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Ozymandias 2013 AEI 1.1

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Presentation to the NAR Association Executives Institute meeting of 2013.

Published in: Business
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Ozymandias 2013 AEI 1.1

  1. 1. ozymandias, 2013
  2. 2. 1. renter nation
  3. 3. Renters: +3.6MOwners: -2.8M 2010 Census
  4. 4. Why Renter Nation is the New Normal
  5. 5. Basic Math, FY 2012 Tax Revenues $2.469 trillion minus Interest on Debt $360 billionMandatory Spending $2.525 trillion Total $2.885 trillion equals Shortfall -$416 billion
  6. 6. Discretionary Spending
  7. 7. Discretionary Spending
  8. 8. Federal spending on real estate? Discretionary Spending
  9. 9. Our Elites Have Lost Faith
  10. 10. “Sustainable Homeownership”
  11. 11. MIDQRMFHAWTF
  12. 12. MID vs. MedicareQRM vs. Social Security FHA vs. Section 8 NAR vs. Public Unions
  13. 13. 2.8% turnout rate
  14. 14. Fight with Money? Source: OpenSecrets.org
  15. 15. “the commission recommends consideration offurther modifications to federal tax incentivesfor homeownership to allow for an increase inthe level of support provided to affordable rentalhousing”
  16. 16. let’s not forget our states and cities...
  17. 17. Property Taxes vs. Police Protection
  18. 18. Yes, but... The Fed!
  19. 19. The Fed will ownmarketthan2014... of theentire mortgage more by a thirdand... two-thirds of the entire bondmarket with maturity over 5 years
  20. 20. this ride will come to an end
  21. 21. Renter Nation is the New Normal
  22. 22. Ah, but Millennials Are Coming!
  23. 23. 2. generation screwed
  24. 24. Sure am glad I studiedBusiness and Italian in college!
  25. 25. 40%source: prosumer-report.com - http://www.prosumer-report.com/blog/2012/03/12/moneyless-millennials-and-their-new-lives-of-financial-dependence/
  26. 26. NY FED ON STUDENT LOANS
  27. 27. “My debt is crushing my chancesof purchasing a home.”
  28. 28. one of threesource: prosumer-report.com - http://www.prosumer-report.com/blog/2012/03/12/moneyless-millennials-and-their-new-lives-of-financial-dependence/
  29. 29. pent-up demand?
  30. 30. I can afford rent, but the dream of owning a home has becomejust as ludicrous as the one where I win the Olympic Gold Medalfor figure skating. At 29, I no longer see home ownership as anoption. I no longer see anything but renting in my future, and theonly possibility is that one day I will be able to rent a home andpretend a little better than I do in this one bedroom apartment. — Jennie Fernandez, 29 Albuquerque, N.M
  31. 31. 10 years ago, Steve Jobs, Johnny Cash, and Bob Hope were still alive.
  32. 32. X X XToday, we have no Jobs, no Cash, and no Hope
  33. 33. What about the ones who are buying? What are they like?
  34. 34. The Elite Professional Class
  35. 35. So what do these elite young professionalsthink of real estate agents?
  36. 36. HearItDirectQuickTime™ and a California Southern decompressor are needed to see this picture. AUDIO #2
  37. 37. Ah, but... Family Formation!
  38. 38. 60 / 40
  39. 39. “In one Manhattan ZIP code, forexample, women account for63 percent of 22-year-olds.”
  40. 40. Really?
  41. 41. Conclusions & Even More Questions:Knowns:• Government support for real estate simply cannot last• Elites have turned against homeownership• Gen-Y Will Not Save Housing• Real Estate Agent: Loss of Value• REALTORS(R) Can’t Win the Fight Over PieUnknowns:• Will Europe hold up? Will China?• How will new laws, new taxes, & new regulations affect employment?Black Swan Events:• Open warfare• Currency Collapse• Zombies
  42. 42. so... what do we do about this?
  43. 43. towards a solution
  44. 44. QuickTime™ and a decompressor are needed to see this picture.Gov. Chris Christie, February 16, 2011
  45. 45. “Our calling for greatness at thistime, is to confront these issues,say them out loud, stop playingaround, and not waste anotherminute.”
  46. 46. associations: reality check
  47. 47. #1 reason for joining? Access to the MLS
  48. 48. World Without MLS
  49. 49. crisis of identitycrisis of purpose
  50. 50. Three Identities of Associationsconsumerist unionist activistmembers are members are members are buyers workers activistsproducts and income political power services protectioncompetitors loss of franchise apathy
  51. 51. few love youmost don’t care about you some hate you
  52. 52. radical solutions for radical times
  53. 53. political actionpolitical actionpolitical action
  54. 54. old and busted
  55. 55. The New Hotness
  56. 56. precinct by precinctempowering the local activist
  57. 57. your greatest asset:members who are social
  58. 58. average: 190 friendsmedian: 100 friends
  59. 59. grassroots movementmembers as precinct captainsleverage social connectionsinfluence homeowners
  60. 60. member
  61. 61. member
  62. 62. consequences: intend to lose peoplesmaller, more focused, more engaged divest non-essential operations change in governance
  63. 63. If not now, then when? If not us, then who? - Hillel the Elder
  64. 64. Questions?Comments?
  65. 65. rhahn@7dsassociates.com @robhahn 973.869.9357

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