.prosumer-report.com/blog/2012/03/12/moneyless-millennials-and-their-new-lives-of-financial-dependence/

26.
NY FED ON STUDENT LOANS

27.
“My debt is crushing my chancesof purchasing a home.”

28.
one of threesource: prosumer-report.com - http://www.prosumer-report.com/blog/2012/03/12/moneyless-millennials-and-their-new-lives-of-financial-dependence/

29.
pent-up demand?

30.
I can afford rent, but the dream of owning a home has becomejust as ludicrous as the one where I win the Olympic Gold Medalfor figure skating. At 29, I no longer see home ownership as anoption. I no longer see anything but renting in my future, and theonly possibility is that one day I will be able to rent a home andpretend a little better than I do in this one bedroom apartment. — Jennie Fernandez, 29 Albuquerque, N.M

31.
10 years ago, Steve Jobs, Johnny Cash, and Bob Hope were still alive.

32.
X X XToday, we have no Jobs, no Cash, and no Hope

33.
What about the ones who are buying? What are they like?

34.
The Elite Professional Class

35.
So what do these elite young professionalsthink of real estate agents?

36.
HearItDirectQuickTime™ and a California Southern decompressor are needed to see this picture. AUDIO #2

37.
Ah, but... Family Formation!

38.
60 / 40

39.
“In one Manhattan ZIP code, forexample, women account for63 percent of 22-year-olds.”

40.
Really?

41.
Conclusions & Even More Questions:Knowns:• Government support for real estate simply cannot last• Elites have turned against homeownership• Gen-Y Will Not Save Housing• Real Estate Agent: Loss of Value• REALTORS(R) Can’t Win the Fight Over PieUnknowns:• Will Europe hold up? Will China?• How will new laws, new taxes, & new regulations affect employment?Black Swan Events:• Open warfare• Currency Collapse• Zombies

42.
so... what do we do about this?

43.
towards a solution

44.
QuickTime™ and a decompressor are needed to see this picture.Gov. Chris Christie, February 16, 2011

45.
“Our calling for greatness at thistime, is to confront these issues,say them out loud, stop playingaround, and not waste anotherminute.”

46.
associations: reality check

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#1 reason for joining? Access to the MLS

48.
World Without MLS

49.
crisis of identitycrisis of purpose

50.
Three Identities of Associationsconsumerist unionist activistmembers are members are members are buyers workers activistsproducts and income political power services protectioncompetitors loss of franchise apathy

51.
few love youmost don’t care about you some hate you

52.
radical solutions for radical times

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political actionpolitical actionpolitical action

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old and busted

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The New Hotness

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precinct by precinctempowering the local activist

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your greatest asset:members who are social

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average: 190 friendsmedian: 100 friends

59.
grassroots movementmembers as precinct captainsleverage social connectionsinfluence homeowners

60.
member

61.
member

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consequences: intend to lose peoplesmaller, more focused, more engaged divest non-essential operations change in governance

63.
If not now, then when? If not us, then who? - Hillel the Elder

64.
Questions?Comments?

65.
rhahn@7dsassociates.com @robhahn 973.869.9357